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The Big Bad Mookie Betts Thread
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Post by jbberlo22 on Aug 15, 2013 9:44:06 GMT -5
Wow great job man. Thats really interesting. Can you just explain what this statisitc is? Does it predict that betts will have a ,284 eqa at his peek in the majors?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 15, 2013 12:27:32 GMT -5
Wow great job man. Thats really interesting. Can you just explain what this statisitc is? Does it predict that betts will have a ,284 eqa at his peek in the majors? Hopefully, he gets more than a peek at the majors. Thanks for the detailed analysis, eric. Davenport's stuff is the coin of the realm because the realm is so small, sort of the San Marino of statistical projection. It's very useful to have another look at the numbers with the Sox' system as context. At the very least, it's eye-opening that, as you say, the system right now hosts six of the top seven performances excluding Lavarnaway. You're right, he is a special case. I think the biggest reason is that the re-working of his swing has so changed his mechanics that the power seems to have gone awol, at least for now.
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Post by jbberlo22 on Aug 15, 2013 13:20:07 GMT -5
*peak sorry. Is that the projection for the best part of his career?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 15, 2013 22:54:52 GMT -5
*peak sorry. Is that the projection for the best part of his career? Exactly. I'm not sure how he defines peak -- presumably the average of three best seasons, which is common. But as I understand it, he threw every bit of prospect data he could get his hands on into a big statistical grinder, and tried to come up with a set of formulas that would predict peak based on the data. I'm almost positive that he didn't limit the analysis to guys who made the majors, since that would introduce a huge selection bias. So the peak is measured using his "Davenport Translations," which is what he calls his MLE's (Major League Equivalences). Now, MLEs are a hornet's nest. The available systems (Clay's, Bill James' which you can find each year in the Minor League Baseball Analyst from Ron Shandler's crew, and Jeff Sackman's version for hitters only for the late lamented MinorLeagueSplits.com, which you can calculate manually here) completely disagree with one another! As a result, I developed my own set of simple MLE conversions for pitchers, which you can use to convert an ERA or FIP from one level to any other. (I've been meaning to redo that for hitters, and to compare the existing systems to it.) What Clay and the others have done, converting each separate skill component (SO rate, BB rate, and so on) and then combining them, gives a much better projection, but is obviously a much more complex system to devise. Now, the funny thing is, I'm almost positive that his straight DT's are too liberal. But for whatever reason, his peak DT's seem much more on-the-nose. As I said earlier, the only quibble I have with them is that they give a lot less credit than you'd think for being young for your level, which you would expect from a system that had the differences between levels of play as too mild. But they are an awesome tool for following the arc of a career in the minors and into the majors. Guess who these guys are (answer at the end): .277, .275, .239, .248, .275 rookie season, .274, .259 so far this year. .268, .249, .236, .273, .231, .237, .176 so far this year (not with us). This one starts in 2003 and is much tougher: .252, .216, .241, .212, .241, .279 ( ), .234, .227 BTW, I misspoke in the original post: Pedroia's MVP season was .294, not .300 (that's adjusted for position). If Bett's Peak DT proves to be true, his bat will play in an OF corner, where he would presumably also be a plus defender. You could see him as the LF of the future, easily. Answer: Josh Reddick, Oscar Tejeda, Dusty Brown.
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Post by semperfisox on Aug 21, 2013 11:53:41 GMT -5
This kid is starting to show all star type characteristics. Have to imagine he'll be a top 10 spec in our system sooner rather than later.
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 21, 2013 12:44:20 GMT -5
Yeah, and if you read Eric Van's analysis, go back to the bottom of page 3 and read the analysis. Very interesting.
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Post by knuckledown on Aug 21, 2013 13:44:47 GMT -5
Easy to understand why 2B is his natural position and I think the comparisons to Pedroia seem quite compelling. If he is going to play for Boston in the majors, at what position will it be?
Eric, very interesting and informative analysis, as per usual.
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badfishnbc
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Post by badfishnbc on Aug 22, 2013 10:20:14 GMT -5
Easy to understand why 2B is his natural position and I think the comparisons to Pedroia seem quite compelling. If he is going to play for Boston in the majors, at what position will it be? Eric, very interesting and informative analysis, as per usual. My thoughts exactly. While it's too early to assume he'll continue developing at a fast clip and be majors-ready in a few years, there is still the roadblock that is Dustin Pedroia and his long-term extension. Could Betts find himself getting some reps in centerfield in a few years?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 22, 2013 10:35:11 GMT -5
And then there's Baseball Prospectus' opinion: Position Prospect of the Day: Mookie Betts, 2B, Red Sox (High-A Salem): 3-5, 3B, HR, R, 3 RBI. Betts has bat speed, plus running ability, and a lot of things that he has yet to figure out. Betts has an everyday-player ceiling, but he will have to work on his plate discipline and improve his hit tool if he is going to reach it. It is much more likely that he ends up a very good utility player. www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21582ADD: I do think BP is a fine service with some excellent analysts. This one was written by Zach Mortimer, excellent analyst isn't the phrase I'd use in his case.
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 22, 2013 10:38:09 GMT -5
Or corner OF
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 22, 2013 11:02:49 GMT -5
Moving Mookie to a less premium position reduces his value. Why would the Sox want to reduce the value of an asset ?
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Post by elguapo on Aug 22, 2013 11:20:24 GMT -5
Moving Mookie to a less premium position reduces his value. Why would the Sox want to reduce the value of an asset ? It's not ideal, but - if any prospect is major league ready with a strong bat but blocked at their ideal position, you may look to use them at another position at least in the short term to improve the team. Obviously that point for Betts is some way off.
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Post by jmei on Aug 22, 2013 11:46:45 GMT -5
My favorite part of Mookie's performance this year is that he's excelled despite relatively normal BABIPs-- .322 in Greenville and .293 in Salem. He might not scout as someone who has a plus hit tool, but he rarely strikes out (indeed, he's walked more than he struck out at every level in the minors so far). Even if the power is somewhat of an illusion, he's flashed above-average performance in each of the tools I look for in a minor league player (contact, patience, speed, defense) and is one of the more exciting position players in the system for me.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 22, 2013 12:02:35 GMT -5
My favorite part of Mookie's performance this year is that he's excelled despite relatively normal BABIPs-- .322 in Greenville and .293 in Salem. He might not scout as someone who has a plus hit tool, but he rarely strikes out (indeed, he's walked more than he struck out at every level in the minors so far). Even if the power is somewhat of an illusion, he's flashed above-average performance in each of the tools I look for in a minor league player (contact, patience, speed, defense) and is one of the more exciting position players in the system for me. Wasn't big on watching the greeneville games when he was there.. obvious reasons as that team just didn't have many people to watch.. But the few games saw him in? What reminded me of, was a Crisp like guy, who could hopefully one day backup IF positions, or maybe even some OF positions like was mentioned above. His swing plays with his speed and he seemed there to have a really nice eye. The team could really use someone as a backup who runs well and plays half a dozen positions, like a Bonifacio, only knows the strike zone and takes a walk. Something rare.
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 22, 2013 12:07:23 GMT -5
Do you think the power is an illusion? Aren't Salem and Greenville pitchers parks? To flash that kind of power in those parks seems the opposite of Lars or everyone flashing power in Lancaster. Plus, his scouting report says plus bat speed, right? Isn't that a better generator of power than height? I'm not sure there are reasons to think his power is an illusion other than initial scouting reports seemed to indicate he didn't have much power.
Also, agree with elguapo - and I should have been more clear - I don't think Beets is going to get moved anytime soon. Still be nice to see him sustain this success in AA before making any decisions. And while his athleticism might allow a moves to CF, as long as Bradley is here, I doubt he'll be playing there. But if he can keep up the power numbers, he might fit in one of the corner OF spots, especially with the lack of great OF prospects in e system. Or maybe he could be traded for an OF?
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Post by jmei on Aug 22, 2013 12:32:53 GMT -5
I think he'll probably hit for less power in the major leagues than he has this year. Salem is a pitcher's park, although I believe Greenville is somewhat of a hitter's park. His scouting reports have also trended more towards solid-average than plus batspeed, with a lot of scouts mentioning his compact swing and ability to make contact rather than the ability to drive the ball. I think between his size and the initial scouting reports, he won't hit more than 10-12 home runs in the majors (although with his speed and line-drive stroke, he'll have a bunch of doubles, too).
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Post by jmei on Aug 22, 2013 12:42:28 GMT -5
Here are some non-SP.com scouting reports: Jim Shonerd, BA, June 2013: Chris (phoenix): Thanks for taking my question. I can't find anything on mookie betts beyond a great stat line. Can you comment on his tools and if he has become any kind of prospect? Jim Shonerd: He’s a prospect. Not a huge one, but a prospect nonetheless. He doesn’t really have any tools that wow you, but he’s an intelligent hitter with a gap-to-gap approach. He’s a good runner, so he could be a leadoff-type guy. Mark Smith, Fangraphs, April 2013: Maybe I’m just a sucker for second basemen. Mookie Betts is not a big guy, either, as he’s listed at 5’9/175, but he looks much stronger than Vinicio. Betts also looked much better at the plate, something he’ll need at a less valuable position. The results in the series didn’t show it, but he was able to make consistent hard contact, although it ended up in fielders’ gloves. Betts also showed an ability to work the count, but he didn’t show much power, even when he hit a hanging breaking ball toward a gap. Defensively, he looked fine, though he wasn’t really tested at the position. Betts will have to hit to continue moving along the development path, but he’s probably more likely to end up as a utility player. He might fit better in the lower section, but I think there’s something to work with the 20-year old. Jason Parks, BP, July 2013: A fifth-round pick in the 2011 draft, Betts was a multi-sport athlete with good feel for baseball, an ideal talent to bring into the professional fold. In a limited look, his plus athleticism was obvious, as he showed easy plus speed on times to first and when on base. His swing had bat speed and was short to the ball, and rarely did it fail to find some contact, showing off his natural bat-to-ball ability. The pop isn’t empty but more line-drive than over-the-fence, and with his wheels, could produce solid extra-base hit numbers. In the field, the glove wasn’t flashy but the range was above average, and the overall defensive profile could give him some left-side versatility if he’s eventually pushed into a utility role. While Betts doesn’t look to be a top prospect with a first-division ceiling, he does have the type of feel for the game and athletic talent to develop into an interesting player, one with bat-to-ball skills at the plate and some leather in the field. He’s fun to watch. Big motor in a little frame. Jason Parks, BP, July 2013: Betts can play baseball. He's a fast-twitch athlete that brings it into game action. I put eyes on him in Salem, and he can go get it at second base, with good feel for fielding and above-average range. The bat has some flaws, and its not going to be a power bat at any level. But he can stick it, showing the ability to square velocity and use the entire field, which puts his speed into play and adds dimension to his game. I need more looks, but he's a prospect. Is he a first-division type? I don't think so. But he has some skills. Alex Speier, May 2013: Betts is not a physically imposing player. However, though listed at 5-foot-9 and 156 pounds, he has some juice in his bat at times, as became evident when he crushed his homer on Wednesday. “He’s worth watching,” said one NL talent evaluator. “He’s wiry strong, has got a little bat speed and strength, runs a little bit.” At a relatively young age (20), Betts demonstrates an advanced approach, excellent knowledge of the strike zone and good bat control (hence the low strikeout rates). The Sox think he’s at his best when staying up the middle and hitting to the opposite field, though the team would also like to see him take some chances with more aggressive swings early in the count when he has good pitches to hit. Even so, Betts has shown consistently good at-bats, making him the most intriguing position prospect on the Greenville team thus far this year.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 22, 2013 12:44:50 GMT -5
And then there's Baseball Prospectus' opinion: Position Prospect of the Day: Mookie Betts, 2B, Red Sox (High-A Salem): 3-5, 3B, HR, R, 3 RBI. Betts has bat speed, plus running ability, and a lot of things that he has yet to figure out. Betts has an everyday-player ceiling, but he will have to work on his plate discipline and improve his hit tool if he is going to reach it. It is much more likely that he ends up a very good utility player. www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21582ADD: I do think BP is a fine service with some excellent analysts. This one was written by Zach Mortimer, excellent analyst isn't the phrase I'd use in his case. I just left this comment: It's interesting that you point out that Betts needs to work on his plate discipline, since ... [cough] ... he had the highest BB/K ratio of all 211 players in low-A (minimum 300 PA) before his promotion to high-A, was voted as having the best plate discipline by league managers in BA's annual survey, and has more BB than K at every level he's played at, including high-A after his promotion. Clay Davenport's Peak (age-adjusted) Translations have him ranked as the 3rd best hitter in the SAL relative to his position, after [Greg] Bird and Rosell Herrera (neither of whom have been challenged with a promotion to high-A), and, after his promotion, the 3rd best hitter in the Carolina League, after Garin Cecchini and Michael Ohlman.
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 22, 2013 13:04:31 GMT -5
Just a few thoughts that are relevant to the thread but may go a bit further. With MLB hopefully going in the direction of PEDs being greatly reduced, IMO, it increases the need for more platoon type situations. The drugs have helped players stay healthy and productive over the course of a very long and demanding season. We can see it working for the Sox this year with the outfield situation. Only problem there is that we have nobody on the bench who is an exceptional base runner, Dave Roberts. We already see fewer big bat DH's and more versatility at the DH. Mookie could be a great utility player who actually gets 300-400 plus at bats a year, more like a platooning situation. I love Pedey but doesn't he look like he could use a day off? Likewise with Drew and Victorino at this point. In the past players have not embraced the idea but why? There has always been a stigma attached to it but hey if your OPS is great against righties and soso against lefties why not embrace ala J. Gomes. There is a reason why he is a clubhouse leader even though he isn't a fulltime starter. Heck Mookie could also play in the outfield and play 4-5 games a week. Then we have Marrero to think about. Not everyone in the Sox system who is MLB ready will end up in Boston, there will be trades but I think the need for qualitiy platoon/utility players should become more of the norm rather than the exception. On top of that it obviously helps in injury situations. Bottom line, if Mookie continues to shine in the future he has all the tools/skills to play many positions and be a super platoon guy who plays and or pinch hits/runs/defense in just about every game. Very Valuable!!
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 22, 2013 13:10:33 GMT -5
This kid is starting to show all star type characteristics. Have to imagine he'll be a top 10 spec in our system sooner rather than later. I don't see him being top 10 in the system anytime soon (barring a major trade(s) gutting the system). If that happens (in-addition to), XB, JBJ, Webster, Britton, RDLR, and Workman all losing their prospect eligibility early in 2014, THEN I could potentially see it. He's 24th right now on this site, so I don't think he's necessarily close to Top 10 level in the near future. Not a knock on him, I think he's a fine prospect, there are just a lot of more talented kids in the system ahead of him right now IMO.
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Post by jmei on Aug 22, 2013 13:30:43 GMT -5
Reminder: specific discussion of SP.com prospect rankings should go in the Meta Forum. Thanks!
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 22, 2013 16:48:08 GMT -5
And then there's Baseball Prospectus' opinion: Position Prospect of the Day: Mookie Betts, 2B, Red Sox (High-A Salem): 3-5, 3B, HR, R, 3 RBI. Betts has bat speed, plus running ability, and a lot of things that he has yet to figure out. Betts has an everyday-player ceiling, but he will have to work on his plate discipline and improve his hit tool if he is going to reach it. It is much more likely that he ends up a very good utility player. www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21582ADD: I do think BP is a fine service with some excellent analysts. This one was written by Zach Mortimer, excellent analyst isn't the phrase I'd use in his case. Yeah, let's put it this way: I was having a conversation that touched on Mortimer just yesterday, and the above jibes with that conversation.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 22, 2013 16:54:11 GMT -5
Here are some non-SP.com scouting reports: ... Mark Smith, Fangraphs, April 2013: Maybe I’m just a sucker for second basemen. Mookie Betts is not a big guy, either, as he’s listed at 5’9/175, ... Where does Fangraphs get him at 175 lbs, where everyone else says exactly 156?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 22, 2013 21:30:36 GMT -5
Moving Mookie to a less premium position reduces his value. Why would the Sox want to reduce the value of an asset ? It's not ideal, but - if any prospect is major league ready with a strong bat but blocked at their ideal position, you may look to use them at another position at least in the short term to improve the team. Obviously that point for Betts is some way off. Under those circumstances, a trade is far better. Otherwise you are reducing the team total value. Moving Mookie to any position other than shortstop would be roughly the equivalent of trading Mookie for a prospect that was the same age but had zero positional experience in a position he doesn't profile well in. Would you trade Mookie for an underpowered corner outfielder with no experience there?* ADD: * Assuming the power doesn't return. One factor is that he's 5'9" not the usual height for corner anything.
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Post by elguapo on Aug 22, 2013 21:42:59 GMT -5
Under those circumstances, a trade is far better. Yes, we know. But you can't always get equal value at the drop of a hat.
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