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Red Sox sign Liam Hendriks
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Post by soxfanatic on Feb 19, 2024 10:02:37 GMT -5
Heck of a deal in a market where Wandy Peralta is getting 4 years. Between Paxton coming back last year for less and this signing I'm assuming the Sox medical and rehabilitation staff must be viewed pretty positively throughout the league. Also Michael Fulmer and Wyatt Mills
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 19, 2024 10:03:43 GMT -5
August TJS means he's not gonna contribute this season. Basically a 1/10 contract for 2025, which seems like a good enough deal. He was an absolute monster before he ran into his misfortune. Especially since his base AAV is only $5 million next year! Not that I know what spending will look like next year, but it should help free up cash for spending elsewhere to have a closer of Hendriks' caliber on what will at that point be a 1/5 deal plus incentives. I don't think we can count him out for 2024 either. His recovery timeline is 12-14 months, per Ian Browne's article about the signing. Feels like not playing at all in 2024 is a real possibility, but he could potentially be back down the stretch. And this isn't the kind of guy I'll count out early.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 19, 2024 10:04:22 GMT -5
Very Paxton-esque signing, love when the FO does this sort of thing. I wouldn’t mind something similar but maybe incentive-heavier with Woodruff though I know his injury is a longer shot.
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alnipper
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Living the dream
Posts: 638
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Post by alnipper on Feb 19, 2024 10:05:50 GMT -5
The Sox can make this type of sign, because they aren't contending this year(barring a miracle).
The timeline for coming back from TJS is 9 months to never.
We all hope it is before the trade deadline.
Hendrick's may be our 2025 closer.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Feb 19, 2024 10:30:34 GMT -5
The objective for '24 seems to be clear, even if they won't say it:
See what we've got with the controllable in-house personnel, and try to sell high on everyone that isn't going to stick around for the next competitive push. This group includes Jansen/Martin.
It's easier to send out Jansen/Martin and watch them sign elsewhere in '25 knowing their potential successors are already in-house with Hendricks and Fulmer.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 19, 2024 10:34:14 GMT -5
The list of pitching additions grows to eight...
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Feb 19, 2024 10:44:08 GMT -5
Surprised to see such universal acclaim. I get the AAV is lower, but a 1yr/10M cash outlay for a 36 yrd old closer in 2025 signed a year early isn't that exciting to me.
His camp is optimistically talking about returning at the deadline - under a year from TJS! - but that seems like rehab happy talk. I would guess a realistic upside is 5-10 IP in Sept if the Sox don't need the 40 man roster spot and want to let him get back on a MLB mound before the off season. That wouldn't impact anything that the Sox do with Jansen and Martin at the deadline.
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Post by rhswanzey on Feb 19, 2024 10:48:19 GMT -5
Wondering if Hendriks may have been a Plan B pivot off of Woodruff. The two deals hit MLBTR an hour apart from one another.
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alnipper
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Living the dream
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Post by alnipper on Feb 19, 2024 10:50:56 GMT -5
Oh, Brewers signed Woodruff shortly after the Sox signed Hendrick. Interesting timing.
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Post by iakovos11 on Feb 19, 2024 11:04:01 GMT -5
Wondering if Hendriks may have been a Plan B pivot off of Woodruff. The two deals hit MLBTR an hour apart from one another. Ehh? Starter vs. reliever. I don't think so, but maybe they only would do one such contract regardless of starter vs reliever. Or maybe (more likely perhaps?) they prioritized Liam because TJ is more known. Woodruff had a should capsule injury, that's more risky/unkown I think. "This is a major procedure and capsule injuries in particular are worrisome. Many pitchers who have their capsule repaired returned as lesser versions of themselves. John Danks, Rich Harden, Mark Prior, and Johan Santana had their careers derailed by capsule surgery. That said, Julio Urías returned healthy and effective following his capsule surgery in July 2017." ~ www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/brandon-woodruff-injury-brewers-ace-undergoes-shoulder-surgery-likely-to-miss-all-of-2024-season/
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 19, 2024 12:32:09 GMT -5
Well, if they're getting the Hendriks of 2019 - 2022 back, that's a helluva move.
I can't say I'm expecting THAT Hendriks, but it's worth the gamble. It's not a move designed with 2024 in mind, which is fine. Sounds like the plan is to replace Jansen and Martin with Hendriks and Fullmer in 2025 although I'd hope they'd hedge their bets a little bit and obtain a good reliever not coming off a major injury by then.
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Post by keninten on Feb 19, 2024 12:34:55 GMT -5
CRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAIGGGGGGG! The Mad Australian.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,677
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Post by cdj on Feb 19, 2024 12:36:48 GMT -5
Just see what Balfour is up to so we can have Balfour and Hendriks acting like lunatics
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 19, 2024 12:37:27 GMT -5
I like it. Hopefully pans out well for 2025 when Jansen and Martin are likely both gone and the pen will need a guy like Hendricks. If he can even approach his 2022 self then he probably closes for them when Jansen is gone.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 19, 2024 13:01:47 GMT -5
Oh, Brewers signed Woodruff shortly after the Sox signed Hendrick. Interesting timing. It works much better for roster purposes now that spring training has started so that you can stash those guys right on the 60-day.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 19, 2024 14:06:36 GMT -5
Wondering if Hendriks may have been a Plan B pivot off of Woodruff. The two deals hit MLBTR an hour apart from one another. There were reports of Hendriks at Fenway South well before the signing rumors.
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 19, 2024 15:23:24 GMT -5
Let's say for the sake of argument that the Sox enter the year with their current roster. Let's say too that they get off to a good enough start to not sell at the deadline, that Hendriks achieves his goal of being back by the deadline, and that injury luck is good. An August bullpen could look like this: Kenley Jansen Liam Hendriks
Chris Martin Garrett Whitlock (I'd prefer Houck here and Whitlock starting, but SP.com and many projections systems seem to be betting on Houck as the likely #5) Josh Winckowski Brennan Bernardino Isaiah Campbell Justin Slaten (or Weissert, Jacques, Kelly, Mata, etc.; there's enough depth that whoever's in this spot is likely to be effective) Old timers weigh in - when's the last time the Sox had a bullpen this good? I'm pretty sure this would be the best I've seen in my lifetime. This would be like those NYY teams a few years ago where the game is over if they're leading after 6.
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 19, 2024 15:26:08 GMT -5
Let's say for the sake of argument that the Sox enter the year with their current roster. Let's say too that they get off to a good enough start to not sell at the deadline, that Hendriks achieves his goal of being back by the deadline, and that injury luck is good. An August bullpen could look like this: Kenley Jansen Chris Martin Liam Hendriks Garrett Whitlock (I'd prefer Houck here and Whitlock starting, but SP.com and ZiPS are both betting on Houck as the likely #5). Josh Winckowski Brennan Bernardino Isaiah Campbell Justin Slaten (or Weissert, Jacques, Kelly, Mata, etc.; there's enough depth that whoever's in this spot is likely to be effective) Old timers weigh in - when's the last time the Sox had a bullpen this good? I'm pretty sure this would be the best I've seen in my lifetime. This would be like those NYY teams a few years ago where the game is over if they're leading after 6. Thatd be pretty, pretty nice if it works out that way. Let's say theoretically it does, picking out one SP in particular it feels like Houck would benefit big time. He could go out pitch 5 and get a hard cutoff every game and probably win a good amount of his games in this scenario.
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Post by cmax on Feb 19, 2024 15:27:47 GMT -5
Really nice move. Smart way to add depth to the back end of the bullpen without taking up a 40 man roster spot before the trade deadline while we see what we have. Creates optionality to compete down the stretch if the team over-achieves like in 2021, and more likely, gives Breslow flexibility to trade from the surplus of quality bullpen arms at the deadline, which can lead to quality, controllable pitching, the team's biggest need. Love to see it, and in the meantime, Hendricks can be a good influence on the emerging arms of the Red Sox...
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Post by pappyman99 on Feb 19, 2024 15:29:50 GMT -5
I’m not an old timer but definitely good on paper. I can’t see Jansen and or Martin still being traded here though
In practice you don’t have to go back too far to find and elite top 4 pieces in a bullpen and that was 2013
Not sure how many people appreciate for that season particularly how dominant the quad of Koji, Miller, Tazawa, and ironically Breslow were in 2013
2024 definitely seems to have more quality depth
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 19, 2024 15:40:06 GMT -5
I’m not an old timer but definitely good on paper. I can’t see Jansen and or Martin still being traded here though In practice you don’t have to go back too far to find and elite top 4 pieces in a bullpen and that was 2013 Not sure how many people appreciate for that season particularly how dominant the quad of Koji, Miller, Tazawa, and ironically Breslow were in 2013 2024 definitely seems to have more quality depth Interestingly enough, the Sox were only 12th in reliever FIP in 2013. The back end was stellar - Koji in particular had an all-time great season, and we can't project anyone to reproduce that this year - but the depth must have been more shaky.
Another related question: which MLB pens in 2024 look as good or better? A healthy Hendriks and Whitlock would make me feel like there are four closer-caliber guys in the pen, which would be nuts.
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 19, 2024 15:45:25 GMT -5
I’m not an old timer but definitely good on paper. I can’t see Jansen and or Martin still being traded here though In practice you don’t have to go back too far to find and elite top 4 pieces in a bullpen and that was 2013 Not sure how many people appreciate for that season particularly how dominant the quad of Koji, Miller, Tazawa, and ironically Breslow were in 2013 2024 definitely seems to have more quality depth Interestingly enough, the Sox were only 12th in reliever FIP in 2013. The back end was stellar - Koji in particular had an all-time great season, and we can't project anyone to reproduce that this year - but the depth must have been more shaky.
Another related question: which MLB pens in 2024 look as good or better? A healthy Hendriks and Whitlock would make me feel like there are four closer-caliber guys in the pen, which would be nuts.
Imagine if they signed Montgomery and Houck got pushed to the pen. I think Houck has upside as an SP but he's been an absolute weapon out of the pen.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Feb 19, 2024 17:25:26 GMT -5
Low cost. Low risk. High reward.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 19, 2024 17:25:47 GMT -5
Can Hendriks be added to the 60 day IL immediately? He must first be placed on the 40-man roster (which is why the open roster spot is nice), but then can be removed and placed on the 60 day IL. Feb 14th was the first day for the 60 day IL. Technically they need to be giving the spot to someone else to put him on the 60-day, but consider the spot open because they can do it whenever at this point.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 19, 2024 17:54:23 GMT -5
Interestingly enough, the Sox were only 12th in reliever FIP in 2013. The back end was stellar - Koji in particular had an all-time great season, and we can't project anyone to reproduce that this year - but the depth must have been more shaky. Another related question: which MLB pens in 2024 look as good or better? A healthy Hendriks and Whitlock would make me feel like there are four closer-caliber guys in the pen, which would be nuts.
Imagine if they signed Montgomery and Houck got pushed to the pen. I think Houck has upside as an SP but he's been an absolute weapon out of the pen. I think the 2024 is still pretty suspect. Jansen, assuming he's still here, is hardly a dominating closer any more. He's good but I wouldn't say great. Martin should be very good but wont approach last year's nunbers. The key to the bullpen being strong is their ability to keep 2 out Houck, Winckowski and Whitlock out in the pen for the entirety of the year but that's where the thin depth in the rotation is likely to bite them as it's likely that at various extended stretches there will be a need to employ Whitlock, Houck, and perhaps even Winckowski in the rotation. My guess is that Whitlock has first crack at the rotation which leaves Houck, Criswell, and Winckowski as guys who start when rotation injuries inevitably hit, which would greatly thin out the high leverage bullpen depth. This is another reason why Montgomery would fit well. He'd increase the probability of keeping the backup rotation options in the bullpen. The rest of the pen after that is kind of a crapshoot. Bernardino earned that primary lefty spot but who knows if he repeats that success? At this point none of the other lefty options inspire. I like Luetke as their next best option, but after his disappointing season it's tough to know what to expect. I dont know that Weissert or Campbell or Slaten contribute as there is a limited track record of success. I am bullish on Campbell as their best bet. I dont think Mata will show enough control to stick. So there are question marks and probable regressions but there also stands to be a pleasant surprise or two as well. How good the pen is depends upon how much time at least 2 of Houck, Winckowski and Whitlock spend in the pen. I wouldn't say this is the best Sox pen I've ever seen. Not really close (off the top of my head their bullpens in 1982, 1989, 1995, 1998, 2007 despite Gagne were better, and I liked their pen in 04, 14, and 18. Hell I even liked their pen during a dismal 1993 season) at this point but you never know.
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