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5/17-5/19 Red Sox @ Cardinals Series Thread
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Post by soxfansince67 on May 18, 2024 22:37:28 GMT -5
The team is now obviously pressing - another issue. Romy trying for second, Refsnyder throwing the ball before he had it - probably a lot of the overswinging into harmless pop up/fly balls, the sloppy errors - the team is just not in a good place right now. The drama of what to do at the trade deadline may not have drama at all. It may be obvious what to do.
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Post by rhswanzey on May 18, 2024 22:41:36 GMT -5
I’m tired of us all projecting out our 2025 and 2026 rosters, where most spots are already spoken for. We are littered with guys who probably have a couple 1.5-2.5 win seasons in them. We’re pretty light on guys who might pop into cornerstone pieces. The number one organizational priority has to be taking shot after shot at guys who could be that. Since the organization isn’t going to be much different than where it’s been at without doing that, we need to be more malleable with how everybody else fits around the guys who might or do pop.
I know this is all easier said than done, and is already being attempted by people who know lifetimes more than I know about roster building. But on the other hand, the most irritating thing about this past winter wasn’t keeping the wallet closed. It was putting Anthony, Mayer and Teel front and center, by name, as franchise saviors. How unfair to those kids, and not to mention, what a stupid plan that is. It’s a developmental success story if ONE of those guys pops into a true top end franchise anchor. It’s also a developmental success if all three turn into merely average to above average regulars. If the extent of the plan is to wait for those three to become the franchise anchors who walked and/or aged out of the prior championship core, that’s not much of a plan.
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Post by trapperdan on May 18, 2024 23:00:27 GMT -5
Surely a visit to the Trop will get this squad back on its feet.
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Post by incandenza on May 18, 2024 23:25:10 GMT -5
I’m tired of us all projecting out our 2025 and 2026 rosters, where most spots are already spoken for. We are littered with guys who probably have a couple 1.5-2.5 win seasons in them. We’re pretty light on guys who might pop into cornerstone pieces. The number one organizational priority has to be taking shot after shot at guys who could be that. Since the organization isn’t going to be much different than where it’s been at without doing that, we need to be more malleable with how everybody else fits around the guys who might or do pop. This is what was said before the season (by me, among others) but what's funny is this is like the exact opposite of how this season has played out. Duran's on a 6 WAR pace. Devers like 5 WAR. Wong 4 WAR. Abreu 4 WAR. Houck and Crawford 6 WAR each. Casas would be up there too if he hadn't gotten hurt. Tons of all-star type performances.
The problem is the 8 position players who have already combined for -3.5 WAR. If only they were 1.5-2.5 WAR players!
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Post by bluechip on May 18, 2024 23:31:12 GMT -5
Rob has a terrible terrible arm. Really shouldn’t be in right field. That is the trade off when Ref pinch hits for Abreu. The double was huge, but the drop off on defense bit us this time. Fair enough. O’Neill should move to right though. He has the superior arm.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on May 19, 2024 2:39:50 GMT -5
The constant element of losing winnable games in 2023 fashion is the manager. Tired of it.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on May 19, 2024 5:05:16 GMT -5
The constant element of losing winnable games in 2023 fashion is the manager. Tired of it. None of this year falls on Cora. He's doing the best with the roster he has. That amazing starting pitching run where all of the starters looked like Greg Maddux was great to give us all hope, now its time to look at reality. Yes the team should be better, but given all of the injuries its kind of a miracle they have over 15 wins so far.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 19, 2024 6:36:07 GMT -5
What a boring mediocre team. They surprisingly get great starting pitching, but they offset it with bad defense, a mediocre bullpen, horrendous situational hitting with too many strikeouts in key situations and bad baserunning as well. This will be their fifth meh season in 6 years and they'll miss the postseason yet again in an era where almost half the league makes the postseason. They're a dull team to watch, too, unfortunately. Smith is horrible. Grissom has been terrible. Smith should not be playing every day. Grissom might be better served going to AAA and getting his legs underneath him. Not having a spring training and then dropping all that weight in a short time has wreaked havoc with him. Ultimately I still believe this dude will rake, but it won't be now. I dont hate the Rafaela signing. Its ultimately utility man money and he'll at the very least serve in that capacity. I think he coukd be JBJ like in CF, but I'm not convinced at this point that he will make it as an every day CF, but he's RH and has major defensive skills so he'll be useful, particularly if the OF winds up all lefty as in Anthony, Duran, and Abreu, although Anthony is still a bit away. Making this season even more frustrating is the success of the Gerit Cole-less Yankees who are not letting the excuse of not having their Cy Young award winner around prevent them from playing well. I also dont like seeing Schmidt succeed because the Sox could have had him for Verdugo last year had Bloom pulled the trigger and I particularly dislike seeing him and Gil succeed while the guys they sent San Diego have done little as they pilfered Soto, a big bat I wish the Sox had. So yeah, that makes me all the more irritable. The good news is that normally it would piss me off that they wont be on accessible TV for me, but they're so dull to watch it's less bothersome not to see them play. Fwiw the bullpen is 2nd in baseball in ERA, and by a decent margin. If they’re mediocre then quite literally the entire league save for the Yankees has a mediocre bullpen
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 19, 2024 6:37:28 GMT -5
The constant element of losing winnable games in 2023 fashion is the manager. Tired of it. Yes and no Yes because the team makes a lot of dumb mistakes and some of his decisions are baffling No because they’re pretty untalented when so many people have been injured For the year I think he’s done a solid job given the patchwork done on this roster, and I consider myself one of the bigger AC critics
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 19, 2024 6:50:57 GMT -5
What a boring mediocre team. They surprisingly get great starting pitching, but they offset it with bad defense, a mediocre bullpen, horrendous situational hitting with too many strikeouts in key situations and bad baserunning as well. This will be their fifth meh season in 6 years and they'll miss the postseason yet again in an era where almost half the league makes the postseason. They're a dull team to watch, too, unfortunately. Smith is horrible. Grissom has been terrible. Smith should not be playing every day. Grissom might be better served going to AAA and getting his legs underneath him. Not having a spring training and then dropping all that weight in a short time has wreaked havoc with him. Ultimately I still believe this dude will rake, but it won't be now. I dont hate the Rafaela signing. Its ultimately utility man money and he'll at the very least serve in that capacity. I think he coukd be JBJ like in CF, but I'm not convinced at this point that he will make it as an every day CF, but he's RH and has major defensive skills so he'll be useful, particularly if the OF winds up all lefty as in Anthony, Duran, and Abreu, although Anthony is still a bit away. Making this season even more frustrating is the success of the Gerit Cole-less Yankees who are not letting the excuse of not having their Cy Young award winner around prevent them from playing well. I also dont like seeing Schmidt succeed because the Sox could have had him for Verdugo last year had Bloom pulled the trigger and I particularly dislike seeing him and Gil succeed while the guys they sent San Diego have done little as they pilfered Soto, a big bat I wish the Sox had. So yeah, that makes me all the more irritable. The good news is that normally it would piss me off that they wont be on accessible TV for me, but they're so dull to watch it's less bothersome not to see them play. Fwiw the bullpen is 2nd in baseball in ERA, and by a decent margin. If they’re mediocre then quite literally the entire league save for the Yankees has a mediocre bullpen I stand corrected. I see a number of late inning losses and blown saves, but ok the pen has been better than I think it is. Unfortunately it hasn't changed the bottom line.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 19, 2024 6:59:52 GMT -5
Fwiw the bullpen is 2nd in baseball in ERA, and by a decent margin. If they’re mediocre then quite literally the entire league save for the Yankees has a mediocre bullpen I stand corrected. I see a number of late inning losses and blown saves, but ok the pen has been better than I think it is. Unfortunately it hasn't changed the bottom line. Yeah it’s been a bizarre season. They’ve probably gotten the best pitching in the league and yet they’re below .500- and it is not surprising that they are below .500. Just really, really strange. They’re just bad at getting timely hits and often times shoot themselves in the foot The pitching being so good probably made some of these losses hurt more than last year- we lose a ton of competitive games. Bullpen def seems worse than it is because they have zero margin for error due to the lack of offense and bad defense, so when they give up a run it’s a big deal and we remember it because it’s usually putting us behind and making the game 2-1 or 3-2
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Post by notstarboard on May 19, 2024 8:01:37 GMT -5
I stand corrected. I see a number of late inning losses and blown saves, but ok the pen has been better than I think it is. Unfortunately it hasn't changed the bottom line. Yeah it’s been a bizarre season. They’ve probably gotten the best pitching in the league and yet they’re below .500- and it is not surprising that they are below .500. Just really, really strange. They’re just bad at getting timely hits and often times shoot themselves in the foot The pitching being so good probably made some of these losses hurt more than last year- we lose a ton of competitive games. Bullpen def seems worse than it is because they have zero margin for error due to the lack of offense and bad defense, so when they give up a run it’s a big deal and we remember it because it’s usually putting us behind and making the game 2-1 or 3-2 The most clutch team in the league so far has been Cleveland, with a Fangraphs clutch value of 1.86. This implies that they added 1.86 (WPA-derived) wins to their total due to their clutch hitting. This 1.86 is compared to what they would have had if they got typical production (for Cleveland) in clutch situations. In other words, a better offensive team would not have a high clutch score just because their offense is good; it's relative to the team's baseline. 27 of 30 teams have clutch scores between Cleveland's league-leading 1.86 and -1.15. The Red Sox are in dead last with a whopping -4.15. Last year they started off 26-20 with a clutch score of 1.62, good for 6th in MLB.
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Post by rhswanzey on May 19, 2024 9:03:00 GMT -5
I’m tired of us all projecting out our 2025 and 2026 rosters, where most spots are already spoken for. We are littered with guys who probably have a couple 1.5-2.5 win seasons in them. We’re pretty light on guys who might pop into cornerstone pieces. The number one organizational priority has to be taking shot after shot at guys who could be that. Since the organization isn’t going to be much different than where it’s been at without doing that, we need to be more malleable with how everybody else fits around the guys who might or do pop. This is what was said before the season (by me, among others) but what's funny is this is like the exact opposite of how this season has played out. Duran's on a 6 WAR pace. Devers like 5 WAR. Wong 4 WAR. Abreu 4 WAR. Houck and Crawford 6 WAR each. Casas would be up there too if he hadn't gotten hurt. Tons of all-star type performances.
The problem is the 8 position players who have already combined for -3.5 WAR. If only they were 1.5-2.5 WAR players!
Right, but it’s also May. The ones who are able to sustain this pace will be the subject of many offseason debates about whether that’s to be projected out going forward, or a career year with regression ahead. There were 58 players with 4 or more fWAR last season. Miami didn’t have any (top: Luzardo 3.7, Arraez 3.5). Milwaukee had only one (top: Contreras 5.7, Yelich 3.8). All ten other postseason teams had two, and in many cases, more. Atlanta had six! Our top guy, Devers (3.5, 81st) ranked low enough so that every postseason team had two or more players better than him. I’ve come into the past two seasons thinking that there are 1-2 guys who can get into that range, and then a very, very small handful with an outside chance (like, 80th+ percentile outcomes). That’s the core problem. It’s really hard for a 3.5 and fifteen ~2’s to win ninety games. So what I’m getting at is, OK, I can pencil this entire team in for next year, except for O’Neill. I think some of our roster build discussions take that (penciled in lineup) and run with it, to the point that all the lineup spots are accounted for, and rule out a bunch of potential targets before really even thinking about them. I mean, one time, we had Miguel Bleis in low A included in the “outfield logjam”. I just think this approach is backwards. We don’t have a hard time with “best player available” in the draft. The current roster isn’t good enough to use so much pen ink; it’s full of good or at least interesting players, who should nonetheless be freely shifted around or removed to accommodate whatever additional shots we have of getting into that top 58, where all the postseason teams live. Counting on two of Anthony, Mayer and Teel to be the two we place on the top 58, and we just sit back and wait for it to happen, isn’t a good plan. But that’s the plan we’ve been told about.
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Post by incandenza on May 19, 2024 9:25:29 GMT -5
This is what was said before the season (by me, among others) but what's funny is this is like the exact opposite of how this season has played out. Duran's on a 6 WAR pace. Devers like 5 WAR. Wong 4 WAR. Abreu 4 WAR. Houck and Crawford 6 WAR each. Casas would be up there too if he hadn't gotten hurt. Tons of all-star type performances.
The problem is the 8 position players who have already combined for -3.5 WAR. If only they were 1.5-2.5 WAR players!
Right, but it’s also May. The ones who are able to sustain this pace will be the subject of many offseason debates about whether that’s to be projected out going forward, or a career year with regression ahead. There were 58 players with 4 or more fWAR last season. Miami didn’t have any (top: Luzardo 3.7, Arraez 3.5). Milwaukee had only one (top: Contreras 5.7, Yelich 3.8). All ten other postseason teams had two, and in many cases, more. Atlanta had six!Our top guy, Devers (3.5, 81st) ranked low enough so that every postseason team had two or more players better than him. I’ve come into the past two seasons thinking that there are 1-2 guys who can get into that range, and then a very, very small handful with an outside chance (like, 80th+ percentile outcomes). That’s the core problem. It’s really hard for a 3.5 and fifteen ~2’s to win ninety games. So what I’m getting at is, OK, I can pencil this entire team in for next year, except for O’Neill. I think some of our roster build discussions take that (penciled in lineup) and run with it, to the point that all the lineup spots are accounted for, and rule out a bunch of potential targets before really even thinking about them. I mean, one time, we had Miguel Bleis in low A included in the “outfield logjam”. I just think this approach is backwards. We don’t have a hard time with “best player available” in the draft. The current roster isn’t good enough to use so much pen ink; it’s full of good or at least interesting players, who should nonetheless be freely shifted around or removed to accommodate whatever additional shots we have of getting into that top 58, where all the postseason teams live. Counting on two of Anthony, Mayer and Teel to be the two we place on the top 58, and we just sit back and wait for it to happen, isn’t a good plan. But that’s the plan we’ve been told about. So the average team has two 4 WAR players. Well if we're projeceting out the next couple of seasons I think the Red Sox have a very good chance to do better than that between Devers, Casas, Duran, and the starting pitchers. Maybe Abreu too, and maybe Grissom and Rafaela come around. That's before having to coung on Anthony, Mayer, and Teel.
I dunno, given the performances this season, I just don't see this as the problem. Seems to me like a very solid emerging core with a lot of upside. The trick for next season will be a) not to have a bunch of injuries, and b) to get replacement-level performances from the replacements.
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Post by bluechip on May 19, 2024 9:33:04 GMT -5
Sigh. I feel like they needed to take advantage of that miraculous starting pitching in the first quarter of the season to get to about 10 games over .500 so they could ride out a stretch like this. But instead the whole infield got injured, every replacement was comically dreadful, the clutch hitting was comically dreadful, and they were barely able to chug along at .500 *before* hitting the skids. Getting Casas back would be so so huge but at least a few of the nails may be in the coffin by the time that happens. That spectacular starting pitching is why they hovered at slightly above .500 for so long. Having this record while having lost the entire infield and DH for such a long stretch, it’s a miracle that they even have this record.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on May 19, 2024 9:37:05 GMT -5
Matt Carpenter is leading off for the Cardinals today. He is vulnerable to splitters:
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Post by scottysmalls on May 19, 2024 9:43:53 GMT -5
The poor situational hitting has to correct itself at some point. The Red Sox are on track for -14.6 clutch wins. Losing 15 games because their situational hitting is so below average. The worst clutch value any team had since 2000 is the 2016 Twins at -9.54.
It’s like the equivalent of replacing two all time great player seasons with replacement level ones.
It’s absurd and anomalous and even if they stay bad in the clutch they won’t stay this bad. The question is how much will it improve and what positive things will decline and to what extent.
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Post by rhswanzey on May 19, 2024 9:47:23 GMT -5
Right, but it’s also May. The ones who are able to sustain this pace will be the subject of many offseason debates about whether that’s to be projected out going forward, or a career year with regression ahead. There were 58 players with 4 or more fWAR last season. Miami didn’t have any (top: Luzardo 3.7, Arraez 3.5). Milwaukee had only one (top: Contreras 5.7, Yelich 3.8). All ten other postseason teams had two, and in many cases, more. Atlanta had six!Our top guy, Devers (3.5, 81st) ranked low enough so that every postseason team had two or more players better than him. I’ve come into the past two seasons thinking that there are 1-2 guys who can get into that range, and then a very, very small handful with an outside chance (like, 80th+ percentile outcomes). That’s the core problem. It’s really hard for a 3.5 and fifteen ~2’s to win ninety games. So what I’m getting at is, OK, I can pencil this entire team in for next year, except for O’Neill. I think some of our roster build discussions take that (penciled in lineup) and run with it, to the point that all the lineup spots are accounted for, and rule out a bunch of potential targets before really even thinking about them. I mean, one time, we had Miguel Bleis in low A included in the “outfield logjam”. I just think this approach is backwards. We don’t have a hard time with “best player available” in the draft. The current roster isn’t good enough to use so much pen ink; it’s full of good or at least interesting players, who should nonetheless be freely shifted around or removed to accommodate whatever additional shots we have of getting into that top 58, where all the postseason teams live. Counting on two of Anthony, Mayer and Teel to be the two we place on the top 58, and we just sit back and wait for it to happen, isn’t a good plan. But that’s the plan we’ve been told about. So the average team has two 4 WAR players. Well if we're projeceting out the next couple of seasons I think the Red Sox have a very good chance to do better than that between Devers, Casas, Duran, and the starting pitchers. Maybe Abreu too, and maybe Grissom and Rafaela come around. That's before having to coung on Anthony, Mayer, and Teel.
I dunno, given the performances this season, I just don't see this as the problem. Seems to me like a very solid emerging core with a lot of upside. The trick for next season will be a) not to have a bunch of injuries, and b) to get replacement-level performances from the replacements.
ZiPS 80th percentile projections gave us six guys above 3 WAR, and most just barely cleared 3 (Devers 5.1, Story/Yoshida 3.3, Casas/Rafaela 3.2, Bello 3.1). The 50th percentile gave us Devers at 3.6 and the only two (!) to clear two wins were Bello/Story (2.2). Some guys will project better heading into 2025 because of what they’re showing right now, of course. I’m also inclined to be more bullish on some of the players mentioned, but still, we are firmly in 90th+ percentile outcome territory to project a championship contending core out of this.
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Post by scottysmalls on May 19, 2024 10:03:55 GMT -5
So the average team has two 4 WAR players. Well if we're projeceting out the next couple of seasons I think the Red Sox have a very good chance to do better than that between Devers, Casas, Duran, and the starting pitchers. Maybe Abreu too, and maybe Grissom and Rafaela come around. That's before having to coung on Anthony, Mayer, and Teel.
I dunno, given the performances this season, I just don't see this as the problem. Seems to me like a very solid emerging core with a lot of upside. The trick for next season will be a) not to have a bunch of injuries, and b) to get replacement-level performances from the replacements.
ZiPS 80th percentile projections gave us six guys above 3 WAR, and most just barely cleared 3 (Devers 5.1, Story/Yoshida 3.3, Casas/Rafaela 3.2, Bello 3.1). The 50th percentile gave us Devers at 3.6 and the only two (!) to clear two wins were Bello/Story (2.2). Some guys will project better heading into 2025 because of what they’re showing right now, of course. I’m also inclined to be more bullish on some of the players mentioned, but still, we are firmly in 90th+ percentile outcome territory to project a championship contending core out of this. Can you define a championship core? If two 4 WAR players is the threshold you’re talking about I think it seems more likely than not that we project with at least that many, probably more, between Devers, Duran, Crawford, and Houck (especially when adding the possibilities that one of them isn’t but one of Abreu/Casas/Story/etc. is) right now for 2025. It’s definitely not a 90th percentile outcome that that happens.
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Post by incandenza on May 19, 2024 10:10:32 GMT -5
So the average team has two 4 WAR players. Well if we're projeceting out the next couple of seasons I think the Red Sox have a very good chance to do better than that between Devers, Casas, Duran, and the starting pitchers. Maybe Abreu too, and maybe Grissom and Rafaela come around. That's before having to coung on Anthony, Mayer, and Teel.
I dunno, given the performances this season, I just don't see this as the problem. Seems to me like a very solid emerging core with a lot of upside. The trick for next season will be a) not to have a bunch of injuries, and b) to get replacement-level performances from the replacements.
ZiPS 80th percentile projections gave us six guys above 3 WAR, and most just barely cleared 3 (Devers 5.1, Story/Yoshida 3.3, Casas/Rafaela 3.2, Bello 3.1). The 50th percentile gave us Devers at 3.6 and the only two (!) to clear two wins were Bello/Story (2.2). Some guys will project better heading into 2025 because of what they’re showing right now, of course. I’m also inclined to be more bullish on some of the players mentioned, but still, we are firmly in 90th+ percentile outcome territory to project a championship contending core out of this. Your argument keeps overlooking the evidence of what's happened this season. Like I said, I also thought this was the problem before this season. But the Zips projection on Devers always seemed low and he has indeed been exceeding it. Casas certainly looks better than the 1.9 WAR player Zips projected. Duran has taken a big leap and given how good his defense has been this year I think we ought to be doing a major update on what to expect out of him WAR-wise going forward. Abreu also has an offense/defense/good baserunning set of tools that translates to solid WAR totals. And Houck and Crawford have both already exceeded their season total Zips projection.
Some of the Zips projections themselves have already improved a lot. Preseason Zips projected Crawford for a 4.20 FIP and now projects him for 3.75. It projected Duran for a 95 wRC+ and now projects 107. Etc.
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Post by incandenza on May 19, 2024 10:21:08 GMT -5
Player A: -0.7 WAR 55 wRC+
-5 OAA in 188 innings at SS
Player B: 0.1 WAR 90 wRC+ -2 OAA in 108 innings at SS
Anyone want to guess which of these players has been treated with infinite patience and has widely been regarded as having stabilized the defense at SS, and which of these players has been treated to endless braying calls that he be immediately removed from the team almost from the moment he was called up?
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Post by rhswanzey on May 19, 2024 10:40:42 GMT -5
My response to scotty was going to be around “do projections really change that much with only 8 weeks of data”, but you already hit on it in the following post. It looks like they do.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 19, 2024 10:50:36 GMT -5
I am not one to put too much emphasis on injuries, because all teams have them. However, I think that has been very detrimental to this team. The players they were forced to sign and /or put out there just aren't really capable. Not fun to do deal with, because that streak a few weeks ago was great to watch and piqued my interest in this club, after having pretty low expectatiions for this year.
If they can stay .500 or above and within a few games of the wild card, they should still have a shot at the playoffs. Best I am hoping for at this point.
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Post by scottysmalls on May 19, 2024 10:54:05 GMT -5
My response to scotty was going to be around “do projections really change that much with only 8 weeks of data”, but you already hit on it in the following post. It looks like they do. Ill add my post was also probably a bit biased future looking. As in what Duran is doing looks sustainable to me, what Crawford and Houck are doing slightly less so, but even if they regress from this place they’re still going to look good. For them the stuff metrics seem to support it too. Devers didn’t take much adjusting to get over a 4.0 projection. If these guys fall off then yeah much less rosy looking. Something they still don’t look like they have to me is one of the elite elite like MVP caliber guys, but of course no one projects that way until they do it, and it’s not inconceivable for Devers or Casas to make it there. Houck and Crawford are on track on the pitching side right now and if they do somehow make it through the year up there then maybe that piece changes.
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Post by incandenza on May 19, 2024 11:18:41 GMT -5
My response to scotty was going to be around “do projections really change that much with only 8 weeks of data”, but you already hit on it in the following post. It looks like they do. This conversation got me curious to look back at the past Red Sox championship teams, and it turns out none of them had more than 5 players over 4 WAR. The 2013 team had only 3. The 2018 team, amazingly, had only 5 players over 3 WAR! (But it helps when one player has 10 by himself.)
The 2023 Rangers had 3. The 2022 Astros had 6. The 2021 Braves had 4. The 2019 Nationals had 6.
YMMV as to whether a near-future Red Sox team has a good shot at having five 4 WAR players, but in any case it looks like that is about the standard for a championship team.
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