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nomar
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Posts: 11,505
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Post by nomar on Jun 15, 2024 8:46:52 GMT -5
Coffey’s hot streak feels pretty significant. You can’t really luck into 6 HRs in 5 games. All of the sudden he’s on a 48 HR pace and has a 123 wRC+ despite a .242 BABIP.
I know he doesn’t have the raw power to support a 30% HR/FB, but he’s been known to have above average raw since he was drafted (at least on this site). I’m not going to hold his middling numbers in Salem against him last year, especially after what we saw from Roman Anthony.
I haven’t watched him closely enough to notice a huge change in his swing year over year, but last year he seemed to have a pretty flat bath path and his GB% is still on the high side. I wonder if he’s trying to remedy that a bit. People have noted that his leg kick is less pronounced now, and maybe that has aided his timing. I think how much usable power he has will be the key to his offensive future as he projects to be around average in terms of K/BB.
With a good arm and the ability to play some SS I’d think he can become a really solid defender at 3B. The farm doesn’t have much going on at that position, so it’s nice to see Coffey flirting with a breakout.
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Post by jbuttah on Jun 15, 2024 8:57:07 GMT -5
Just saw video of Coffey hitting a HR last July. Two things are immediately noticeable. He's closed up his stance this year and has less hand movement pre-swing. The leg kick does seem a little bit less pronounced as well.
What a boon for the system if Coffey could join the Big 3, a resurgent Yorke, fellow surprises Campbell/Zanatello and the next great thing Bleis on the prospect radar.
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Post by rickasadoorian on Jun 15, 2024 11:13:00 GMT -5
Coffey’s hot streak feels pretty significant. You can’t really luck into 6 HRs in 5 games. All of the sudden he’s on a 48 HR pace and has a 123 wRC+ despite a .242 BABIP. I know he doesn’t have the raw power to support a 30% HR/FB, but he’s been known to have above average raw since he was drafted (at least on this site). I’m not going to hold his middling numbers in Salem against him last year, especially after what we saw from Roman Anthony. I haven’t watched him closely enough to notice a huge change in his swing year over year, but last year he seemed to have a pretty flat bath path and his GB% is still on the high side. I wonder if he’s trying to remedy that a bit. People have noted that his leg kick is less pronounced now, and maybe that has aided his timing. I think how much usable power he has will be the key to his offensive future as he projects to be around average in terms of K/BB. With a good arm and the ability to play some SS I’d think he can become a really solid defender at 3B. The farm doesn’t have much going on at that position, so it’s nice to see Coffey flirting with a breakout. Why cant you luck into 6 HRs in 5 games? He just turned 20 in May so it's possible he figured something out but I wouldn't rule out dumb luck just yet. Hitting a HR in 5 straight games involves a megaton of luck. He has been pretty dreadful his entire pro career prior to the last 5 games, though he's also had terrible BAbip luck. 2022: .208 2023: .262 2024: .242 (.225 5 games ago, he's 4/11 with balls in play the last 5) He has been long over due for some good fortunate. Hopefully it's something real but for now I'm leaning on it being "luck." I don't know if you can just dismiss his numbers at Salem because of Roman Anthony. The Red Sox promoted Anthony despite his struggles after 42 games and then he excelled the rest of the year, even earning another promotion to Portland. Coffey spend twice as long in Salem and then proceeded to struggle mightily when he was called up to Greenville. He continued to struggle in Greenville mightily up until the last 5 games. It just seems lazy to dismiss someone's Salem numbers because of an anomaly. This is especially true when his numbers this year were even worse 5 games ago (.186/.260/.331 in 131 PA). His career numbers 5 games ago in 599 PA, .199/.309/.309. I'm not trying to be negative and am rooting for Coffey to succeed but let's not ignore 599 PA of data for 24. Maybe he has figured out, but a 5 game 24 PA sample isn't a sample. |
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jun 15, 2024 11:59:42 GMT -5
Coffey’s hot streak feels pretty significant. You can’t really luck into 6 HRs in 5 games. All of the sudden he’s on a 48 HR pace and has a 123 wRC+ despite a .242 BABIP. I know he doesn’t have the raw power to support a 30% HR/FB, but he’s been known to have above average raw since he was drafted (at least on this site). I’m not going to hold his middling numbers in Salem against him last year, especially after what we saw from Roman Anthony. I haven’t watched him closely enough to notice a huge change in his swing year over year, but last year he seemed to have a pretty flat bath path and his GB% is still on the high side. I wonder if he’s trying to remedy that a bit. People have noted that his leg kick is less pronounced now, and maybe that has aided his timing. I think how much usable power he has will be the key to his offensive future as he projects to be around average in terms of K/BB. With a good arm and the ability to play some SS I’d think he can become a really solid defender at 3B. The farm doesn’t have much going on at that position, so it’s nice to see Coffey flirting with a breakout. Why cant you luck into 6 HRs in 5 games? He just turned 20 in May so it's possible he figured something out but I wouldn't rule out dumb luck just yet. Hitting a HR in 5 straight games involves a megaton of luck. He has been pretty dreadful his entire pro career prior to the last 5 games, though he's also had terrible BAbip luck. 2022: .208 2023: .262 2024: .242 (.225 5 games ago, he's 4/11 with balls in play the last 5) He has been long over due for some good fortunate. Hopefully it's something real but for now I'm leaning on it being "luck." I don't know if you can just dismiss his numbers at Salem because of Roman Anthony. The Red Sox promoted Anthony despite his struggles after 42 games and then he excelled the rest of the year, even earning another promotion to Portland. Coffey spend twice as long in Salem and then proceeded to struggle mightily when he was called up to Greenville. He continued to struggle in Greenville mightily up until the last 5 games. It just seems lazy to dismiss someone's Salem numbers because of an anomaly. This is especially true when his numbers this year were even worse 5 games ago (.186/.260/.331 in 131 PA). His career numbers 5 games ago in 599 PA, .199/.309/.309. I'm not trying to be negative and am rooting for Coffey to succeed but let's not ignore 599 PA of data for 24. Maybe he has figured out, but a 5 game 24 PA sample isn't a sample. That is very fair, and mostly true, but I look at this a little more optimistically, even if it feels a little bit of "prisoner of the moment" As a big watcher of college baseball, I look at this as a normal sort of arc for him. As a 20 yr old, he'd be playing in a summer wood bat league, likely the Cape after just finishing his Soph year at Texas, where is was considered as someone likely to go to college IIRC. That particular summer is a huge development one imo, where you see a lot of good college hitters, become great college hitters, and pro prospects. He's doing this at High A instead of the Big12, too. He showed a good approach last year, but just hadn't put it all together quite yet. He was also a two way player in HS, so with his focus finally focusing fully on hitting, I think that's lead to better results, too. We'll see how real the adjustments and development are in a few more weeks, but hard to be anything other than encouraged, given he was was always considered a volatile outcome4 when they signed him. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 15, 2024 12:11:46 GMT -5
Radical centrist take: We should not ignore Coffey's 2023 season, and also not ignore his last five games.
His Salem numbers were not bad, though. 102 wRC+ as one of the youngest players in the league. In Greenville he was awful though.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,676 
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Post by cdj on Jun 15, 2024 13:35:17 GMT -5
Cutter Coffey was bad for a 60 AB stretch as a teen in high A, outside of that he’s always been interesting to me. He just did something a lot of talented guys coming up through Greenville couldn’t do and he should be proud of that
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 15, 2024 15:56:33 GMT -5
I don't know whether this power surge marks a change in his path or merely a hot streak, but I will say that he's definitely strong enough to go on power streaks. That boy has some huge shoulders.
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Post by adamgregory81 on Jun 15, 2024 16:21:16 GMT -5
Two other things to consider with Coffey:
1. He was thrown into a restructured minor league system, and maybe he would have benefited from some time at Lowell and/or a year at FCL.
I’ve heard commentators suggest this as one reason that other ‘22 draftees have struggled (e.g., Elijah Green is the guy that comes to mind, but there were others).
Not sure anyone could say for sure how that would affect a prospects development, but one outcome that seems reasonably like is that it would take the prospect some extra time to catch up. (Learn how to walk before you can run.)
2. Although this sample size is extremely small, I’m not sure there is any sample from his pro career that is all that telling. If I’m remembering correctly, he’s had a number of injuries over the last two years, resulting in a lot of stop and go (please correct me if I’m misremembering). Although every players numbers necessarily include the ramp up period when coming back from an injury, as well as stretches when you’re hurt, but not hurt enough to go on the IL, I think many of Coffey’s PA’s fall into one of those categories. (Again, I haven’t done the analysis, it just feels like he’s actually hit the IL a lot in two years.)
I’m any case, I generally agree that a 5 game sample, no matter how great, shouldn’t change all that much, but he’s giving some reasons to be cautiously optimistic in the very least. And of course, he’s still very, very, young - if I was his dad I’d tell him he could be whatever he wants to be (other than a spelling bee champion, or Olympic gymnast or figure skater, or… you get the point).
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,676
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Post by cdj on Jun 15, 2024 17:35:16 GMT -5
Two other things to consider with Coffey: 1. He was thrown into a restructured minor league system, and maybe he would have benefited from some time at Lowell and/or a year at FCL. I’ve heard commentators suggest this as one reason that other ‘22 draftees have struggled (e.g., Elijah Green is the guy that comes to mind, but there were others). Not sure anyone could say for sure how that would affect a prospects development, but one outcome that seems reasonably like is that it would take the prospect some extra time to catch up. (Learn how to walk before you can run.) 2. Although this sample size is extremely small, I’m not sure there is any sample from his pro career that is all that telling. If I’m remembering correctly, he’s had a number of injuries over the last two years, resulting in a lot of stop and go (please correct me if I’m misremembering). Although every players numbers necessarily include the ramp up period when coming back from an injury, as well as stretches when you’re hurt, but not hurt enough to go on the IL, I think many of Coffey’s PA’s fall into one of those categories. (Again, I haven’t done the analysis, it just feels like he’s actually hit the IL a lot in two years.) I’m any case, I generally agree that a 5 game sample, no matter how great, shouldn’t change all that much, but he’s giving some reasons to be cautiously optimistic in the very least. And of course, he’s still very, very, young - if I was his dad I’d tell him he could be whatever he wants to be (other than a spelling bee champion, or Olympic gymnast or figure skater, or… you get the point). I believe you’re misremembering regarding Coffey’s injury history, he’s hit the IL once in his career and it was this May for a few weeks. Could be possibly thinking of another CA HS SS, Mikey Romero |
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Post by chr31ter on Jun 15, 2024 19:26:36 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Jun 17, 2024 10:47:55 GMT -5
Moved these gameday posts from the other day into its own Cutter Coffey which I believe is a first (only other thread I could find for him was his draft day thread). Good discussion above that I didn't want to lose and want to continue below.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 17, 2024 11:30:51 GMT -5
| Age
| Level
| PAs
| BB rate
| K rate
| OPS
| wRC+ | Jud Fabian
| 23.7 | AA | 227 | 8.8% | 28.6% | .778 | 116 | Cutter Coffey
| 20.1 | A+ | 160 | 9.4% | 23.1% | .820 | 122 |
Just want to win this competition...
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Post by ramireja on Jun 17, 2024 11:35:25 GMT -5
Nice side-by-side provided by the wonderful Chris Clegg of Coffey's swing in April vs. June:
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 17, 2024 11:39:46 GMT -5
Nice side-by-side provided by the wonderful Chris Clegg of Coffey's swing in April vs. June: Is there a reason that all hitters wouldn't stand as far back in the box as possible? I've seen so many videos of hitting coaches teaching that that I'm surprised it's not just the default by this point. There was a kid for Oregon that I watched play a couple weeks ago that I thought looked pretty talented but he stood way up in the box, so I was wondering if there were some gains to be made there if he just moved back. Just seems too obvious to me, I guess. |
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Post by keninten on Jun 17, 2024 11:42:12 GMT -5
Nice side-by-side provided by the wonderful Chris Clegg of Coffey's swing in April vs. June: Is there a reason that all hitters wouldn't stand as far back in the box as possible? I've seen so many videos of hitting coaches teaching that that I'm surprised it's not just the default by this point. There was a kid for Oregon that I watched play a couple weeks ago that I thought looked pretty talented but he stood way up in the box, so I was wondering if there were some gains to be made there if he just moved back. Just seems too obvious to me, I guess. For a knuckleballer maybe. |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 17, 2024 12:56:28 GMT -5
Coffey named South Atlantic League player of the week for June 10-16.
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Post by seamus on Jun 17, 2024 12:59:45 GMT -5
Coffey named South Atlantic League player of the week for June 10-16. Whoever picks that award has probably never had an easier time. |
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Post by bentossaurus on Jun 17, 2024 14:19:50 GMT -5
Motion to name this thread "Wake up and smell the Coffey".
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Post by rickasadoorian on Jun 17, 2024 14:33:58 GMT -5
I’m any case, I generally agree that a 5 game sample, no matter how great, shouldn’t change all that much, but he’s giving some reasons to be cautiously optimistic in the very least. And of course, he’s still very, very, young - if I was his dad I’d tell him he could be whatever he wants to be (other than a spelling bee champion, or Olympic gymnast or figure skater, or… you get the point). He has at least put himself on the prospect map again. He has his own thread and people are talking about him. When I look at the box score, I'll actually check to see what he did. That wasn't the case 6 games ago. It will be interesting to see where he is at the end of the season. |
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Post by rismith on Jun 17, 2024 15:50:04 GMT -5
feels like a guy if he stays hot that we could package and trade for an asset that might fit a need more. Or at least provide a chip that might help enhance a deal. Good for us regardless if he begins to develop a more consistent, albeit not red hot, period of production
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Post by jchang on Jun 17, 2024 16:07:08 GMT -5
at age 20, he is far from peak strength. it is more important for him to improve his batting avg at this stage than show power that will come later.
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Post by rickasadoorian on Jun 17, 2024 16:10:07 GMT -5
This is interesting. They don't have his splits for 2022 for some reason.
2023 vs R .225/.339/.339. 21xbh/6 HR in 354 PA 46bb/88k
2023 vs L .141/.257/.203. 3xbh/0 HR in 74 PA 10bb/12k
2024 vs R .254/.336/.576. 16xbh/11 HR in 134 PA, 13bb/34k
2024 vs L .125/.192/.167. 1 xbh/0 HR in 26 PA, 2bb/3k
It's only 100 PA vs lefties, but it's still a pretty bizarre reverse split. 12bb/15k in 100 PA is great, but 4 xbh/0 HR is dreadful. One would think he'd do better vs L going forward, right? What would explain this? Just a complete lack of exposure vs L in HS? Some of it has to be random noise but it's so drastic. Maybe his BAbip vs L is like .124, anyway to look? I could see that occurring over 88 AB.
edit: easy enough to do the math myself, actually. 12/73 with balls in play. BAbip of .164.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,585
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Post by radiohix on Jun 18, 2024 10:07:13 GMT -5
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Post by stevedillard on Jun 18, 2024 10:32:14 GMT -5
Too bad our cutter production seems fixed. As cutter improves Kutter regresses
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 18, 2024 11:47:22 GMT -5
Kutter was pretty solid Sunday night against the MFY's
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