6/17 Gameday Thread: The Devil Wears Prado

Looks like the FCL game was changed to a 6pm start.

Pretty standard DSL material here, but Abis Prado didn't allow a single hit or earned run in his three innings of work today while picking up 2 Ks along the way. He did however walk 3 and give up 3 unearned runs, which believe it or not, none of which came from his walks.

Anyways, he's up to 8.1 IP of ball on the year without giving up an ER and is one of the more interesting pitchers this year from our DSL squads statistically speaking.

Justin Gonzalez is off to a good start in the DSL. 5 XBHs through his first nine games. 5:3 BB:K rate and even a couple stolen bases thrown in. $250,000 bonus and won’t turn 18 until December.

I was listening to the Rates and Barrels podcast on the draft with Darren Van Riper and Keith Law and they both went on for some length on how horrible the competition in the minors is compared to 8-10 years ago, and especially in AAA, and why this might be contributing to the steep on ramp for many rookies. Law attributed it to MLB eliminating short season ball, forcing a lot of recent draftees immediately into A ball and causing a domino effect moving some guys up a level too fast, which in turn led to the dominoes hitting MILB free agents at AAA the hardest, reducing roster opportunities. They both theorized that top prospects in the near future may jump from AA to MLB or only spend a couple or three weeks in AAA before moving up because AAA is so watered down and the bulk of AA pitching is more challenging.

Also said sending guys like Holiday, Kelenic and Torkelson down to AAA does nothing these days because that level is so diluted they just rake and learn nothing.

Anyone else seeing the diluted play and concur with these theories? I used to go to several minor league games a year but since the pandemic it’s been very few.

They've been saying AA is better than AAA since long before the purge. As a whole, it's not true.  The top talent in AA is probably better, elite prospects don't spend much time in AAA.  I'm not really sure how you improve the quality of AAA players either. I guess you could pay them more and keep them from foreign or independent leagues?  

 This is the last 10 years of AL average hitters OPS vs MLB rookie hitters OPS, for DH purposes. The purge happened at the beginning of the 2021 season.  I think it's fair to say it had an impact.  
2014 .706, .724
2015 .730, .731
2016 .744, .722
2017 .753, .745
2018 .734, .725
2019 .762, .738
2020 .733, .689
2021 .731, .699
2022 .701, .699
2023 .729, .709
2024 .701, .636

This is a great little table, and certainly more valuable than the time I spent unsuccessfully looking for minor league stuff + type numbers going back in time but I don't think it's fair to say that it shows conclusive evidence of a difference post-2020. First, I personally don't know when to expect the change to start - it's possible that a change to the lowest levels would take a while to have effects that percolate throughout the system. For instance, a grand total of 0 members of the Red Sox 2021 draft class have debuted for the parent club so far. Would we expect this change only to show for players who didn't debut with short season ball, because if so any effects from the change might not even be showing yet? Or is the effect still delayed but much quicker - as would have to be the case if we'd expect it to be relevant for Jarred Kelenic. 

Then, it's also only been partway through the 2024 season. Ignoring that, some of the largest differences take place pre-2021, like in 2019 and 2020. 

I will say, just judging from the Red Sox system, this is about the time the 2021 draftees are now heavily represented in the upper minors. 

I completely dismissed 2020.  But if you include it, one could say AAA has been getting worse since 2019. 2022 sticks out, though.  It's also true that a lot of these numbers won't be impacted by the purge. It mostly impacted 18 year old kids in 2021 who were no where close to sniffing the Majors. It might have some impact on the 2024 numbers but it won't really be felt until 25-27, really.  At least at the MLB level. 

FTFY

only rain can stop him

This kid is massive. Baseball America has him listed at 6’5 225 pounds in an article from May 30. He’ll probably be 1B only long term so hopefully he keeps hitting.

Well, if you guys said it, then it’s true.