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4/23-4/25 Red Sox @ Guardians Series Thread
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Post by strike23 on Apr 23, 2024 19:35:35 GMT -5
So the rotation peice and RHH OF everyone wanted are turning out to be the only peices we didn't need, if we can stumble to the deadline around .500 and add whichever of edman/kim/adamas hopefully become available with Casas and Hendricks coming back I'd really like this team
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briam
Veteran
Posts: 1,180
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Post by briam on Apr 23, 2024 19:39:53 GMT -5
So far this team is sort of what we expected. Just ok. They’ll beat the bad teams and lose to the good ones. Thank goodness the rotation is the best in baseball. I think the rotation being the best in baseball and the team being over .500 despite missing half the lineup isn't even in the "sort of what we expected" category If I told you at the beginning of the year they’d be 10-2 against the As, Pirates, and Angels and were 3-9 against the Mariners, Os, and Guardians, you wouldn’t say “sounds about right”?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 23, 2024 19:52:34 GMT -5
Moto of the season. Beat up horrible teams, lose to good teams the only thing is this sox team, with the lineup tonight, is a horrible team. i'd take a healthy sox team over these guardians I'm not so sure honestly. They had O'Neil, Devers, and Casas on 4/15 (when O'Neil got hurt) and lost 0-6. Kutter Crawford started. They had Casas for the whole series They had Devers 4/15 and 4/16. On 4/16 Devers was 1-2 with 2 walks and 2 RBI and they lost 10-7. Whitlock shortened start due to injury. Won 2-0 on 4/17 in the Houck shutout game. Houck owns this team. Lost 5-4 on 4/18 bullpen game with no O'Neil and no Devers. Herculean effort honestly. Team suffered some unfortunate injuries, but they had little to no depth. Injuries will happen over 162. Whitlock getting hurt should shock no one. Losing a starting pitcher for the year shouldn't shock anyone with how elbows have been exploding. I will admit their injuries feel like a bit more than your average team and hitting the worst possible players. You don't expect Casas to suffer a cracked rib which is giving me shades of Jacoby Ellsbury.
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 23, 2024 20:05:24 GMT -5
the only thing is this sox team, with the lineup tonight, is a horrible team. i'd take a healthy sox team over these guardians I'm not so sure honestly. They had O'Neil, Devers, and Casas on 4/15 (when O'Neil got hurt) and lost 0-6. Kutter Crawford started. They had Casas for the whole series They had Devers 4/15 and 4/16. On 4/16 Devers was 1-2 with 2 walks and 2 RBI and they lost 10-7. Whitlock shortened start due to injury. Won 2-0 on 4/17 in the Houck shutout game. Houck owns this team. Lost 5-4 on 4/18 bullpen game with no O'Neil and no Devers. Herculean effort honestly. Team suffered some unfortunate injuries, but they had little to no depth. Injuries will happen over 162. Whitlock getting hurt should shock no one. Losing a starting pitcher for the year shouldn't shock anyone with how elbows have been exploding. I will admit their injuries feel like a bit more than your average team and hitting the worst possible players. You don't expect Casas to suffer a cracked rib which is giving me shades of Jacoby Ellsbury. None of this is with Story, Grissom, and Refsnyder, Devers wasn't right even when he was in the lineup, and Abreu hadn't started to hit yet. Edit: And O'Neill missed most of the series and Whitlock had to leave at 54 pitches due to injury in a game we barely lost... I think we win 3 of 4 with a healthy roster.
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Post by strike23 on Apr 23, 2024 20:10:04 GMT -5
10-7 was in extras too, so closer than the score would indicate
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 23, 2024 20:11:57 GMT -5
I'm not so sure honestly. They had O'Neil, Devers, and Casas on 4/15 (when O'Neil got hurt) and lost 0-6. Kutter Crawford started. They had Casas for the whole series They had Devers 4/15 and 4/16. On 4/16 Devers was 1-2 with 2 walks and 2 RBI and they lost 10-7. Whitlock shortened start due to injury. Won 2-0 on 4/17 in the Houck shutout game. Houck owns this team. Lost 5-4 on 4/18 bullpen game with no O'Neil and no Devers. Herculean effort honestly. Team suffered some unfortunate injuries, but they had little to no depth. Injuries will happen over 162. Whitlock getting hurt should shock no one. Losing a starting pitcher for the year shouldn't shock anyone with how elbows have been exploding. I will admit their injuries feel like a bit more than your average team and hitting the worst possible players. You don't expect Casas to suffer a cracked rib which is giving me shades of Jacoby Ellsbury. None of this is with Story, Grissom, and Refsnyder, Devers wasn't right even when he was in the lineup, and Abreu hadn't started to hit yet. But that's also assuming some guys aren't currently overly outperforming either. Will Kutter and Houck pitch like Cy Young candidates all year? Grissom is a good offensively, bad defensively which is a problem the team as a whole faces. Story was a wizard defensively, but unfortunately isn't coming back. He might not be a good hitter anymore either, but at least a plus plus glove would be super helpful right now. Devers is starting tomorrow. I don't know how much his health is impacting his bat. He's obviously not 100%, but the game after the O'Neil injury he was fine. His k/bb is still fantastic. There's probably some drag because of health, but I think it's mostly just a sluggish start. Until he gets an IL stint I think he's mostly fine.
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Post by rhswanzey on Apr 23, 2024 20:30:49 GMT -5
I don’t think he wanted O’Neill running around on a wet outfield after not playing for a week.
In the Pittsburgh finale, I think it had more to do with how short the bench was. That lineup obviously had several players who should not be batting close and late with runners on base. Maybe he wanted Yoshida available for a big spot, instead of picking between two catchers and David Hamilton. That also somewhat explains using Heineman at DH - he was the most obvious PH candidate in that weak lineup, and it doesn’t matter who hits for the DH.
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Post by strike23 on Apr 23, 2024 20:32:13 GMT -5
What's making this team frustrating is that if you made a list at the beginning of the year of everything that would have to go right for them to win 100 games and the likelihood of each they're crushing all the long odds items, TON has turned it back to 2021, the rotation has a significantly sub 2 ERA, Abreu and Duran look like they did last year, etc and the reason they're "only" on an 87 win pace are things that felt like reasonable assumptions have gone wrong ex. Story being healthy and good at D, devers hitting over .250, one of grissom/valdez/reyes being replacement level at 2B, Casas, etc
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Post by soxfansince67 on Apr 23, 2024 20:51:32 GMT -5
Teams will score runs against our pitchers. That doesn't frustrate me - it's baseball. But - errors and baserunning mistakes from this team drive me nuts. How professional, supposedly well coached baseball players keep giving up runs this way is becoming incomprehensible.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Apr 23, 2024 20:59:04 GMT -5
Teams will score runs against our pitchers. That doesn't frustrate me - it's baseball. But - errors and baserunning mistakes from this team drive me nuts. How professional, supposedly well coached baseball players keep giving up runs this way is becoming incomprehensible. What made it extra frustrating tonight is that Refsnyder and Wong are guys you can typically count on to do the little things right and not make mental mistakes.
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 23, 2024 21:35:50 GMT -5
None of this is with Story, Grissom, and Refsnyder, Devers wasn't right even when he was in the lineup, and Abreu hadn't started to hit yet. But that's also assuming some guys aren't currently overly outperforming either. Will Kutter and Houck pitch like Cy Young candidates all year? Grissom is a good offensively, bad defensively which is a problem the team as a whole faces. Story was a wizard defensively, but unfortunately isn't coming back. He might not be a good hitter anymore either, but at least a plus plus glove would be super helpful right now. Devers is starting tomorrow. I don't know how much his health is impacting his bat. He's obviously not 100%, but the game after the O'Neil injury he was fine. His k/bb is still fantastic. There's probably some drag because of health, but I think it's mostly just a sluggish start. Until he gets an IL stint I think he's mostly fine. They were fingernails from winning two of those games. Whitlock staying healthy alone very likely wins them one. The other went to extras and they were leading in the 9th. Having 5 extra starting position players would almost certainly have made the difference. They needed all of one more hit in a timely situation. If we're going into pitching regression hypotheticals (why are we doing this again?) how about Ben Lively, who is a 32 y/o with a career 5.13 FIP in 213.2 IP and who spent his physical prime in the KBO. Every guy in our rotation who is excelling right now is merely pitching to their potential, not above it. Crawford's advanced metrics were elite last year. Houck has a sizeable body of success as a starter; stamina was the main concern. Whitlock's concern has been health, not effectiveness. Pivetta dominated in the second half last year after adding his sweeper... There was no guarantee of them doing this well, but there is also no reason to expect these guys to regress much. The quality of contact hasn't been divorced from the results. I don't know how you can say Devers was fine the day after that collision when he has been in and out of the lineup all year and hasn't looked particularly like himself. Playing ≠ fine.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 23, 2024 23:40:49 GMT -5
But that's also assuming some guys aren't currently overly outperforming either. Will Kutter and Houck pitch like Cy Young candidates all year? Grissom is a good offensively, bad defensively which is a problem the team as a whole faces. Story was a wizard defensively, but unfortunately isn't coming back. He might not be a good hitter anymore either, but at least a plus plus glove would be super helpful right now. Devers is starting tomorrow. I don't know how much his health is impacting his bat. He's obviously not 100%, but the game after the O'Neil injury he was fine. His k/bb is still fantastic. There's probably some drag because of health, but I think it's mostly just a sluggish start. Until he gets an IL stint I think he's mostly fine. They were fingernails from winning two of those games. Whitlock staying healthy alone very likely wins them one. The other went to extras and they were leading in the 9th. Having 5 extra starting position players would almost certainly have made the difference. They needed all of one more hit in a timely situation. If we're going into pitching regression hypotheticals (why are we doing this again?) how about Ben Lively, who is a 32 y/o with a career 5.13 FIP in 213.2 IP and who spent his physical prime in the KBO. Every guy in our rotation who is excelling right now is merely pitching to their potential, not above it. Crawford's advanced metrics were elite last year. Houck has a sizeable body of success as a starter; stamina was the main concern. Whitlock's concern has been health, not effectiveness. Pivetta dominated in the second half last year after adding his sweeper... There was no guarantee of them doing this well, but there is also no reason to expect these guys to regress much. The quality of contact hasn't been divorced from the results. I don't know how you can say Devers was fine the day after that collision when he has been in and out of the lineup all year and hasn't looked particularly like himself. Playing ≠ fine. Because Devers still went 1 for 2 with 2 walks and 2 RBI that day despite being hobbled. Maybe on Whitlock. He probably does give them an extra 2 innings which might have prevented Rodriguez from pitching and giving up 2. Though we saw today from Houck how quickly it could unravel, but they likely survive it. With that said, they actually should have still won it, but Kenley and then Wink blew it. His health is a major question mark. It always has been which is why the Yankees didn't protect him in the rule 5. I would argue questions were also starting to rise if he was the same pitcher in the rotation as he was in the pen. As a starter he looked rather pedestrian until this year. I would say Houck's biggest concern was his 3rd pitch, but that seems to be elite now. Zips and streamer both had Crawford as a 4.28-4.41 era pitcher this year. I have no idea how that's figured though. That's fair on Lively's numbers, but I would compare him to Criswell. He's starting because Bieber and Gavin Williams went down. Crawford and Houck I can certainly buy into hitting their potential. Pivetta, I can't until he does it for a year. He got pulled from the rotation last year and has been a model of inconsistency for his career and he's 31 years old. I'm hoping the addition of the sweeper is a permanent change for the better, but for him it's going to be a matter of believing after he does it for a season. I'd be curious how he responds coming back from injury as well. Last pitched April 3rd and he'll probably be back beginning of May.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,539
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Post by asm18 on Apr 24, 2024 7:24:05 GMT -5
Overall, Red Sox are currently ranked 7th in MLB in runs allowed, but 16th in runs scored.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 24, 2024 7:35:30 GMT -5
Gerrit Cole, 2023: 209 IP, 2.63 ERA All Red Sox pitchers, 2024: 218 IP, 2.64 ERA
Rob Refsnyder, salary: $1.85 million Rob Refsnyder, value produced in 19 PAs per fangraphs: $3.3 million
Devers + Story + Grissom + Casas: 0.7 WAR Reyes + Hamilton + Valdez + Dalbec: -1.8 WAR
Rafaela, first 174 PAs of his career: .199/.241/.321, 50 wRC+ Pedroia, first 173 PAs of his career: .197/.291/.289, 52 wRC+
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 24, 2024 8:21:36 GMT -5
Wilyer Abreu at 1.2 WAR in his MLB career in 148 PAs. 4.8 WAR pace if he does that over a full season.
I do not expect him to keep being a 140 wRC+ guy but he sure looks like a legit MLB starter.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,539
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Post by asm18 on Apr 24, 2024 9:22:09 GMT -5
Devers + Story + Grissom + Casas: 0.7 WAR Reyes + Hamilton + Valdez + Dalbec: -1.8 WAR Red Sox K rates by players who aren't in the infirmary: Yoshida: 13.6% Refsnyder: 15.8% Devers: 17.2% Duran: 21.4% O'Neill: 23.1% Ceddane: 28.2% Wilyer: 28.6% Wong: 28.8% Valdez: 30.1% Reese: 30.8% Reyes: 31.4% Hamilton: 36.1% Dalbec: 51.4% I suppose the faint hope is that dudes who have really sucked are not far from being replaced (Grissom returning, Breslow using photos from the 2021 Chicago Cubs Office Christmas Party to blackmail Jed Hoyer into sending us Garrett Cooper).
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Post by GyIantosca on Apr 24, 2024 9:25:19 GMT -5
Teams will score runs against our pitchers. That doesn't frustrate me - it's baseball. But - errors and baserunning mistakes from this team drive me nuts. How professional, supposedly well coached baseball players keep giving up runs this way is becoming incomprehensible. It’s like it’s spreading. The mistake, maybe each guy feels more pressure to do more. So they get in their heads. When the guys who don’t make them usually start making them it sucks. Houck I’m impressed I’m very happy .
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briam
Veteran
Posts: 1,180
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Post by briam on Apr 24, 2024 9:29:55 GMT -5
Gerrit Cole, 2023: 209 IP, 2.63 ERA All Red Sox pitchers, 2024: 218 IP, 2.64 ERA
Rob Refsnyder, salary: $1.85 million Rob Refsnyder, value produced in 19 PAs per fangraphs: $3.3 million
Devers + Story + Grissom + Casas: 0.7 WAR Reyes + Hamilton + Valdez + Dalbec: -1.8 WAR
Rafaela, first 174 PAs of his career: .199/.241/.321, 50 wRC+ Pedroia, first 173 PAs of his career: .197/.291/.289, 52 wRC+
My panic level for Rafaela would be down 3 notches if his approach was a tiny bit better. Hes got a lot of Christian Arroyo in him at the dish. I suppose gold glove and versatile Arroyo is still a pretty good player though.
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 9:39:39 GMT -5
Gerrit Cole, 2023: 209 IP, 2.63 ERA All Red Sox pitchers, 2024: 218 IP, 2.64 ERA
Rob Refsnyder, salary: $1.85 million Rob Refsnyder, value produced in 19 PAs per fangraphs: $3.3 million
Devers + Story + Grissom + Casas: 0.7 WAR Reyes + Hamilton + Valdez + Dalbec: -1.8 WAR
Rafaela, first 174 PAs of his career: .199/.241/.321, 50 wRC+ Pedroia, first 173 PAs of his career: .197/.291/.289, 52 wRC+
My panic level for Rafaela would be down 3 notches if his approach was a tiny bit better. Hes got a lot of Christian Arroyo in him at the dish. I suppose gold globe and versatile Arroyo is still a pretty good player though. It's a pretty good player you have on year to year contracts. Is it still a pretty good player on an 8 yr/50M contract? That's the unnecessary (imo) risk that the Sox took with this contract.
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briam
Veteran
Posts: 1,180
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Post by briam on Apr 24, 2024 9:40:02 GMT -5
Qualified MLB leaders in pitching fWAR (all tied with 1.1) 1. Kutter Crawford 2. Zack Wheeler 3. Tanner Houck
On the flip side of the coin, Valdez + Dalbec + Reyes + Rafaela = -2.3
And I get this isn’t exactly how it works but so far Kutter and Houck’s incredible start has been offset by the bottom of the order.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 24, 2024 9:48:28 GMT -5
Qualified MLB leaders in pitching fWAR (all tied with 1.1) 1. Kutter Crawford 2. Zack Wheeler 3. Tanner Houck On the flip side of the coin, Valdez + Dalbec + Reyes + Rafaela = -2.3 And I get this isn’t exactly how it works but so far Kutter and Houck’s incredible start has been offset by the bottom of the order. The catchers are doing great. The outfield has been great. The pitching has been incredible. Things couldn't possibly have gone any better...
...Except the infield where every single starter has gotten hurt and all four replacements are in the bottom 18 out of 411 in WAR total so far (min 10 PAs).
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 24, 2024 10:07:59 GMT -5
Qualified MLB leaders in pitching fWAR (all tied with 1.1) 1. Kutter Crawford 2. Zack Wheeler 3. Tanner Houck On the flip side of the coin, Valdez + Dalbec + Reyes + Rafaela = -2.3 And I get this isn’t exactly how it works but so far Kutter and Houck’s incredible start has been offset by the bottom of the order. It's not exactly how it works but it's sort of kind of how it works, in the sense that for as superlative as Crawford and Houck have been, so abysmal have the worst players been. Everything else basically nets out and the team is slightly above .500.
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 24, 2024 11:25:09 GMT -5
I don't know exactly what this means but it sounds good
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Apr 24, 2024 11:27:49 GMT -5
I don't know exactly what this means but it sounds good Basically he knows when the ball is in the zone, pull the trigger and make quality contact.
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Post by wanderingdude on Apr 24, 2024 11:49:48 GMT -5
Wilyer Abreu at 1.2 WAR in his MLB career in 148 PAs. 4.8 WAR pace if he does that over a full season. I do not expect him to keep being a 140 wRC+ guy but he sure looks like a legit MLB starter. What is going to happen to the outfield, and maybe even during this trade deadline is going to be one of the more fascinating things for me to watch. I still am on high alert for them to sell on Duran, i don’t think he’s the cleanest fit for this roster moving forward while also carrying a lot of trade value.
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