asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,597
|
Post by asm18 on Aug 28, 2024 21:22:26 GMT -5
Twins get swept by the Braves at home. We are 3 back of them for the last Wild Card. We finish off with Toronto tomorrow while they have an off day.
|
|
|
Post by soxfaninnj on Aug 28, 2024 21:50:14 GMT -5
Tomorrow - Kutter needs to keep the ball in the park. Cora needs to be aware of when Kutter's tank goes empty. The pen is now rested - use them (the good ones!) Kenley probably unavailable
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 28, 2024 22:02:18 GMT -5
Spitballing - we sit at 69 wins. FIXED - was missing a Tampa series.
tomorrow Toronto - win take 2/3 at Detroit take 2/3 at Mets take 2/3 White Sox take 1/3 vs Balt take 2/4 at MFY take 2/3 Minn take 2/3 at Toronto take 2/3 Tampa take 2/3 AT tampa
That's 87 wins - enough? 2/3 vs Balt and 3/4 MFY - adds 2 - 89 enough? Probably - but that is a lot of won series.
We are going to need some help - and the above will be the best stretch of the second half if we can pull it off.
Doable - but it shows by playoff chance is currently around 25%
|
|
|
Post by notstarboard on Aug 28, 2024 22:09:15 GMT -5
Spitballing - we sit at 69 wins tomorrow Toronto - win take 2/3 at Detroit take 2/3 at Mets take 2/3 White Sox take 1/3 vs Balt take 2/4 at MFY take 2/3 Minn take 2/3 at Toronto take 2/3 Tampa That's 85 wins - enough? 2/3 vs Balt and 3/4 MFY - adds 2 - 87 enough? We are going to need some help - and the above will be the best stretch of the second half if we can pull it off. Doable - but it shows by playoff chance is currently around 25% Easiest path seems to be sweeping Minnesota. The difference between a three game swing w/ tiebreaker (3/3) and a one-game swing w/o tiebreaker (2/3) is huge. It's basically a three-game boost from one extra win. That would give us more flexibility elsewhere, and we need to do our part to keep Minnesota's tailspin going.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Aug 28, 2024 22:31:50 GMT -5
Spitballing - we sit at 69 wins tomorrow Toronto - win take 2/3 at Detroit take 2/3 at Mets take 2/3 White Sox take 1/3 vs Balt take 2/4 at MFY take 2/3 Minn take 2/3 at Toronto take 2/3 Tampa That's 85 wins - enough? 2/3 vs Balt and 3/4 MFY - adds 2 - 87 enough? We are going to need some help - and the above will be the best stretch of the second half if we can pull it off. Doable - but it shows by playoff chance is currently around 25% You're missing the series at Tampa in the above. Right now, before tonight's games, KC and CLE are projected to hit 90 wins and the Twins 88 per fangraphs (91 CLE, 89 KC, 88 MN from PECOTA). They aren't making the playoffs at 85 wins. I think they need 2 sweeps out of the remaining 9 series to get back on that realistic path to 89. Doable? Yes. Realistic? Likely not given their penchant to give away games.
|
|
asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,597
|
Post by asm18 on Aug 28, 2024 22:32:33 GMT -5
Spitballing - we sit at 69 wins tomorrow Toronto - win take 2/3 at Detroit take 2/3 at Mets take 2/3 White Sox take 1/3 vs Balt take 2/4 at MFY take 2/3 Minn take 2/3 at Toronto take 2/3 Tampa That's 85 wins - enough? 2/3 vs Balt and 3/4 MFY - adds 2 - 87 enough? We are going to need some help - and the above will be the best stretch of the second half if we can pull it off. Doable - but it shows by playoff chance is currently around 25% Easiest path seems to be sweeping Minnesota. The difference between a three game swing w/ tiebreaker (3/3) and a one-game swing w/o tiebreaker (2/3) is huge. It's basically a three-game boost from one extra win. That would give us more flexibility elsewhere, and we need to do our part to keep Minnesota's tailspin going. Minnesota also would likely have get the de facto tie-breaker if our season series with them is tied 3-3 (aka we only win 2 out of 3 vs them next month instead of a sweep) because the second criteria used after head to head record is your record within your own division… and they got to play the White Sox 13 times. But that’s something to worry about a few weeks from now
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 28, 2024 22:46:42 GMT -5
Spitballing - we sit at 69 wins tomorrow Toronto - win take 2/3 at Detroit take 2/3 at Mets take 2/3 White Sox take 1/3 vs Balt take 2/4 at MFY take 2/3 Minn take 2/3 at Toronto take 2/3 Tampa That's 85 wins - enough? 2/3 vs Balt and 3/4 MFY - adds 2 - 87 enough? We are going to need some help - and the above will be the best stretch of the second half if we can pull it off. Doable - but it shows by playoff chance is currently around 25% You're missing the series at Tampa in the above. Right now, before tonight's games, KC and CLE are projected to hit 90 wins and the Twins 88 per fangraphs (91 CLE, 89 KC, 88 MN from PECOTA). They aren't making the playoffs at 85 wins. I think they need 2 sweeps out of the remaining 9 series to get back on that realistic path to 89. Doable? Yes. Realistic? Likely not given their penchant to give away games. Thanks...I will edit.
|
|
|
Post by notstarboard on Aug 28, 2024 22:46:46 GMT -5
Easiest path seems to be sweeping Minnesota. The difference between a three game swing w/ tiebreaker (3/3) and a one-game swing w/o tiebreaker (2/3) is huge. It's basically a three-game boost from one extra win. That would give us more flexibility elsewhere, and we need to do our part to keep Minnesota's tailspin going. Minnesota also would likely have get the de facto tie-breaker if our season series with them is tied 3-3 (aka we only win 2 out of 3 vs them next month instead of a sweep) because the second criteria used after head to head record is your record within your own division… and they got to play the White Sox 13 times. But that’s something to worry about a few weeks from now I am still annoyed about that second criterion. Rewarded with a better record by playing in a worse division, then rewarded with a tiebreaker because of their better record against their worse division. And when you only play six games against another borderline playoff team, the most likely outcome is going to be 3-3, meaning that second tiebreaker will matter more often than you'd hope. And not to mention guaranteeing a top three seed for every division winner - Houston is on pace to have the worst record in the playoff field despite having a terrible division, and yet they'll have the 3 seed and will host a playoff series because of it. Injustice upon injustice!
|
|
|
Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Aug 28, 2024 23:09:18 GMT -5
O'Neill in general is a real dilemma. On the one hand, he has like a 180 wRC+ against lefites; how can this team afford to let him go? On the other hand the K rate, unclutchness, and injury history are three moderately large red flags.
I’m usually in the “there’s no such thing as a bad one year deal” camp and a QO seems fine, especially for a guy who can give you 30 bombs. But they also got O’Neill for some relievers who got DFA’d - they may feel like they can find another righty power guy for relatively little instead of giving Tyler 20 million bucks to fit into what’s already a robust outfield group I think the bigger O'Neil issue is health, this year he played more than he has since his big year in 2021, but he still missed a lot of time and with constant starts and stops because he was dinged up kept him from keeping up his hot start or finding a consistent approach. Everytime hed comeback from even minor stuff he'd be a black hole K machine. So it makes it tough, id offer him the justin Turner contract
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Aug 28, 2024 23:26:32 GMT -5
Oh no Will Flemming. You pulled a Don & Jerry
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Aug 29, 2024 7:44:21 GMT -5
Happy thoughts:
- Abreu is on a 4.8 WAR/600 pace.
- The Red Sox have a 119 wRC+ since the all-star break, including Duran's 182, Yoshida's 164, Casas' 158, and O'Neill's 159 despite his post-weird injury slump.
- Bello has a 2.49 ERA abd 3.37 FIP in his last four starts.
- Slaten's back. He may have been a bigger loss to this team than Story or Casas when he was out.
- Garcia is on the IL. But Hendriks won't be for long.
- The Red Sox have 6 of the top 21 rookies by fWAR in the AL
|
|
0ap0
Veteran
Posts: 504
Member is Online
|
Post by 0ap0 on Aug 29, 2024 7:44:35 GMT -5
Minnesota also would likely have get the de facto tie-breaker if our season series with them is tied 3-3 (aka we only win 2 out of 3 vs them next month instead of a sweep) because the second criteria used after head to head record is your record within your own division… and they got to play the White Sox 13 times. But that’s something to worry about a few weeks from now I am still annoyed about that second criterion. Rewarded with a better record by playing in a worse division, then rewarded with a tiebreaker because of their better record against their worse division. And when you only play six games against another borderline playoff team, the most likely outcome is going to be 3-3, meaning that second tiebreaker will matter more often than you'd hope. And not to mention guaranteeing a top three seed for every division winner - Houston is on pace to have the worst record in the playoff field despite having a terrible division, and yet they'll have the 3 seed and will host a playoff series because of it. Injustice upon injustice! Good point. Should have been inter-division record for second TB instead of over-weighting performance against division rivals twice..
|
|
|
Post by sxfan on Aug 29, 2024 7:49:12 GMT -5
The Sox better hope the Orioles and Yankees battle it out until the very last day for the division title, too.
Cuz if not, then the Twins play their last 3 games against the Orioles. It could be a situation where they're either resting everyone or playing until the last out of the season.
Bello needs to pitch like the number one starter from here until the rest of the season. He's the most important guy on the pitching side. Everyone is so up and down and the offense needs to score otherwise.
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 6,478
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Aug 29, 2024 7:52:29 GMT -5
Happy thoughts:
- Abreu is on a 4.8 WAR/600 pace.
- The Red Sox have a 119 wRC+ since the all-star break, including Duran's 182, Yoshida's 164, Casas' 158, and O'Neill's 159 despite his post-weird injury slump.
- Bello has a 2.49 ERA abd 3.37 FIP in his last four starts.
- Slaten's back. He may have been a bigger loss to this team than Story or Casas when he was out.
- Garcia is on the IL. But Hendriks won't be for long.
My first thought was come on now that's crazy but at second thought, one more viable RP from the ASB until now probably gets them at least 1 or 2 extra wins conservatively which would have them one game out of the WC. Could probably make that same argument for Casas missing basically all of May-July but still not as crazy a thought as I had at first glance. Also not to get too sucked in to four starts but we all know Bello has the talent to take the next step. If he can get there and Houck is for real this year, it semi negates the need to spend out their nose for a front of the rotation guy.
|
|
|
Post by threeifbaerga on Aug 29, 2024 8:25:19 GMT -5
Bello has been pretty decent since mid-July, really.
|
|
asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,597
|
Post by asm18 on Aug 29, 2024 8:33:44 GMT -5
Trevor Story says he’s doing a rehab assignment next week
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 29, 2024 8:34:39 GMT -5
Duran now sits just behind Witt Jr for best WAR (8.8 vs 8.4), with Judge leading big.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Aug 29, 2024 9:03:56 GMT -5
Messing with statistics to give myself hope:
There is a 51% chance, based on FG playoff odds, that one of the Red Sox, Mariners, Mets, Tigers or Cubs makes the playoffs (that’s all teams above 3% odds, if we expand to all teams with some chance remaining the odds go up that one of them makes it).
Of those the Red Sox are by far the most likely. 24% chance isn’t terrible, it’s roughly the same chances as David Hamilton getting a hit in any given at bat.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaydouble on Aug 29, 2024 9:23:46 GMT -5
Duran now sits just behind Witt Jr for best WAR (8.8 vs 8.4), with Judge leading big. Not to spoil the hype about what has been a truly great season from Duran, but Fangraphs has him at "only" 6.8 WAR, and it's my understanding that fWAR is pretty much universally considered the better version of the state since they switched to Statcast-based defensive metrics.
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 6,478
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Aug 29, 2024 9:29:28 GMT -5
Duran now sits just behind Witt Jr for best WAR (8.8 vs 8.4), with Judge leading big. Not to spoil the hype about what has been a truly great season from Duran, but Fangraphs has him at "only" 6.8 WAR, and it's my understanding that fWAR is pretty much universally considered the better version of the state since they switched to Statcast-based defensive metrics. True but even using Fangraphs fWAR he ranks 4th behind Judge, Witt and Soto so it's not as if he plummets to merely good. Still has him ranked a top 5 player this season. Guess it kind of shows Fangraphs may be a little more conservative in it's WAR then bRef.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Aug 29, 2024 9:36:52 GMT -5
For position players, averaging B-Ref and Fangraphs is the best bet. For pitchers, you should do the same thing just without the Fangraphs.
|
|
asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,597
|
Post by asm18 on Aug 29, 2024 10:01:17 GMT -5
These are the pitch metrics for our old & washed-up degenerate closer who hates the team and also puppies
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 6,478
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Aug 29, 2024 10:19:33 GMT -5
If Jansen would take it I'd offer him the same exact deal that he signed for last time, this bullpen would somehow unfathomably be much worse than it has been without him back there to shut down the 9th inning.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywaterinla on Aug 29, 2024 10:36:16 GMT -5
Oh no Will Flemming. You pulled a Don & Jerry This “threesome” were absolutely hysterical the whole game last night. Made it very fun.
|
|
|
Post by cba82 on Aug 29, 2024 11:59:48 GMT -5
Can someone please tell me the rhyme and reason of get-away days?
End of a scheduled four-game series (which became five), both teams are heading to the airport, why is today not an afternoon game?
|
|