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Red Sox and Cora in contract extension talks
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Post by kingstephanos on Jul 24, 2024 18:06:11 GMT -5
Whelp. I'm not a big fan of Cora's, but...
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 24, 2024 18:19:14 GMT -5
He constantly makes pants-on-head decisions. The lineups almost every day, for example, are poorly optimized. I know the impact isn't massive, but it's real, and there is no reason not to pick up those free extra runs. For example, why has David Hamilton had more ABs in the 2 hole than any other slot this year? 2 is where your best hitter goes. I don't care that Hamilton is fast and Duran is also fast. Cora is giving Hamilton, or his PH, extra ABs late in the game that should be going to Devers. If you want to keep the speed guys together, it would be much smarter to hit Hamilton 8th than 2nd.
For years he has been destroying bullpens to the point of piling up injuries by hooking guys too quickly and overusing some guys while underusing others. I'm still ticked about the Barraclough game and haven't forgotten about him overusing guys, like Matt Barnes in his All Star year, until they fall apart. His hook has mercifully been a bit slower this year, but his choice of relievers has been as brutal as ever. He doesn't seem to think about the countermoves that other managers will make when he makes changes either, both in terms of relievers and pinch hitters. His brain goes, "Oooh, a RH reliever! I have a lefty on the bench!", while the other manager goes "I'll counter with a LH reliever, keep him in for the next few favorable matchups, and then send a thank you note to Cora for degrading his defense for no good reason".
Remember him playing Kiké Hernandez at SS for way, way too long last year, even though there were usually healthy alternatives like Chang and Reyes on the bench? It's like he's applying the logic of sticking with a slumping hitter to a fielder... it doesn't work like that in the field. Guys can improve with reps, but it takes a long time to make a meaningful improvement and Kiké was always a stop gap there. Kiké was also already 31, so good luck with him suddenly becoming a competent SS.
I don't think his decisions in the playoffs have been any better. He just happened to be at the helm in 2018 and was carried to a WS by probably the most elite Sox team of all time. There's only so much a manager can do to mess that up.
I have heard that players like to play for him, which is fine and all, but that is a very low bar to clear. Cora would legitimately do better if he just focused on the interpersonal aspects of the job and outsourced the decision making to the OOTP AI.
"Poorly optimized" man I hate the way we talk baseball now. The 2 hitter is historically a good contact and/or on-base guy, with the ability to get runners over and/or sacrifce themselves (I will not even mention the B word or else I may start a legit baseball civil war). I actually like Devers in the cleanup spot or 3 hole, I'm much more worried about not having great protection around him. Also, if Hamilton is batting 8th, who are we putting 4th? O'Neill is a better 5 hitter and Casas needs to get healthy. Seeing as how Rafaela has to hit 9th (literally has to), I am fine with Hammy there. He played Kiké at shortstop because the other shortstop that could have played was... David Hamilton. Who until 2024 couldn't hit at all. The starting pitching I actually agree players should go deeper but the problem with this is if anyone goes over 100 pitches or goes third time through the lineup, baseball ops gets all mad. And with professional coaching/management being at least 50% people management, which he is great at, I think that alone is my reason for him to stay. If players love playing for him and work harder to play better for him, thats a major plus. Finally, if he is re-signing, that means he has been promised by Management (most likely Henry and Werner here in addition to Breslow) that reinforcements for this year are coming. If he gets in some more bullpen arms, a right hand masher and maybe a starter, I think he can easily get these guys to the playoffs. Managers have always been optimizing lineups; as you say, they used to shoot for a specific kind of player in the 2 hole. It just so happens they were shooting for the wrong kind of hitter. Now we know better. Against RHP you would do something like:
1. (L) Duran, CF - 146 wRC+ vs. RHP
2. (L) Devers, 3B - 196 wRC+
3. (R) Wong, C - 106 wRC+ (McGuire would hit 8th when he plays)
4. (L) Abreu, RF - 134 wRC+
5. (L) Yoshida, DH - 117 wRC+
6. (R) O'Neill, LF - 105 wRC+ 7. (L) Hamilton, 2B - 112 wRC+ (I'm not convinced there's that much value in keeping Hamilton, Rafaela, and Duran in sequence, but you could definitely flip Smith and Hamilton if I'm wrong on that)
8. (L) Smith, 1B - 95 wRC+
9. (R) Rafaela, SS - 79 wRC+ (typically your weakest hitter hits 8th, but the ideal 9 man is basically a low OBP version of your leadoff man, so I'm erring on the side of putting Ceddanne here)
Or vs. LHP:
1. (R) Refsnyder, DH - 155 wRC+ (.426 OBP against LHP, and has hit RHP this year as well, so not an automatic PH late in games) 2. (R) O'Neill, LF - 209 wRC+ 3. (L) Duran, C - 99 wRC+
4. (R) Wong, RF - 148 wRC+
5. (L) Devers, 3B - 74 wRC+ (he'll figure it out against LHP)
6. (R) Gonzalez, SS - 118 wRC+
7. (R) Westbrook, 2B - 126 wRC+ (SSS or he'd slide up)
8. (L) Smith, 1B - 108 wRC+
9. (R) Rafaela, CF - 95 wRC+
The general idea is that 2 is your absolute best hitter, 1 is very good but more of an OBP guy (and bonus points for speed), and 4 is also very good but more of a power guy. Then in order of descending importance it's 5, 3, 6, 7, 9, and 8. If guys are close, decide based on OBP vs SLG, matchups, R/L balance, speed, health, or anything else might be relevant for the game in question. And err on the side of giving higher OBP guys more ABs. I'm not saying Cora should always use these lineups or he's dumb, but consistently deviating wildly from them (e.g. hitting Hamilton in the 2 hole vs. RHP while Devers exists) does indeed mean he's dumb. He does stuff like this so often I can't just write is off as "He's trying to make Hamilton believe he's really good... it's all just gaming human psychology to build the best team in the long run!" He's just a bad tactical manager.
I listed two players in my post who were better options at SS than Kiké. Chang was hurt for several weeks, but I believe Reyes was healthy all year. Arroyo is another guy who was hurt for some time, but who would have been better by dint of being less below replacement level. -1.4 fWAR in 86 games is absolutely putrid, and made him the worst player in the majors at the time of his trade. He was on pace for -23 OAA at SS while with Boston last year. A player putting up numbers like that is literally unplayable at SS. Like, maybe for an inning when you empty your bench in extra innings, but that's about it.
Him re-signing says nothing about who will or will not sign. He's being paid $7 million a year, which is like 3x more per year than he ever got as a player. Most people would put up with the supposed indignity of going less than all-in at the deadline for that kind of money.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,524
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Post by asm18 on Jul 24, 2024 18:36:08 GMT -5
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 24, 2024 18:58:15 GMT -5
it just makes sense. Happy to hear it. Grass is always greener....you know the drill.
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Post by costpet on Jul 24, 2024 19:03:25 GMT -5
Given what management gave Cora, he's done a remarkable job. I'm glad he's staying. I think he's perfect for the younger guys coming up. Speaking Spanish doesn't hurt, either.
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Post by bluechip on Jul 24, 2024 19:30:13 GMT -5
Three years 21 million. Based on my extremely quick research, this deal will pay him significantly more than he made in his 14 year playing career.
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Post by wvusox on Jul 24, 2024 19:39:06 GMT -5
Three years 21 million. Based on my extremely quick research, this deal will pay him significantly more than he made in his 14 year playing career. Interesting that it happened today, Breslow must have given him $1 million for every run we gave up today
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Post by incandenza on Jul 24, 2024 23:58:26 GMT -5
Hope the team celebrates by not seemingly giving up down the stretch for the third year in a row!
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Post by pappyman99 on Jul 25, 2024 13:59:25 GMT -5
I mean look at his rosters from 2021 to today and yes his teams outperformed expectations, especially the last 2.5 years
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Post by incandenza on Jul 25, 2024 14:11:47 GMT -5
I mean look at his rosters from 2021 to today and yes his teams outperformed expectations, especially the last 2.5 years "Expectations" can mean whatever you want I guess, but 78 wins in 2022 and 2023 was at or below any rigorous projections that were made at the time that I'm aware of.
You can argue whether that had anything to do with Cora, but "he worked wonders with the 2022 and 2023 rosters" is a tough argument to swallow.
(For the record I'm basically indifferent about this extension.)
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Post by awalkinthepark on Jul 26, 2024 9:19:07 GMT -5
Question for people who might know more: is there any estimate on how much the Red Sox spend on baseball operations outside of the onfield payroll? Baseball operations obviously includes a lot outside of the team itself. If the budget Henry gives Breslow is for all of baseball ops, and Breslow (and Bloom before him) decides to spend a larger portion of it on areas which are not included in the onfield payroll calculations, that could explain the dip in spending the last few years. The only thing I remember is Kennedy saying that their spending on 'baseball operations' is as much as anyone in baseball last year, I think during the press conference when Bloom was let go. The $21 million Cora is going to make has to come from somewhere, right? I can't imagine Henry saying to Breslow that he can have an extra $21 million if he retains Cora, but $21 million less if he doesn't.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,524
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Post by asm18 on Jul 28, 2024 8:34:14 GMT -5
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 28, 2024 9:03:54 GMT -5
Question for people who might know more: is there any estimate on how much the Red Sox spend on baseball operations outside of the onfield payroll? Baseball operations obviously includes a lot outside of the team itself. If the budget Henry gives Breslow is for all of baseball ops, and Breslow (and Bloom before him) decides to spend a larger portion of it on areas which are not included in the onfield payroll calculations, that could explain the dip in spending the last few years. The only thing I remember is Kennedy saying that their spending on 'baseball operations' is as much as anyone in baseball last year, I think during the press conference when Bloom was let go. The $21 million Cora is going to make has to come from somewhere, right? I can't imagine Henry saying to Breslow that he can have an extra $21 million if he retains Cora, but $21 million less if he doesn't. I think there’s been reporting that there’s some total budget Breslow has to work with and the manager’s salary is included in it. Maybe he got them to increase the budget for Cora, which seems possible because the ownership likes him, but otherwise yeah it’s money out of a pool that could be spent elsewhere.
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Post by markm7 on Jul 28, 2024 20:38:05 GMT -5
What was the rush to extend a guy who’s now for 3 straight years let the team fall apart
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 28, 2024 20:46:31 GMT -5
What was the rush to extend a guy who’s now for 3 straight years let the team fall apart Lol
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Post by markm7 on Jul 28, 2024 20:52:18 GMT -5
What was the rush to extend a guy who’s now for 3 straight years let the team fall apart Lol It’s not all on Cora but you can’t let the team fall apart 3 straight years on your watch and get an extension
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Post by awalkinthepark on Jul 29, 2024 8:52:26 GMT -5
It’s not all on Cora but you can’t let the team fall apart 3 straight years on your watch and get an extension It's not Cora's fault he is handed a ~.500 roster before injuries every year.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 29, 2024 9:37:32 GMT -5
It’s not all on Cora but you can’t let the team fall apart 3 straight years on your watch and get an extension Have you noticed that Bloom was fired and not Cora? What does that tell about how the blame pie was assessed? And you did notice many pundits pointing out the Sox FO not doing enough to improve the winter this roster? So what are you realistically expecting the team to be? A juggernaut? He's has mediocre teams that at times were even worse than that. This team clearly needed more pitching but the answer was Bailey can fix them. Apparently Bailey isnt the miracle worker he was reputed to be and working and the pitching talent needed improvement. Despite all that, the team is in contention for the watered down postseason qualification and just needs to finish in front of a couple of other flawed teams like the Ms and Royals
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Post by 0ap0 on Jul 29, 2024 10:38:46 GMT -5
What was the rush to extend a guy who’s now for 3 straight years let the team fall apart This year he'll for sure remember to tell the guys "Don't play crappy at the end of the season."
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