SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
5/7-5/8 Red Sox @ Braves Series Thread
|
|
Post by ramireja on May 6, 2024 11:50:26 GMT -5
5/7 Red Sox (RHP Kutter Crawford, 2-1, 1.56, 40.1 IP, 40K:13BB) @ Braves (RHP Reynaldo López, 2-1, 1.50, 30.0 IP, 31K:10BB) 7:20 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 5/8 Red Sox (RHP Nick Pivetta, 1-1, 0.82, 11.0 IP, 13K:1BB) @ Braves (LHP Chris Sale, 4-1, 3.44, 36.2 IP, 42K:7BB) 7:20 pm ET, NESN/WEEI MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2024: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
|
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on May 6, 2024 11:51:00 GMT -5
Pivetta not yet confirmed (to my knowledge) but seems like a strong bet for Wed so I have him penciled in there currently.
|
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on May 6, 2024 12:07:56 GMT -5
Looking forward to Vaughn Grissom batting against Chris Sale.
|
|
|
|
Post by bluechip on May 6, 2024 12:12:58 GMT -5
Looking forward to Vaughn Grissom batting against Chris Sale. I am still a Chris Sale fan. I hope Grissom gets two homers and six rbis while facing Sale. |
|
|
|
Post by asm18 on May 6, 2024 12:22:02 GMT -5
Here on Chris Sale Island, the DJ is blasting Whitney Houston on the beach, while preparations are made to extradite Corey Kluber for the theft of the 2017 Cy Young Award |
|
|
|
Post by gregblossersbelly on May 6, 2024 12:25:27 GMT -5
Looking forward to Vaughn Grissom batting against Chris Sale. I am still a Chris Sale fan. I hope Grissom gets two homers and six rbis while facing Sale. Me too. Him stomping out to the mound and closing out the Dodgers will always be a memory we cherish. Making Machado look foolish will always be the the cherry on top of the sundae. www.facebook.com/share/v/vZ6SyHhAai8keDsc/?mibextid=0VwfS7 |
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on May 6, 2024 12:50:51 GMT -5
With his 3.44 ERA, Sale would slot in as the Red Sox' #8 starter.
|
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on May 6, 2024 15:52:54 GMT -5
Looking forward to Vaughn Grissom batting against Chris Sale. I am still a Chris Sale fan. I hope Grissom gets two homers and six rbis while facing Sale. Yup, me too, although I'd be fine with a Grissom HR off Sale in a 1-0 victory. My enduring image of Sale will always be of him corkscrewing Machado to the ground for the final out of the 2018 World Series. That superceded everything else. Hope he eventually finds his way back to the Sox in some sort of coaching capacity once his career is over. |
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
|
Post by ericmvan on May 6, 2024 17:29:04 GMT -5
Pivetta not yet confirmed (to my knowledge) but seems like a strong bet for Wed so I have him penciled in there currently. When Houck came off the IL last year, he had one start on 6 days rest. Ignore that for a moment, and his first four outings were all worse than his last three -- overall, first .340 / .390 (xwOBA / wOBA), and then .277 / .246. Those three starts were of course more clues that he would be great this year.
His game with 6 days rest, in his season's next-to-last start? .481 / .570. Worst start of all eight by a mile.
Now, his first four starts this year have the exact same structure as the last 4 of last year. Starts 1, 2 and 4 were .174 / .160. Star 3 was .504 / .435.
The catch? That bad outing was on 4 days rest and was followed, on four days rest, by the best outing of his life.
Furthermore, in his great run of 3-inning dominance at the start of last year, he had a great outing on on 6 days. It was his sole outing on 7 days that was the worst of the batch.
There are several question here. Do they know what happened to ruin those two starts? Is the extra day of rest last year part of that? If they do have a handle on the two bad outings, are they confident that won't won't reoccur if he gets six days now?
Assuming that the 6 days of rest is not in itself a problem, the choice comes back to the importance of this game -- where Houck projects to be better than Pivetta--versus the need to get Pivetta going rather than having him wait. I think they may be thinking of starting Houck in this series but using Pivetta in relief. I'd love to see that. (For one thing, if you have a plan to piggyback Pivetta on Houck, there's no worrying that Cora leaves Houck in too long, as he seems to have been doinh since the Maddux.)
|
|
rhswanzey
Veteran
Posts: 441
Member is Online
|
Post by rhswanzey on May 6, 2024 19:39:31 GMT -5
Houck’s career high innings total is 119 - majors or minors. He’s already almost halfway there. There may be workload factors into giving both Houck and Crawford extra days as the schedule allows. Our available starting pitchers were handled that way well into last summer until it was no longer feasible.
|
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on May 6, 2024 21:40:25 GMT -5
The innings have been quite a bit lower work and stress, though. He's only about 36 percent of his way to his batters faced total from last year, for example. Also, the things that limited his innings last year were a) effectiveness, and b) a line drive to the face. With the Verducci Effect quite well debunked, I don't think they'd hesitate to throw him out there for 160 to 180 innings.
|
|
|
|
Post by bluechip on May 7, 2024 5:44:31 GMT -5
The innings have been quite a bit lower work and stress, though. He's only about 36 percent of his way to his batters faced total from last year, for example. Also, the things that limited his innings last year were a) effectiveness, and b) a line drive to the face. With the Verducci Effect quite well debunked, I don't think they'd hesitate to throw him out there for 160 to 180 innings. I do not buy into the Verducci Effect. Moreover Houck is well beyond the age where it applied anyway. |
|
|
|
Post by okin15 on May 7, 2024 7:46:10 GMT -5
The innings have been quite a bit lower work and stress, though. He's only about 36 percent of his way to his batters faced total from last year, for example. Also, the things that limited his innings last year were a) effectiveness, and b) a line drive to the face. With the Verducci Effect quite well debunked, I don't think they'd hesitate to throw him out there for 160 to 180 innings. I do not buy into the Verducci Effect. Moreover Houck is well beyond the age where it applied anyway. Can you guys remind me? Is that the one where they said don't go more than like 30 innings over your past max?
What is the current thinking on workload / protecting arms, and how tangled is that with the three times through the order thing related to effectiveness?
|
|
|
|
Post by asm18 on May 7, 2024 10:37:31 GMT -5
Tom Caron and Alex Speier interview Andrew Bailey
|
|
rhswanzey
Veteran
Posts: 441
Member is Online
|
Post by rhswanzey on May 7, 2024 11:38:40 GMT -5
I do not buy into the Verducci Effect. Moreover Houck is well beyond the age where it applied anyway. Can you guys remind me? Is that the one where they said don't go more than like 30 innings over your past max?
What is the current thinking on workload / protecting arms, and how tangled is that with the three times through the order thing related to effectiveness?
Yes, the Verducci effect was a hypothesis that a >30ip year-to-year jump for pitchers age 25 and younger greatly increased injury risk. While I was not explicitly referring to this effect, I do question whether the debunking of this hypothesis means that teams are not weary of large year-over-year innings jumps. Granted, both Houck and Crawford are in their age 28 seasons. That’s a different scenario than, say, giving Bello an extra day of rest on multiple occasions during his first full MLB season. Still, if you prorate Houck and Crawford across a 32 start season, that would be 207.1ip (Houck) and 183.1ip (Crawford). Both totals are well above professional highs and would have respectively ranked 4th and 25th in MLB last season. We can’t agree that the team might have some incentive to mix in several turns on 5-6 days rest throughout this season? |
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on May 7, 2024 13:03:33 GMT -5
Can you guys remind me? Is that the one where they said don't go more than like 30 innings over your past max?
What is the current thinking on workload / protecting arms, and how tangled is that with the three times through the order thing related to effectiveness?
Yes, the Verducci effect was a hypothesis that a >30ip year-to-year jump for pitchers age 25 and younger greatly increased injury risk. While I was not explicitly referring to this effect, I do question whether the debunking of this hypothesis means that teams are not weary of large year-over-year innings jumps. Granted, both Houck and Crawford are in their age 28 seasons. That’s a different scenario than, say, giving Bello an extra day of rest on multiple occasions during his first full MLB season. Still, if you prorate Houck and Crawford across a 32 start season, that would be 207.1ip (Houck) and 183.1ip (Crawford). Both totals are well above professional highs and would have respectively ranked 4th and 25th in MLB last season. We can’t agree that the team might have some incentive to mix in several turns on 5-6 days rest throughout this season?Oh I'm sure they'll just get injured eventually, that'll give them some time off.
Even if it's something very minor they could use it as an excuse to give them a couple weeks off, like they maybe just did with Bello. |
|
|
|
Post by coke0myfavdrink on May 7, 2024 15:11:37 GMT -5
With his 3.44 ERA, Sale would slot in as the Red Sox' #8 starter. Ab would of fixed him too so his era would be 1.44 here |
|
|
|
Post by benogliviesbrother on May 7, 2024 16:37:54 GMT -5
The great Al Leiter exploring & admiring the repertoire of Kutter Crawford:
|
|
|
|
Post by itinerantherb on May 7, 2024 17:54:45 GMT -5
The 310 to Left conversation with Bailey was pretty interesting, especially when he talks about arsenal and usage adjustments for individual pitchers.
|
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 7, 2024 18:01:48 GMT -5
probably the first and only time you would get this from me. lol. Top teams coming up, LFG !!
|
|
|
|
Post by Foulke_In_Athol on May 7, 2024 18:05:48 GMT -5
Really great breakdown of Kutter. Al Leiter seems to have a great grasp on the vernacular for old school, new school, Middle School Pitching.
Kutter's rise has been a real pleasure to watch since A ball when we were saying "good for pitch mix, but probably a tweener/up and down type, to you know he's better than we thought, to now the sky's the limit for this kid!
|
|
shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,532
|
Post by shagworthy on May 7, 2024 18:13:29 GMT -5
I hate when we play the Braves and the draconian blackout rules.
|
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on May 7, 2024 18:14:16 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by manfred on May 7, 2024 18:23:48 GMT -5
How awesome is opposite-field Duran?
|
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 7, 2024 18:24:04 GMT -5
he must steal 3rd, a message must be sent.
|
|
|
