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8/23-8/25 Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks Series Thread
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Post by vermontsox1 on Aug 22, 2024 12:53:50 GMT -5
8/23 Red Sox (RHP Brayan Bello, 11-5, 4.80, 123.2 IP, 120K:47BB) vs. Diamondbacks (RHP Ryne Nelson, 8-6, 4.35, 124.0 IP, 101K:29BB) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 8/24 Red Sox (RHP Kutter Crawford, 8-10, 4.25, 142.0 IP, 133K:36BB) vs. Diamondbacks (RHP Zac Gallen, 9-6, 3.85, 110.0 IP, 102K:37BB) 4:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 8/25 Red Sox (RHP Tanner Houck, 8-8, 3.01, 152.2 IP, 135K:40BB) vs. Diamondbacks (RHP Merrill Kelly, 3-0, 3.63, 34.2 IP, 27K:10BB) 1:35 pm ET, NESN/WEEI MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2024: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 22, 2024 14:00:08 GMT -5
Three righties
Edit: Each of these guys has an xERA in the low 4s. Not bad, but there is damage to be done!
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Aug 22, 2024 14:00:57 GMT -5
The Royals are finally done with the cupcakes (12-1 vs the White Sox) for a few weeks, and play some playoff bound opponents the next three weeks. The next 20 games will be huge for the Royals! The Red Sox need to make up ground, if they are going to make a playoff run.
KC vs the next 3 weeks, and I predicted they have a sub .500 record against their composition.
3 vs PHI 4 vs CLE 4 vs Hou 3 vs CLE 3 vs MIN 3 vs NYY
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Post by wanderingdude on Aug 22, 2024 14:19:43 GMT -5
I know we struggle with Lefties but it would have been nice to catch Monty and his 5.33 expected era this weekend.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 22, 2024 15:02:53 GMT -5
Missing Marte and Walker is fortunate enough. Pitch around Joc and make the other guys beat you.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 22, 2024 15:11:19 GMT -5
Math quiz: identify the trend in Corbin Carroll's wRC+ by month.
April: 58 May: 69 June: 108 July: 122 August: 156
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Post by incandenza on Aug 22, 2024 15:16:41 GMT -5
Missing Marte and Walker is fortunate enough. Pitch around Joc and make the other guys beat you. Despite having made it to the World Series last season, I think the Diamondbacks still have to be the most obscure team in MLB. Ketel Marte has a 27 WAR career through age 30 and I never think about him. And I had no clue Joc Pederson a) was on the Diamondbacks, and b) is one of the top 10 hitters in baseball this season. (He even has a 153 wRC+ against lefties.)
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 22, 2024 15:41:58 GMT -5
Some selected tweets
June 14th was Verdugo's first game back at Fenway where he had three hits and a home run
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Post by seamus on Aug 22, 2024 15:46:08 GMT -5
I am greedy and want a sweep something fierce. Hopefully the day off can help the boys reset physically without losing the mental focus they've had the last couple of days.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 22, 2024 15:50:11 GMT -5
If the Yankees win they have their version of 2004 Ramiro Mendoza.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 22, 2024 17:46:35 GMT -5
Some selected tweets June 14th was Verdugo's first game back at Fenway where he had three hits and a home run I guess that was his WS
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 22, 2024 17:47:11 GMT -5
Just survive this series and the schedule allows us to breathe a lot more down the stretch from here. They’ve almost navigated the choppy waters
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Post by strike23 on Aug 22, 2024 18:08:29 GMT -5
Glad we're on to a new game thread and the general attitude seems better after pulling out the Houston wins. Sox have only lost 1 of their last 6 series despite the pitching scuffling. If they get it turned around we should be able to sneak in and if they're hot this team has the ability to make some noise in the playoffs.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 22, 2024 19:52:39 GMT -5
If we assume that Seattle or Tampa doesn't make some '07 Rockies esque run, the way I'm now thinking about the playoff picture is the following: If the Sox pass one of the following teams, they're in: NYY - 7 GB, 6 in the loss column (TBD)
CLE - 5.5 GB, 5 in the loss column (tiebreak CLE) BAL - 5.5 GB, 4 in the loss column (tiebreak BAL) KC - 3.5 GB, 3 in the loss column (tiebreak BOS) MIN - 3.5 GB, 3 in the loss column (TBD) Houston is the only playoff team that it doesn't matter if Boston passes, both for seeding and for making the playoffs in the first place, and they have 11 games remaining with the teams above (4 @ BAL, 4 vs KC, 3 @ CLE). So, even though I hate them, I will be banging my trashcan drum for the Astros against these teams the rest of the way. Given that there are five teams that the Sox could pass for a playoff spot, odds are pretty good that one of them will have a relatively poor last six weeks. This is especially true since 3 of the 5 teams (all of the ALC ones) have harder remaining schedules than the Sox, with KC's being quite a bit harder. So, the Sox just need to play good baseball down the stretch and the odds are in their favor. The Sox have 10 games left against these teams (4 @ NYY, 3 vs BAL, 3 vs MIN) in a 13 game span from 9/9 to 9/22. Those games could be huge for keeping paths to a playoff spot open, or putting those teams out of reach for good. I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox have their fate in their hands going into at least one of those series (i.e. a win/sweep would put them in WC position). A series win against AZ would put the Sox in a great position and give them some helium going into an easier part of the schedule that they need to rack up wins during. Let's get it. Edit: The Sox current playoff odds on Fangraphs are 41% with a projected .524 winning percentage (a bit worse than 19-17) the rest of the way. Even at 20-16, so 87 wins total, odds should be better than a coin toss.
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Post by foreverred9 on Aug 22, 2024 21:29:47 GMT -5
Going back to my post from a few weeks ago: forum.soxprospects.com/post/717655/thread88 wins is what I'm thinking gets them into the playoffs. I said then that all they need to do is keep winning 6 out of 10. How are they doing since? 8-8. Not great, but not a disaster. They just need to go 21-15 to close the season.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 23, 2024 7:45:04 GMT -5
Going back to my post from a few weeks ago: forum.soxprospects.com/post/717655/thread88 wins is what I'm thinking gets them into the playoffs. I said then that all they need to do is keep winning 6 out of 10. How are they doing since? 8-8. Not great, but not a disaster. They just need to go 21-15 to close the season. I'll take 8-8 given that 13/16 games were against Houston, Baltimore, or Kansas City and 10/16 were on the road (which should make things harder, poor record thus far at Fenway nonwithstanding). Could have been better without the squanders, but still not bad.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 23, 2024 8:19:43 GMT -5
Going back to my post from a few weeks ago: forum.soxprospects.com/post/717655/thread88 wins is what I'm thinking gets them into the playoffs. I said then that all they need to do is keep winning 6 out of 10. How are they doing since? 8-8. Not great, but not a disaster. They just need to go 21-15 to close the season. Here is my question to the universe? If they win 88 but it’s not enough to make the playoffs, do people consider it a successful season? I would, as they would have exceeded preseason expectations and established a clear and defined core for the next few years. But I can see how people would look at the shortcomings of the bullpen and say it could or should have been better.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 23, 2024 8:26:10 GMT -5
Going back to my post from a few weeks ago: forum.soxprospects.com/post/717655/thread88 wins is what I'm thinking gets them into the playoffs. I said then that all they need to do is keep winning 6 out of 10. How are they doing since? 8-8. Not great, but not a disaster. They just need to go 21-15 to close the season. Here is my question to the universe? If they win 88 but it’s not enough to make the playoffs, do people consider it a successful season?I would, as they would have exceeded preseason expectations and established a clear and defined core for the next few years. But I can see how people would look at the shortcomings of the bullpen and say it could or should have been better. I probably would consider if a mostly successful season yet a disappointment at the same time knowing how many losses they choked up in July/August if that makes much sense. There has been a lot of positive development with many of the young guys and it seems like they have cemented the makings of a nice core of players so from that angle it already kind of has been a successful season.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Aug 23, 2024 8:43:16 GMT -5
Here is my question to the universe? If they win 88 but it’s not enough to make the playoffs, do people consider it a successful season? I would, as they would have exceeded preseason expectations and established a clear and defined core for the next few years. But I can see how people would look at the shortcomings of the bullpen and say it could or should have been better. From a personal enjoyment/entertainment perspective, if they're "in it" through the end of the year that be great, especially after the ambiguous offseason and a year that looked like it was going to go off the rails in April with all the injuries. From a baseball perspective, I define making the playoffs as the bare minimum goal, so yes it is a "failure" if they don't make it. But if they miss the playoffs by a couple games I'm not going to sit here and be like "SEE THEY SHOULD HAVE SOLD AT THE DEADLINE!!!!" Like it's silly to me to think that because they might not accomplish the goal of making the playoffs and winning the World Series that you shouldn't have tried if it turns out it didn't work
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Post by awalkinthepark on Aug 23, 2024 9:03:11 GMT -5
Going back to my post from a few weeks ago: forum.soxprospects.com/post/717655/thread88 wins is what I'm thinking gets them into the playoffs. I said then that all they need to do is keep winning 6 out of 10. How are they doing since? 8-8. Not great, but not a disaster. They just need to go 21-15 to close the season. Here is my question to the universe? If they win 88 but it’s not enough to make the playoffs, do people consider it a successful season? I would, as they would have exceeded preseason expectations and established a clear and defined core for the next few years. But I can see how people would look at the shortcomings of the bullpen and say it could or should have been better. If they win 88 games and miss the playoffs it would reinforce my preseason notion that the 2024 team was worth investing in, and would make the lackluster offseason they had even more disappointing.
Edit: There was a lot of talk about selling future wins for present wins in the offseason, and the general sentiment was that the 2024 team was not worth that. I think if they win 88 games you have to think it was worth it to trade some future wins for present wins.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 23, 2024 9:11:07 GMT -5
Going back to my post from a few weeks ago: forum.soxprospects.com/post/717655/thread88 wins is what I'm thinking gets them into the playoffs. I said then that all they need to do is keep winning 6 out of 10. How are they doing since? 8-8. Not great, but not a disaster. They just need to go 21-15 to close the season. Here is my question to the universe? If they win 88 but it’s not enough to make the playoffs, do people consider it a successful season? I would, as they would have exceeded preseason expectations and established a clear and defined core for the next few years. But I can see how people would look at the shortcomings of the bullpen and say it could or should have been better. I would consider it an enjoyable season - an interesting season - one of promise for the future. I would also consider it a frustrating season because a bit of a different approach at the trading deadline would have probably put them across the line into the playoffs. But just seeing Rafaela, Abreu, the resurgence of Masa, Houck, Hamilton, Duran, Raffy, the return of Casas made it worthwhile and very different from the past few disappointing teams.
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Post by patford on Aug 23, 2024 10:14:11 GMT -5
Here is my question to the universe? If they win 88 but it’s not enough to make the playoffs, do people consider it a successful season? I would, as they would have exceeded preseason expectations and established a clear and defined core for the next few years. But I can see how people would look at the shortcomings of the bullpen and say it could or should have been better. I would consider it an enjoyable season - an interesting season - one of promise for the future. I would also consider it a frustrating season because a bit of a different approach at the trading deadline would have probably put them across the line into the playoffs. But just seeing Rafaela, Abreu, the resurgence of Masa, Houck, Hamilton, Duran, Raffy, the return of Casas made it worthwhile and very different from the past few disappointing teams. It's been a successful season which could have been better if they hadn't traded Portes.
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 23, 2024 11:18:00 GMT -5
What a schedule . The Sox never were out of place with any team. Even when we went to LA. They got swept but come on. This team can hang with anybody . It seemed Baltimore had our number and Astros too but I feel much more better now.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Aug 23, 2024 11:28:57 GMT -5
What a schedule . The Sox never were out of place with any team. Even when we went to LA. They got swept but come on. This team can hang with anybody . It seemed Baltimore had our number and Astros too but I feel much more better now. To me, the most impressive part of the bolded section is that the best Red Sox team has likely yet to take the field in 2024. Add a couple more leverage arms (Slaten/Hendriks), the return of Trevor Story, and an outside chance of a youthful shot in the arm in some form, and they are even more formidable. Their biggest competition is the calendar. If they get it done, they could make some serious noise in the postseason.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Aug 23, 2024 11:37:43 GMT -5
Just survive this series and the schedule allows us to breathe a lot more down the stretch from here. They’ve almost navigated the choppy waters No! There is NO "just survive" facing 3 RH pitchers against a National League team, the offense should carry the weekend and start a nice long extended win streak (knock on wood, fingers crossed, reverse reverse jinx magic 8 ball ju-ju, Im sacrificing a whole chicken on the grill to the baseball gods) Let it be as I said
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