asm18
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Posts: 2,543
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Post by asm18 on Jun 17, 2024 20:54:41 GMT -5
Feels unnecessary but can’t blame Cora with all the Ort/Brasier PTSD Yeah I get not sticking with one of your mop up guys to face the top of their order after he walks Kevin Kiermaier hitting .195 with a 4 run lead. Don’t get cute there just get the win
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Post by ephus on Jun 17, 2024 20:56:49 GMT -5
Bridge year or stairway to heaven? You decide.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 17, 2024 21:01:11 GMT -5
By x-W/L the Red Sox would be 3 games ahead of Minnesota for the 3rd wild card. They'd also be 8.5 games ahead of the Blue Jays and 11.5 games ahead of the Rays.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jun 17, 2024 21:04:54 GMT -5
This is getting real exciting.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jun 17, 2024 21:20:33 GMT -5
Suppose we don't think about Rafaela getting better. Suppose we think about him being what he has been so far -- .240 hitter, 15-20 HR, 80 RBI.
With what he gives on defense, is there any way he gets pushed out of the lineup even if what we see to now is what we get? I think everybody before the season probably would have taken Rafaela's projected numbers with his defense and been ecstatic.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,543
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Post by asm18 on Jun 17, 2024 21:22:55 GMT -5
After tonight’s games the only American League team currently within 5 games of a playoff spot (Wild Card or Division) who do not currently have a playoff spot is the Red Sox. (Blue Jays are 5 back of Wild Card, Tigers 6 back etc. Rangers 8.5 back of Seattle in the West). Sox are 2.5 back of Twins and 3 back of Royals.
Contrast to the NL where literally EVERYONE (except Miami and the Rockies) are within 2 games of the Wild Card.
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Post by rhswanzey on Jun 17, 2024 21:28:44 GMT -5
What is the most games over 500 this team has been this season? Anybody remember? (I had to look it up) they were 18-13 after beating the Giants on May 1. They were 17-13 the night before that, and way back on April 5th, they improved to 6-2 after taking the opener in Los Angeles - the night Trevor Story got hurt.
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Post by geostorm on Jun 18, 2024 6:08:25 GMT -5
Bridge year or stairway to heaven? You decide. Saw this and, to stay consistent on your music/song reference, this immediately popped into my head -
(Bridge year)"highway to hell" or "stairway to heaven"? You decide.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 18, 2024 8:48:21 GMT -5
Rafaela would be on pace for about a 2.5 WAR season if he only played CF Yep, this looks to be what Rafaela is as of now as a starting centerfielder. A couple comparisons:
Harrison Bader 2019: 82 wRC+, +12 OAA, 406 PAs, 1.5 WAR Harrison Bader 2022: 85 wRC+, +7 OAA, 313 PAs, 1.5 WAR Kevin Kiermaier 2018: 79 wRC+, +8 OAA, 367 PAs, 1.6 WAR
Kevin Kiermaier 2019: 79 wRC+, +18 OAA, 480 PAs, 2.5 WAR
Rafaela has an 81 wRC+ and +4 OAA in 361 innings in CF (basically 40 games).
If he can get up to a 100 wRC+ he's probably a 4-5 WAR player.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 18, 2024 10:13:01 GMT -5
After tonight’s games the only American League team currently within 5 games of a playoff spot (Wild Card or Division) who do not currently have a playoff spot is the Red Sox. (Blue Jays are 5 back of Wild Card, Tigers 6 back etc. Rangers 8.5 back of Seattle in the West). Sox are 2.5 back of Twins and 3 back of Royals. Contrast to the NL where literally EVERYONE (except Miami and the Rockies) are within 2 games of the Wild Card. Good info and all the more reason to be buyers this trade deadline. They are in the dreaded 25-30% playoffs odds range on fangraphs.
By the season-to-date calculation, they are smack dab at 50%.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,543
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Post by asm18 on Jun 18, 2024 10:34:39 GMT -5
Fangraphs wins projections and playoff odds as of now: Twins: 87.7 wins (WC2) - 74% Royals: 84.5 wins (WC3) - 48% Astros: 82.4 wins - 33% Red Sox: 82 wins - 27% The Astros are the big X-factor in all this, because the odds systems aren’t counting them out (which I certainly can’t blame them for given Houston’s talent and pedigree.) Right now they’re 6 games under .500 (although about to play the White Sox.) I wonder what the Sox odds would look like if Houston were to stay mired in the mud this time next month. www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/lg
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Post by seamus on Jun 18, 2024 10:46:38 GMT -5
I have no idea what to make of the Royals, who are essentially just good starting pitching plus Salvy and Witt. I think the Red Sox may be a better team if Casas can fix the black hole on the right-side of the infield - a lot just depends on which rotation one believes can sustain the high level of performance.
I feel reasonably confident that the Red Sox are better than the Twins. Minnesota's record is propped up a lot by going a ridiculous 14-0 against the White Sox, A's, and Angels and 13-5 in one-run games. They get credit for taking care of business, but it doesn't take too much regression to the mean to put the Sox in front.
I like their chances of beating out at least one of them, even if the FG and B-R projections aren't nearly as rosey.
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Post by itinerantherb on Jun 18, 2024 11:01:01 GMT -5
I have no idea what to make of the Royals, who are essentially just good starting pitching plus Salvy and Witt. I think the Red Sox may be a better team if Casas can fix the black hole on the right-side of the infield - a lot just depends on which rotation one believes can sustain the high level of performance. I feel reasonably confident that the Red Sox are better than the Twins. Minnesota's record is propped up a lot by going a ridiculous 14-0 against the White Sox, A's, and Angels and 13-5 in one-run games. They get credit for taking care of business, but it doesn't take too much regression to the mean to put the Sox in front. I like their chances of beating out at least one of them, even if the FG and B-R projections aren't nearly as rosey. I agree that the Twins are the most suspect, which is why I've been checking their box scores daily. Unfortunately, they've been on a nice little run.
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Post by chaimtime on Jun 18, 2024 13:10:19 GMT -5
World Series odds above 1% on Fangraphs for, I believe, the first time this season. Can this team prove John Henry right for believing in them, and get those odds up to 5%??
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Post by patford on Jun 18, 2024 13:29:03 GMT -5
After tonight’s games the only American League team currently within 5 games of a playoff spot (Wild Card or Division) who do not currently have a playoff spot is the Red Sox. (Blue Jays are 5 back of Wild Card, Tigers 6 back etc. Rangers 8.5 back of Seattle in the West). Sox are 2.5 back of Twins and 3 back of Royals. Contrast to the NL where literally EVERYONE (except Miami and the Rockies) are within 2 games of the Wild Card. Good info and all the more reason to be buyers this trade deadline. Even if the Sox are in a strong position at the deadline the idea of buying doesn't appeal to me except for moves around the margins. The current team has areas of need but there are high ceiling prospects stacked up in the minors waiting to fill those areas. I'd hate to see those exciting prospects traded away on a short term gamble with long odds at winning the World Series.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jun 18, 2024 13:40:18 GMT -5
Good info and all the more reason to be buyers this trade deadline. Even if the Sox are in a strong position at the deadline the idea of buying doesn't appeal to me except for moves around the margins. The current team has areas of need but there are high ceiling prospects stacked up in the minors waiting to fill those areas. I'd hate to see those exciting prospects traded away on a short term gamble with long odds at winning the World Series. I truly don’t think any big trade will happen unless whoever coming to the Sox has 3+ years of control. EDIT: with Perales going down with TJ, I honestly think Craig *has* to trade for a controllable frontline starter at the deadline or this offseason, as there’s nobody even close to the big league roster SP wise in the minors.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 18, 2024 13:50:52 GMT -5
Even if the Sox are in a strong position at the deadline the idea of buying doesn't appeal to me except for moves around the margins. The current team has areas of need but there are high ceiling prospects stacked up in the minors waiting to fill those areas. I'd hate to see those exciting prospects traded away on a short term gamble with long odds at winning the World Series. I truly don’t think any big trade will happen unless whoever coming to the Sox has 3+ years of control. EDIT: with Perales going down with TJ, I honestly think Craig *has* to trade for a controllable frontline starter at the deadline or this offseason, as there’s nobody even close to the big league roster SP wise in the minors. I'm not following why a setback for a AA prospect with a mid-2026 ETA means that the team suddenly "has" to trade for a starter in 2024. They already have 4 controllable starters, not counting Criswell, Fitts, etc.; they can easily fill out the rotation through free agency.
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Post by patford on Jun 18, 2024 13:57:39 GMT -5
Even if the Sox are in a strong position at the deadline the idea of buying doesn't appeal to me except for moves around the margins. The current team has areas of need but there are high ceiling prospects stacked up in the minors waiting to fill those areas. I'd hate to see those exciting prospects traded away on a short term gamble with long odds at winning the World Series. I truly don’t think any big trade will happen unless whoever coming to the Sox has 3+ years of control. EDIT: with Perales going down with TJ, I honestly think Craig *has* to trade for a controllable frontline starter at the deadline or this offseason, as there’s nobody even close to the big league roster SP wise in the minors. Perales was projected as being up in mid-2026. They have Giolito coming back and Whitlock. I'd much rather they look to sign a free agent than give up a haul for a pitcher who might well get hurt anyhow. Just in a general sense it seems like pitching has become impossible to predict. Not only continuous serious injuries but someone like Imanaga throwing a 90 mph fastball and dominating.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Jun 18, 2024 13:58:21 GMT -5
Good info and all the more reason to be buyers this trade deadline. Even if the Sox are in a strong position at the deadline the idea of buying doesn't appeal to me except for moves around the margins. The current team has areas of need but there are high ceiling prospects stacked up in the minors waiting to fill those areas. I'd hate to see those exciting prospects traded away on a short term gamble with long odds at winning the World Series. I don't understand the intense desire to trade for a controllable frontline starter when the Red Sox already have the most frontline pitcher in baseball this year locked up until he's 32. I'd much rather try to add a Jack Flaherty, Eric Fedde type who will not require a kings ransom but can still give the team good innings for the next handful of months.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 18, 2024 14:06:58 GMT -5
Yeah my favorite trade candidates are the Fedde/Quantrills with 1.5 years of control who are good but not so good that we'll have to give up something great.
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Post by itinerantherb on Jun 18, 2024 14:20:56 GMT -5
Yeah, if they're buyers at the deadline, it'll be because Houck has continued his dominance and at least two of Bello, Pivetta, and Crawford have been pitching well. They'll need depth more than a "frontline" starter. That's said, if the White Sox want to take Yorke and Zanatello for Crochet, I wouldn't argue.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 18, 2024 14:28:49 GMT -5
Perales was gonna be up next year unless he got hurt or his stuff deteriorated
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,543
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Post by asm18 on Jun 18, 2024 14:34:13 GMT -5
No lineup yet - Cora was saying he’s hoping to avoid an IL stint with Hamilton but Westbrook is around just in case, and Martin is supposedly going to be activated today. So there is likely a move coming
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Post by seamus on Jun 18, 2024 15:18:58 GMT -5
Perales was gonna be up next year unless he got hurt or his stuff deteriorated Yeah, it would have been hard to imagine him staying in the minors all season unless he pulled a Drohan upon reaching AAA. But that doesn't change the fact that the Red Sox have actually had really good starting pitching this year, including a Cy Young-caliber performance, so any trade for pitching only needs to be of the "Can't have enough solid starting pitching depth" or "The other team has lost their damn mind and is selling everything" variety.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 18, 2024 15:20:31 GMT -5
Cooper Criswell optioned
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