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8/26-8/29 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by vermontsox1 on Aug 26, 2024 9:12:47 GMT -5
8/26 Red Sox (TBD) vs. Blue Jays (TBD) 2:05 pm ET, NESN/WEEI (Game 1 – resumption of June 26 suspended game) 8/26 Red Sox (RHP Nick Pivetta, 5-8, 4.70, 105.1 IP, 125K:27BB) vs. Blue Jays (RHP Jose Berrios, 12-9, 3.79, 156.2 IP, 123K:46BB) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI (Game 2) 8/27 Red Sox (RHP Cooper Criswell, 5-4, 4.41, 79.2 IP, 61K:22BB) vs. Blue Jays (RHP Yariel Rodriguez, 1-5, 4.40, 59.1 IP, 63K:29BB) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 8/28 Red Sox (RHP Brayan Bello, 11-6, 4.95, 129.0 IP, 122K:51BB) vs. Blue Jays (RHP Chris Bassitt, 9-12, 4.41, 145.0 IP, 140K:56BB) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 8/29 Red Sox (TBD) vs. Blue Jays (RHP Bowden Francis, 7-3, 4.02, 71.2 IP, 70K:19BB) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2024: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Aug 26, 2024 9:30:42 GMT -5
For the suspended game where you have dudes who are no longer on either team, do you effectively just pinch hit/sub out once the game re-starts?
Back on 6/26 they had a lineup of:
Duran CF Hamilton SS -> 2B? Abreu RF Devers 3B Refsnyder LF Yoshida DH (Valdez 2B) -> Casas 1B? (Dom Smith 1B) -> Jansen C? (McGuire C) -> Rafaela SS?
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Post by rhswanzey on Aug 26, 2024 9:50:16 GMT -5
Copied from AZ thread
I agree with you, but I don’t think the organization has been that phased by reckless bullpen workload expectations during 2023-2024. What they will do is pitch two thirds of the relievers back-to-back to open this stretch, and then act befuddled as to why the pen is so short by the weekend. The Paxton injury game wouldn’t have been as difficult to navigate if they had simply had a starting pitcher on the roster to pitch the previous game, instead of burning both of their long men for multiple days. This stuff can work once in a while when everything goes to plan, but it doesn’t always go to plan, and it’s reckless going to that well so often over the course of a season. I hope that in 2025, the organization decides to return to the days of rostering an entire rotation of starting pitchers.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Aug 26, 2024 10:02:52 GMT -5
Copied from AZ thread I agree with you, but I don’t think the organization has been that phased by reckless bullpen workload expectations during 2023-2024. What they will do is pitch two thirds of the relievers back-to-back to open this stretch, and then act befuddled as to why the pen is so short by the weekend. The Paxton injury game wouldn’t have been as difficult to navigate if they had simply had a starting pitcher on the roster to pitch the previous game, instead of burning both of their long men for multiple days. This stuff can work once in a while when everything goes to plan, but it doesn’t always go to plan, and it’s reckless going to that well so often over the course of a season. I hope that in 2025, the organization decides to return to the days of rostering an entire rotation of starting pitchers. I know their alternative is they could shuffle a couple bullpen arms over the next day and a half (including bringing Slaten back), but it seems way easier and practical just to call up Dick Fitts/Quinn Priester/Rich Hill for literally an hour and a half EDIT: *or Brad Keller. He just got called up for a DFA'd Joely. Guess he'll be the bulk guy today. Hooray...
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Post by seamus on Aug 26, 2024 10:37:10 GMT -5
For the suspended game where you have dudes who are no longer on either team, do you effectively just pinch hit/sub out once the game re-starts? Back on 6/26 they had a lineup of: Duran CF Hamilton SS -> 2B? Abreu RF Devers 3B Refsnyder LF Yoshida DH (Valdez 2B) -> Casas 1B? (Dom Smith 1B) -> Jansen C? (McGuire C) -> Rafaela SS? Yep, you substitute as though the new guys were on the roster the whole time and have to do something to replace the people who were in the game but are no longer on the roster. The Blue Jays will pinch-hit for Jansen, for example.
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Post by entrylevelhitman on Aug 26, 2024 11:12:48 GMT -5
Copied from AZ thread I agree with you, but I don’t think the organization has been that phased by reckless bullpen workload expectations during 2023-2024. What they will do is pitch two thirds of the relievers back-to-back to open this stretch, and then act befuddled as to why the pen is so short by the weekend. The Paxton injury game wouldn’t have been as difficult to navigate if they had simply had a starting pitcher on the roster to pitch the previous game, instead of burning both of their long men for multiple days. This stuff can work once in a while when everything goes to plan, but it doesn’t always go to plan, and it’s reckless going to that well so often over the course of a season. I hope that in 2025, the organization decides to return to the days of rostering an entire rotation of starting pitchers. I know their alternative is they could shuffle a couple bullpen arms over the next day and a half (including bringing Slaten back), but it seems way easier and practical just to call up Dick Fitts/Quinn Priester/Rich Hill for literally an hour and a half EDIT: *or Brad Keller. He just got called up for a DFA'd Joely. Guess he'll be the bulk guy today. Hooray...Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but there's still the 27th man, right? Even though it's a suspended game first and a regularly-scheduled game next, I think the Sox can still call up the extra guy, it's just that he'd only be eligible to play the second game and not the first. So I'm assuming there'll be a roster addition between games that will likely be a pitcher. I'm too lazy to go through the WooSox boxscores to see who hasn't pitched in a while and would be a relatively rested arm.
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Aug 26, 2024 11:13:11 GMT -5
This series is do-or-die, I think.
This is not predictive, per se, but just meant to give us some perspective on the hill the Sox have to climb:
Let's put aside the recent bad play and look at the big picture. The Sox are playing .519 ball and are 4.5 back from WC #3. 129 games played, with 33 games left, including both of today's. Meanwhile, the Twins and Royals have both played .555 ball, also with 32 games left.
If both the Twins and Royals continue at their (seasonal) pace, they'll add 16 or 17 wins to finish at 88 or 89 wins. (But they could play better than that - they've been better than that since the ASB.)
To reach 88 or 89 wins, the Sox would have to add 21 or 22 wins out of their 33 games remaining. That's a .636 WP. Or to put it another way, win half the remaining games for 16 wins, then harvest 5 extra wins out of the 16 or so remaining games. You know - the games started by the back half of the rotation.
At this point I think the Sox have no margin for error, AND they have to hope for one of the Twins or Royals to implode. I'm not sure what the likelihood of either is. The Twins have more depth and have been chugging along at a plus .500 rate without a lot of highs or lows (even after loosing Correa). KC has Mini-Witt and a great stable of SP, but a weak pen and little depth. They've had one losing month but have been on fire recently.
Theoretically the Sox could find their way into the post-season. Casas and Yoshida hitting makes their lineup very dangerous. The starters seem to be adjusting. It's really going to come down to whether Cora can use the bullpen effectively. Cora's "lets use everyone and steal outs" approach isn't going to work when half of the guys are absolute roulette wheels - there's just that many more chances for someone to have a bad night. Slaten and Hendricks might make a real difference there.
But if they blow both games today. . .the math gets far far uglier.
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Post by dirtdog on Aug 26, 2024 11:20:12 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Aug 26, 2024 11:29:35 GMT -5
This series is do-or-die, I think. This is not predictive, per se, but just meant to give us some perspective on the hill the Sox have to climb: Let's put aside the recent bad play and look at the big picture. The Sox are playing .519 ball and are 4.5 back from WC #3. 129 games played, with 33 games left, including both of today's. Meanwhile, the Twins and Royals have both played .555 ball, also with 32 games left. If both the Twins and Royals continue at their (seasonal) pace, they'll add 16 or 17 wins to finish at 88 or 89 wins. (But they could play better than that - they've been better than that since the ASB.)To reach 88 or 89 wins, the Sox would have to add 21 or 22 wins out of their 33 games remaining. That's a .636 WP. Or to put it another way, win half the remaining games for 16 wins, then harvest 5 extra wins out of the 16 or so remaining games. You know - the games started by the back half of the rotation. At this point I think the Sox have no margin for error, AND they have to hope for one of the Twins or Royals to implode. I'm not sure what the likelihood of either is. The Twins have more depth and have been chugging along at a plus .500 rate without a lot of highs or lows (even after loosing Correa). KC has Mini-Witt and a great stable of SP, but a weak pen and little depth. They've had one losing month but have been on fire recently. Theoretically the Sox could find their way into the post-season. Casas and Yoshida hitting makes their lineup very dangerous. The starters seem to be adjusting. It's really going to come down to whether Cora can use the bullpen effectively. Cora's "lets use everyone and steal outs" approach isn't going to work when half of the guys are absolute roulette wheels - there's just that many more chances for someone to have a bad night. Slaten and Hendricks might make a real difference there. But if they blow both games today. . .the math gets far far uglier. I don't think it's quite this bleak, since the Red Sox only need to finish ahead of one of KC or MIN.
Fangraphs projects the Twins to go 17-15 and the Royals to go 16-16 the rest of the way. Statistically, it's probable that one of them underperforms, so let's say one of them goes 15-17. Then the Red Sox would have to go 20-13. It wouldn't be unprecedented, as they played slightly better than that pace from May 19th through the all-star break (31-19), almost a third of a season. Basically they need to play like that from here on out and they'll probably make the playoffs.
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Post by bosox904 on Aug 26, 2024 12:00:40 GMT -5
Pivetta scratched for today? Was being a degenerate and making a parlay on the game and Pivettas bets all got locked and now they're not even there.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Aug 26, 2024 12:04:26 GMT -5
Pivetta scratched for today? Was being a degenerate and making a parlay on the game and Pivettas bets all got locked and now they're not even there. I believe he's pitching the first game, which will technically be a relief appearance because it will be in the 2nd inning? BULLPEN PIVETTA ACTIVATEI guess the hope is you can get 6 innings from Nick (2-7) and then just go Martin/Kenley
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Post by bosox904 on Aug 26, 2024 12:11:23 GMT -5
Pivetta scratched for today? Was being a degenerate and making a parlay on the game and Pivettas bets all got locked and now they're not even there. I believe he's pitching the first game, which will technically be a relief appearance because it will be in the 2nd inning? BULLPEN PIVETTA ACTIVATEI guess the hope is you can get 6 innings from Nick (2-7) and then just go Martin/Kenley Looks to be the case. So I guess they just decided this it seems like. He was listed in this thread for game 2 and fanduel initially did too.
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Aug 26, 2024 13:01:09 GMT -5
This series is do-or-die, I think. This is not predictive, per se, but just meant to give us some perspective on the hill the Sox have to climb: Let's put aside the recent bad play and look at the big picture. The Sox are playing .519 ball and are 4.5 back from WC #3. 129 games played, with 33 games left, including both of today's. Meanwhile, the Twins and Royals have both played .555 ball, also with 32 games left. If both the Twins and Royals continue at their (seasonal) pace, they'll add 16 or 17 wins to finish at 88 or 89 wins. (But they could play better than that - they've been better than that since the ASB.)To reach 88 or 89 wins, the Sox would have to add 21 or 22 wins out of their 33 games remaining. That's a .636 WP. Or to put it another way, win half the remaining games for 16 wins, then harvest 5 extra wins out of the 16 or so remaining games. You know - the games started by the back half of the rotation. At this point I think the Sox have no margin for error, AND they have to hope for one of the Twins or Royals to implode. I'm not sure what the likelihood of either is. The Twins have more depth and have been chugging along at a plus .500 rate without a lot of highs or lows (even after loosing Correa). KC has Mini-Witt and a great stable of SP, but a weak pen and little depth. They've had one losing month but have been on fire recently. Theoretically the Sox could find their way into the post-season. Casas and Yoshida hitting makes their lineup very dangerous. The starters seem to be adjusting. It's really going to come down to whether Cora can use the bullpen effectively. Cora's "lets use everyone and steal outs" approach isn't going to work when half of the guys are absolute roulette wheels - there's just that many more chances for someone to have a bad night. Slaten and Hendricks might make a real difference there. But if they blow both games today. . .the math gets far far uglier. I don't think it's quite this bleak, since the Red Sox only need to finish ahead of one of KC or MIN.
Fangraphs projects the Twins to go 17-15 and the Royals to go 16-16 the rest of the way. Statistically, it's probable that one of them underperforms, so let's say one of them goes 15-17. Then the Red Sox would have to go 20-13. It wouldn't be unprecedented, as they played slightly better than that pace from May 19th through the all-star break (31-19), almost a third of a season. Basically they need to play like that from here on out and they'll probably make the playoffs.
Sure - there's all kinds of ways to look at it: strength of schedule, reasonable roster projections, etc. They also have 3 games against MN, so they might have a chance to swing the games behind there with a sweep. Is this a 20-13 team though, as presently staffed? I don't think we can easily use the pre-ASB roster's WP to project the current one. If we assumed the players would be preforming mostly equally going forward, we have two major upgrades in Casas and Yoshida. (Hon. Ment: Jansen over McGuire). So that's good. The downgrade is most noticeable in the pitching staff - either injury or ineffectiveness. Houck, Pivetta, and the mystery #5 haven't had a great August. In the pen: Sims, Garcia, Kelly, Slaten, Booser. The fact we're now using Joely is telling - given that Horn was seen as a better option. So were in a spot where the existing pitchers have to figure things out, and some of the "maybe" improvements in Hill, Slaten, and Hendricks have to pan out. If so, then I think they're closer to their pre-ASB form, better if everything works out great and we catch lighting in a bottle. But if it's a mixed bag, I think they're closer to the post-ASB club. And I don't think that club goes 20-13. As much as I would like them to. PS - if they drop 3 of 4 to the Jays and then have to go 19-10 the rest of the way, while figuring things out as they go. . .I just don't see it. Hence, "do or die"
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Post by incandenza on Aug 26, 2024 13:05:53 GMT -5
Oh Schneider sucks now. That's good to see.
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Aug 26, 2024 13:19:44 GMT -5
Oh Schneider sucks now. That's good to see. Augustitis. Perhaps chronic.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 26, 2024 13:40:40 GMT -5
Oh Schneider sucks now. That's good to see. Augustitis. Perhaps chronic. He had a 1.400 OPS last August!
...Boy, this is some extraordinarily boring baseball.
ADD: Though neither team has a hit, which I guess becomes interesting in a couple of innings. I'm guessing a double no-hitter in a suspended game is not something that has happened before.
...And so much for that.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 26, 2024 13:44:42 GMT -5
Another nappy afternoon.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 26, 2024 13:51:58 GMT -5
Ok Wilyer
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Post by ixnayexxus on Aug 26, 2024 13:52:03 GMT -5
Another weird tidbit; if Wagner gets a hit in this game, despite having a number of hits at the MLB level already, this would officially be his first major league hit
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Aug 26, 2024 13:59:01 GMT -5
Rafaela takes some insane swings. Wild to watch
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Aug 26, 2024 13:59:15 GMT -5
Before advanced metrics would CR have been a ROY candidate, based on BA/HR/RBI and eyetest defense?
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 26, 2024 14:00:00 GMT -5
Yarbrough missing bats, gonna be a fun afternoon
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 26, 2024 14:00:16 GMT -5
Before advanced metrics would CR have been a ROY candidate, based on BA/HR/RBI and eyetest defense? Oh he’s absolutely a leading contender in 2002
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Post by incandenza on Aug 26, 2024 14:00:18 GMT -5
Rafaela is once again swinging at absolutely everything, and you know what? I don't like it.
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Post by ixnayexxus on Aug 26, 2024 14:02:33 GMT -5
Nice pick
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