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Is this the best Red Sox farm ever?
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2013 12:21:11 GMT -5
Mid-2000'sAll-StarJonathan Papelbon Jon Lester Anibal Sanchez Hanley Ramirez Dustin Pedroia Jacoby Ellsbury Key Major LeaguerManny Delcarmen Kelly Shoppach Daniel Murphy Jed Lowrie Clay Buchholz Buchholz was an All Star in 2010 by the way and will be this year. The Sox had a great farm system in the early '80s and in the mid 2000's. This led to winning years and a WS trophy. With this current core of good prospects now, assuming most of them will reach their potential, and assuming none of them great traded (I really hope NONE are traded. I like young and great teams), they Sox could be that young and great team in two or three years. You hear talk about great young teams (Current Nationals, 2008 Rays, '95 Indians, etc.) and think of how great it would be if the Sox could be that young great team consistently making the playoffs on a low payroll, because of all the guys on rookie contracts. This could be the future lineup: CF Bradley RF Victorino/ Kalish 2B Pedroia SS Bogaerts DH Lavarnway 3B Middlebrooks LF Brentz 1B Shaw C Vazquez Cecchini, Almanzar, Swihart, and Marrero are looming. Cecchini is one of the Sox's best prospect and he could be a starting position player too, I just don't know exactly where to put him because of WMB. and rotation: LHP Lester RHP Buchholz RHP Barnes RHP Ranaudo RHP Webster LHP Owens Closer RDLR Workman, Johnson, Britton, and Kukuk are looming Thats basically 6 Starters who could be number 1-3 starters. Maybe no back-end starters. The Sox could have a GREAT young team in a few years, and then can only be accomplished by letting them develop in their system instead of unloading half of them to rent a player for two months. I'm all for a young team, not sure about everyone else, but that could be a WS team. It will just take 2-3 years of patience. Plus, Ellsbury and Salty can be unloaded for more good prospects and the Sox have the #7 pick this year.
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Post by tjb21 on May 15, 2013 15:21:06 GMT -5
Mid-2000'sAll-StarJonathan Papelbon Jon Lester Anibal Sanchez Hanley Ramirez Dustin Pedroia Jacoby Ellsbury Key Major LeaguerManny Delcarmen Kelly Shoppach Daniel Murphy Jed Lowrie Clay Buchholz Buchholz was an All Star in 2010 by the way and will be this year. The Sox had a great farm system in the early '80s and in the mid 2000's. This led to winning years and a WS trophy. With this current core of good prospects now, assuming most of them will reach their potential, and assuming none of them great traded (I really hope NONE are traded. I like young and great teams), they Sox could be that young and great team in two or three years. You hear talk about great young teams (Current Nationals, 2008 Rays, '95 Indians, etc.) and think of how great it would be if the Sox could be that young great team consistently making the playoffs on a low payroll, because of all the guys on rookie contracts. This could be the future lineup: CF Bradley RF Victorino/ Kalish 2B Pedroia SS Bogaerts DH Lavarnway 3B Middlebrooks LF Brentz 1B Shaw C Vazquez Cecchini, Almanzar, Swihart, and Marrero are looming. Cecchini is one of the Sox's best prospect and he could be a starting position player too, I just don't know exactly where to put him because of WMB. and rotation: LHP Lester RHP Buchholz RHP Barnes RHP Ranaudo RHP Webster LHP Owens Closer RDLR Workman, Johnson, Britton, and Kukuk are looming Thats basically 6 Starters who could be number 1-3 starters. Maybe no back-end starters. The Sox could have a GREAT young team in a few years, and then can only be accomplished by letting them develop in their system instead of unloading half of them to rent a player for two months. I'm all for a young team, not sure about everyone else, but that could be a WS team. It will just take 2-3 years of patience. Plus, Ellsbury and Salty can be unloaded for more good prospects and the Sox have the #7 pick this year. Dodgers want him too?
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2013 15:39:14 GMT -5
I think the argument could be made that this lineup would have several below average players. Lavarnway, Vazquez, Victorino, Shaw all easily project by some to be below average. Further, I don't see Middlebrooks as a lock major league regular either. I understand that he's not going to walk a lot, but he can't strike out 30% of the time and be an effective major leaguer.
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Post by Guidas on May 15, 2013 16:02:39 GMT -5
I think you have to add Kalish into below average mix until he can prove he can have a healthy season and perform again at his pre-chronic injuries levels. Larvarnway may be another Lars - i.e should've traded him while the hype was at its peak. Ditto Middlebrooks.
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Post by burythehammer on May 15, 2013 16:06:58 GMT -5
I would put the chances of that ever being our lineup, even for a game, at less than 1%.
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Post by godot on May 15, 2013 17:13:04 GMT -5
Funny, this thread was suggesting this was the best farm system ever, but after reading it and taking a closer look at the prospects' performances at this point, I am starting to become pessimistic. Many of those with the prospect label have either digressed , shown slight improvements, or are just questionable. Something smells in Denmark,- scouting, coaching ? I know many are giddy about the 3 pitchers at Portland, but they are college grads and at their age, they should be knocking loudly at the door. Heck, even the X-Man is wandering these days ( for whatever reasons). Right now there aren't any replacements for first, second, third, and the outfield, and Iggy is now stalled. ( Can't count Bradly Jr. because of how he was so over his head at the majors and is now injured.) And I am being optimistic about catching. Please show me I am wrong. Maybe its the weather in the NW and their slump
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 15, 2013 17:23:42 GMT -5
This could be the future lineup: CF Bradley RF Victorino/ Kalish 2B Pedroia SS Bogaerts DH Lavarnway 3B Middlebrooks LF Brentz 1B Shaw C Vazquez Cecchini, Almanzar, Swihart, and Marrero are looming. Cecchini is one of the Sox's best prospect and he could be a starting position player too, I just don't know exactly where to put him because of WMB. I don't know what to say about this other than that I've seen this exact post with different names every single year for the last ten years and guess what? It never works out.
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Post by ray88h66 on May 15, 2013 17:45:11 GMT -5
My answer to the original question is no. Without knowing how far this current group will go there is little chance of them matching the early 80's or 70's group. Us old guys all knew about Lynn and Evans ,and Rice before they got to Boston and we didn't have the internet or great sites like this to follow them. The Rocket was ready to pitch out of college and Boggs was held back . We only have one guy that could be close to them now. It's still a good group , but not close to the best.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on May 15, 2013 20:42:09 GMT -5
I think others have made great points and probably are right in many ways, especially in regard to 2005 but if truly looked at as a snapshot in time, compared to other snapshots in time ( apples to apples ) as I originally intended it this farm is right there with any of them in my opinion. It may well not end up as prolific as 2005 but it has a great chance of being excellent.
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2013 20:48:10 GMT -5
Godot you shouldn't be too pessmistic either. I think there are many teams that would love to have a stable of arms where arguably the 8th best guy throw triple digits.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 15, 2013 22:06:04 GMT -5
Godot you shouldn't be too pessmistic either. I think there are many teams that would love to have a stable of arms where arguably the 8th best guy throw triple digits. It's the nature of a farm system. Every prospect has a wide range of possible outcomes and if you want to go completely optimistic, you can imagine a completely home-grown lineup of all-stars. The flip side is that if you want to be completely pessimistic, you can find reasons why all these guys are going to flame out. But neither one of those is a realistic outlook.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 15, 2013 22:21:04 GMT -5
The "best ever" tag is kind of silly and is something that is thrown around when very little thought is given to a more historic perspective. Again, Boggs and Clemens were two HOFers. This crew has a long way to go before they can begin to think about matching this ceiling. And of course Lynn and Rice were big difference makers in 1975 and then a little more than a decade later solid players in Burks and Greenwell were developed.
There are a wide range of outcomes. So we are reduced to our best guesses. Mine tells me that Bogaerts will be an amazing all-star caliber player and be a fixture in the middle of the order appearing among the league leaders in homers annually. But at what position, I don't know. My gut feeling is that he'll wind up in the corner OF and that Iglesias will hit just well enough to hold the major league SS job until a more advanced bat with merely a good glove takes over his spot.
I think Bradley will be a solid leadoff man who generates some power and a lot of OBP and gold glove defense.
I have a feeling that Garin Cecchini will be at Pawtucket by next year and will find himself up in the majors by August 2014 and will be a high OBP guy in the middle of the order with 20 HR power and he'll probably wind up at 1b. I'm being optimistic that WMB figures out enough to be a .310ish OBP guy with .450 - .500 SA.
I think Brentz will wind up in a corner OF hitting .260 with a low .300ish OBP and a decent slugging average. I think Vazquez will wind up in the majors as either a great backup or a guy who can start regularly but is better as a backup. Hopefully Swihart will progress quicker.
I have hope for Webster, De La Rosa, Barnes, and Owens to pitch well as starters, although I don't know that any of these guys will necessarily be the "ace" that nobody has to wonder/debate that they're truly an ace. (I'm unsure that Ranaudo is anything special and I feel Workman will wind up dealt or in a setup role.)
I'm hopeful with the 7th pick the Sox get an impact bat (even one that can be impact at 1b) or get a potential ace (Kohl Stewart?).
From this I see a nice farm system, one that will contribute one guy with a chance for a HOF career (Bogaerts), and two all-star position players (Bradley and Cecchini), and some good middle of the rotation starters that probably won't wind up with any Cy Young awards.
Hopefully the Sox are able to trade wisely and make smart free agent investments to supplement this farm system that is in my opinion very good, but not historically great.
This farm system is certainly much better than what they've had lately in the past few years and I think this system will provide the core for the next time the Sox will be serious contenders for a Championship. What they have now in Boston can't be classified that way, so this is definitely a step up.
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Post by godot on May 15, 2013 22:32:28 GMT -5
Godot you shouldn't be too pessimistic either. I think there are many teams that would love to have a stable of arms where arguably the 8th best guy throw triple digits. It's the nature of a farm system. Every prospect has a wide range of possible outcomes and if you want to go completely optimistic, you can imagine a completely home-grown lineup of all-stars. The flip side is that if you want to be completely pessimistic, you can find reasons why all these guys are going to flame out. But neither one of those is a realistic outlook. Although that statement has merit, I can't buy into it completely. Many of these kids have upsides, but their talents have to translate into production or at least show improvement trends, and there are performance standards you can quantify and use as gauges, some more pertinent than others. Their attitude, work habits and the like are not at reach to us , other than someone's reports and comments. Of course, there is direct observation, but most of us do not have this opportunity. Thus, you can take a player and look at their record and trends and make a judgement without it being colored by your optimistic or pessimistic bents, as you are pointing to facts and trends that can be shown to be true, false, and/or on target. There are of course some performance data that are better indicators than others. Of course, it never is as easy as this. For example, is Coyle a top flight prospect. Yeah, he has hit some home runs, but it is his second year in the league and he has a very high k rate. His average has never been over .250 and he does not walk much. Is his injury this year stalling his progress? I am holding on to my agnosticism about this system until July. But tell me what prospect can we reasonable expect to help either late this year or next?
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2013 7:13:48 GMT -5
Fenway-At first read your comment does sound as if the actual prodution from a farm system is mostly random. I don't think that's true and I don't think that is what you meant either.
Overall, I would say the Sox are in very good shape prospectwise. Unless they have awful luck, they are going to produce players that can help a competive team win.
There are farm systems that are in better shape and they don't seem to have any potential stars other than Boegarts who is a risky player.
The farm system so far this year has greatly improved due to the emergence of Checchni and Ranaudo.
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Post by hammerhead on May 16, 2013 10:01:20 GMT -5
It's the nature of a farm system. Every prospect has a wide range of possible outcomes and if you want to go completely optimistic, you can imagine a completely home-grown lineup of all-stars. The flip side is that if you want to be completely pessimistic, you can find reasons why all these guys are going to flame out. But neither one of those is a realistic outlook. Although that statement has merit, I can't buy into it completely. Many of these kids have upsides, but their talents have to translate into production or at least show improvement trends, and there are performance standards you can quantify and use as gauges, some more pertinent than others. Their attitude, work habits and the like are not at reach to us , other than someone's reports and comments. Of course, there is direct observation, but most of us do not have this opportunity. Thus, you can take a player and look at their record and trends and make a judgement without it being colored by your optimistic or pessimistic bents, as you are pointing to facts and trends that can be shown to be true, false, and/or on target. There are of course some performance data that are better indicators than others. Of course, it never is as easy as this. For example, is Coyle a top flight prospect. Yeah, he has hit some home runs, but it is his second year in the league and he has a very high k rate. His average has never been over .250 and he does not walk much. Is his injury this year stalling his progress? I am holding on to my agnosticism about this system until July. But tell me what prospect can we reasonable expect to help either late this year or next? I think it's pretty safe to say that both Webster and Rubby will help either late this year or definitely by next season. One bad start for Webster in his second major league start is not an indicator that he can't hack it. JBJ will also probably be ready depending on health. JBJ jumped from AA to the majors and struggled, that doesn't mean he's done being a top flight prospect, he was doing very good until this injury in AAA. Brentz is slowly compiling a nice year and could help anytime if there are injuries. Alex Wilson and Ryan Lavarnway are already up there helping. Xander is the youngest player in his League (Eastern) and is putting up an .800ops at the highest position on the defensive spectrum. Barnes and Ranaudo are right on schedule. Coyle is a top 20 prospect and he's your barometer for the farm system, that's pretty strange. This system is well balanced and looks pretty promising. Who exactly is re-gressing? Iglesisas maybe ... Brian Johnson? I'm not seeing a bunch of players falling down the prospect list. This system will produce 3 or 4 solid major leaguers , enough to help subsidize top free-agents because they will be on the arb clock. No one expects a whole home-grown team that's un-realistic. The call- ups will re-enforce the majors with a fresh core. They won't be the whole team.
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2013 12:20:38 GMT -5
You are right. One bad start is not an indicator that Webster won't be a quality major league player. Though I do think it showed some of his weaknesses. The knock on him had always been that his stuff was far ahead of his command and that showed. What is does show us is that expectations can get a little out of control and sometimes it's appropriate to tap the breaks on those expectations. There are very few pitching prospects that can walk into the major leagues and dominate and we shouldn't expect Webster to. Even Matt Moore struggled at times in his rookie season and he was a better prospect than Webster was. There are also several pitching prospects with Webster's profile that never developed into quality major leaguers.
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Post by jimoh on May 16, 2013 12:44:33 GMT -5
Anyone who is feeling like this is the best farm ever because so many people have high upsides: I challenge you to look at the stats of the 1999 PawSox, and pretend you don't know what happened to these people: www.baseball-reference.com/minors/team.cgi?id=25bc7ee5Izzy Alcantara hit well in AA and AAA (9 hrs in 93 PAs at AAA) CF Michael Coleman at 23 had 30 hr, and 872 OPS 2b Jim Chamblee at 24 had 24 hr, 837 OPS ss Donnie Sadler at 24 had a 362 OBP 3b Cole Liniak at 22 has a 781 OPS (what Middlebrooks had in A and AA) LF Dernell Stenson at 21 had 18 hr and 822 OPS Ji Ho Cho at 22, Tomo Ohka at 23, Juan Pena at 22 and Brian Rose at 23 had WHIPs of 1.167, 1.039, 1.188 and 1.286 Pena pitched twice for Boston, 13 ip, 9h, 1r, 3bb, 15k Rose was BBA's #22 prospect before the start of 1998. John Wasdin even looked good! 25YO, but 29ip, 19h, 28ks Surely all of these players would go on to make glorious contributions in Fenway! Or at least a lot of them? Or some of them? It couldn't be that ALL of them would be busts, could it?
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Post by honkbal on May 16, 2013 13:19:23 GMT -5
Anyone who is feeling like this is the best farm ever because so many people have high upsides: I challenge you to look at the stats of the 1999 PawSox, and pretend you don't know what happened to these people: www.baseball-reference.com/minors/team.cgi?id=25bc7ee5Izzy Alcantara hit well in AA and AAA (9 hrs in 93 PAs at AAA) CF Michael Coleman at 23 had 30 hr, and 872 OPS 2b Jim Chamblee at 24 had 24 hr, 837 OPS ss Donnie Sadler at 24 had a 362 OBP 3b Cole Liniak at 22 has a 781 OPS (what Middlebrooks had in A and AA) LF Dernell Stenson at 21 had 18 hr and 822 OPS Ji Ho Cho at 22, Tomo Ohka at 23, Juan Pena at 22 and Brian Rose at 23 had WHIPs of 1.167, 1.039, 1.188 and 1.286 Pena pitched twice for Boston, 13 ip, 9h, 1r, 3bb, 15k Rose was BBA's #22 prospect before the start of 1998. John Wasdin even looked good! 25YO, but 29ip, 19h, 28ks Surely all of these players would go on to make glorious contributions in Fenway! Or at least a lot of them? Or some of them? It couldn't be that ALL of them would be busts, could it? Except only one of those players was a top 100 prospect at that point. And he was shot and killed a few years later/ So. I'm not really sure what this is supposed to prove about high-upside prospects?
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Post by widewordofsport on May 16, 2013 13:35:03 GMT -5
I think it's insane to project Owens/Ranaudo/Barnes/Webster all as top 3 starters. Those guys have a top 3 ceiling, and it's crazy to think all four could get there.
I assume that Shaw/Lavarnway (both below-average MLBers, can't see either hitting long-term at that level, esp at those positions) have been covered, and as much as I like Vazquez line this year, I'm not sure I pencil him in as a starting catcher because he got 6 extra walks in April-May.
Farm system is in good shape, and has a lot of intriguing guys. But there's a reason why someone like me saw Workman's college stats, and underrated him, then his lower minor league stats and overrated him, and that in the end he'll end up as a 7-8th inning guy for the Red Sox. 'Stuff' just doesn't translate linearly.
As for Coyle, I haven't changed my view on him since the talk about Coyle vs. Cecchini a month ago. I haven't seen anything to make me think he'll hit enough to show that power. He'll have to learn to make (softer) contact more consistently just to make the majors.
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Post by widewordofsport on May 16, 2013 13:38:16 GMT -5
"Surely all of these players would go on to make glorious contributions in Fenway!"
IIRC, Brian Rose's best contribution to the Red Sox is that Montreal got to choose Tony Armas JrCarl Pavano or him, and took Pavano, in the Pedro deal.
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Post by johnsilver52 on May 16, 2013 13:57:00 GMT -5
My answer to the original question is no. Without knowing how far this current group will go there is little chance of them matching the early 80's or 70's group. Us old guys all knew about Lynn and Evans ,and Rice before they got to Boston and we didn't have the internet or great sites like this to follow them. The Rocket was ready to pitch out of college and Boggs was held back . We only have one guy that could be close to them now. It's still a good group , but not close to the best. "We didn't have the internet" being key and why now the hype is everywhere on everyone. Used to be one could talk to managers of MiLB teams and get straight answers on players, see the ones had been friends with for years during ST and get regular updates on progress of players as they advanced, but with the internet age? That has passed. Joe Morgan was a great one for updates and would talk forever it seemed on how players were doing after they had left W/H, both good or bad.
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2013 16:13:04 GMT -5
The lineup I said before, I agree, is unlikely. Some prospects don't reach their potential and it would be unrealistic to think that the entire lineup would be homegrown. There will be trades and FA signings.
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