asm18
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Posts: 2,597
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Post by asm18 on Aug 24, 2024 17:57:13 GMT -5
If they lose tomorrow and get swept, it might not mathematically be season over, but emotionally it’ll sure feel that way
Sonny Gray returns to Target Field to face the Twins tonight
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Aug 24, 2024 17:57:26 GMT -5
So when does the stretch with easy games for the Sox and tough games for the Royals start ?
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Post by ephus on Aug 24, 2024 17:59:51 GMT -5
Thank God for the WooSox.
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Post by dirtdog on Aug 24, 2024 18:03:05 GMT -5
I posted the Anthony golf shot. Maybe that will crack a smile.
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Post by cheers on Aug 24, 2024 18:06:13 GMT -5
This is disappointing. None of you made me grumpy today, so I have nobody to lash out at. Eyeballing the neighbors...
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Post by incandenza on Aug 24, 2024 18:10:57 GMT -5
Rafaela: down 3 runs with 2 outs in the 9th, he dodges two potential HBPs, swings at two more balls, and ultimately flies out lazily to right.
Such a huge proportion of the things he does are either thrilling or exasperating.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,597
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Post by asm18 on Aug 24, 2024 19:56:46 GMT -5
Phillies up 5-1 against the Royals… but Twins up 5-0 against the Cardinals. Looks like we’re gonna be down 4.5 gb of both
5 games in 4 games against the Blue Jays this upcoming week. Sox are 4-1 vs Toronto so far, and they probably need a repeat of that…
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Post by finaliz3d on Aug 24, 2024 20:32:43 GMT -5
6-0 win for the Twins... well, 4.5 isn't completely out of it I guess? Trying to find something positive out of this :l
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Aug 24, 2024 20:36:06 GMT -5
It will take 23-11 to reach 90 wins. Winning 2/3 of the remaining games. That is a tall order. It really is going to take a massive, Seattle like, collapse from one of the Central Division top 3 for this to be a playoff season.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,597
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Post by asm18 on Aug 24, 2024 20:58:44 GMT -5
6-0 win for the Twins... well, 4.5 isn't completely out of it I guess? Trying to find something positive out of this :l I think a reasonable goal is with a good week this upcoming week you can hope to get that gap to 2 to 3ish games back to close August, and at bare minimum get close to somebody when you play the White Sox and Twins/Royals play each other weekend of Sept 6 with a few weeks left. As oldfaithful2019 noted, it would require 23-11 to reach 90 wins. I’m doubtful the win total ceiling for this team is that high. I think you need a combo of both the Sox getting hot and one of MIN/KC faltering… which is definitely possible. But we’re running out of margin of error here
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 24, 2024 21:00:29 GMT -5
Reality check time. The Sox are 67-61 - only 6 games over .500. We hit the season high points on July 14 - 11 games over and the last game before the AS break. Sox were 53-42.
After the break, the record is 14-19. Home record is 5-9.
Remainder of the season is 18 home games and 16 road games. If we go .500, that would put us at 84 wins. That would be a better clip than we've been playing the second half. Fangraphs has us right at that - 84 wins projected.
A lot has to go right with our pitching - and a lot has to go wrong for Minn and/or KC and/or Cle - and each of those teams are now near 90% probability.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 24, 2024 23:14:54 GMT -5
Reality check time. The Sox are 67-61 - only 6 games over .500. We hit the season high points on July 14 - 11 games over and the last game before the AS break. Sox were 53-42. After the break, the record is 14-19. Home record is 5-9. Remainder of the season is 18 home games and 16 road games. If we go .500, that would put us at 84 wins. That would be a better clip than we've been playing the second half. Fangraphs has us right at that - 84 wins projected. A lot has to go right with our pitching - and a lot has to go wrong for Minn and/or KC and/or Cle - and each of those teams are now near 90% probability. This season was a major surprise in a good way. Duran proved he belongs. We found something in Houck and maybe Crawford, at least for 1 half for Crawford. Casas proved he was worthy of top prospect status. Ceddanne Rafaela os a wizard with the glove. I thought this team was much worse than last year and instead they proved to be better thanks to the progress of the youth. Even Abreu was a nice revelation. I'm still upset it was 3 years in a row of getting close to the Wild Card, but doing very little to improve and opting not to sell and then completely falling apart in the 2nd half. Still, the season gives a ton of hope for 2025. The Red Sox need Henry to help them and spend. There's no reason Burnes shouldn't be on this roster. I'd love Soto on a 13/500 deal. I doubt the Red Sox will put a bid on him though. It would make sense to sign him and then flip Roman Anthony for a top pitching prospect. Which hurts to say because I'm excited for the kid.
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Post by Don Caballero on Aug 25, 2024 0:11:25 GMT -5
Rafaela: down 3 runs with 2 outs in the 9th, he dodges two potential HBPs, swings at two more balls, and ultimately flies out lazily to right. Such a huge proportion of the things he does are either thrilling or exasperating. Real talk here, I’ll never hate a player for “dodging” a HBP. There’s no glory in pain.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 25, 2024 7:51:00 GMT -5
Reality check time. The Sox are 67-61 - only 6 games over .500. We hit the season high points on July 14 - 11 games over and the last game before the AS break. Sox were 53-42. After the break, the record is 14-19. Home record is 5-9. Remainder of the season is 18 home games and 16 road games. If we go .500, that would put us at 84 wins. That would be a better clip than we've been playing the second half. Fangraphs has us right at that - 84 wins projected. A lot has to go right with our pitching - and a lot has to go wrong for Minn and/or KC and/or Cle - and each of those teams are now near 90% probability. This season was a major surprise in a good way. Duran proved he belongs. We found something in Houck and maybe Crawford, at least for 1 half for Crawford. Casas proved he was worthy of top prospect status. Ceddanne Rafaela os a wizard with the glove. I thought this team was much worse than last year and instead they proved to be better thanks to the progress of the youth. Even Abreu was a nice revelation. I'm still upset it was 3 years in a row of getting close to the Wild Card, but doing very little to improve and opting not to sell and then completely falling apart in the 2nd half. Still, the season gives a ton of hope for 2025. The Red Sox need Henry to help them and spend. There's no reason Burnes shouldn't be on this roster. I'd love Soto on a 13/500 deal. I doubt the Red Sox will put a bid on him though. It would make sense to sign him and then flip Roman Anthony for a top pitching prospect. Which hurts to say because I'm excited for the kid. Given what the Sox are trying to do I feel that there is no chance any of the top 5 prospects go anywhere. But they need to spend and it would make sense if Burnes was a guy who they spent on. There’s been a few positive developments this year specifically with Houck and Duran that we should be excited about. But without spending in the right places, this is probably what we should expect from the Red Sox for the next few years, competing for the final wild card spot.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,597
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Post by asm18 on Aug 25, 2024 8:57:51 GMT -5
Duran CF, Abreu RF, Casas 1B, Devers 3B, O’Neil LF, Yoshida DH, Wong C, Hamilton 2B, Rafaela SS
Tyler O’Neill last homered July 27th, when he did so twice against the Yankees. He has 22 bombs in 84 games
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Post by cba82 on Aug 25, 2024 9:05:17 GMT -5
Would prefer to see Jansen behind the plate; it’s gotten pretty ugly with Wong back there.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Aug 25, 2024 9:51:36 GMT -5
So when does the stretch with easy games for the Sox and tough games for the Royals start ?
I never understood why people were talking about how this stretch starting with the Diamondbacks, who are seven games better than the Red Sox, would be easy.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 25, 2024 10:14:05 GMT -5
It will take 23-11 to reach 90 wins. Winning 2/3 of the remaining games. That is a tall order. It really is going to take a massive, Seattle like, collapse from one of the Central Division top 3 for this to be a playoff season. Somehow, every playoff team in the AL except KC is playing kind of poorly right now, so there's still a chance. KC and Cleveland play 7 against each other in the next two weeks. A 5-2 or 6-1 outcome from those games (and I'm not sure it matters which team it is) gives the Sox an opportunity. I'm sure there are other scenarios that help the team too. Sox next 8 are against Toronto and Detroit, so a 6-2 run should be on the table. There's no formula where they coast in, but if they play like a playoff team they should still make it. At this point I'd say "could make it", not "should make it". Its not exceedingly likely that one of the teams ahead of them won't still finish ahead of them even if the Sox play like a playoff team. Could it happen? Yes. Should it happen? Not necessarily.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 25, 2024 11:14:13 GMT -5
Somehow, every playoff team in the AL except KC is playing kind of poorly right now, so there's still a chance. KC and Cleveland play 7 against each other in the next two weeks. A 5-2 or 6-1 outcome from those games (and I'm not sure it matters which team it is) gives the Sox an opportunity. I'm sure there are other scenarios that help the team too. Sox next 8 are against Toronto and Detroit, so a 6-2 run should be on the table. There's no formula where they coast in, but if they play like a playoff team they should still make it. At this point I'd say "could make it", not "should make it". Its not exceedingly likely that one of the teams ahead of them won't still finish ahead of them even if the Sox play like a playoff team. Could it happen? Yes. Should it happen? Not necessarily. Yeah I'd say the formula is "Red Sox play like a playoff team and one of KC/MIN/CLE do not play like a playoff team (or one of BAL/NYY totally collapses)."
All those teams have weaknesses: Minnesota's got injuries, KC's below .500 against non-White Sox teams since the start of June, Cleveland has a meh offense and a lousy rotation and they're 7-13 in their last 20. Probably one of them will kind of stink the rest of the way. But the Red Sox still have to be quite good to catch a team that stinks given the hole they're in.
...This could actually turn into a very boring September in MLB. Per fangraphs, the only team sthat have between a 20% and 80% chance of making the playoffs are the Mets (22%) and Red Sox (28%). If those two teams fade then we basically know who the 12 playoff teams are gonna be.
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Post by entrylevelhitman on Aug 25, 2024 12:02:26 GMT -5
Watching Adam Pellerin try and explain the Danny Jansen thing to Papelbon in the pregame show was outstanding. It just kept going. Papelbon understood 0% of it.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 25, 2024 12:12:33 GMT -5
Top baserunners in MLB by BsR:
Jarren Duran 9.8 Corbin Carroll 8.0 Elly De La Cruz 7.4 Maikel Garcia 7.3 Shohei Ohtani 5.5 Jose Ramirez 5.0
Duran is more than 20% higher than #2 and more than twice as high as #7.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 25, 2024 12:32:23 GMT -5
Youk shared a stat that I had a feeling about - they lead the ML in Ks with risp. Not at all a recipe for success.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 25, 2024 12:40:15 GMT -5
Main games of interest start at 2:10.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 25, 2024 12:42:09 GMT -5
Youk shared a stat that I had a feeling about - they lead the ML in Ks with risp. Not at all a recipe for success. I'd like to see it broken out specifically by Ks with a runner on 3rd and 1 out - you know, the one situation where you specifically want to avoid Ks at all costs. Feel like it has to be around 70%.
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Post by kingstephanos on Aug 25, 2024 12:43:37 GMT -5
Youk shared a stat that I had a feeling about - they lead the ML in Ks with risp. Not at all a recipe for success. It reflects a discussion from the Kansas City broadcast where they mention the lineup's change in approach with 2 strikes - shortening their swings, extra effort to put 'bat on ball' etc. And their star Witt is the poster child for this mindset - which then trickles down to the remaining position players. Coaching does have an effect on on-field results 🤷🏾♂️
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