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25% of the Way Through And . . . .
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Post by Guidas on May 13, 2024 13:06:12 GMT -5
General Impressions:
- I don't think anyone (including the front office and field staff) expected the starters to be this good, or the pen for that matter.
- The team is hovering just above .500 but if not for a few weeks of shoddy (mostly infield) defense, they could be hovering near .600, and the pythag supports this.
- The loss of Cases and to a lesser extent, Story, loom rather large offensively. There are days when the team feels a basher short of winning a given game or making a bit of a run. Story's also missed defensively.
- Duran playing at an All Star level, and Abreu right behind him with an AS/ROY performance so far this year are great surprises. I was confident Duran had figured it out, but Abreu's been a revelation thus far. It will be interesting to see how much he regresses, or proves he's on a season-long tear. There are days when it feels like one or both of these two guys are carrying the team.
- There are also days it feels like they are wasting this pitching. Casas especially creates a hole in the line-up, but the lack of rope with Yoshida before his injury was disappointing. Despite the dearth of pop, his OBP (.348) and AVE (.275) were good enough for what he needs to be. I thought he was starting to look a bit more comfortable at the plate before he landed in Cora's doghouse. It's vital to figure out if he's going to be able to display enough pop with the OBP to justify the contract. Barring an OBP above .400, he'd need to keep current on-base levels and hit between 15-20 HRs and 30 or so doubles a year to do that. Doesn't seem impossible once he gets back to get on that pace, especially with the weather warming up, but the fact he seems to have zero defensive value to the team is disheartening because he'll have to suck-up most of the DH ABs. I hate the idea they will probably eat contract on him and sell low, but that seems like it could be in the cards.
- The team is fun to watch most days. It's still very early, but that's a big positive.
- Unfortunately, there are still stretches where they feel a player or three short of being a legit contender rather than just a team ambling along on the longest rebuild in this ownership's history. They are actually slightly behind where they were at this point last year (22-18).
- Biggest surprise: Tied between Abreu, the Staters ERA and Rafaela leading the team in RBI.
I'm sure all y'all have other impressions and areas of focus. Love to hear them. It's still early, but not too early.
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Post by incandenza on May 13, 2024 13:20:43 GMT -5
They somehow managed having four injured starters for a stretch just fine, but it's incredible not just that every infielder has gotten injured but that their replacements have universally been dreadful.
Rafaela + Valdez + Reyes + Dalbec + Cooper + Smith + Short + Hamilton = -2.9 WAR
Even with the terrible injury luck and the terrible clutch hitting, they would still be like 24-16 right now if they had merely gotten replacement-level play out of their replacements.
For me it's an open question as to whether this means that they have a surprising good team that is poised to get better as some guys return from injury and others (like Grissom and Cooper) acclimate; or whether it just means that they've squandered an incredibly good run with the pitching in the first quarter of the season with the horrible performances from the B team.
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Post by GyIantosca on May 19, 2024 21:11:18 GMT -5
I m rooting for this team but at trade dead line move who u can that not part of the core moving forward. I believe Breslow make goid deals.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 12, 2024 10:23:46 GMT -5
More like 40% of the way through now, but... Does it seem like almost every major move Breslow has made has worked out rather poorly so far?
- Giolito signing: can't blame Breslow for this, I don't think, but obviously it hasn't worked out well.
- Sale trade: the comparison of Sale to Grissom this season speaks for itself. But of course we all knew that this was about future value. The thing is, with the emergence of Hamilton and Valdez and Yorke both in the mix, it kind of feels like Grissom is less "second baseman of the future" and more "one of the guys in the mix at second base." Is that enough to get back for Sale (and eating his salary)?
- O'Neill trade: the thought was always that *if he's healthy* he'd be a boon to the lineup. But there's the catch. And he has an 88 wRC+ and 39% K rate since he smashed into Devers' skull.
- Bello extension: they maybe spent towards the higher end of what they needed to, and he's performed toward the lower end of expectations. (Though tbh I still feel pretty good about him in the long run.)
- Rafaela extension: I wonder if the thought was that he looked good with the bat in spring training and if that carried into the regular season he'd suddenly get pretty expensive. As it is, they've committed $50 million to a player who has yet to demonstrate he can actually hit in the majors and whose play at SS has been really poor. No question he's an elite defensive CFer, but as it turns out Duran kind of is too. So the only way to get value out of Rafaela is by pushing Duran to LF, where he loses some of his value. It's just not a very efficient arrangement.
- Verdugo trade: this one still seems good, but let me just register my annoyance at the very predictable fact that Verdugo is having a better season in New York than he ever did in Boston.
Honestly, I liked all these moves at the time (other than being iffy on the Rafaela extension). There's nothing to obviously criticize about the process. Things just haven't worked out great. Though it's all TBD as well.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 12, 2024 10:30:25 GMT -5
More like 40% of the way through now, but... Does it seem like almost every major move Breslow has made has worked out rather poorly so far? - Giolito signing: can't blame Breslow for this, I don't think, but obviously it hasn't worked out well. - Sale trade: the comparison of Sale to Grissom this season speaks for itself. But of course we all knew that this was about future value. The thing is, with the emergence of Hamilton and Valdez and Yorke both in the mix, it kind of feels like Grissom is less "second baseman of the future" and more "one of the guys in the mix at second base." Is that enough to get back for Sale (and eating his salary)? - O'Neill trade: the thought was always that *if he's healthy* he'd be a boon to the lineup. But there's the catch. And he has an 88 wRC+ and 39% K rate since he smashed into Devers' skull. - Bello extension: they maybe spent towards the higher end of what they needed to, and he's performed toward the lower end of expectations. (Though tbh I still feel pretty good about him in the long run.) - Rafaela extension: I wonder if the thought was that he looked good with the bat in spring training and if that carried into the regular season he'd suddenly get pretty expensive. As it is, they've committed $50 million to a player who has yet to demonstrate he can actually hit in the majors and whose play at SS has been really poor. No question he's an elite defensive CFer, but as it turns out Duran kind of is too. So the only way to get value out of Rafaela is by pushing Duran to LF, where he loses some of his value. It's just not a very efficient arrangement. - Verdugo trade: this one still seems good, but let me just register my annoyance at the very predictable fact that Verdugo is having a better season in New York than he ever did in Boston. Honestly, I liked all these moves at the time (other than being iffy on the Rafaela extension). There's nothing to obviously criticize about the process. Things just haven't worked out great. Though it's all TBD as well.
I thought the Sale/Grissom deal would be great for the Sox. I'm looking quite foolish on that one. I still believe Grissom can rake but at this point he needs to get fully healthy and hit at AAA again before getting another chance. At this point he doesnt deserve playing time over Hamilton or even Valdez at this point, but once O'Neill is dealt away they can put Rafaela back in CF and shift Hamilton back to short and if Grissom is healthy and hitting at AAA they can give him another look. Cant blame Breslow for grabbing a young prospect who has hit everywhere he's gone. The deal looks horrible now bit damn I thought it was a good deal. I still have hope for Grissom's bat. Not really feeling it this year, though. |
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 12, 2024 10:52:40 GMT -5
More like 40% of the way through now, but... Does it seem like almost every major move Breslow has made has worked out rather poorly so far?
- Giolito signing: can't blame Breslow for this, I don't think, but obviously it hasn't worked out well.
- Sale trade: the comparison of Sale to Grissom this season speaks for itself. But of course we all knew that this was about future value. The thing is, with the emergence of Hamilton and Valdez and Yorke both in the mix, it kind of feels like Grissom is less "second baseman of the future" and more "one of the guys in the mix at second base." Is that enough to get back for Sale (and eating his salary)?
- O'Neill trade: the thought was always that *if he's healthy* he'd be a boon to the lineup. But there's the catch. And he has an 88 wRC+ and 39% K rate since he smashed into Devers' skull.
- Bello extension: they maybe spent towards the higher end of what they needed to, and he's performed toward the lower end of expectations. (Though tbh I still feel pretty good about him in the long run.)
- Rafaela extension: I wonder if the thought was that he looked good with the bat in spring training and if that carried into the regular season he'd suddenly get pretty expensive. As it is, they've committed $50 million to a player who has yet to demonstrate he can actually hit in the majors and whose play at SS has been really poor. No question he's an elite defensive CFer, but as it turns out Duran kind of is too. So the only way to get value out of Rafaela is by pushing Duran to LF, where he loses some of his value. It's just not a very efficient arrangement.
- Verdugo trade: this one still seems good, but let me just register my annoyance at the very predictable fact that Verdugo is having a better season in New York than he ever did in Boston.
Honestly, I liked all these moves at the time (other than being iffy on the Rafaela extension). There's nothing to obviously criticize about the process. Things just haven't worked out great. Though it's all TBD as well.
I don't think it's fair to say the O'Neill trade has been bad. He's struggled lately but maybe it's just a cold streak, he still has a 133 wRC+ on the year (though a negative WPA because he's been so bad in the clutch). I'm optimistic that least one of the Bello/Rafaela extensions or the Sale/Grissom trade will look good long run too. |
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Post by incandenza on Jun 12, 2024 11:09:43 GMT -5
More like 40% of the way through now, but... Does it seem like almost every major move Breslow has made has worked out rather poorly so far?
- Giolito signing: can't blame Breslow for this, I don't think, but obviously it hasn't worked out well.
- Sale trade: the comparison of Sale to Grissom this season speaks for itself. But of course we all knew that this was about future value. The thing is, with the emergence of Hamilton and Valdez and Yorke both in the mix, it kind of feels like Grissom is less "second baseman of the future" and more "one of the guys in the mix at second base." Is that enough to get back for Sale (and eating his salary)?
- O'Neill trade: the thought was always that *if he's healthy* he'd be a boon to the lineup. But there's the catch. And he has an 88 wRC+ and 39% K rate since he smashed into Devers' skull.
- Bello extension: they maybe spent towards the higher end of what they needed to, and he's performed toward the lower end of expectations. (Though tbh I still feel pretty good about him in the long run.)
- Rafaela extension: I wonder if the thought was that he looked good with the bat in spring training and if that carried into the regular season he'd suddenly get pretty expensive. As it is, they've committed $50 million to a player who has yet to demonstrate he can actually hit in the majors and whose play at SS has been really poor. No question he's an elite defensive CFer, but as it turns out Duran kind of is too. So the only way to get value out of Rafaela is by pushing Duran to LF, where he loses some of his value. It's just not a very efficient arrangement.
- Verdugo trade: this one still seems good, but let me just register my annoyance at the very predictable fact that Verdugo is having a better season in New York than he ever did in Boston.
Honestly, I liked all these moves at the time (other than being iffy on the Rafaela extension). There's nothing to obviously criticize about the process. Things just haven't worked out great. Though it's all TBD as well.
I don't think it's fair to say the O'Neill trade has been bad. He's struggled lately but maybe it's just a cold streak, he still has a 133 wRC+ on the year (though a negative wRC+ because he's been so bad in the clutch). I'm optimistic that least one of the Bello/Rafaela extensions or the Sale/Grissom trade will look good long run too. You're right about O'Neill. In my head I was projecting forward the downward trend though I didn't make that clear. He was at 1.0 WAR on April 15th, the day of his concussion. 120 PAs later and he's at... 0.9 WAR. That's a pretty long cold streak if that's all it is. I'm a little bit worried that he got Rizzo'd. |
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Post by incandenza on Jun 12, 2024 11:17:06 GMT -5
I thought the Sale/Grissom deal would be great for the Sox. I'm looking quite foolish on that one. I still believe Grissom can rake but at this point he needs to get fully healthy and hit at AAA again before getting another chance. At this point he doesnt deserve playing time over Hamilton or even Valdez at this point, but once O'Neill is dealt away they can put Rafaela back in CF and shift Hamilton back to short and if Grissom is healthy and hitting at AAA they can give him another look. Cant blame Breslow for grabbing a young prospect who has hit everywhere he's gone. The deal looks horrible now bit damn I thought it was a good deal. I still have hope for Grissom's bat. Not really feeling it this year, though. I'm actually more optimistic about Grissom than this. I think his poor performance so far is totally a function of the injury/loss of spring training/poorly timed flu, and then on top of that some really bad BABIP luck when he finally was starting to look better. If anything the defensive performance, which was his biggest question mark, has been fairly encouraging.
It's more that this looks like less of a positional need given the depth they have at the position (which includes Story as well once Mayer comes up). So I just don't know that, in retrospect, this was the best use of Chris Sale as an asset.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Jun 12, 2024 11:17:19 GMT -5
Sale for Grissom hurts the most. Imagine what type of market value Sale would have at this point, pitching the way he has.
Grissom did not make a ton of sense to me at the time, and things have obviously trended significantly worse as of late.
The main upside imo was his MLB-readiness. We knew Mayer, Yorke, etc. were on their way, but Grissom was ready to go for '24.
Now, it looks as though his '24 will be a lost cause, and by the time '25 rolls around, he will be part of an overcrowded cast of MIF:
Story
Hamilton
Yorke
Valdez
Grissom
Mayer* (mid '25?)
If I could have 1 mulligan on the above list, it's the Sale trade, and it's not even close.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 12, 2024 11:21:03 GMT -5
For what it's worth, Giolito has been quite a bit more effective than Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery this year.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 12, 2024 11:27:24 GMT -5
Sale for Grissom hurts the most. Imagine what type of market value Sale would have at this point, pitching the way he has. Grissom did not make a ton of sense to me at the time, and things have obviously trended significantly worse as of late. The main upside imo was his MLB-readiness. We knew Mayer, Yorke, etc. were on their way, but Grissom was ready to go for '24. Now, it looks as though his '24 will be a lost cause, and by the time '25 rolls around, he will be part of an overcrowded cast of MIF: Story Hamilton Yorke Valdez Grissom Mayer* (mid '25?) If I could have 1 mulligan on the above list, it's the Sale trade, and it's not even close. How many times prior to this year did we say “this is the year that we will have a healthy sale for the entire season”. And then he got injured and missed a chunk of the season. Its like the boy who cried wolf. |
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Jun 12, 2024 11:34:56 GMT -5
I don’t think we should write off this season for Grissom. I think his season (and Jordan Montgomery’s) show how important spring training is for preparing for meaningful games. The guy missed all of spring, probably came back before he was fully ready, clearly didn’t have his timing down, and then got hurt again right as he was starting to heat up a bit. The batted ball numbers were looking good in recent weeks, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s an important player down the stretch.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 12, 2024 11:42:46 GMT -5
I thought the Sale/Grissom deal would be great for the Sox. I'm looking quite foolish on that one. I still believe Grissom can rake but at this point he needs to get fully healthy and hit at AAA again before getting another chance. At this point he doesnt deserve playing time over Hamilton or even Valdez at this point, but once O'Neill is dealt away they can put Rafaela back in CF and shift Hamilton back to short and if Grissom is healthy and hitting at AAA they can give him another look. Cant blame Breslow for grabbing a young prospect who has hit everywhere he's gone. The deal looks horrible now bit damn I thought it was a good deal. I still have hope for Grissom's bat. Not really feeling it this year, though. I'm actually more optimistic about Grissom than this. I think his poor performance so far is totally a function of the injury/loss of spring training/poorly timed flu, and then on top of that some really bad BABIP luck when he finally was starting to look better. If anything the defensive performance, which was his biggest question mark, has been fairly encouraging. It's more that this looks like less of a positional need given the depth they have at the position (which includes Story as well once Mayer comes up). So I just don't know that, in retrospect, this was the best use of Chris Sale as an asset.
I'm not down on Grissom. I thought he would be a sparkplug as soon as this season. Thought he might struggle a little given no spring training but would get hot post all star break. At this point though instead of hitting say .240 like I thought he might before hitting. 300 post all star break, he's at the point between injuries and a much worse performance, instead of being the gut at 2b, he has slid disn the depth chart. That said I still think he can be a .300 hitter, as soon as next season. Woukdnt bet my life on it, but I have trouble believing that he could hit everywhere at a young age but is incapable of making the jump to the majors and rake. I still think he does but it'll be tougher. I don't have much faith Story stays healthy next year. I still think Hamilton is more of a useful utility guy, but he sure as hell isnt acting like it. He's currently playing like an all star. |
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Post by bettsonmookie on Jun 12, 2024 11:48:14 GMT -5
I don’t think we should write off this season for Grissom. I think his season (and Jordan Montgomery’s) show how important spring training is for preparing for meaningful games. The guy missed all of spring, probably came back before he was fully ready, clearly didn’t have his timing down, and then got hurt again right as he was starting to heat up a bit. The batted ball numbers were looking good in recent weeks, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s an important player down the stretch. I sure hope so, but it does seem like with every solid performance from Hamilton, Yorke, and Mayer, his opportunity to prove himself becomes more difficult to envision. Much of my short-term concern is rooted in the MIF group becoming more crowded, particularly in '25 when Story returns. If MIF depth was a glaring need, I would have faith that in due time, we will see what he can do. But that is not the reality at MIF for the organization when we look ahead to next year. Will he be able to demonstrate what he is capable of at some point in '24? I hope so. But if not, how does he separate himself from the pack? Can he rebuild trade value in AAA? Probably not entirely. And if they move on from him, it will be pennies on the dollar relative to the cost of acquisition in the Sale trade. |
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Jun 12, 2024 11:55:14 GMT -5
I thought the Sale/Grissom deal would be great for the Sox. I'm looking quite foolish on that one. I still believe Grissom can rake but at this point he needs to get fully healthy and hit at AAA again before getting another chance. At this point he doesnt deserve playing time over Hamilton or even Valdez at this point, but once O'Neill is dealt away they can put Rafaela back in CF and shift Hamilton back to short and if Grissom is healthy and hitting at AAA they can give him another look. Cant blame Breslow for grabbing a young prospect who has hit everywhere he's gone. The deal looks horrible now bit damn I thought it was a good deal. I still have hope for Grissom's bat. Not really feeling it this year, though. I'm actually more optimistic about Grissom than this. I think his poor performance so far is totally a function of the injury/loss of spring training/poorly timed flu, and then on top of that some really bad BABIP luck when he finally was starting to look better. If anything the defensive performance, which was his biggest question mark, has been fairly encouraging.
It's more that this looks like less of a positional need given the depth they have at the position (which includes Story as well once Mayer comes up). So I just don't know that, in retrospect, this was the best use of Chris Sale as an asset.
I think they rushed Grissom too soon back, he missed all of ST basically, then he lost weight due to illness, but at the time of his recall 2B was such a hole offensively and defensively, and SS was also giving us trouble, so the Sox went all hands on deck. No one here would have bet 5 dollars on Sale remaining healthy for a full season, that being said, I didn't like that it was cost cutting move in an area we needed more depth in (SP). I guess we'll see how it turns out, everyone Grissom has played for thinks he's going to hit, but so many prospects are flaming out spectacularly that until I see it... (Kelnic, Torlkelson, Holiday) .. |
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Post by shagworthy on Jun 12, 2024 11:58:31 GMT -5
I don’t think we should write off this season for Grissom. I think his season (and Jordan Montgomery’s) show how important spring training is for preparing for meaningful games. The guy missed all of spring, probably came back before he was fully ready, clearly didn’t have his timing down, and then got hurt again right as he was starting to heat up a bit. The batted ball numbers were looking good in recent weeks, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s an important player down the stretch. I sure hope so, but it does seem like with every solid performance from Hamilton, Yorke, and Mayer, his opportunity to prove himself becomes more difficult to envision. Much of my short-term concern is rooted in the MIF group becoming more crowded, particularly in '25 when Story returns. If MIF depth was a glaring need, I would have faith that in due time, we will see what he can do. But that is not the reality at MIF for the organization when we look ahead to next year. Will he be able to demonstrate what he is capable of at some point in '24? I hope so. But if not, how does he separate himself from the pack? Can he rebuild trade value in AAA? Probably not entirely. And if they move on from him, it will be pennies on the dollar relative to the cost of acquisition in the Sale trade. Well, the one thing good with this flush of MI talent is we have chips to trade from that other teams are going to like when push comes to shove. That's how that is going to get sorted out. I think the deadline is going to be interesting because there are several guys they are likely to shop rather than having to roster them or loose them to rule 5. |
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Jun 12, 2024 12:02:02 GMT -5
I don’t think we should write off this season for Grissom. I think his season (and Jordan Montgomery’s) show how important spring training is for preparing for meaningful games. The guy missed all of spring, probably came back before he was fully ready, clearly didn’t have his timing down, and then got hurt again right as he was starting to heat up a bit. The batted ball numbers were looking good in recent weeks, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s an important player down the stretch. I sure hope so, but it does seem like with every solid performance from Hamilton, Yorke, and Mayer, his opportunity to prove himself becomes more difficult to envision. Much of my short-term concern is rooted in the MIF group becoming more crowded, particularly in '25 when Story returns. If MIF depth was a glaring need, I would have faith that in due time, we will see what he can do. But that is not the reality at MIF for the organization when we look ahead to next year. Will he be able to demonstrate what he is capable of at some point in '24? I hope so. But if not, how does he separate himself from the pack? Can he rebuild trade value in AAA? Probably not entirely. And if they move on from him, it will be pennies on the dollar relative to the cost of acquisition in the Sale trade. I guess I just don’t see that as an actual problem. I look at it the other way—if it turns out that we have too many cost-controlled, MLB-caliber middle infielders to play them all, then we’re in luck. I’d expect Grissom to get significant playing time still, at least in 2024, and he’ll have the opportunity to prove he belongs with that group. |
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Post by rhswanzey on Jun 12, 2024 12:06:02 GMT -5
Sale for Grissom hurts the most. Imagine what type of market value Sale would have at this point, pitching the way he has. Grissom did not make a ton of sense to me at the time, and things have obviously trended significantly worse as of late. The main upside imo was his MLB-readiness. We knew Mayer, Yorke, etc. were on their way, but Grissom was ready to go for '24. Now, it looks as though his '24 will be a lost cause, and by the time '25 rolls around, he will be part of an overcrowded cast of MIF: Story Hamilton Yorke Valdez Grissom Mayer* (mid '25?) If I could have 1 mulligan on the above list, it's the Sale trade, and it's not even close. None of the players on this list have had even a 2 WAR season in MLB except for Story, and he hasn’t done it since 2022 (or >2.5 WAR since 2019). Hamilton might do it in 2024 with another ~250 PA. I understand the depth point, but like, I kind of had the same reaction to reading in the lineup thread that we project to have a 3+ WAR player or top level prospect at every position, therefore it’s difficult to find almost any player that makes the team better. I feel this is a faulty assumption that overstate’s the team’s floor. |
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Post by jdb on Jun 13, 2024 7:02:29 GMT -5
It’s crazy how tight things are. Give us three extra wins and we have a game lead in 3rd WC but if you take three away we’d have a 2025 draft thread already about the 6th pick. Hopefully this works its way out in the next 45 days or so before the deadline.
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Post by costpet on Jun 13, 2024 8:25:37 GMT -5
A little off topic, but what is going on with Song? Haven’t heard a word in a long time.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 13, 2024 8:55:36 GMT -5
A little off topic, but what is going on with Song? Haven’t heard a word in a long time. He had TJ surgery in late March. |
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