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Post by sxfan on Sept 28, 2024 17:58:34 GMT -5
Giants win! Great odds for 9 pick. 50/50 at this point now.
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Post by thelpc on Sept 28, 2024 18:01:48 GMT -5
Do the Sox only need to lose tomorrow to lock up the 9 spot or would the Giants also need to win?
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Post by sxfan on Sept 28, 2024 18:03:34 GMT -5
Do the Sox only need to lose tomorrow to lock up the 9 spot or would the Giants also need to win? Sox loss guarantees the 9 pick. Bad pitching matchup for the Sox tomorrow. I like the Sox chances.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 28, 2024 18:03:58 GMT -5
Do the Sox only need to lose tomorrow to lock up the 9 spot or would the Giants also need to win? Sox, Giants and Tampa are tied at 80 wins and so will pick 9, 12 and 13 in some order. Sox have the tiebreaker over each of them
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Post by finaliz3d on Sept 28, 2024 18:03:58 GMT -5
Do the Sox only need to lose tomorrow to lock up the 9 spot or would the Giants also need to win? If the Red Sox lose tomorrow, they get the 9th spot. If the Red Sox win and the Giants win, the Red Sox get the 12th spot because the Rays would be one game ahead of us. Finally, if the Red Sox win, and the Giants lose, the Red Sox get the 13th spot
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Post by kwodes on Sept 28, 2024 18:06:24 GMT -5
Do we think there's any chance breslow and company wait until after the draft lottery to trade any major prospects? Maybe if they find out they're picking #1 they'd be more willing to include one of the big 4? Knowing they'll be recouping a lot of lost value?
I'd think this wouldn't have any impact on their decision-making process, but just throwing it out there as a possibility.
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Post by ephus on Sept 28, 2024 18:08:37 GMT -5
Do the Sox only need to lose tomorrow to lock up the 9 spot or would the Giants also need to win? Sox loss guarantees the 9 pick. Bad pitching matchup for the Sox tomorrow. I like the Sox chances. Nothing locked in until after the lottery. Even if they finish with the highestly likelihood of picking 9th there is at least a small chance they move up or down based on the results of the lottery.
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Post by finaliz3d on Sept 28, 2024 18:17:18 GMT -5
Do we think there's any chance breslow and company wait until after the draft lottery to trade any major prospects? Maybe if they find out they're picking #1 they'd be more willing to include one of the big 4? Knowing they'll be recouping a lot of lost value? I'd think this wouldn't have any impact on their decision-making process, but just throwing it out there as a possibility. Maybe, idk. I would do it regardless, but, maybe that would make them more willing, idk. Rounding up, we get a 21% chance of moving up into the top 6 at the #9 spot, around 10% chance of getting to the top 6 at 12/13
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Post by sxfan on Sept 28, 2024 18:22:08 GMT -5
Do we think there's any chance breslow and company wait until after the draft lottery to trade any major prospects? Maybe if they find out they're picking #1 they'd be more willing to include one of the big 4? Knowing they'll be recouping a lot of lost value? I'd think this wouldn't have any impact on their decision-making process, but just throwing it out there as a possibility. Maybe, idk. I would do it regardless, but, maybe that would make them more willing, idk. Rounding up, we get a 21% chance of moving up into the top 6 at the #9 spot, around 10% chance of getting to the top 6 at 12/13 I added 23 percent chance at a lottery pick at number 9 pick. 3 (rounded up) percent chance at number 1. 1 percent chance at number 1 pick at number one pick at 12/13 pick. With 10 percent chance at a lottery pick at number 12. 8 percent chance at number 13.
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Post by sxfan on Sept 28, 2024 18:35:12 GMT -5
Tomorrow's line-up-
LF Refsnyder 1B Wong 2B Valdez SS Rafaela DH Mickey Gasper 3B Romy Gonzalez C Danny Jansen RF Tyler O'Neil CF Duran
Preister starting 3 innings with Luis Garcia as the fireman reliever and Chase Shugart to close the game. Let's wrap up this loss nicely.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Sept 28, 2024 18:54:00 GMT -5
Sure it is. I’m guessing that maybe he was chomping at the bit to get out of Boston once it came out that they didn’t want him anymore in the offseason. Probably not a fun place for him to be. At the same time, he signed a contract and it’s a business…so I can see both sides. He’s probably also a little pissed that the Sox didn’t really contend and had little interest in doing so while he was here. Your last sentence is incorrect. They obviously wanted to compete. They just had little interest in trading real prospects who are valuable to the long term future of the team for short term wins and I don't blame them. Sure. But what does that have to do with only signing Giolito and Criswell for the rotation? Not that Vegas is the end all that be all but an over under set of 78 wins doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that this team wanted to contend. The players wanted to. Management/Ownership failed the guys on the field. In his two years here the Sox finished last and 3rd/4th depending on what happens tomorrow.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 28, 2024 19:50:58 GMT -5
Two years in a row now the Sox are under .500 at home. One driver of analysis and offseason moves is assessing why the sudden ineffectiveness in Fenway and trying to do things to rectify that. Fenway is a unique enough park that there may be some clues as to why the current version of the team is having trouble there.
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Post by dirtdog on Sept 28, 2024 20:45:51 GMT -5
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Post by tjb21 on Sept 29, 2024 7:46:57 GMT -5
Excited to watch Quinn pitch today.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,589
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Post by asm18 on Sept 29, 2024 9:17:25 GMT -5
Last Sox game until mid-February 🥲
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 29, 2024 10:09:47 GMT -5
What happens if the Red Sox and Giants tie?
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Post by samb on Sept 29, 2024 10:46:19 GMT -5
What happens if the Red Sox and Giants tie? The Red Sox get the better pick on tiebreakers.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Sept 29, 2024 10:57:28 GMT -5
This is what I care about way more than the difference in players available at those picks. That could more or less be an extra stab at a Roman Anthony type player.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Sept 29, 2024 10:57:42 GMT -5
Well this is it. The end of another frustrating season. Although next season should bring more fun, with the big 4 prospects making their debuts at some point. Better times ahead. I think.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 29, 2024 11:20:35 GMT -5
Pivetta, by the way, joined Bello in getting to exactly 2.0 fWAR. Kutter is sitting at 1.9 going into today. If he gets to 2.0 the Red Sox would join the Royals, Twins, and Mariners as the only AL teams with 4 2-WAR pitchers (Mariners actually have 5). Well this didn't happen.
Whither Kutter, I wonder. His problem is the long ball, but his HR/FB rate isn't even that bad: it was 20th out of 58 qualified this season. The problem is that he has a middling K rate so allows a decent number of balls in play, and he is 2nd in the percentage of those balls in play that are fly balls. Otherwise, though, he doesn't allow a lot of hard contact.
He's very solid as a #4 starter as is, but I wonder if he has another gear he can get to.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 29, 2024 11:41:55 GMT -5
Pivetta, by the way, joined Bello in getting to exactly 2.0 fWAR. Kutter is sitting at 1.9 going into today. If he gets to 2.0 the Red Sox would join the Royals, Twins, and Mariners as the only AL teams with 4 2-WAR pitchers (Mariners actually have 5). Well this didn't happen.
Whither Kutter, I wonder. His problem is the long ball, but his HR/FB rate isn't even that bad: it was 20th out of 58 qualified this season. The problem is that he has a middling K rate so allows a decent number of balls in play, and he is 2nd in the percentage of those balls in play that are fly balls. Otherwise, though, he doesn't allow a lot of hard contact.
He's very solid as a #4 starter as is, but I wonder if he has another gear he can get to.
I do think Kutter has another gear to get to IMO anyway. He went from 120 innings in 2023 to 170 this year so my hope is that he's now ready and able to go as a very good SP. I think he's a #3 personally but we'll see. I very much think that a 1,2,3 of houck bello Crawford is the makings of a decent rotation. Of course you throw someone at the front or even in between there and you have the makings of a plus rotation.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 29, 2024 11:47:21 GMT -5
It was clear it would be a stretch to get this many innings under his belt, but he's there. It's an exercise in pacing and preparation and it does bode well for his future. I think you're right about that.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 29, 2024 11:56:22 GMT -5
Well this didn't happen.
Whither Kutter, I wonder. His problem is the long ball, but his HR/FB rate isn't even that bad: it was 20th out of 58 qualified this season. The problem is that he has a middling K rate so allows a decent number of balls in play, and he is 2nd in the percentage of those balls in play that are fly balls. Otherwise, though, he doesn't allow a lot of hard contact.
He's very solid as a #4 starter as is, but I wonder if he has another gear he can get to.
I do think Kutter has another gear to get to IMO anyway. He went from 120 innings in 2023 to 170 this year so my hope is that he's now ready and able to go as a very good SP. I think he's a #3 personally but we'll see. I very much think that a 1,2,3 of houck bello Crawford is the makings of a decent rotation. Of course you throw someone at the front or even in between there and you have the makings of a plus rotation. Yeah, I'd momentarily forgotten about the workload issue with him. Sure would be cool if they could get first half Houck/Crawford and second half Bello for a full season next year. (And, er, 2021 Giolito.)
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,589
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Post by asm18 on Sept 29, 2024 12:00:08 GMT -5
Not the shoulder surgery one expected
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Post by greenmonster on Sept 29, 2024 12:37:39 GMT -5
Not the shoulder surgery one expected Curious if this has had anything to do with Yoshida not playing in the outfield this season.
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