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Rankings & Movement - Rest of year through 2025
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Post by abrinker on Jul 31, 2024 17:43:40 GMT -5
![]() Coming out of the draft signing period and trade deadline, I thought I'd look forward to how the end-of-season rankings and prospect movement might play out. Here's my prediction (arrows represent big movers in 2024): 1 Mayer 2 Anthony 3 Teel 4 Campbell 5 Montgomery 6 Arias ▲ 7 Bleis 8 Perales 9 Cespedes 10 Sandlin ▼ 11 Zanetello ▼ 12 Castro 13 Meidroth ▼ 14 Fitts 15 Tolle ▲ 16 Garcia, Jo ▼ 17 Rodriguez ▲ 18 Cason 19 Garcia, Jh ▲ 20 Romero Others: ▲ 21 Paez ▼ 23 Dobbins 26 Neely ▲ 28 Riemer 30 Ehrhard ▲ 34 Tygart ▲ 36 Reyes Historically, from 2019-2023, (excl COVID year 2020), several prospects see their SP ranking rise considerably from the beginning (Apr) to the end (Oct) of the season. SP Rank
Increase | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | Avg | | 10-20 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | | 20-30 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | | 30-40 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | | 40+ | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
For example, on average 2 prospects will jump 10-20 positions a year; another 2 will rise 20-30 positions; and so forth. (*This doesn’t take into account new prospects added to or removed from the rankings during the year, due to trades, draft picks, graduations, etc. Assume the puts and takes roughly net out, leaving the above movements directionally representative. ) Obviously, this is a fool’s errand, but assuming a typical pattern in 2025, who do we predict will be the movers next season? My predictions: | 10-20 | 20-30 | 30-40 | 40+ | | Riemer | Tygart | Turner | Brito, E | | Paez | Reyes | Valera |
| | Garcia, Jo |
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Entering year-end RS Top 10 will be: - Paez (offseason work will pay off and will enter camp having added a few ticks to FB (sit/top 93-95/97), making CU plus-plus
- Garcia, Jo (comes back from ACL mid-season and tears up A and A+, winds up on backend of MLB Top 100 lists)
- Turner (2025 candidate for Campbellian hit transformation; high contact, underdeveloped power, potential 4 plus tools)
Other notables: - Mayer, Teel, and Campbell will graduate, and new top 5 will be: Bleis (will have a resurgent campaign across A+/AA/AAA that places him back on MLB Top 10 prospect trajectory); Anthony (AAA); Arias (AA); Montgomery (AA); Paez (AA)
- Tygart (AA) will take to starting and lab will enhance repertoire, thrusting him onto backend of RS Top 10
- Romero (AAA) and Cason (A) will finish just outside of RS Top 10
- Zanetello will take a Lugo 2023 tumble, while Castro, ERC, Dobbins will struggle
- Edwin Brito (A) will start in FCL and will be a beast (ala 2024 Cespedes)
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 31, 2024 18:39:51 GMT -5
A lot of fun stuff to digest.
One thing that's taking longer for me is the guys jumping 10-40+ spots. It seems that if you're predictions came true, virtually all of those guys would be in the top 20 (some top 10) by the end of next season, which would mean a bunch of guys currently there would fall out (some would graduate, as you point out). I guess it's possible but definitely bold.
My 2¢ added the top 20 would have Bleis 4, Sandlin 8, Romero 11, Rodriguez 12, and Cason 13. Everyone else pushed down a slot to make room.
A lot of interesting names in the 20s too. Looking forward to seeing it all shake out.
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Post by brendan98 on Aug 2, 2024 14:36:04 GMT -5
I didn't see Priester on your list. Thinking he is one of the top 3 pitchers in the system now. Maybe it is because he's lost his rookie status?
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Post by finaliz3d on Aug 2, 2024 16:28:34 GMT -5
I didn't see Priester on your list. Thinking he is one of the top 3 pitchers in the system now. Maybe it is because he's lost his rookie status? doesn't count as a prospect anymore he's thrown like 90 innings in the majors, which is insane given he's 23 and got to the majors at 22. we haven't had a guy like that, the closest recently being bello, but even he got up at 23, and he was only called up because everybody got injured in 2022. |
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tedf
Rookie
Posts: 162 
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Post by tedf on Aug 2, 2024 17:35:32 GMT -5
I didn't see Priester on your list. Thinking he is one of the top 3 pitchers in the system now. Maybe it is because he's lost his rookie status? doesn't count as a prospect anymore he's thrown like 90 innings in the majors, which is insane given he's 23 and got to the majors at 22. we haven't had a guy like that, the closest recently being bello, but even he got up at 23, and he was only called up because everybody got injured in 2022. Priester may have been rushed a bit last year... |
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Post by sparky7576 on Aug 3, 2024 0:17:19 GMT -5
My ideas for the newest rankings post trade dealine & draft signings.
Your thoughts are welcome..... TY in advance
1) Anthony
2) Mayer
3) Teel
4) Montgomery
5) Campbell
6) Cespedes
7) Perales
8) Cason
9) Sandlin
10) Bleis
11) Zanetello
12) Johstynxon Garcia
13) Arias
14) Yohanfran Garcia
15) Blaze
16) Elmer
17) Dobbins
18) Early
19) Neely
20) Fitts
21) Yordanny
22) Tolle
23) Romero
24) Meidroth
25) Mullins
26) Guerrero
27) Penrod
28) Castro
29) Wikelman
30) Wehunt
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Post by finaliz3d on Aug 3, 2024 2:04:42 GMT -5
My ideas for the newest rankings post trade dealine & draft signings. Your thoughts are welcome..... TY in advance 1) Anthony 2) Mayer 3) Teel 4) Montgomery 5) Campbell 6) Cespedes 7) Perales 8) Cason 9) Sandlin 10) Bleis 11) Zanetello 12) Johstynxon Garcia 13) Arias 14) Yohanfran Garcia 15) Blaze 16) Elmer 17) Dobbins 18) Early 19) Neely 20) Fitts 21) Yordanny 22) Tolle 23) Romero 24) Meidroth 25) Mullins 26) Guerrero 27) Penrod 28) Castro 29) Wikelman 30) Wehunt Cason in the top 10? Blaze jumps up? Arias doesn't move and gets surpassed from Jhostynxon? Neely over Tolle and over Fitts? That down on Meidroth and Castro? Bleis drops to 10 despite performing better over the last month?
I'm kind of just lost.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 3, 2024 7:49:29 GMT -5
OK, I'll bite. Who the hell is Cason ?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 3, 2024 8:01:12 GMT -5
OK, I'll bite. Who the hell is Cason ? Conrad Cason. The kid they drafted in the 9th round who can hit as a SS and can pitch and theyll let him try to be a 2 way player. Interesting player. I wouldnt put him in the top 10 though. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 3, 2024 9:57:49 GMT -5
OK, I'll bite. Who the hell is Cason ? Conrad Cason. The kid they drafted in the 9th round who can hit as a SS and can pitch and theyll let him try to be a 2 way player. Interesting player. I wouldnt put him in the top 10 though. Ah OK. Don't all 8th rounders who sign underslot make the top 10 ? |
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 3, 2024 10:15:54 GMT -5
Conrad Cason. The kid they drafted in the 9th round who can hit as a SS and can pitch and theyll let him try to be a 2 way player. Interesting player. I wouldnt put him in the top 10 though. Ah OK. Don't all 8th rounders who sign underslot make the top 10 ? He signed for $1M overslot, their third highest paid player of the draft |
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Post by rickasadoorian on Aug 3, 2024 11:23:41 GMT -5
My ideas for the newest rankings post trade dealine & draft signings. Your thoughts are welcome..... TY in advance 1) Anthony 2) Mayer 3) Teel 4) Montgomery 5) Campbell 6) Cespedes 7) Perales 8) Cason 9) Sandlin 10) Bleis 11) Zanetello 12) Johstynxon Garcia 13) Arias 14) Yohanfran Garcia 15) Blaze 16) Elmer 17) Dobbins 18) Early 19) Neely 20) Fitts 21) Yordanny 22) Tolle 23) Romero 24) Meidroth 25) Mullins 26) Guerrero 27) Penrod 28) Castro 29) Wikelman 30) Wehunt Cason in the top 10? Blaze jumps up? Arias doesn't move and gets surpassed from Jhostynxon? Neely over Tolle and over Fitts? That down on Meidroth and Castro? Bleis drops to 10 despite performing better over the last month?
I'm kind of just lost.
Hell, Johanfran missed the season and gained 4 spots. Definitely a weird list. I could see Bleis dropping some, but not to 10. Zanatello could drop out of the top 20 if he finishes the year with a 40%+ K rate. Jordan is going to fall out of the top 20 barring a crazy finish to the year. Fitts could possibly drop out of the top 10 too. I think there's going to be a lot of change in the 8-20 range at season's end. Considering 3 of the current top 15 aren't even in the org anymore, I'm not exactly going out on a limb. I could see Jhostynxon in that 10-20 range possibly leapfrogging his brother in the process. Possibly Mikey Romero too. Arias could crack the top 10. You mentioned Meidroth and Castro, they may not rise up the rankings but they definitely aren't dropping. 1. Anthony 2. Mayer 3. Teel 4. Campbell 5. Montgomery 6. Arias 7. Bleis 8. Perales 9. Cespedes 10. Sandlin 11. Meidroth 12. Fitts 13. Elmer 14. Jhostynxon 15. Castro 16. Tolle 17. Johanfran 18. Romero 19. Cason 20. Zanatello |
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Post by sparky7576 on Aug 3, 2024 21:33:38 GMT -5
Cason in the top 10? Blaze jumps up? Arias doesn't move and gets surpassed from Jhostynxon? Neely over Tolle and over Fitts? That down on Meidroth and Castro? Bleis drops to 10 despite performing better over the last month?
I'm kind of just lost.
Hell, Johanfran missed the season and gained 4 spots. Definitely a weird list. I could see Bleis dropping some, but not to 10. Zanatello could drop out of the top 20 if he finishes the year with a 40%+ K rate. Jordan is going to fall out of the top 20 barring a crazy finish to the year. Fitts could possibly drop out of the top 10 too. I think there's going to be a lot of change in the 8-20 range at season's end. Considering 3 of the current top 15 aren't even in the org anymore, I'm not exactly going out on a limb. I could see Jhostynxon in that 10-20 range possibly leapfrogging his brother in the process. Possibly Mikey Romero too. Arias could crack the top 10. You mentioned Meidroth and Castro, they may not rise up the rankings but they definitely aren't dropping. 1. Anthony 2. Mayer 3. Teel 4. Campbell 5. Montgomery 6. Arias 7. Bleis 8. Perales 9. Cespedes 10. Sandlin 11. Meidroth 12. Fitts 13. Elmer 14. Jhostynxon 15. Castro 16. Tolle 17. Johanfran 18. Romero 19. Cason 20. Zanatello Nice. Arias all the way up to 6? Wow! I think it's difficult to grade someone who is young w/ceiling versus someone who's worked their way through MiLB with steadiness, but doesn't look like a surefire Major Leaguer. I could be talking about tons of guys, but two that fit this thought process are Sandlin & Fitts. Frankly, Fitts has pitched better, but Sandlin's stuff is better & appears to have a higher ceiling. I understand the hype on Bleis, but over the last 40+ years, I have seen a myriad of guys with the body & athletic ability of Bleis, & frankly, most of them can't learn to hit water if they fell out of a boat. Hence, I am from the "show me" state as far as Bleis is concerned. A little bit of success doesn't a top prospect make. Ian Cundell talks about this with the recently traded Cutter Coffey. I've seen a couple of posts clamoring for Jhostynxon to be considered for the Top 100. Is that really possible? If so, how many guys in the Red Sox system would he have to jump over to get there? To answer the guy who'd rather put down and make wrong than to discuss, I've seen some scouts believe Neely to be a potential starter & Tolle to be destined for the bullpen. If that's the case, the starter would have more helium in his ranking. But, time will tell. I am rooting for all of these guys. I love when I am wrong and a player exceeds expectations or projections. Any other ideas gentlemen? |
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