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9/27-9/29 Red Sox vs. Rays Series Thread
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Post by incandenza on Sept 28, 2024 12:38:19 GMT -5
Pivetta, by the way, joined Bello in getting to exactly 2.0 fWAR. Kutter is sitting at 1.9 going into today. If he gets to 2.0 the Red Sox would join the Royals, Twins, and Mariners as the only AL teams with 4 2-WAR pitchers (Mariners actually have 5).
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 28, 2024 12:42:51 GMT -5
Pivetta, by the way, joined Bello in getting to exactly 2.0 fWAR. Kutter is sitting at 1.9 going into today. If he gets to 2.0 the Red Sox would join the Royals, Twins, and Mariners as the only AL teams with 4 2-WAR pitchers (Mariners actually have 5). Resigning Pivetta, adding the UCL rehabbers, Priester and Fitts would leave me feeling pretty damn good about the 2025 rotation
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 28, 2024 12:48:15 GMT -5
Nick Yorke at -0.1 WAR. A lot rides on us winning year one of this trade.
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Post by finaliz3d on Sept 28, 2024 12:51:58 GMT -5
I'll try to be nice, but... First, Dempster was not paid to be the #5 starter. He was paid to be the #3 starter but had a meh season and ended up as the #5 starter while Lackey returned to form after having an ERA of 6 in 2012, and Doubront being marginally better than Dempster. Second, he was coming off of a 4 bWAR season, that's why they paid him, Pivetta has never had a season above 3 WAR, Dempster had 4, including 2012. Pivetta has never had an ERA under 4 as a starter, Dempster has done it 5 times... Pivetta is fine, he's a useful pitcher, he's not a 20 million pitcher. If you want to offer him a contract that's fine, but I'm not giving him a QO. No need to try to be nice. This is the Internet. Get ready for a bloody battle in the Pivetta War.🙂 Actually we're both wrong. I had forgotten how good Dempster was good in his time with the 2012 Cubbies, though a lot of his success was driven by a .243 BABIP. It's worth noting that he was a disappointment after his trade to Texas. In August and September with the Strangers, he was .2 WAR with a 5.09 ERA and 1.435 WHIP (In fairness, his FIP with the Strangers was a full run lower than his ERA.) Lackey did not have an ERA of 6 in 2012. You might be referring to 2011 when he was well over 6 with a WAR of -1.9. But he was gutting it out with an arm held together by Scotch tape. (I've always thought Red Sox fans' treatment of Lackey that year was terrible, right up there with the booing Mark Bellhorn took in 2005. But that's a discussion for another day.) Lackey's return to being an excellent P in 2013 was not a surprise, given his prior record, the success many guys have coming back from TJ and the timing of his surgery. He had it at the end of 2011, giving him what at the time was considered the optimal recovery time. I don't think anyone thought at the start of 2013 that Dempster was a No. 3 on a good team. My recollection is that we all knew the Red Sox needed - and expected - bouncebacks from Lester, Lackey and Buchholz, along with full recoveries from Papi and Ellsbury in order to compete. Back to Pivetta, he has been a solid SP during his time here. He's been above average in run suppression each year except for 2022. He eats innings. At worst, he could be a multi-inning weapon out of the BP. His acceptance of a QO would not cripple the 2025 team. His likely rejection of it would net us a pick and more money to spread around in the 2025 draft. And then you're free of his $20M salary, which would help with you add veteran talent to a potentially specutacular young core for 2026. 1) I read the years wrong, doesn't change much of anything I said though. Lackey had in succession, a mediocre 2010, a horrible 2011, and missed the year in 2012. Anyone expecting him to be better than Dempster was holding on to tenuous hope. It worked out, obviously, but Dempster was the #3 at the start of the year. I found a season preview for 2013 that has Dempster as the #3 from Bleacher Report, CBS Sports had Dempster as the #3. Finally, who was the starter for game three of the season after Lester and Bucholz started game 1 & 2? Dempster. Who started game 5 after Doubront started game 4? Lackey. It is just a fact that he was the #3 starter and that's why they paid him, hoping to see what he did in the first half of 2012 rather than the second half 2) Pivetta is fine, there's nothing wrong with signing him, 20 million is just a lot for a guy who isn't projected or at least shouldn't be projected near the top of your rotation. He will eat you innings and will give you a chance to win, he's very solid and reliable. But he tops out as a #4/#5 starter and at worst is a bulk pen arm. It's just way too much money and why in the world would Pivetta reject the QO though? If you give him the QO he would accept it, accepting the QO would make him a top 15 paid starting pitcher. It's fantasy to assume you can QO him and then he'll just automatically reject it. Again, he's nowhere close to being a top 15 starter in the league and he would take that kind of money in a heartbeat. 3) If your suggestion is that making a mistake like giving him the QO won't cripple the 2025 Red Sox that's probably true. But also, Id rather just not make the mistake in the first place, plain and simple. There's much better things to spend 20m on.
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 28, 2024 14:41:59 GMT -5
Nick Yorke just pulled a nice homer at YS
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 28, 2024 14:45:10 GMT -5
No need to try to be nice. This is the Internet. Get ready for a bloody battle in the Pivetta War.🙂 Actually we're both wrong. I had forgotten how good Dempster was good in his time with the 2012 Cubbies, though a lot of his success was driven by a .243 BABIP. It's worth noting that he was a disappointment after his trade to Texas. In August and September with the Strangers, he was .2 WAR with a 5.09 ERA and 1.435 WHIP (In fairness, his FIP with the Strangers was a full run lower than his ERA.) Lackey did not have an ERA of 6 in 2012. You might be referring to 2011 when he was well over 6 with a WAR of -1.9. But he was gutting it out with an arm held together by Scotch tape. (I've always thought Red Sox fans' treatment of Lackey that year was terrible, right up there with the booing Mark Bellhorn took in 2005. But that's a discussion for another day.) Lackey's return to being an excellent P in 2013 was not a surprise, given his prior record, the success many guys have coming back from TJ and the timing of his surgery. He had it at the end of 2011, giving him what at the time was considered the optimal recovery time. I don't think anyone thought at the start of 2013 that Dempster was a No. 3 on a good team. My recollection is that we all knew the Red Sox needed - and expected - bouncebacks from Lester, Lackey and Buchholz, along with full recoveries from Papi and Ellsbury in order to compete. Back to Pivetta, he has been a solid SP during his time here. He's been above average in run suppression each year except for 2022. He eats innings. At worst, he could be a multi-inning weapon out of the BP. His acceptance of a QO would not cripple the 2025 team. His likely rejection of it would net us a pick and more money to spread around in the 2025 draft. And then you're free of his $20M salary, which would help with you add veteran talent to a potentially specutacular young core for 2026. 1) I read the years wrong, doesn't change much of anything I said though. Lackey had in succession, a mediocre 2010, a horrible 2011, and missed the year in 2012. Anyone expecting him to be better than Dempster was holding on to tenuous hope. It worked out, obviously, but Dempster was the #3 at the start of the year. I found a season preview for 2013 that has Dempster as the #3 from Bleacher Report, CBS Sports had Dempster as the #3. Finally, who was the starter for game three of the season after Lester and Bucholz started game 1 & 2? Dempster. Who started game 5 after Doubront started game 4? Lackey. It is just a fact that he was the #3 starter and that's why they paid him, hoping to see what he did in the first half of 2012 rather than the second half 2) Pivetta is fine, there's nothing wrong with signing him, 20 million is just a lot for a guy who isn't projected or at least shouldn't be projected near the top of your rotation. He will eat you innings and will give you a chance to win, he's very solid and reliable. But he tops out as a #4/#5 starter and at worst is a bulk pen arm. It's just way too much money and why in the world would Pivetta reject the QO though? If you give him the QO he would accept it, accepting the QO would make him a top 15 paid starting pitcher. It's fantasy to assume you can QO him and then he'll just automatically reject it. Again, he's nowhere close to being a top 15 starter in the league and he would take that kind of money in a heartbeat. 3) If your suggestion is that making a mistake like giving him the QO won't cripple the 2025 Red Sox that's probably true. But also, Id rather just not make the mistake in the first place, plain and simple. There's much better things to spend 20m on. In all honesty 20M really isn't that much for a 3/4 starter these days assuming it's 3 or 4 year deal. I'm not necessarily advocating for or against it at this point though. I do agree there are better avenues to spend that 20M. I'd rather take that 20M and throw an extra 5-10 for burnes or fried. Ya the contract would be longer but you're getting a better pitcher most likely.
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Post by cheers on Sept 28, 2024 15:00:41 GMT -5
Hoping to see our North Carolina contingent today. Looks like y'all are having a rough go of it over there. Hope all is well.
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Post by cheers on Sept 28, 2024 15:11:07 GMT -5
Like the lineup today. Let's see if we can't get the NH kid a big league hit.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,961
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 28, 2024 15:51:47 GMT -5
No need to try to be nice. This is the Internet. Get ready for a bloody battle in the Pivetta War.🙂 Actually we're both wrong. I had forgotten how good Dempster was good in his time with the 2012 Cubbies, though a lot of his success was driven by a .243 BABIP. It's worth noting that he was a disappointment after his trade to Texas. In August and September with the Strangers, he was .2 WAR with a 5.09 ERA and 1.435 WHIP (In fairness, his FIP with the Strangers was a full run lower than his ERA.) Lackey did not have an ERA of 6 in 2012. You might be referring to 2011 when he was well over 6 with a WAR of -1.9. But he was gutting it out with an arm held together by Scotch tape. (I've always thought Red Sox fans' treatment of Lackey that year was terrible, right up there with the booing Mark Bellhorn took in 2005. But that's a discussion for another day.) Lackey's return to being an excellent P in 2013 was not a surprise, given his prior record, the success many guys have coming back from TJ and the timing of his surgery. He had it at the end of 2011, giving him what at the time was considered the optimal recovery time. I don't think anyone thought at the start of 2013 that Dempster was a No. 3 on a good team. My recollection is that we all knew the Red Sox needed - and expected - bouncebacks from Lester, Lackey and Buchholz, along with full recoveries from Papi and Ellsbury in order to compete. Back to Pivetta, he has been a solid SP during his time here. He's been above average in run suppression each year except for 2022. He eats innings. At worst, he could be a multi-inning weapon out of the BP. His acceptance of a QO would not cripple the 2025 team. His likely rejection of it would net us a pick and more money to spread around in the 2025 draft. And then you're free of his $20M salary, which would help with you add veteran talent to a potentially specutacular young core for 2026. 1) I read the years wrong, doesn't change much of anything I said though. Lackey had in succession, a mediocre 2010, a horrible 2011, and missed the year in 2012. Anyone expecting him to be better than Dempster was holding on to tenuous hope. It worked out, obviously, but Dempster was the #3 at the start of the year. I found a season preview for 2013 that has Dempster as the #3 from Bleacher Report, CBS Sports had Dempster as the #3. Finally, who was the starter for game three of the season after Lester and Bucholz started game 1 & 2? Dempster. Who started game 5 after Doubront started game 4? Lackey. It is just a fact that he was the #3 starter and that's why they paid him, hoping to see what he did in the first half of 2012 rather than the second half 2) Pivetta is fine, there's nothing wrong with signing him, 20 million is just a lot for a guy who isn't projected or at least shouldn't be projected near the top of your rotation. He will eat you innings and will give you a chance to win, he's very solid and reliable. But he tops out as a #4/#5 starter and at worst is a bulk pen arm. It's just way too much money and why in the world would Pivetta reject the QO though? If you give him the QO he would accept it, accepting the QO would make him a top 15 paid starting pitcher. It's fantasy to assume you can QO him and then he'll just automatically reject it. Again, he's nowhere close to being a top 15 starter in the league and he would take that kind of money in a heartbeat. 3) If your suggestion is that making a mistake like giving him the QO won't cripple the 2025 Red Sox that's probably true. But also, Id rather just not make the mistake in the first place, plain and simple. There's much better things to spend 20m on. Those are all fair points, especially the expectations people had for Dempster at the start of the 2013 season. I just don't remember that. I do remember that based on my own vast knowledge of what it takes to succeed as a ML SP (self-deprecating sarcasm) I looked forward to Lackey's return with a lot of hope. I disagree about your expectation that he'd accept the QO. Someone posted on here a list of comparable or lesser FA SP from the last couple of years and made the point that they got multi-year deals that were better than a QO. I also think that if JWH doesn't want to use his big market advantage by upping the payroll, he should use it other ways. Taking what some may see as a minor gamble on Pivetta accepting the QO in order to have a shot at an additional pick is one of those ways, IMO.
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Post by cheers on Sept 28, 2024 15:53:06 GMT -5
That Caminiero shot may have got all the way to the Mass Pike. Yikes.
Edit: Statcast says 371 ft. My eyes deceive.
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 28, 2024 16:27:34 GMT -5
The Sox are gunning for a better draft pick
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Post by cheers on Sept 28, 2024 16:31:55 GMT -5
Tough outing, and hit-or-miss season for Kutter, but the fact that he is the first Sox' pitcher to throw 180 innings since Eovaldi can't be diminished. I think he'll be better next year.
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 28, 2024 16:33:34 GMT -5
Was there any doubt Weissert would allow Crawford's inherited runners
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 28, 2024 16:34:09 GMT -5
If the Giants hold on to their two run lead then we're looking at drafting 9th with a loss and 12th with a win tomorrow. edit: actually we're 13th if we win and Giants lose tomorrow
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Post by sxfan on Sept 28, 2024 16:37:37 GMT -5
If the Giants hold on to their two run lead then we're looking at drafting 9th with a loss and 12th with a win tomorrow What a awesome outcome. Pretty good odds for a lottery pick too.
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Post by finaliz3d on Sept 28, 2024 16:39:04 GMT -5
1) I read the years wrong, doesn't change much of anything I said though. Lackey had in succession, a mediocre 2010, a horrible 2011, and missed the year in 2012. Anyone expecting him to be better than Dempster was holding on to tenuous hope. It worked out, obviously, but Dempster was the #3 at the start of the year. I found a season preview for 2013 that has Dempster as the #3 from Bleacher Report, CBS Sports had Dempster as the #3. Finally, who was the starter for game three of the season after Lester and Bucholz started game 1 & 2? Dempster. Who started game 5 after Doubront started game 4? Lackey. It is just a fact that he was the #3 starter and that's why they paid him, hoping to see what he did in the first half of 2012 rather than the second half 2) Pivetta is fine, there's nothing wrong with signing him, 20 million is just a lot for a guy who isn't projected or at least shouldn't be projected near the top of your rotation. He will eat you innings and will give you a chance to win, he's very solid and reliable. But he tops out as a #4/#5 starter and at worst is a bulk pen arm. It's just way too much money and why in the world would Pivetta reject the QO though? If you give him the QO he would accept it, accepting the QO would make him a top 15 paid starting pitcher. It's fantasy to assume you can QO him and then he'll just automatically reject it. Again, he's nowhere close to being a top 15 starter in the league and he would take that kind of money in a heartbeat. 3) If your suggestion is that making a mistake like giving him the QO won't cripple the 2025 Red Sox that's probably true. But also, Id rather just not make the mistake in the first place, plain and simple. There's much better things to spend 20m on. Those are all fair points, especially the expectations people had for Dempster at the start of the 2013 season. I just don't remember that. I do remember that based on my own vast knowledge of what it takes to succeed as a ML SP (self-deprecating sarcasm) I looked forward to Lackey's return with a lot of hope. I disagree about your expectation that he'd accept the QO. Someone posted on here a list of comparable or lesser FA SP from the last couple of years and made the point that they got multi-year deals that were better than a QO. I also think that if JWH doesn't want to use his big market advantage by upping the payroll, he should use it other ways. Taking what some may see as a minor gamble on Pivetta accepting the QO in order to have a shot at an additional pick is one of those ways, IMO. Okay, you're wrong, but whatever. Let's focus on the game now that it's on... even if the Red Sox haven't realized that the game started either.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 28, 2024 17:01:14 GMT -5
Hi all from Western NC. Poor internet, no power, lots of trees down - but we're ok. 20.6 inches of rain in 3 days, 4 hours of 70 mph winds. Ugh. But...no trees on the house. The reason for my absence.
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Post by cheers on Sept 28, 2024 17:03:12 GMT -5
Hi all from Western NC. Poor internet, no power, lots of trees down - but we're ok. 20.6 inches of rain in 3 days, 4 hours of 70 mph winds. Ugh. But...no trees on the house. The reason for my absence. Glad you are OK. What a mess!
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Post by finaliz3d on Sept 28, 2024 17:03:48 GMT -5
Hi all from Western NC. Poor internet, no power, lots of trees down - but we're ok. 20.6 inches of rain in 3 days, 4 hours of 70 mph winds. Ugh. But...no trees on the house. The reason for my absence. Jesus Christ, stay safe.
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Post by sxfan on Sept 28, 2024 17:11:36 GMT -5
Cardinals getting ready to tie the game in the 7th. Ugh.
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Post by sxfan on Sept 28, 2024 17:17:11 GMT -5
Cardinals getting ready to tie the game in the 7th. Ugh. Tie game and still threatening. The Giants is having a Red Sox bullpen esq collapse.
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Post by finaliz3d on Sept 28, 2024 17:19:13 GMT -5
Cardinals getting ready to tie the game in the 7th. Ugh. Tie game and still threatening. The Giants is having a Red Sox bullpen esq collapse. Just gotta hope for a double play here. edit: Got a strikeout to make it 2 outs. edit 2: and a flyout, still 5-5 end of inning.
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Post by sxfan on Sept 28, 2024 17:30:48 GMT -5
Sox took care of business with the 14th pick, with today's loss.
They can't pick lower than 13th after today.
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Post by cheers on Sept 28, 2024 17:40:46 GMT -5
Well, that was uninspiring. I hope the magnet is on for tomorrow.
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Post by sxfan on Sept 28, 2024 17:49:17 GMT -5
Well, that was uninspiring. I hope the magnet is on for tomorrow. Hope not! The Sox have a chance for 4 picks higher if they have a guaranteed loss tomorrow. Giants took the lead!
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