SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
5/13-5/16 Red Sox vs. Rays Series Thread
|
Post by GyIantosca on May 14, 2024 9:01:15 GMT -5
Typical Smith at bat grounder weakly to second base or first base
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on May 14, 2024 9:07:44 GMT -5
And yet Smith has actually been the worse offensive player: a -12 wRC+ to Bobby's 6.
Smith has -1.9 WAR and an 82 wRC+ since 2021. (But only a 19.6% K rate!) I don't really understand why they thought this experiment was worthwhile. A lefty who can't hit righties or lefties doesn't actually give you a platoon advantage...
As to why they thought he was worthwhile I think it was reasonable to get a slightly below replacement backup 1B to Cooper. I think they're playing him way too much, but the thought was fine I guess. Another thing is that he was really hot in September last year, running an >.400 xwOBA, so maybe they thought there was something real there, but I don't know. I'm totally ready to move on though, give Kavadas a chance. Yeah, they gave him a pretty big role is the thing. If they thought they needed to use that roster spot on a pure backup first baseman, okay, I guess. But 3 of his 7 starts have been as a DH, and they've used him twice as a pinch hitter.
He did have an interesting September last year: a .241/.315/.532 line despite a .210 BABIP. But how heavily do you want to weigh that against 1200 PAs going back to the start of 2021? "What's the harm in trying him out for 30 PAs" they might have thought. But the harm has turned out to be -0.5 WAR in that very brief stretch.
|
|
asm18
Veteran
Posts: 1,134
|
Post by asm18 on May 14, 2024 9:21:07 GMT -5
Alex Speier today on Niko Kavadas: Yeah, color me extremely skeptical. If Dom Smith continues to perform poorly (it's been 9 games and 30 plate appearances) or someone gets hurt (Cooper gets hit like every other game), then sure go for it with Niko. But this seems like we're being set up to be excited for a guy's AAA performance only for him to get exposed by big league arms. www.bostonglobe.com/2024/05/14/sports/red-sox-minor-leagues-niko-kavadas/
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on May 14, 2024 9:58:28 GMT -5
Alex Speier today on Niko Kavadas: Yeah, color me extremely skeptical. If Dom Smith continues to perform poorly (it's been 9 games and 30 plate appearances) or someone gets hurt (Cooper gets hit like every other game), then sure go for it with Niko. But this seems like we're being set up to be excited for a guy's AAA performance only for him to get exposed by big league arms. www.bostonglobe.com/2024/05/14/sports/red-sox-minor-leagues-niko-kavadas/What's he gonna do, have a -12 wRC+? I honestly don't even see anyone with especially high expectations for him at the major league level. I think the general sentiment that if you were ever going to give him a shot, this would be the time, and he's not gonna be worse than Dalbec or Smith. I mean, he could cut his AAA OPS in half and still be an upgrade.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on May 14, 2024 10:39:55 GMT -5
Not a great look for Speier to be making the statistical case for why Niko stinks, using data he does not have open access to, one paragraph below the Brian Abraham quotes.
|
|
asm18
Veteran
Posts: 1,134
|
Post by asm18 on May 14, 2024 11:07:52 GMT -5
Alex Speier today on Niko Kavadas: Yeah, color me extremely skeptical. If Dom Smith continues to perform poorly (it's been 9 games and 30 plate appearances) or someone gets hurt (Cooper gets hit like every other game), then sure go for it with Niko. But this seems like we're being set up to be excited for a guy's AAA performance only for him to get exposed by big league arms. www.bostonglobe.com/2024/05/14/sports/red-sox-minor-leagues-niko-kavadas/What's he gonna do, have a -12 wRC+? I honestly don't even see anyone with especially high expectations for him at the major league level. I think the general sentiment that if you were ever going to give him a shot, this would be the time, and he's not gonna be worse than Dalbec or Smith. I mean, he could cut his AAA OPS in half and still be an upgrade. In terms of projections, ZIPS has for Niko: .201/.326/.373 in 2024. For the rest of the season, Dom Smith projections: Steamer: .251/.319/.386 ZIPS: .271/.336/.419 I mean maybe he's just washed now and the computer is lagging behind that reality. But I would give him more than 9 games to prove that. Casas is on the 60 Day IL until late June so they have time to try Smith/Cooper out and pivot to Niko (or another alternative) if it's clear it's not gonna work
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,952
|
Post by ericmvan on May 14, 2024 11:16:33 GMT -5
The Red Sox had 7 hard-hit balls that were likely hits, and the Rays had 1.
And the expected total hits for the Sox was 5.1, and they got 6.
Of course, all but two of those came with the bases empty, and the sole out (Duran's liner to 1B) came with 2 outs and RISP.
How did the Rays score 5 times with just one impressive hit? The three hits in the first that produced the key runs had EV's of 93.1, 93.1, and 89.3, launch angle of 10, 13, and 15, and hit expectations of 64%, 95%, and 99%. And I know that hits of this sort, not hard but perfectly placed, look like acts of skill -- Xander
seemed to be good at it, for instance. Luis Arraez certainly seems to have this skill, but I have never been able to find any evidence that anyone else does. It seems as if you give it a shot and hope for luck. We don't notice failed attempts.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,952
|
Post by ericmvan on May 14, 2024 11:26:59 GMT -5
The story of the 2024 Red Sox: Triston Casas was off to a good start, with a 133 wRC+, improved defense, and 0.5 WAR in 22 games, on pace for almost 4 WAR.
Then he got hurt. And in 9 games as a LHH 1B replacement, Dom Smith has -0.5 WAR, entirely cancelling out Casas' contribution.
Yes, but he had a .441 wOBA with the bases empty and .094 with RISP. Hence, a -.15 Win Probability Added.
However, Dalbec is -.89, and Smith and Cooper are already -.65 and -.37.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,034
Member is Online
|
Post by nomar on May 14, 2024 12:32:44 GMT -5
Electric fastballs are way less common in AAA so I’m not going to hold Kavadas’ great numbers against him
|
|
|
Post by melvinhoggs on May 14, 2024 13:28:43 GMT -5
The Red Sox had 7 hard-hit balls that were likely hits, and the Rays had 1.
And the expected total hits for the Sox was 5.1, and they got 6.
Of course, all but two of those came with the bases empty, and the sole out (Duran's liner to 1B) came with 2 outs and RISP.
How did the Rays score 5 times with just one impressive hit? The three hits in the first that produced the key runs had EV's of 93.1, 93.1, and 89.3, launch angle of 10, 13, and 15, and hit expectations of 64%, 95%, and 99%. And I know that hits of this sort, not hard but perfectly placed, look like acts of skill -- Xander
seemed to be good at it, for instance. Luis Arraez certainly seems to have this skill, but I have never been able to find any evidence that anyone else does. It seems as if you give it a shot and hope for luck. We don't notice failed attempts.
Wait, what? Three hits, all with a >60% hit probability and two of them >90%, is considered "giving it a shot and hoping for luck"? I watched that sequence you're talking about, and nothing about it screamed bad luck to me. Rafaela barely missing an insane diving catch isn't bad luck, nor are line drives with "just" a 95% hit probability.
Edit: I'd also add that xBA is only based on EV and launch angle, so the argument that these hits were just perfectly placed doesn't make sense either – it's not measuring where they're falling in the field. The stat says that they were all hit hard enough and at a good enough launch angle to all be hits 64/95/99% of the time. You're not unlucky just because the other team isn't hitting 110+ MPH ropes all day.
|
|
asm18
Veteran
Posts: 1,134
|
Post by asm18 on May 14, 2024 13:57:28 GMT -5
What is the over/under on number of times Aaron Civale going to Northeastern is mentioned on the broadcast
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 14, 2024 18:14:56 GMT -5
Everyone knows it. The team can not repeat the division performance of last year. It will make a playoff run darn near impossible
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 14, 2024 18:15:29 GMT -5
Dagnamit !!
|
|
|
Post by trapperdan on May 14, 2024 18:22:42 GMT -5
Recognizing that the Sox lead the Majors in ERA, I'd be curious to see where they fall on the metric of runs given up after reaching two outs with nobody on. It feels like half of their opponents' scoring happens that way — including Lowe's homer just now.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on May 14, 2024 18:24:07 GMT -5
Offense is dead. Again
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 14, 2024 18:36:35 GMT -5
Come on Fellas, the objective is to swing the bat. 3 looking....let's stop that right now.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,489
Member is Online
|
Post by radiohix on May 14, 2024 18:42:18 GMT -5
It feels like Grissom get to a 3 balls count in every one of his at bats and didn't drew a single walk yet lol
|
|
|
Post by trapperdan on May 14, 2024 18:44:42 GMT -5
Let's see what Fatse and the boys have cooked up for us tonight. Zero runs? One run? The elusive two?
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on May 14, 2024 18:50:28 GMT -5
Let's see what Fatse and the boys have cooked up for us tonight. Zero runs? One run? The elusive two? Negative 3
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,034
Member is Online
|
Post by nomar on May 14, 2024 18:52:39 GMT -5
It feels like Grissom get to a 3 balls count in every one of his at bats and drew a single walk yet lol This is basically spring training for him, but I have to say he just doesn’t seem athletic at all. Slow, no bat speed, no hard contact. I’m glad the Sox have a lot of darts to throw at 2B in the system, because I’m not totally sold on any of them individually. Thats not to say he won’t turn out fine either, but he’s not showing much juice so far and Atlanta had been souring on him too.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,541
|
Post by cdj on May 14, 2024 18:55:06 GMT -5
Gas Masterson
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,541
|
Post by cdj on May 14, 2024 18:57:06 GMT -5
Rafaela is coming so close to plays of the year every game
|
|
|
Post by greenmonster on May 14, 2024 18:59:16 GMT -5
F_orget A_bout T_eam S_coring E_ver
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,034
Member is Online
|
Post by nomar on May 14, 2024 19:00:17 GMT -5
Look at this lineup. Hard to blame the hitting coach for the lack of offense IMO
|
|
|
Post by insanesoxfan on May 14, 2024 19:00:26 GMT -5
*whispers* Nicky P is dealing.
|
|
|