Predicting The 2025 Opening Day Roster
Sept 19, 2024 2:06:30 GMT -5
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Sept 19, 2024 2:06:30 GMT -5
Last year, for the off-season, I started a thread called “Predicting the 2024 Opening Day Roster”. I wanted it it be a catch-all for trade and free agent discussion where people could play GM for the 2024 team. If the mods are okay with a similar thread, I’d like to propose it again because I had a lot of fun discussing possibilities with people in that thread last year. So here’s my 2025 Opening Day Prediction, with some explanations, as well.
First off, I do not think the Red Sox will go over the luxury tax. There is no reason to think they will after the last two seasons. With that in mind, I have tried to craft a team that will be around 5 million under the tax. Red Sox payroll on SP and Twitter has them at about $177MM, leaving $63MM up to the luxury tax. That’s enough for what the team needs to do.
Rotation:
Burnes/Fried
Gilbert/Kirby
Houck
Giolito
Bello
The rotation has been pretty solid for much of the year in 2024, but it lacks an ace, and needs more depth. A large free agent splash makes sense, with 3 big names at the top of the list this off-season: Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, and Jack Flaherty. Each has their question marks, and I could be convinced to sign any of them. But for a large contract ($30MM a year for 6-7 years), I’d be inclined to go with Burnes or Fried, with an edge towards Burnes. To deepen the rotation even further, the Red Sox should trade for a young starter with control, using their position player depth to facilitate it. Logan Gilbert would be my top choice, but George Kirby, or another Non-Seattle player could work, as well. These two make the most sense to me, as the Mariners are in desperate need of offensive help, and we have that to offer. To acquire one of them, I would part with Jarren Duran, which I think should be a sufficient price to pay, but perhaps there are those who think this is not the case. Gilbert has 3 years of control left, and Kirby 4. I would target Gilbert due to his greater recent success. The rest of the rotation would include a healthy Giolito, Houck, and Bello. This leaves Crawford out of the picture, but there’s always a need for more starting pitchers due to injury and poor performance. Crawford and Criswell should be kept ready to step in during ST, and early in the season, but perhaps both could start at AAA. It may sound weird to send Crawford down, but if the team wishes to seriously compete, it needs to improve the top end pitching, which will push guys down.
Bullpen:
Liam Hendriks
Tanner Scott
Justin Slaten
Luis Guerrero
Zach Penrod
Garrett Whitlock
Lucas Sims
Josh Winckowski/Unnamed Long Man
The bullpen needs helps. I may be a little bullish on some of the young guys, but I think Guerrero and Penrod are going to establish themselves as legitimate options for the team. They have more exciting stuff than a lot of the guy that have pitched here in recent years. Nonetheless, the team needs a big addition, and Tanner Scott is the shutdown lefty we haven’t had in a while. He’ll cost a fair amount coming off a strong season, and normally I’d be opposed to paying big money for relievers, but it’s time to invest in a group that has killed the team the last couple years. Hendriks can tentatively be slated in as the closer, he has the experience and mentality for it, but I wouldn’t be opposed to getting another veteran. Whitlock should return to the pen, because he cannot stay healthy as a starter. Rounding it out, I like Lucas Sims and think he can be signed for cheap and tinkered with to be more effective. I feel most confident in the team signing him, and could see him being one of the first signings they make this off-season. Finally, the Winckowski spot can be filled by anyone that can be trusted to pitch in +/- 5 run games, or potentially Crawford to keep him stretched in case he’s needed to lengthen back out for the rotation. I think this bullpen, while young, could be strong. Especially a top 4 of Hendriks, Scott, Slaten, and Guerrero.
Everyday lineup:
Roman Anthony - LF
Rafael Devers - 3B
Trevor Story - SS
Triston Casas - 1B
Masataka Yoshida - DH
Kristian Campbell - 2B
Wilyer Abreu - RF
Conner Wong - C
Ceddanne Rafaela - CF
This is definitely wishful thinking on my part. Both Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell on the opening day roster may be unlikely, but it would be fun and I’m here to predict fun. Assuming that Jarren Duran is traded in a package for a front line starter, I see this lineup as one that could potentially break camp. First, the outfield. Rafaela is a stud defender in CF, and for his full potential to be reached, he should be playing everyday in CF where his defense masks his (usually) ineffective bat. In right field, Wilyer Abreu has the arm strength and the range to be a very solid to excellent defender out there for several years, even in Fenway’s large RF. Finally, Roman Anthony will be playing in left, where he will have to become acquainted with the Monster in ST, but will be a more than adequate defender with a strong arm, and a small part of the field that will not require him to lay off the weight lifting. Devers is at 3rd, of course. Story will be at short stop, and his double play partner will be Kristian Campbell. The team needs right handed hitters, and there’s really no good options on the market. So, two of the best offensive prospects in baseball, who have both been excellent at every level, including AAA, will make the team out of ST, giving the team a level of excitement we haven’t seen in a while. Triston Casas will be at 1st, rounding out an infield that will be anchored by Story, with potential for solid-ish defense. Wong will take the majority of catching duties early in the season, until Teel is ready to come up.
This is a very left handed lineup, but there’s really not a great way to change that. A lot of the best hitters on the team, and in the minors are lefties. Campbell will hopefully balance it a bit, and Story, as well. The bench will also play a role here. Masataka stays at DH because I believe he can hit, and because the Red Sox won’t be able to move him anyway. I think Anthony will force his way into being the lead off hitter because of his combination of swing decisions, on base ability, and power, which make him the perfect modern day leadoff hitter.
Bench:
Rob Refsnyder
Romy Gonzalez
David Hamilton
Reese McGuire
Rob Refsnyder won’t actually retire, right? He’s going to be very important for the 2025 team as a LF or DH against lefty pitchers. Same for Romy Gonzalez who will make his way into the lineup against tough lefties, giving breaks to guys like Anthony, Abreu, Casas, or Yoshida. David Hamilton is a perfect bench player. He can be a pinch runner, and play several positions (he should get more time in the outfield to increase versatility), and he has a nice left handed swing to take plenty of at bats next year. Finally, Reese McGuire can be the cheap backup catcher until Teel is ready and Reese gets sent back to Worcester.
Notable players left off:
Jarren Duran: Touched on this earlier, but he’s been traded to the Mariners. The offensively lifeless Mariners need a spark, and Duran is the perfect player for them to target. 3 years of team control, and a great season, Duran will be running rampant around T-Mobile Stadium next year. Going by Fangraphs War, Duran has been worth far more than Gilbert or Kirby, and obviously that’s not the only calculation here, but I think a one-for-one swap isn’t out of the question. For Kirby, I think the Mariners would have to add more, in fact.
Tyler O’Neill: I think the team extends the QO and he rejects it. Tyler had a weird season, but I think he rejects the offer because the season was probably better than he could expect to replicate next year. Tyler is younger than Teoscar Hernandez and had a similarly powerful year, I think he could get a better contract than that.
Vaughn Grissom: Maybe there’s a fight over second in ST, but it feels like Grissom’s been eclipsed by Campbell, who simply looks like a much better hitter, and more athletic. Maybe they try Grissom as a utility infielder in the Romy Gonzalez role?
Pivetta: QO’d and rejected: pitching was very expensive on the market last year. Pivetta is insanely durable, and a team will give him a solid 3-4 year contract.
Enmanuel Valdez: We don’t really need more lefties.
Greg Weissert: We’ll see him as soon as there’s a bullpen injury.
Brennan Bernardino: What a great story. Sadly, the numbers haven’t been great in the last half of the season. With Penrod and Scott, we’ve got an explosive left handed bullpen duo.
Money: Starting at the assumed 63MM free space (Red Sox Payroll on Twitter has calculated this based on arbitration figures, and such), there’s a lot of room. Clear about 6MM from trading Duran and his arbitration estimate, and we’re at roughly 70MM. 30MM for Burnes/Fried, 15MM for Scott (4/60, slightly less than Hader got last year), and 8MM for Lucas Sims. Maybe 10MM for Gilbert in his second year of Arb? That gives the team about 63MM, which would leave them under the tax.
Anyway, here’s my wish-cast of an Opening Day 2025 roster for the Red Sox when they open in Texas. Will any of the additions and subtractions be right? Probably not. But if I had any power to construct this team, this is how I’d do it.
Edit: Slight addendum. The team may decide it’s best to keep Roman Anthony down for a little while (to get that extra year of control). If that’s the case, I still think Campbell makes the team because the need at 2B is so obvious, and they’ll piece it together in LF until the day comes that Anthony can be called up and they can keep his extra year. This gives them a chance at the PPI pick with Campbell, and gives another year of control to Anthony. This may be the most likely way they go.
First off, I do not think the Red Sox will go over the luxury tax. There is no reason to think they will after the last two seasons. With that in mind, I have tried to craft a team that will be around 5 million under the tax. Red Sox payroll on SP and Twitter has them at about $177MM, leaving $63MM up to the luxury tax. That’s enough for what the team needs to do.
Rotation:
Burnes/Fried
Gilbert/Kirby
Houck
Giolito
Bello
The rotation has been pretty solid for much of the year in 2024, but it lacks an ace, and needs more depth. A large free agent splash makes sense, with 3 big names at the top of the list this off-season: Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, and Jack Flaherty. Each has their question marks, and I could be convinced to sign any of them. But for a large contract ($30MM a year for 6-7 years), I’d be inclined to go with Burnes or Fried, with an edge towards Burnes. To deepen the rotation even further, the Red Sox should trade for a young starter with control, using their position player depth to facilitate it. Logan Gilbert would be my top choice, but George Kirby, or another Non-Seattle player could work, as well. These two make the most sense to me, as the Mariners are in desperate need of offensive help, and we have that to offer. To acquire one of them, I would part with Jarren Duran, which I think should be a sufficient price to pay, but perhaps there are those who think this is not the case. Gilbert has 3 years of control left, and Kirby 4. I would target Gilbert due to his greater recent success. The rest of the rotation would include a healthy Giolito, Houck, and Bello. This leaves Crawford out of the picture, but there’s always a need for more starting pitchers due to injury and poor performance. Crawford and Criswell should be kept ready to step in during ST, and early in the season, but perhaps both could start at AAA. It may sound weird to send Crawford down, but if the team wishes to seriously compete, it needs to improve the top end pitching, which will push guys down.
Bullpen:
Liam Hendriks
Tanner Scott
Justin Slaten
Luis Guerrero
Zach Penrod
Garrett Whitlock
Lucas Sims
Josh Winckowski/Unnamed Long Man
The bullpen needs helps. I may be a little bullish on some of the young guys, but I think Guerrero and Penrod are going to establish themselves as legitimate options for the team. They have more exciting stuff than a lot of the guy that have pitched here in recent years. Nonetheless, the team needs a big addition, and Tanner Scott is the shutdown lefty we haven’t had in a while. He’ll cost a fair amount coming off a strong season, and normally I’d be opposed to paying big money for relievers, but it’s time to invest in a group that has killed the team the last couple years. Hendriks can tentatively be slated in as the closer, he has the experience and mentality for it, but I wouldn’t be opposed to getting another veteran. Whitlock should return to the pen, because he cannot stay healthy as a starter. Rounding it out, I like Lucas Sims and think he can be signed for cheap and tinkered with to be more effective. I feel most confident in the team signing him, and could see him being one of the first signings they make this off-season. Finally, the Winckowski spot can be filled by anyone that can be trusted to pitch in +/- 5 run games, or potentially Crawford to keep him stretched in case he’s needed to lengthen back out for the rotation. I think this bullpen, while young, could be strong. Especially a top 4 of Hendriks, Scott, Slaten, and Guerrero.
Everyday lineup:
Roman Anthony - LF
Rafael Devers - 3B
Trevor Story - SS
Triston Casas - 1B
Masataka Yoshida - DH
Kristian Campbell - 2B
Wilyer Abreu - RF
Conner Wong - C
Ceddanne Rafaela - CF
This is definitely wishful thinking on my part. Both Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell on the opening day roster may be unlikely, but it would be fun and I’m here to predict fun. Assuming that Jarren Duran is traded in a package for a front line starter, I see this lineup as one that could potentially break camp. First, the outfield. Rafaela is a stud defender in CF, and for his full potential to be reached, he should be playing everyday in CF where his defense masks his (usually) ineffective bat. In right field, Wilyer Abreu has the arm strength and the range to be a very solid to excellent defender out there for several years, even in Fenway’s large RF. Finally, Roman Anthony will be playing in left, where he will have to become acquainted with the Monster in ST, but will be a more than adequate defender with a strong arm, and a small part of the field that will not require him to lay off the weight lifting. Devers is at 3rd, of course. Story will be at short stop, and his double play partner will be Kristian Campbell. The team needs right handed hitters, and there’s really no good options on the market. So, two of the best offensive prospects in baseball, who have both been excellent at every level, including AAA, will make the team out of ST, giving the team a level of excitement we haven’t seen in a while. Triston Casas will be at 1st, rounding out an infield that will be anchored by Story, with potential for solid-ish defense. Wong will take the majority of catching duties early in the season, until Teel is ready to come up.
This is a very left handed lineup, but there’s really not a great way to change that. A lot of the best hitters on the team, and in the minors are lefties. Campbell will hopefully balance it a bit, and Story, as well. The bench will also play a role here. Masataka stays at DH because I believe he can hit, and because the Red Sox won’t be able to move him anyway. I think Anthony will force his way into being the lead off hitter because of his combination of swing decisions, on base ability, and power, which make him the perfect modern day leadoff hitter.
Bench:
Rob Refsnyder
Romy Gonzalez
David Hamilton
Reese McGuire
Rob Refsnyder won’t actually retire, right? He’s going to be very important for the 2025 team as a LF or DH against lefty pitchers. Same for Romy Gonzalez who will make his way into the lineup against tough lefties, giving breaks to guys like Anthony, Abreu, Casas, or Yoshida. David Hamilton is a perfect bench player. He can be a pinch runner, and play several positions (he should get more time in the outfield to increase versatility), and he has a nice left handed swing to take plenty of at bats next year. Finally, Reese McGuire can be the cheap backup catcher until Teel is ready and Reese gets sent back to Worcester.
Notable players left off:
Jarren Duran: Touched on this earlier, but he’s been traded to the Mariners. The offensively lifeless Mariners need a spark, and Duran is the perfect player for them to target. 3 years of team control, and a great season, Duran will be running rampant around T-Mobile Stadium next year. Going by Fangraphs War, Duran has been worth far more than Gilbert or Kirby, and obviously that’s not the only calculation here, but I think a one-for-one swap isn’t out of the question. For Kirby, I think the Mariners would have to add more, in fact.
Tyler O’Neill: I think the team extends the QO and he rejects it. Tyler had a weird season, but I think he rejects the offer because the season was probably better than he could expect to replicate next year. Tyler is younger than Teoscar Hernandez and had a similarly powerful year, I think he could get a better contract than that.
Vaughn Grissom: Maybe there’s a fight over second in ST, but it feels like Grissom’s been eclipsed by Campbell, who simply looks like a much better hitter, and more athletic. Maybe they try Grissom as a utility infielder in the Romy Gonzalez role?
Pivetta: QO’d and rejected: pitching was very expensive on the market last year. Pivetta is insanely durable, and a team will give him a solid 3-4 year contract.
Enmanuel Valdez: We don’t really need more lefties.
Greg Weissert: We’ll see him as soon as there’s a bullpen injury.
Brennan Bernardino: What a great story. Sadly, the numbers haven’t been great in the last half of the season. With Penrod and Scott, we’ve got an explosive left handed bullpen duo.
Money: Starting at the assumed 63MM free space (Red Sox Payroll on Twitter has calculated this based on arbitration figures, and such), there’s a lot of room. Clear about 6MM from trading Duran and his arbitration estimate, and we’re at roughly 70MM. 30MM for Burnes/Fried, 15MM for Scott (4/60, slightly less than Hader got last year), and 8MM for Lucas Sims. Maybe 10MM for Gilbert in his second year of Arb? That gives the team about 63MM, which would leave them under the tax.
Anyway, here’s my wish-cast of an Opening Day 2025 roster for the Red Sox when they open in Texas. Will any of the additions and subtractions be right? Probably not. But if I had any power to construct this team, this is how I’d do it.
Edit: Slight addendum. The team may decide it’s best to keep Roman Anthony down for a little while (to get that extra year of control). If that’s the case, I still think Campbell makes the team because the need at 2B is so obvious, and they’ll piece it together in LF until the day comes that Anthony can be called up and they can keep his extra year. This gives them a chance at the PPI pick with Campbell, and gives another year of control to Anthony. This may be the most likely way they go.
?? Needs a lot of help.