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Is this the best Red Sox farm ever?
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on May 12, 2013 19:39:38 GMT -5
Gotta say it. Look at the large number of high upside guys who are actually performing well. Especially the high end pitching talent. Before long Ranaudo should crack the top 10. Look at these guys and tell me a better Redsox farm situation, based upon projectability, value and current performances. And we will soon add a #7 pick.
Bogaerts Bradley Webster De La Rosa Cecchini Owens Brentz Iglesias Swihart Ranaudo Workman Marrero Coyle
Not to mention the many others like Vasquez...etc.
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Post by wcsoxfan on May 12, 2013 19:52:38 GMT -5
I like how the prospects are looking so far, but that looks like 5 top 100 prospects to me. Good, but not great.
Bogaerts Bradley Webster De La Rosa (not an actual prospect - similar to Kalish) Cecchini Owens (border top 100) Brentz (good) Iglesias (power is a up slightly but still waiting for the plate discipline) Swihart (talent is there but can't count on him yet) Ranaudo (good bounce back but has more to prove) Workman (future setup man) Marrero (about as good as epxected so far - shown little power) Coyle (still figuring out strike zone in second year of high A)
Sorry about being a buzzkill, but I think we have to wait for the draft (as you mentioned) before this group gets into 'best sox prospects ever' territory.
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Post by jmei on May 12, 2013 19:59:48 GMT -5
www.soxprospects.com/history.htmCheck out September, 2005: 1. Jonathan Papelbon 2. Jon Lester 3. Anibal Sanchez 4. Hanley Ramirez 5. Craig Hansen 6. Manny Delcarmen 7. Dustin Pedroia 8. Kelly Shoppach 9. Brandon Moss 10. David Pauley 11. Daniel Murphy 13. Jacoby Ellsbury 14. Jed Lowrie 17. Clay Buchholz Every player in the top 10 played at least a season's worth in MLB and there are seven All-Star-caliber players in the top 20. That's going to be tough to beat.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on May 12, 2013 20:03:36 GMT -5
I like the upside of this group. Agreed on De La Rosa but he is young and not in the majors. Technically not a prospect but effectively a member of the farm. The tools and actual performances of these guys appear to me to be better than any Redsox farm I've seen. Bogaerts looks every bit as good as Hanley looked in the minors. The starting pitching talent is higher than at any point i've seen.
Everyone has an opinion. I have no problem with differing positions. I think we have quite a few guys who are potential stars in the majors. And lots of them are pitchers, which are so much in demand right now. You can't trade for top young pitching talent without giving up loads of other talent to get them. Look at some of the recent trades made for young starting pitching, for example the Latos trade. I like where we are on the farm a lot.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on May 12, 2013 20:15:59 GMT -5
www.soxprospects.com/history.htmCheck out September, 2005: 1. Jonathan Papelbon 2. Jon Lester 3. Anibal Sanchez 4. Hanley Ramirez 5. Craig Hansen 6. Manny Delcarmen 7. Dustin Pedroia 8. Kelly Shoppach 9. Brandon Moss 10. David Pauley 11. Daniel Murphy 13. Jacoby Ellsbury 14. Jed Lowrie 17. Clay Buchholz Every player in the top 10 played at least a season's worth in MLB and there are seven All-Star-caliber players in the top 20. That's going to be tough to beat. You've got a point! If we count some of our guys in the lower minors we could add to the list as well, with the advantage of hindsight. Lot's of the guys above didn't look like studs at the time. Guys like Pedroia didn't look like probable all stars at the time. Several of these guys looked to be also rans but went on to have decent careers. We probably have some guys like that right now. Is Lavarnway a future Shoppach or would we look at both of their numbers in the minors and project Lavarnway and guys like Vasquez actually higher? At this point I concede your position as probably stronger but we do not know if guys like Montas, Johnson...etc ( the lower minors guys ) will go on to eventual solid mlb careers or even all stars like Ellsbury and Buchholz did at the time. If we looked at 2005 as a snapshot in time, compared to today, a strong case could be made that this farm looks better. To me. We went on to win the WS in 2007. I like the trend line!
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Post by godot on May 12, 2013 20:19:41 GMT -5
Good thought piece. For what it is worth, I would wait a month or so before judging what we have down on the farm. Most of the players on the list have some warts. some more than others. Can Julio hit more than 230 at AAA? Bradley was totally over matched at the majors and is even adjusting to AAA. Webster is still questionable, and De La Rosa was hiving mechanical issues and has less than a fluid delivery ( maybe this is changing). Brentz really is not showing much other than he has a few streaks. X-Man is not exactly tearing it up. Aren't Ranaudo, Workmam, and Barnes a tad old for AA. Let's see what Lavarnway can show? Did he lose his power?
I will not even bother about those below AA, other than Cecchini who may just be real
So who is there to replace Middlebrooks this year or even next? Who are outfielders that can help now or next year? Is Lavernway the catcher of the future? Any help on the horizon for the pen, and we know the bumpy learning curve for starters.
Now in a month or so they may answer some questions but for now just watching.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 12, 2013 20:21:29 GMT -5
Historically, I wouldn't think so. The 1967 Red Sox were largely built on homegrown talent. That '67 team was a young team. Dick O'Connell did a tremendous job building up the young talent base.
The 1975 team was also a young team that looked like it had future pennants ahead of them. Lynn and Rice were amazing and they were coming off the heels of an organization that produced Dwight Evans, Rick Burleson, Carlton Fisk, Juan Beniquez, Cecil Cooper, Ben Oglivie, and that includes guys with some great numbers like Jack Baker who for some reason never really got a legit shot.
The entire 1988 division winning Sox lineup was completely homegrown and it included Burks and Greenwell. Earlier in the decade, the Sox system had a young Roger Clemens in it and just before that had Hurst, Ojeda, and Wade Boggs.
I really like the direction the farm system is going in, but I don't know that I can declare it the greatest Sox farm system of all time.
And I'd also be remiss if I didn't mention that from 1939 - 1942, the Sox brought up Ted Williams, Dom DiMaggio, and Johnny Pesky and also produced Boo Ferriss and Tex Hughson around that general time period as well.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on May 12, 2013 20:35:21 GMT -5
I should have noted this as in the post draft era. Back in 1912 we have pretty good talent as well!
I'm just saying at this point in time and probably even more so in another month after the high draft position, this farm looks as strong as any Redsox farm i've seen. Who knows what happens going forward but there is a chance this farm ends up as epic!
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on May 12, 2013 20:38:39 GMT -5
Gotta give some solid street cred to that 1967 team as well. Lots of those guys emerged at around the same time with Yaz and Conig, Lomborg all becoming major talents.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 12, 2013 22:05:39 GMT -5
Gotta give some solid street cred to that 1967 team as well. Lots of those guys emerged at around the same time with Yaz and Conig, Lomborg all becoming major talents. If you're talking post-draft then I'd say the Sox had that big influx of talent during the early-to-mid 1970s, and of course, even though they weren't in the farm system quite at the same time the Sox developed Wade Boggs who broke thru in 1982 and drafted Clemens in 1983, in which he shot thru the system - and I remember watching him pitch at Beehive Field in 1983 absolutely dominating the opposing team. My point is that in short order the Sox developed two massive talents although Boggs wasn't really considered that big a talent at the time, although now adays we'd pay more attention to guys with ridiculously big OBPs. The Sox would be very fortunate to get one guy even close to that talent level. I do like the overall depth and am heartened by the performances of Barnes, Workman, and Ranaudo in AA. And when all is said and done, I cannot wait to see what Bogaerts becomes. I used to think of him as Hanley Ramirez without the lousy attitude, but Bogaerts can be so much more. I think he Cecchini are the guys who will eventually bat 3-4 in the Sox lineup, although I have no idea at what positions. The Sox don't really have any can't miss guys on the mound, but there sure are alot of intriguing options, and despite the high ERA and HR/9, I like the K/BB figures that the hard throwing kid (Montas?) in A ball is putting up. I expect that Webster, De La Rosa, Barnes, and Ranaudo will be pushing for spots in the rotation by 2014/2015 and then eventually Owens. I'm intrigued by Swihart and think that he and Vazquez can be quite a catching combo down the road. I'd like to see another impact power bat and impact arm (Stewart?) come into the system. I'd like to see another Anthony Rizzo type guy at 1b, but that's not there. If Coyle keeps doing what he's doing, it'll be interesting to see if he can eventually challenge an aging Pedroia down the road. Bradley should be a solid leadoff man/sparkplug with a knowledge of the strike zone I doubt Ellsbury will ever have, and I have some hope that Brentz won't be WMB/Reddick in terms of plate discipline. I do hope the Sox come up with a potential closer at some point down there and I don't mean De La Rosa. I hate seeing the Sox throw money/players at closers.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 12, 2013 22:32:45 GMT -5
Boggs and Clemens combined for something in the neighborhood of 230 career wins above replacement depending on what numbers you're looking at. You could get like five all-stars out of the current crop without matching that.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on May 13, 2013 6:38:54 GMT -5
www.soxprospects.com/history.htmCheck out September, 2005: 1. Jonathan Papelbon 2. Jon Lester 3. Anibal Sanchez 4. Hanley Ramirez 5. Craig Hansen 6. Manny Delcarmen 7. Dustin Pedroia 8. Kelly Shoppach 9. Brandon Moss 10. David Pauley 11. Daniel Murphy 13. Jacoby Ellsbury 14. Jed Lowrie 17. Clay Buchholz Every player in the top 10 played at least a season's worth in MLB and there are seven All-Star-caliber players in the top 20. That's going to be tough to beat. This list has one MVP, two MVP runners up, three no-hitters, two top-6 CY Young, 2 ROYs, a ROY runnerup. It's possible that we have sleeper stars in our top 20 now, but it's also possible that we have big talents that will flop like Lars.
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Post by James Dunne on May 13, 2013 6:49:18 GMT -5
The 1988 starting lineup was entirely homegrown, as well as the top two starting pitchers. The #3 starter, Mike Boddicker, was acquired for Brady Anderson and Curt Schilling. A lot of talent came through the system in that period.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 13, 2013 9:24:14 GMT -5
The fact of the matter is, you can never answer this question. Hindsight is 20/20 and we're at least 5 years away from knowing how this snap shot in time starts to compare to other snap shots.
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Post by rdsxmbnt on May 13, 2013 9:44:55 GMT -5
Even without hindsight it would be pretty tough to top that late 05-early 06 list. In terms of top 100 (BA) guys: Lester (#22) Hanley (#30) Papelbon (#37) Sanchez (#40) Hansen (#54) Pedroia (#77)
Plus you have the other 4 first round picks in addition to Hansen that had just been drafted (Lowrie, Buchholz, Ellsbury, Bowden)
Right now before this season you had: Bogaerts (#8) Bradley (#31) Barnes (#40) Webster (#49) Owens (#91)
Cecchini is definitely a top 100 guy now, and have to think Owens, Webster have improved their stock also. RDLR is maybe a top 50 guy also if he was still a prospect. Right now I think it lags a bit behind the 05/06 crop in terms of perceived value NOW (and the perceived value of the 05/06 class then). But add the #7 pick and continued improvement by those guys and also Ranuado/Swihart and I think it's a very interesting discussion. Good place to be in either way.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 13, 2013 10:02:17 GMT -5
The fact of the matter is, you can never answer this question. Hindsight is 20/20 and we're at least 5 years away from knowing how this snap shot in time starts to compare to other snap shots. As rjp points out, we're years from where we could even begin evaluating, let alone rating, the current crop. For me it's a matter of trends. There have been real swings in the system, times when there were 3-4 year droughts in player production. That's counterbalanced by periods like this one, and those in the past which others have listed, when the system looks set to produce a few good ML players, maybe quite a few. The minor league system is well-stocked again. I'd like it to stay that way for a while, but it may be harder going forward. The rules have really changed, including those for international sign-ups.
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danr
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Post by danr on May 13, 2013 10:50:54 GMT -5
I agree that it is a bit too early to assess the current crop, but I think it is a bit shy of superstar talent. There appear to be a number of prospects who have a real shot to make the majors, if they continue to develop. However, who among them right now appears to be so good that he could take a job away from one of the regulars, rather than just replace players who have moved on, or been moved on? Who looks good enough to accelerate through the system, as often happens with superstar talent?
Bradley, Bogaerts and Webster do seem to fit that definition. Cecchini and Owens may, possibly Marrero and Coyle. Let's see what happens with promotions a few weeks from now.
I'm not sold on the other high-ranked pitchers. However, I'd like to see the Sox try to develop one or two of them as a closer, ala how Papelbon was converted. Do any of them possess the kind of personality and skills to be a dominant closer?
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Post by Guidas on May 13, 2013 13:43:41 GMT -5
www.soxprospects.com/history.htmCheck out September, 2005: 1. Jonathan Papelbon 2. Jon Lester 3. Anibal Sanchez 4. Hanley Ramirez 5. Craig Hansen 6. Manny Delcarmen 7. Dustin Pedroia 8. Kelly Shoppach 9. Brandon Moss 10. David Pauley 11. Daniel Murphy 13. Jacoby Ellsbury 14. Jed Lowrie 17. Clay Buchholz Every player in the top 10 played at least a season's worth in MLB and there are seven All-Star-caliber players in the top 20. That's going to be tough to beat. We don't know how the current prospects will advance or how many will become average MLB players or better, but one could've theoretically traded any three to four from the list above for an elite MLB player and still have two or more who very good or better MLB performers. Personally I can't say the same for our current list of prospects. The system is good, but it's not Sept 2005 good. Well played, jmei.
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Post by brianthetaoist on May 13, 2013 14:29:09 GMT -5
That 05-06 group is notable more, i think, for how good they ended up being rather than how well regarded they were at the time. Six top 100s is good but not historic or anything, and only Lester squeaked into the end of the top 20. But all of them (outside of the bust in Craig Hansen) ended up being very good major league players. Plus the lower level guys (Ellsbury and Buchholz, particularly) that ended up being well-regarded prospects and good players, and some other guys that have carved out careers without ever cracking a top 100. I don't have any empirical data on this or anything, but that's an outstanding hit rate on prospects ...
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on May 13, 2013 15:18:25 GMT -5
Was Hanley regarded more highly as a prospect back in AA and AAA ball than Bogaerts? I know Hanley was probably considered stronger defensively at SS but Bogaerts appears to have a better hit tool, at least he has at a comparable time in the minors. Considering the perception at the time, I think all the periods noted above are certainly in the discussion and the 05 period hit rate was clearly outstanding. I would think we should be able to crack the top 5 this year in terms of mlb farms. We have the strongest position right now that we have had for a while and at least some of these guys are in the potential superstar discussion, if Hanley was.
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Post by johnsilver52 on May 13, 2013 17:08:44 GMT -5
Historically, I wouldn't think so. The 1967 Red Sox were largely built on homegrown talent. That '67 team was a young team. Dick O'Connell did a tremendous job building up the young talent base. The 1975 team was also a young team that looked like it had future pennants ahead of them. Lynn and Rice were amazing and they were coming off the heels of an organization that produced Dwight Evans, Rick Burleson, Carlton Fisk, Juan Beniquez, Cecil Cooper, Ben Oglivie, and that includes guys with some great numbers like Jack Baker who for some reason never really got a legit shot. The entire 1988 division winning Sox lineup was completely homegrown and it included Burks and Greenwell. Earlier in the decade, the Sox system had a young Roger Clemens in it and just before that had Hurst, Ojeda, and Wade Boggs. I really like the direction the farm system is going in, but I don't know that I can declare it the greatest Sox farm system of all time. And I'd also be remiss if I didn't mention that from 1939 - 1942, the Sox brought up Ted Williams, Dom DiMaggio, and Johnny Pesky and also produced Boo Ferriss and Tex Hughson around that general time period as well. Some of the guys drafted under Sullivan and really in the 70's just weren't very good. Yeah, Lynn, Rice, Hurst were, but the big thumpers were not. Otis Foster was a waste, as was Baker who swung at everything and couldn't move 2 steps at 1st base and played a position already covered well at the big league level.
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Post by soxcentral on May 13, 2013 19:37:52 GMT -5
Maybe this title should change to 'Could This Be The Best Red Sox Farm System Ever?'
Just quickly going back to what is here already and other times I remember being productive in the early and late 80's, this class would need at least 12 major league contributors with most of them being quite productive, plus it will need to boast multiple MVP/Cy Young candidates just to keep up with these three groups:
Mid-2000's All-Star Jonathan Papelbon Jon Lester Anibal Sanchez Hanley Ramirez Dustin Pedroia Jacoby Ellsbury
Key Major Leaguer Manny Delcarmen Kelly Shoppach Daniel Murphy Jed Lowrie Clay Buchholz
Major League Regular - not productive Craig Hansen Brandon Moss David Pauley
Late 1980's All-Star Mike Greenwell Ellis Burks Jeff Bagwell Brady Anderson Curt Schilling
Key Major Leaguer Scott Cooper Tom Bolton Tim Naehring Carlos Quintana Jody Reed
Major League Regular - not productive Phil Plantier Sam Horn
Early 1980's All-Star Roger Clemens Wade Boggs John Tudor
Key Major Leaguer Bruce Hurst Bob Ojeda Oil Can Boyd Rich Gedman Marty Barrett Steve Crawford Al Nipper Dave Stapleton Steve Lyons
So who can you dream of reaching that level?
Potential All-Star Bogaerts Bradley Webster De La Rosa Cecchini
Key Major Leaguer Owens Brentz Iglesias Swihart Ranaudo Workman Marrero Coyle
So in a perfect world this class would need to hit on either all the above, or many plus a couple other key contributors to be on par with earlier crops dating back just to the 80's. This group has a ton of potential, but would need to really achieve a lot to be the best ever.
By the way lots to pick apart there from an omission and category standpoint, just wanted to set a baseline.
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Post by burythehammer on May 14, 2013 5:47:42 GMT -5
That 2005 list is unreal.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on May 14, 2013 6:43:11 GMT -5
Comparison of where Xander and Hanley were at similar stages, concluding that Xander showed power much earlier and had the better makeup, whereas Hanley had the speed and was much much more likely to stay at SS. firebrandal.com/2013/01/07/xander-bogaerts-vs-hanley-ramirez/Though it's also easy to find myriad references to Hanley's "five-tool" talent and raw power in googling 2001-2004.
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Post by Guidas on May 14, 2013 8:38:14 GMT -5
At this point I have a hard time imaging both Webster or De La Rosa as All Stars considering both have a history of control problems. Really need to see more track record from both of them. Bogaerts yes. Bradley, maybe (but remember he'll be playing in a league with Adam Jones, Mike Trout, Alex Meyer, Austin Jackson, and for the next few years Nick Markakis and Joey Bats). Cecchini potentially if he remains at 3rd.
But honestly, if these perceptions of All Star potential for Webster, De La Rosa and even Bradley is currently held by front offices around the league, the Sox may want to consider packaging some of those guys for a young controllable All Star or two right now.
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