Predicting The 2025 Opening Day Roster

On the outfield front, this approach seems pretty straightforward. We have two centerfielders. Sure, Duran can play LF, and for that matter, I’m sure Rafaela could man either of the corners, as well. But where does value get optimized?

Defensively, Rafaela is the best option for CF. That’s unquestionable; that’s where his value is maximized. Defensive metrics show that Duran, while not quite as strong a defender in CF, but still plus, is also maximized in CF. Duran was a 6-8 WAR player this year, depending on which measure you use (let’s split the difference and say 7). It would be reasonable to assume his value would only have increased if he didn’t spend 40% of his time in LF. If he played LF exclusively, I surmise his WAR would have been lower, let’s say 6. Now I’m not assuming Duran will put up a line like he did this season consistently, but for the sake of argument, let’s say he can be counted on to be a 4-5 WAR player in LF for the next several seasons. But if he was deployed in CF consistently, that would bump him to 5-6. Some have suggested CR would be a 3 WAR player if he played CF exclusively. Let’s assume that’s true. Without gains in offense, however, that may be his ceiling. (Though young, given his approach and how hard-wired he seems, I’m not sure meaningful improvement at the dish can be counted on, and ultimately, that’s the judgment call.)

Then we have Abreu, who’s a solid 3 WAR player as largely a platoon bat with above-average RF defense. One can reason that Abreu hasn’t maxed out, and that a 4 WAR profile is realistic. Paired with a guy like Refsnyder, who’s not nearly as strong in the field, but who added 1.6 WAR this year, you can create a 5-6 WAR RF tandem.

Add that up and we have an OF WAR of 12.5 (Duran in LF 4.5, RF tandem 5, Rafaela in CF 3). But, if we moved Duran to CF (5.5), and replaced Rafaela in OF with O’Neill or someone of his ilk (3), that both maximizes OF value (13.5), while making for a much tougher lineup. Sure there’s a difference in OF defense, but the overall effect would be positive. And the lineup would be scarier, which could have synergistic effects on other batters (sort of a raise-all-boats effect).

The last thing we should do, IMO, is relegate Rafaela to super-utility. His IF defense isn’t very good, and why when we use him as a defensive replacement for Duran in CF—the only position CR should play? If Duran had one year of control left, I’d say keep CR, but with four years before FA, and with Anthony looming on the horizon, I just don’t see a long-term fit for him. If we can find a team that values Ceddanne enough to part with pitching or a solid catcher with some control (I think C may be our biggest area of need, and a huge lever to boost pitching performance), or the right prospects, that’s the play, IMO. Unfortunately, I’m worried the contract extension takes away from his value.

There are a lot of folks on this board who are emotionally connected to Ceddanne, so talk of trading him is an assault on their heartstrings. But objective reasoning, IMO, make this problem a fairly easy one to solve, it just doesn’t serve to fondle our feelings to cast aside someone in whom we’ve invested a lot emotional capital.