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Post by itinerantherb on Mar 7, 2024 12:45:23 GMT -5
If it does kick in this year, that's a pretty nice deal for Bello. If you guestimate that he would of earned around $30M in his arb years (which seems generous), that's $25M for the first free agent year. Accounting for inflation both in arb awards and SP contracts, it's probably about right.
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Mar 7, 2024 12:45:34 GMT -5
This seems like a really good deal for the team. Basically just ensured that Bello's entire prime is spent in Boston, and it maxes out at $76 million over 7 years? Beautiful bit of business.
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 7, 2024 12:45:44 GMT -5
Wow Red Sox Payroll Twitter account is fast! They've already put Bello to $9.16 AAV. That puts their projected LT # at $214.07M, 22.93 under the LT threshold.
I'd given up on Montgomery for the most part but I think this might close the door on that completely. They aren't going over the LT, I suppose they could still carve out some more room if they really wanted Montgomery but don't see it happen and personally I won't be entertaining the possibility in my head anymore.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Mar 7, 2024 12:45:51 GMT -5
You dream big on Bello and get reminiscent of wishing we locked up Bogaerts longer when he was in his 30’s and hit free agency. Honestly, I like that model a lot better on the pitching side of things.
I’m a fan of this deal.
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Post by scottysmalls on Mar 7, 2024 12:46:03 GMT -5
Deal checks out. You assume roughly 5/35 is what he would have gotten if things go relatively well. So you get 1 free agent year for $20m, which is likely but not certainly a discount, and the option for another for $21m in exchange for guaranteeing that 5/35.
It also totally makes sense both based on his background and his position that Bello would be more interested in this deal than Casas.
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Post by bishop on Mar 7, 2024 12:48:32 GMT -5
Would have liked another club option but sounds fair, happy to get one contract done.
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Post by briam on Mar 7, 2024 12:50:18 GMT -5
Deal checks out. You assume roughly 5/35 is what he would have gotten if things go relatively well. So you get 1 free agent year for $20m, which is likely but not certainly a discount, and the option for another for $21m in exchange for guaranteeing that 5/35. It also totally makes sense both based on his background and his position that Bello would be more interested in this deal than Casas. With how few players are hitting FA due to these type of extensions, $20 million will probably be a bargain for a FA starter in 2030 and 31.
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 7, 2024 12:50:55 GMT -5
Don't think this is better than going year to year but not a big deal either way. Happy Bello is rich as hell and hope he makes some all star teams.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 7, 2024 12:51:58 GMT -5
If you don't give a fair contract extension to your young, healthy ace then I don't know who you give an extension to. It's not like they have a plethora of young pitchers to choose from.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 7, 2024 12:52:04 GMT -5
Another benefit of this deal (and any potential Casas deal) in my head is that, assuming you get the expected influx of cheap talent that is sitting at the top of the prospect rankings, having relatively moderate fixed costs allows you more flexibility when pursuing big fish in a year or two, because you're now less worried about high AAV extensions for your own guys in the near term. Key word in my head, because I'm still just kind of dipping my toes into the contract side of things.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 7, 2024 12:52:56 GMT -5
Deal checks out. You assume roughly 5/35 is what he would have gotten if things go relatively well. So you get 1 free agent year for $20m, which is likely but not certainly a discount, and the option for another for $21m in exchange for guaranteeing that 5/35. It also totally makes sense both based on his background and his position that Bello would be more interested in this deal than Casas. With how few players are hitting FA due to these type of extensions, $20 million will probably be a bargain for a FA starter in 2030 and 31. Yeah I mean you can point to the Giolito contract as a pretty good argument that it's not an insane amount to assume he'd be worth at that point.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 7, 2024 12:53:38 GMT -5
Wow Red Sox Payroll Twitter account is fast! They've already put Bello to $9.16 AAV. That puts their projected LT # at $214.07M, 22.93 under the LT threshold. I'd given up on Montgomery for the most part but I think this might close the door on that completely. They aren't going over the LT, I suppose they could still carve out some more room if they really wanted Montgomery but don't see it happen and personally I won't be entertaining the possibility in my head anymore. Yup, that thought entered my mind, too. Guess it's Clevenger or Lorenzen at this point or perhaps nobody. Which is not good for 2024. Hard to see them escaping last place. But putting that aside for the future it's a solid deal for the Sox over the long term as they get the extra year and if they deem Bello worthy of $21 million, then they get him for another year. Just hope there's not too much pressure put on this kid's shoulders. If healthy he's the only one I feel comfortable penciling in for future starting rotations.
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Post by asm18 on Mar 7, 2024 12:55:29 GMT -5
Wow Red Sox Payroll Twitter account is fast! They've already put Bello to $9.16 AAV. That puts their projected LT # at $214.07M, 22.93 under the LT threshold. I'd given up on Montgomery for the most part but I think this might close the door on that completely. They aren't going over the LT, I suppose they could still carve out some more room if they really wanted Montgomery but don't see it happen and personally I won't be entertaining the possibility in my head anymore. He also noted that Bello is now 6th on the team in terms of highest AAV. I guess in theory you could trade Kenley to open up some money, but who knows. They do have space left over for a modest expenditure (extension for Casas? Sign Lorenzen) but yeah that would be a tight squeeze for Monty. I just hope they least use some of the before-the-CBT line money for SOMETHING.
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Mar 7, 2024 12:56:24 GMT -5
Deal checks out. You assume roughly 5/35 is what he would have gotten if things go relatively well. So you get 1 free agent year for $20m, which is likely but not certainly a discount, and the option for another for $21m in exchange for guaranteeing that 5/35. It also totally makes sense both based on his background and his position that Bello would be more interested in this deal than Casas. Have to see the details, but your missing a guaranteed buyout of the option year. It could be anything from 2M-8M? Say it's 4M and now the deal looks like: 5/35 for already controlled years 16M for FA1 4M BO/21M for FA2. Take that BO guarantee out of the FA1 season and that deal potentially could be a pretty big discount if Bello is a solid #3. Giolito got 1 yr + PO for 38.5 to cover 2024/25 off a bad year. This deal could be 20/1yr with a CO to make it 2 yrs/36M for 2029/30. Is that a big enough discount to make it worth the Sox while not to go year to year?
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Post by bishop on Mar 7, 2024 12:59:15 GMT -5
If you don't give a fair contract extension to your young, healthy ace then I don't know who you give an extension to. It's not like they have a plethora of young pitchers to choose from. Well, position players, but for obvious reasons Casas feels less urgency to lock in a longer deal since his chances of getting a CEI and never playing past like 2026 is much lower than any pitchers. Do hope we're working with him and Grissom and maybe doing the same Luxury Tax AAV trick during the season, but also see why they'd want another half season of data on those guys- Casas to see how much of his 2nd half performance he can sustain, Grissom to see play at all haha
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,907
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Post by nomar on Mar 7, 2024 12:59:24 GMT -5
Wow Red Sox Payroll Twitter account is fast! They've already put Bello to $9.16 AAV. That puts their projected LT # at $214.07M, 22.93 under the LT threshold. I'd given up on Montgomery for the most part but I think this might close the door on that completely. They aren't going over the LT, I suppose they could still carve out some more room if they really wanted Montgomery but don't see it happen and personally I won't be entertaining the possibility in my head anymore. He also noted that Bello is now 6th on the team in terms of highest AAV. I guess in theory you could trade Kenley to open up some money, but who knows. They do have space left over for a modest expenditure (extension for Casas? Sign Lorenzen) but yeah that would be a tight squeeze for Monty. I just hope they least use some of the before-the-CBT line money for SOMETHING. Not adding a starter would be Loria-esque. If they’re going to be that stingy while safely below the LT, they deserve to be publicly dragged all year long.
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Post by briam on Mar 7, 2024 13:04:08 GMT -5
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Post by scottysmalls on Mar 7, 2024 13:05:39 GMT -5
Wow Red Sox Payroll Twitter account is fast! They've already put Bello to $9.16 AAV. That puts their projected LT # at $214.07M, 22.93 under the LT threshold. I'd given up on Montgomery for the most part but I think this might close the door on that completely. They aren't going over the LT, I suppose they could still carve out some more room if they really wanted Montgomery but don't see it happen and personally I won't be entertaining the possibility in my head anymore. I think the odds of Montgomery are really low, but I don't think this necessarily rules him out from a LT perspective. For one thing he might sign to an AAV < $23M, but also they could still trade Kenley. Add: of course if Cotillo's right that Henry's cash budget is like right where they are now and they didn't have Giolito insurance then Montgomery probably has been ruled out for a while.
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Post by asm18 on Mar 7, 2024 13:07:51 GMT -5
Not adding a starter would be Loria-esque. If they’re going to be that stingy while safely below the LT, they deserve to be publicly dragged all year long. Add Rich Hill, get a puppy for the Clubhouse, funnel money to Juan Soto’s family as a bribe - at least use your resources in some capacity that you have as advantage over like 20 other teams in baseball.
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Post by notstarboard on Mar 7, 2024 13:09:16 GMT -5
This is the first post I've seen worried about a Bello extension on the grounds that it will prevent the team from spending in the future. Strange logic too, since the point of this deal is to save the team money in the future (in exchange for a little bit of risk). What do you think posters mean when they don't think it's a good enough deal for the Red Sox? Yes, the logic is that it might help them save money in the future, but the reason that people have different subjective opinions is because they rate the future surplus value against the risk and come to the conclusion that's it not worth the risk. Go find any julyanmorley posts in this very thread to see examples. And what is the problem when risks don't pan out? See for examples the Sale extension of the Gilioto deal. It's a big chunk of dead money on the payroll and the acceptance that the Sox will punt a season because that will prevent the Sox from spending that money more productively. You think - I don't like the deal, it's a bad risk, but it will have no effect on future Sox spending - is the non strange logic? Your logic is fair. I think I found the opposition to this so baffling that I assume it wasn't based on logic beyond "ownership says black, so I say white". I think the risks are being massively overstated and the rewards are being downplayed. I would bet these pre-arb extensions by and large have turned out great for teams league-wide, and have saved teams a ton of money. Heck, Atlanta is a juggernaut mostly because of these deals. Your average big money FA deal at age 30 looks atrocious in comparison.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 7, 2024 13:11:47 GMT -5
If you don't give a fair contract extension to your young, healthy ace then I don't know who you give an extension to. It's not like they have a plethora of young pitchers to choose from. Well, position players, but for obvious reasons Casas feels less urgency to lock in a longer deal since his chances of getting a CEI and never playing past like 2026 is much lower than any pitchers. Do hope we're working with him and Grissom and maybe doing the same Luxury Tax AAV trick during the season, but also see why they'd want another half season of data on those guys- Casas to see how much of his 2nd half performance he can sustain, Grissom to see play at all haha I love Casas and want to get a deal done, but the Red Sox are flush with young, positional talent. Pitching is so barren for them that this was a necessity. I don't think any trickery is needed, just have the extension kick in a year later. Wow. 98.5 just brought up the updated the new numbers as well. Almost read that post verbatim in mentioning Montgomery is less likely now with only 22 million until the luxury tax. Ematz, are you Tyler Milliken?
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 7, 2024 13:13:02 GMT -5
Wow Red Sox Payroll Twitter account is fast! They've already put Bello to $9.16 AAV. That puts their projected LT # at $214.07M, 22.93 under the LT threshold. I'd given up on Montgomery for the most part but I think this might close the door on that completely. They aren't going over the LT, I suppose they could still carve out some more room if they really wanted Montgomery but don't see it happen and personally I won't be entertaining the possibility in my head anymore. I think the odds of Montgomery are really low, but I don't think this necessarily rules him out from a LT perspective. For one thing he might sign to an AAV < $23M, but also they could still trade Kenley. Add: of course if Cotillo's right that Henry's cash budget is like right where they are now and they didn't have Giolito insurance then Montgomery probably has been ruled out for a while. That is all possible but with moving parts of having to shed salary and I don't see Montgomery signing for less than 23AAV I just don't see it happening at all. Not going to continue to have any optimism they're able to get something done there. If they do get something done all the better I will be happily surprised, if they don't at this point no disappointment anymore. That is a very valid point in terms of actual $s vs AAV $s. The actual real world dollars spent is probably roughly the same today as it was yesterday. So I guess perhaps I should keep the door at least a sliver open in my head.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 7, 2024 13:14:55 GMT -5
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Post by abrinker on Mar 7, 2024 13:28:38 GMT -5
In the context of an extension “worth it” is also relative to what the team otherwise would have paid him for the 5 years of control they already have. Two pre-arb then three escalating arb years. $8-$10m per WAR is the going rate in free agency, but that’s not what they would pay Bello for the next few years, so for the contract to be a value it has to come in under that number. Only a year ago, Spencer Strider was extended for 6/75, with a club option that could make it 7/97. This included 2 pre-arb years at $1M apiece, 3/46 for his arb years, $22M for his first FA season, and a club option for another FA season at $22M or a $5M buyout. Bello obviously doesn't have the same track record as Strider, but using Strider's deal as a benchmark and adjusting for performance differential, I'd guess a fair market deal would give him $2M 2024-25, 3/36 for arb years, $18M for first FA season and additional club option at $20M or a $4M buyout. That would value the deal at 6/60 with the potential to rise to 7/76, including 2 FA years, running through his age 31 season. For perspective, Cease and Gallen received ~$6M for their first arb year last year, Burnes and Gallen both got $10M for Arb2, and Burnes received just under $16M for Arb3 this year. Cumulatively, that would amount to 3/32 for three arbs years if you went year to year and were the caliber of pitcher they are. Bello falls below these pitchers in performance track record, so 3/36 may even be a little generous (if he was valued at, say, 85% of those benchmarks, his arb years would be $27M, but with inflation maybe you make it $30M), but maybe what it takes to induce an extension that buys out FA years. Admittedly a lucky guess, but it looks like the number landed exactly where I estimated. I had 6/56 with a $4M buyout, and an extra option year for $20M. Can't get closer than that.
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Post by yuchangclan on Mar 7, 2024 13:32:16 GMT -5
Wow Red Sox Payroll Twitter account is fast! They've already put Bello to $9.16 AAV. That puts their projected LT # at $214.07M, 22.93 under the LT threshold. I'd given up on Montgomery for the most part but I think this might close the door on that completely. They aren't going over the LT, I suppose they could still carve out some more room if they really wanted Montgomery but don't see it happen and personally I won't be entertaining the possibility in my head anymore. Maybe they can give Montgomery the ol’ Matt Chapman(3/54). Front loaded with opt outs and it could work? I’ve basically given up on Montgomery at this point, but nobody seems to be stepping up for him.
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