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6/11-6/13 Red Sox vs. Phillies Series Thread
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jun 12, 2024 5:14:38 GMT -5
Last baserunner was in the 4th inning from a walk. I see Fatse writing a lot of stuff on a tablet...what..How to strike out with a flair? Fatse must be adding up all of his paychecks on that tablet True. But look at what the Sox have trotted out for a lineup all year, one of these issues where its not entirely on the coaching. The personnel on this team is pretty subpar. Although I have been really pleasantly surprised by Wong.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 12, 2024 8:25:17 GMT -5
Struggling to hit Zack Wheeler shows the incompetence of the hitting coach.
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Post by seamus on Jun 12, 2024 8:49:38 GMT -5
Last night my 8-year-old was playing "right field" and fielded a ground ball in essentially the spot where Valdez was. First baseman caught the ball and the team recorded what I believe was the only "normal" out of the game. It was my son's highlight of the evening, so I'm definitely only praising him, not ragging on Dom Smith by saying I have definitive proof that a second grader makes that play.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 12, 2024 9:30:31 GMT -5
The sub-replacement level guys are at it again. After briefly recovering to -3.2 they've quickly plummeted to -3.8. Jamie Westbrook has joined their ranks. Rafaela got up to 0 WAR (fractionally negative) but he's been slumping, hitting .200/.222/.200 in June with a 39% K rate. And by the eyeball test it's not just a bad luck run; his PAs have looked about as bad as ever. He's back down to -0.3.
Valdez fell by a tick since his 2 HR game but in his case I think it is bad luck; the PAs still look good to me, and the K rate and BABIP have both been minuscule. The book is closed on Garrett Cooper at least (-1.4 WAR from Short, Cooper, and Reyes are locked in).
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Post by greenmonster on Jun 12, 2024 10:18:54 GMT -5
Struggling to hit Zack Wheeler shows the incompetence of the hitting coach. lol...yes, plenty of hitters struggle against Zack Wheeler. I can't speak for anyone but myself, but my disappointed with Fatse is more overall based on the past several season and not a single game.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 12, 2024 10:28:33 GMT -5
The sub-replacement level guys are at it again. After briefly recovering to -3.2 they've quickly plummeted to -3.8. Jamie Westbrook has joined their ranks. Rafaela got up to 0 WAR (fractionally negative) but he's been slumping, hitting .200/.222/.200 in June with a 39% K rate. And by the eyeball test it's not just a bad luck run; his PAs have looked about as bad as ever. He's back down to -0.3. Valdez fell by a tick since his 2 HR game but in his case I think it is bad luck; the PAs still look good to me, and the K rate and BABIP have both been minuscule. The book is closed on Garrett Cooper at least (-1.4 WAR from Short, Cooper, and Reyes are locked in).
I mentioned this once before, I guess the question is how forseeable those below replacement level guys would be a) getting playing time, and b) below replacement level. The infield injuries forced Valdez into more playing time than they anticipated. Westbrook was like the sixth choice for a backup infielder. It's tough when your replacement-level replacements get hurt (Romy Gonzalez) and you have to go deeper into the depth. By the same token, Garrett Cooper had been a decent player in the past. He obviously played quite poorly. Pablo Reyes looked like a reasonable backup in 2023, and then he just wasn't this year. The two guys who seemed like "ehhh, they ought to be able to find a better option than this", to me, were Dalbec and Smith... and Smith has actually been fine. The WAR is still negative, but it's actually moved in the right direction over the past month. The frustrating thing with Rafaela is that he's had those three games where he looks like the best player on the planet, totally taking over the game. In those three games, he's 10-14 with 16 RBI. Obviously, most players do their best production in their best games, but Rafaela's outstanding games have been so huge that it's really inflating his baseline production. He's hitless in 28 of the 63 games in which he's gotten at least 3 PA. 25.6% of his total bases, 43.2% of his RBI, and 33.3% of his runs scored have been in those three games. For comparison's sake, the highest % of a qualified player's total bases coming in three games I could find was Eugenio Suarez, at 20.5%. Also, two of those three games were blowouts, which has left his baseline production in those other (winnable) games really low - his bWAR is an acceptable 0.6, but his WPA is -1.7, fifth worst in all of baseball. His last 10 games have been an even starker microcosm - 9-39 with 2 HR, 1 walk and 15 K. Obviously bad K/BB numbers, but overall the production is there. But he went 6 for 10 (with both of those homers) in two of those games, leaving him 3-29 with no EBH, no RBI, 1 BB, and 14 Ks (and a pretty devastating -.541 WPA) in the other eight. Instead of developing more consistency as the season has progressed, he's increasingly become all-or-nothing.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 12, 2024 12:30:57 GMT -5
This just gave me JBJ vibes in regards to Rafaela. Obviously way too soon. Just gave me a flashback.
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Post by chaimtime on Jun 12, 2024 12:47:51 GMT -5
Not really sure where to post this, but Fangraphs had a really good article about how swing speed, exit velo, launch angle, pull percentage, and whatever other metrics are en vogue interact. It’s worth checking out for anyone interested in this stuff: blogs.fangraphs.com/maybe-the-launch-angle-revolution-wasnt-really-about-launch-angleOne interesting implication that didn’t get discussed is how this explains why shortstop defense is so important, and difficult, in the major leagues. The bat is moving fastest, and therefore the ball is hit hardest, in the portion of the swing that would send a baseball toward the shortstop for a righty. That means they’re not only covering the biggest area and making the hardest throws, they’re also getting the hardest hit, most difficult to field balls out of anyone in the infield. I don’t think that’s really breaking any new ground, but my initial read is that it suggests the most important trait for shortstop defense is a quick first step. I don’t think statcast tracks that for infielders the way it does for outfielders, but I’m curious if teams have that data and if the public will start getting it eventually. I’m also curious about the implications for handedness—do righties have an advantage here because their hardest hit balls will require a longer throw, or do lefties have the advantage because their hardest-hit ground balls are generally going to an inferior defender? Also worth noting for comparing bat speed across multiple seasons, once we have multiple seasons of data—because of how Statcast measures bat speed, it will be important to determine if changes in bat speed year over year are due to genuine changes in a player’s physical ability or a change in approach that leads to more/fewer balls hit the other way.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jun 12, 2024 12:48:42 GMT -5
This just gave me JBJ vibes in regards to Rafaela. Obviously way too soon. Just gave me a flashback. Good news is that means he will get better.
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nomar
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Posts: 11,501
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Post by nomar on Jun 12, 2024 14:51:46 GMT -5
Ok I must be having a slow day because I can’t find where splits or the game logs are in the new fangraphs player pages (on mobile)
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 12, 2024 15:19:16 GMT -5
I'm still upset that apparently Refsnyder was so bad at first base that they have to play Dalbec instead of Yoshida today.
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Post by patford on Jun 12, 2024 15:25:14 GMT -5
I'm still upset that apparently Refsnyder was so bad at first base that they have to play Dalbec instead of Yoshida today. Dalbec has been very good defensively this year.
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shagworthy
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My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,845
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Post by shagworthy on Jun 12, 2024 15:28:37 GMT -5
Changing my mind about Dom. Wish got that. Wow. Edit. To be fair Schwarber won that game with 2 HR. And Valdez did make a poor throw. Still wish Dom caught it but he didn’t really cost this game. That came from just 4 hits, one run and some bizarre calls. It was the Phils that was supposed to be jet lagged. I mean it's a play he should have made. It wasn't like that throw was 5 feet off the bag, he just heard the guy running and took his eye off the ball. The game will humble you real quick for any mental lapse. We're just all keyed up because we keep seeing these mental lapses day in and day out. It's a feature, not a bug of today's game. Remember when everyone lost their shit on Knoblach when he just stood there as the ball rolled away with his hands on his hips? Those kind of mental shenanigans now happen daily across the league, more athletic sure, but the foundations aren't there for the modern player.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 12, 2024 15:30:30 GMT -5
I'm still upset that apparently Refsnyder was so bad at first base that they have to play Dalbec instead of Yoshida today. Dalbec has been very good defensively this year. he also has a wRC+ of 26
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Post by chaimtime on Jun 12, 2024 15:37:26 GMT -5
Ok I must be having a slow day because I can’t find where splits or the game logs are in the new fangraphs player pages (on mobile) Theres a “menu” button in the bottom right corner that, so far in my experience, is usually covered up by an ad. Had the same issue on the train this morning.
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shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,845
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Post by shagworthy on Jun 12, 2024 15:42:14 GMT -5
Dalbec has been very good defensively this year. he also has a wRC+ of 26 Two things... although I agree with you re: Dalbec and his production, there aren't a plethora of better options. Kavadas would get eaten alive in the majors, and I think not playing Ref @1b is less out of him not being capable, but acknowledging he is still playing injured and when the Sox have put players in unfamiliar positions it has usually cost them significantly, A couple years ago they put Arroyo, who was offensively performing at 1B, and in the first game he did a split, lost a testicle, and immediately went to the IL never to perform well again. Considering our production gap, losing Ref for any extended period is probably not in our best interest, so I will take the one game, where he could potentially PH, versus an impromptu extended DL stink.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 12, 2024 15:48:18 GMT -5
Two things... although I agree with you re: Dalbec and his production, there aren't a plethora of better options. Kavadas would get eaten alive in the majors, and I think not playing Ref @1b is less out of him not being capable, but acknowledging he is still playing injured and when the Sox have put players in unfamiliar positions it has usually cost them significantly, A couple years ago they put Arroyo, who was offensively performing at 1B, and in the first game he did a split, lost a testicle, and immediately went to the IL never to perform well again. Considering our production gap, losing Ref for any extended period is probably not in our best interest, so I will take the one game, where he could potentially PH, versus an impromptu extended DL stink. The better option would have been Refsnyder being able to play there, this was my original complaint. I'm not saying playing Dalbec today is the wrong choice. I don't know why they don't think he can, but they tried it out and decided not to play Refsnyder at first and that is a very disappointing outcome when it means that on days like today we go from Yoshida's bat to Dalbec's bat in the lineup.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jun 12, 2024 16:14:15 GMT -5
Struggling to hit Zack Wheeler shows the incompetence of the hitting coach. Right. And didn't someone just post in the last day or so how the Sox rank slightly above league average overall in offense despite losing almost all of their good players to injury, and for extended periods of time? Must be the crappy coach's fault, caller.
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shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,845
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Post by shagworthy on Jun 12, 2024 16:19:23 GMT -5
Two things... although I agree with you re: Dalbec and his production, there aren't a plethora of better options. Kavadas would get eaten alive in the majors, and I think not playing Ref @1b is less out of him not being capable, but acknowledging he is still playing injured and when the Sox have put players in unfamiliar positions it has usually cost them significantly, A couple years ago they put Arroyo, who was offensively performing at 1B, and in the first game he did a split, lost a testicle, and immediately went to the IL never to perform well again. Considering our production gap, losing Ref for any extended period is probably not in our best interest, so I will take the one game, where he could potentially PH, versus an impromptu extended DL stink. The better option would have been Refsnyder being able to play there, this was my original complaint. I'm not saying playing Dalbec today is the wrong choice. I don't know why they don't think he can, but they tried it out and decided not to play Refsnyder at first and that is a very disappointing outcome when it means that on days like today we go from Yoshida's bat to Dalbec's bat in the lineup. I will reiterate my point. The benefit of Ref, and or Yoshida's bat versus the real risk that Ref gets injured playing a position that he may be serviceable in, but not entirely comfortable in is what is at play here. The Sox have tried to shoehorn guys into positions because of their potential offensive utility the last several years, and for the most part it has backfired. Swihart, Hanley, Arroyo, Kiké, Marwin, etc are all cautionary tales. If Ref was 20 years old, sure... f'it. Like they did with Rafeala @ SS. But he's 33, and his offense and leadership has been too valuable to this young club who realistically aren't going to suddenly become deep playoff contenders. If I am the Sox I am doing everything I can to protect him and make him comfortable. If this year isn't a banner year, there is still so much to be gained by his presence for the other players who will carry that torch.
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shagworthy
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My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,845
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Post by shagworthy on Jun 12, 2024 16:28:46 GMT -5
Also..just want to throw this out here, being an older fan. I've heard Yaz thrown out as comparisons as to why Ref should be able to handle 1B and it makes me want to scream because Yaz was one of the BEST players ever. No disrespect to Ref, but Yaz smoked 3 packs a day, probably drank enough vodka to kill a horse, and would still go 3/5 in a game. Ref is by all accounts a good player and more importantly a good dude, but Yaz was YAZ. Think about having to carve out your niche in the shadows of Ted Williams? The pressure on him was more intense than anyone ever really gives credit to.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 12, 2024 16:43:40 GMT -5
The better option would have been Refsnyder being able to play there, this was my original complaint. I'm not saying playing Dalbec today is the wrong choice. I don't know why they don't think he can, but they tried it out and decided not to play Refsnyder at first and that is a very disappointing outcome when it means that on days like today we go from Yoshida's bat to Dalbec's bat in the lineup. I will reiterate my point. The benefit of Ref, and or Yoshida's bat versus the real risk that Ref gets injured playing a position that he may be serviceable in, but not entirely comfortable in is what is at play here. The Sox have tried to shoehorn guys into positions because of their potential offensive utility the last several years, and for the most part it has backfired. Swihart, Hanley, Arroyo, Kiké, Marwin, etc are all cautionary tales. If Ref was 20 years old, sure... f'it. Like they did with Rafeala @ SS. But he's 33, and his offense and leadership has been too valuable to this young club who realistically aren't going to suddenly become deep playoff contenders. If I am the Sox I am doing everything I can to protect him and make him comfortable. If this year isn't a banner year, there is still so much to be gained by his presence for the other players who will carry that torch. Okay, but originally they didn't think injury risk was a big concern because they were playing him there in rehab. Cora was talking about him playing there in games as the plan. Then something changed. Whether he didn't feel comfortable or the team didn't think he looked good or thought he was playing it in some kind of risky way I don't know. My point is this was the plan at some point and then it changed and now because it changed we have one of the worst hitters in the league in the starting lineup. I'll drop it here though because I'm not sure exactly what we disagree on.
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Post by cba82 on Jun 12, 2024 17:58:05 GMT -5
Rewatching the Valdez/Smith play for the umpteenth time, Smith had the wrong foot on the bag — he should have had his right foot on the base, which would have improved his angle to the ball.
It was a bad throw, but the ball should have been caught.
Also disappointed in Smith’s comments (“It was not a routine play”); own it.
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Post by LoneStarSox on Jun 12, 2024 18:12:48 GMT -5
Set the tone Nicky!
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jun 12, 2024 18:17:48 GMT -5
Gotta have that catch, Bobby.
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Post by kevfc89 on Jun 12, 2024 18:18:20 GMT -5
Dom Smith disease affecting Bobby
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