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Red Sox sign Liam Hendriks
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Post by sxfan on Feb 19, 2024 18:08:42 GMT -5
Don't want to detract too much, but the best bullpen belonged to the 2008 Red Sox.
You had prime Papelbon, Bard, Okajima, a young and upcoming Manny Delcarmen. They acquired a most likely future HOF in Billy Wagner in August, too.
It's a toss up which is the best Sox team to not win a world series between 2003 and 2008.
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 19, 2024 18:12:43 GMT -5
Imagine if they signed Montgomery and Houck got pushed to the pen. I think Houck has upside as an SP but he's been an absolute weapon out of the pen. I think the 2024 is still pretty suspect. Jansen, assuming he's still here, is hardly a dominating closer any more. He's good but I wouldn't say great. Martin should be very good but wont approach last year's nunbers. The key to the bullpen being strong is their ability to keep 2 out Houck, Winckowski and Whitlock out in the pen for the entirety of the year but that's where the thin depth in the rotation is likely to bite them as it's likely that at various extended stretches there will be a need to employ Whitlock, Houck, and perhaps even Winckowski in the rotation. My guess is that Whitlock has first crack at the rotation which leaves Houck, Criswell, and Winckowski as guys who start when rotation injuries inevitably hit, which would greatly thin out the high leverage bullpen depth. This is another reason why Montgomery would fit well. He'd increase the probability of keeping the backup rotation options in the bullpen. The rest of the pen after that is kind of a crapshoot. Bernardino earned that primary lefty spot but who knows if he repeats that success? At this point none of the other lefty options inspire. I like Luetke as their next best option, but after his disappointing season it's tough to know what to expect. I dont know that Weissert or Campbell or Slaten contribute as there is a limited track record of success. I am bullish on Campbell as their best bet. I dont think Mata will show enough control to stick. So there are question marks and probable regressions but there also stands to be a pleasant surprise or two as well. How good the pen is depends upon how much time at least 2 of Houck, Winckowski and Whitlock spend in the pen. I wouldn't say this is the best Sox pen I've ever seen. Not really close (off the top of my head their bullpens in 1982, 1989, 1995, 1998, 2007 despite Gagne were better, and I liked their pen in 04, 14, and 18. Hell I even liked their pen during a dismal 1993 season) at this point but you never know. That is all fair and I do agree with it. Mine was just a theoretical what if where basically everyone in the pen hits their highest projection which obviously isn't likely in the slightest but the possibility is there. If it somehow happened the sox are probably a playoff team. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 19, 2024 20:32:46 GMT -5
No matter what they do with Jansen/Martin, the key to the bullpen will be healthy starters.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Feb 19, 2024 20:48:11 GMT -5
Low cost. Low risk. High reward. I can't say this cost is low because this is the second highest contract we've given out this offseason. There is also some risk with a guy on the wrong side of thirty never returning to form and this deal ending up like Bobby Jenks. Best case, we have a late 2024 and 2025 closer on a $5MM AAV salary with the ability to trade Jansen on the deadline (best case). |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 20, 2024 5:46:08 GMT -5
Considering his age and TJ, set-up seems more likely.
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Post by bluechip on Feb 20, 2024 7:52:42 GMT -5
I really like the signing. He was pretty amazing prior to 2023. I would like to see one of the younger arms being developed into a high leverage bullpen/ closer role. All of their best relievers are at the tail ends of their careers.
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 20, 2024 9:01:11 GMT -5
Low cost. Low risk. High reward. I can't say this cost is low because this is the second highest contract we've given out this offseason. There is also some risk with a guy on the wrong side of thirty never returning to form and this deal ending up like Bobby Jenks. Best case, we have a late 2024 and 2025 closer on a $5MM AAV salary with the ability to trade Jansen on the deadline (best case). The previous second highest was 1/1, lol. By this logic nearly anyone making over the minimum is not on a low cost deal. $5 million is 2.1% of the tax limit; if you filled a 26-man roster with guys at this AAV, you would be $107 million below the tax line. Of course, he can hit $15 million in year two with incentives, but if he's hitting those incentives presumably he's pitching well enough to deserve it. 2/10 is all that matters when focusing on downside. Edit: The cost and total years being low inherently means low risk. Even if he doesn't come back and perform, oh well, it's only $5 million for 2025. |
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Post by 0ap0 on Feb 20, 2024 9:14:37 GMT -5
I really like the signing. He was pretty amazing prior to 2023. I would like to see one of the younger arms being developed into a high leverage bullpen/ closer role. All of their best relievers are at the tail ends of their careers. Yes, except for all of the young ones. |
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,595
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Post by asm18 on Feb 20, 2024 13:06:18 GMT -5
“I was told when I signed that the closer position would be open on July 31st”
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 20, 2024 15:59:28 GMT -5
Curious to see what those incentives look like. A little worried the deal is structured so that the Red Sox don't even get a good deal if he comes back and has a nice 2025.
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Post by puzzler on Feb 20, 2024 16:23:28 GMT -5
Curious to see what those incentives look like. A little worried the deal is structured so that the Red Sox don't even get a good deal if he comes back and has a nice 2025. From what I read, half are related to innings pitched and the other half are related to closing games. But financial 'worst' case scenario it is a 2 year/$18 million deal. I can only really see this being a bad deal if he basically doesn't pitch at all or pitches some and is not very good. If he's closing games successfully in 2025, it's basically Kenley Jansen's deal. |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 20, 2024 16:32:29 GMT -5
Curious to see what those incentives look like. A little worried the deal is structured so that the Red Sox don't even get a good deal if he comes back and has a nice 2025. He averaged 2.4 fWAR/season from 2019-2022 (and that's not even adjusting for 2020 games played), so I would hope that the incentives are more or less contingent on regaining that form, in which that's definitely fair value. |
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Post by Montana Lemonious-Craig on Feb 20, 2024 17:57:48 GMT -5
Don't want to detract too much, but the best bullpen belonged to the 2008 Red Sox. You had prime Papelbon, Bard, Okajima, a young and upcoming Manny Delcarmen. They acquired a most likely future HOF in Billy Wagner in August, too. It's a toss up which is the best Sox team to not win a world series between 2003 and 2008. Wagner was in 09. They also had Ramon Ramirez that season, who was pretty damn good IIRC. Feel like Okajima might have been falling off by that point |
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jimoh
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Posts: 4,138 
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Post by jimoh on Feb 20, 2024 20:13:33 GMT -5
Don't want to detract too much, but the best bullpen belonged to the 2008 Red Sox. You had prime Papelbon, Bard, Okajima, a young and upcoming Manny Delcarmen. They acquired a most likely future HOF in Billy Wagner in August, too. It's a toss up which is the best Sox team to not win a world series between 2003 and 2008. Wagner was in 09. They also had Ramon Ramirez that season, who was pretty damn good IIRC. Feel like Okajima might have been falling off by that point Wagner was only in 15 games but it was a brilliant trade because he brought us two supplemental first round picks when he left (they were duds, alas) |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 20, 2024 20:41:33 GMT -5
Wagner was in 09. They also had Ramon Ramirez that season, who was pretty damn good IIRC. Feel like Okajima might have been falling off by that point Wagner was only in 15 games but it was a brilliant trade because he brought us two supplemental first round picks when he left (they were duds, alas) I was glad they got him. Wished I could have seen him in a Red Sox uniform longer. I know the postseason problems are a part if his record but Billy Wagner should be a HOFer. I'd say he was top 3 in that era with Marisno #1 and you can make a good case for Wagner as number 2 and Hoffman #3. |
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Post by sxfan on Feb 20, 2024 22:16:12 GMT -5
Don't want to detract too much, but the best bullpen belonged to the 2008 Red Sox. You had prime Papelbon, Bard, Okajima, a young and upcoming Manny Delcarmen. They acquired a most likely future HOF in Billy Wagner in August, too. It's a toss up which is the best Sox team to not win a world series between 2003 and 2008. Wagner was in 09. They also had Ramon Ramirez that season, who was pretty damn good IIRC. Feel like Okajima might have been falling off by that point Wow wrong year I was thinking, thanks for the correction. That 2009 group was highly underrated, too. Victor Martinez was awesome. |
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Post by wOBA Fett on Feb 20, 2024 22:25:47 GMT -5
I can't say this cost is low because this is the second highest contract we've given out this offseason. There is also some risk with a guy on the wrong side of thirty never returning to form and this deal ending up like Bobby Jenks. Best case, we have a late 2024 and 2025 closer on a $5MM AAV salary with the ability to trade Jansen on the deadline (best case). The previous second highest was 1/1, lol. By this logic nearly anyone making over the minimum is not on a low cost deal. $5 million is 2.1% of the tax limit; if you filled a 26-man roster with guys at this AAV, you would be $107 million below the tax line. Of course, he can hit $15 million in year two with incentives, but if he's hitting those incentives presumably he's pitching well enough to deserve it. 2/10 is all that matters when focusing on downside. Edit: The cost and total years being low inherently means low risk. Even if he doesn't come back and perform, oh well, it's only $5 million for 2025. Also the 8th highest salary on the roster for the 2024 season. For a team as cost conscious as the Red Sox, $5MM to any player isn't what it used to be and all those "low risk" deals quickly add up when you aren't spending elsewhere. |
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Post by soxin8 on Feb 20, 2024 22:31:44 GMT -5
Wagner was in 09. They also had Ramon Ramirez that season, who was pretty damn good IIRC. Feel like Okajima might have been falling off by that point Wow wrong year I was thinking, thanks for the correction. That 2009 group was highly underrated, too. Victor Martinez was awesome. I remember Victor had a 25 game hitting streak that ended when he was given a day off but failed in a pinch hitting appearance. Something for Teel to shoot for. |
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 21, 2024 8:38:16 GMT -5
The previous second highest was 1/1, lol. By this logic nearly anyone making over the minimum is not on a low cost deal. $5 million is 2.1% of the tax limit; if you filled a 26-man roster with guys at this AAV, you would be $107 million below the tax line. Of course, he can hit $15 million in year two with incentives, but if he's hitting those incentives presumably he's pitching well enough to deserve it. 2/10 is all that matters when focusing on downside. Edit: The cost and total years being low inherently means low risk. Even if he doesn't come back and perform, oh well, it's only $5 million for 2025. Also the 8th highest salary on the roster for the 2024 season. For a team as cost conscious as the Red Sox, $5MM to any player isn't what it used to be and all those "low risk" deals quickly add up when you aren't spending elsewhere. The luxury tax payroll this year is currently ~92% of what it was last year. There has not been a transformation in the value of $5 million. |
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 21, 2024 14:16:44 GMT -5
Yeah, the risk/reward calculus on the Hendriks contract would not have been different if they'd also spent $150 million on Blake Snell.
Low-risk doesn't mean no risk. The risk is that he's broken and isn't worth the $10 million they spent on him. Given his upside and the success rate of the surgery... that's about as low risk as you're getting in this business.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,505
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Post by nomar on Feb 21, 2024 14:29:15 GMT -5
Yeah, the risk/reward calculus on the Hendriks contract would not have been different if they'd also spent $150 million on Blake Snell. Low-risk doesn't mean no risk. The risk is that he's broken and isn't worth the $10 million they spent on him. Given his upside and the success rate of the surgery... that's about as low risk as you're getting in this business. Totally agreed. Also I think given the abundance of young players on the team, it is really nice to have a veteran like Hendricks around, especially with other vets likely on the trade block. I am personally of the belief that wins and losses are the primary drivers to chemistry, but it’s hard to establish a good culture with a ton of young guys on a team that has finished last two years running. |
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Post by bentossaurus on Feb 21, 2024 15:08:24 GMT -5
One thing is for sure, all those youngsters are gonna learn more vernacular Australian than they ever thought of.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,595
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Post by asm18 on Jun 26, 2024 15:13:15 GMT -5
Liam Hendriks threw his first bullpen today. Some quotes:
How does his arm feel? “Attached.”
He threw 15 fastballs. “I’m the only guy in here throwing fastballs.”
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Post by nonothing on Jun 26, 2024 19:47:26 GMT -5
Liam Hendriks threw his first bullpen today. Some quotes: How does his arm feel? “Attached.” He threw 15 fastballs. “I’m the only guy in here throwing fastballs.” I hope he comes back great. Would be the best kind of feel good story for everyone. |
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,595
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Post by asm18 on Jul 31, 2024 12:11:28 GMT -5
“Liam Hendriks threw a 35 pitch bullpen yesterday with fastballs, changes & breaking balls. His surgery was a year ago Friday. He’s going to Texas to meet with his surgeon and hoping to get cleared by him to start facing hitters. He’s been throwing two bullpens a week for a month” - Jen McCaffrey
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