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Should the Red Sox re-sign Nick Pivetta?
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Post by carl4sox on Sept 28, 2024 7:43:42 GMT -5
Not being resigned? He was nails last night, and he was clearly emotional.
I can't believe he'll want top dollar to resign. And we current,y have no closer.
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Sept 28, 2024 8:03:22 GMT -5
He will be 32 to start next season. He will absolutely want top dollar, this is the moment he's been working towards. I love the idea of him being a closer but he has been adamant that he is a starter. His durability and stuff will give him a significantly higher pay day as a starter than as a closer.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 28, 2024 8:49:57 GMT -5
I'd be fine with Pivetta back but as with anything it comes down to price. I'm not getting in a bidding war for him if I'm breslow. I'm not going to put a guesstimate of a contract out there but I do feel like he's going to ultimately get more than I'd like to see the Sox pay.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Sept 28, 2024 11:53:04 GMT -5
I would not be happy if he is back next year. The team has limited levers to pull in order to improve the roster, and taking Pivetta’s spot from good to great is one of them. They have enough mid-rotation arms. They need someone to anchor the staff. That isn’t Pivetta.
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Post by finaliz3d on Sept 28, 2024 15:51:38 GMT -5
Cool either way if it's just signing him to a cheap deal, though again he's a weird fit when he's a #4 or #5 and this team has so many of those guys now. Assuming you get a #1/#2 who's at least as good as Houck, you'll have Crawford, Fitts, Priester, and Giolito all fighting for two spots. Add to that Whitlock and how he factors in, it's just an odd fit.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Sept 28, 2024 16:46:51 GMT -5
Cool either way if it's just signing him to a cheap deal, though again he's a weird fit when he's a #4 or #5 and this team has so many of those guys now. Assuming you get a #1/#2 who's at least as good as Houck, you'll have Crawford, Fitts, Priester, and Giolito all fighting for two spots. Add to that Whitlock and how he factors in, it's just an odd fit. I think you are making a BIG assumption. I have seen nothing over the last 3 years that leads me to believe this front office/ownership group are going to be able to acquire someone as good as Houck. Even if they do, one of their 'extra" starters (Crawford maybe) could start the year as the long man while people like Fitts, Prester, and Criswell at AAA. Then went the inevitable injury to a starter happens you have someone to fill in. I would at least make Pivetta a qualifying offer.
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Post by finaliz3d on Sept 28, 2024 16:58:52 GMT -5
Cool either way if it's just signing him to a cheap deal, though again he's a weird fit when he's a #4 or #5 and this team has so many of those guys now. Assuming you get a #1/#2 who's at least as good as Houck, you'll have Crawford, Fitts, Priester, and Giolito all fighting for two spots. Add to that Whitlock and how he factors in, it's just an odd fit. I think you are making a BIG assumption. I have seen nothing over the last 3 years that leads me to believe this front office/ownership group are going to be able to acquire someone as good as Houck. Even if they do, one of their 'extra" starters (Crawford maybe) could start the year as the long man while people like Fitts, Prester, and Criswell at AAA. Then went the inevitable injury to a starter happens you have someone to fill in. I would at least make Pivetta a qualifying offer. If the Red Sox are a serious team, they will get someone. If they don't that's a failure of an offseason. Whether by trade or from f/a, they have to get someone. I wouldn't QO Pivetta on the assumption that the Red Sox are just a failure of a team because I'm not that much of a doomer. They have the money if they want to get a F/A, they have the prospect capital/young players if they want to trade for one. There are no excuses this offseason. Also, Criswell is out of options next year, if they want to send him down next year that means he's being waived, and somebody is probably claiming them to be their longman instead.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 28, 2024 18:00:53 GMT -5
I think you are making a BIG assumption. I have seen nothing over the last 3 years that leads me to believe this front office/ownership group are going to be able to acquire someone as good as Houck. Even if they do, one of their 'extra" starters (Crawford maybe) could start the year as the long man while people like Fitts, Prester, and Criswell at AAA. Then went the inevitable injury to a starter happens you have someone to fill in. I would at least make Pivetta a qualifying offer. If the Red Sox are a serious team, they will get someone. If they don't that's a failure of an offseason. Whether by trade or from f/a, they have to get someone. I wouldn't QO Pivetta on the assumption that the Red Sox are just a failure of a team because I'm not that much of a doomer. They have the money if they want to get a F/A, they have the prospect capital/young players if they want to trade for one. There are no excuses this offseason. Also, Criswell is out of options next year, if they want to send him down next year that means he's being waived, and somebody is probably claiming them to be their longman instead. If Criswell has no more options, then I would assume the Red Sox will trade him. He is not good enough to stick on the MLB team and would be lost if they try to send him down. Something is better than nothing. It would be their MO.
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Post by manfred on Sept 28, 2024 18:15:41 GMT -5
I kind of don’t see how you *don’t* resign him if the price is right. His numbers the last two season have been pretty consistent. He doesn’t give up a ton of base-runners and he does strike a lot of guys out. I admit, if he were a FA from elsewhere, I might not be enthusiastic, but since we can pretty much anticipate he’ll be what he’s been the last few years… I’d keep him.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Sept 28, 2024 18:47:07 GMT -5
I think you are making a BIG assumption. I have seen nothing over the last 3 years that leads me to believe this front office/ownership group are going to be able to acquire someone as good as Houck. Even if they do, one of their 'extra" starters (Crawford maybe) could start the year as the long man while people like Fitts, Prester, and Criswell at AAA. Then went the inevitable injury to a starter happens you have someone to fill in. I would at least make Pivetta a qualifying offer. If the Red Sox are a serious team, they will get someone. If they don't that's a failure of an offseason. Whether by trade or from f/a, they have to get someone. I wouldn't QO Pivetta on the assumption that the Red Sox are just a failure of a team because I'm not that much of a doomer. They have the money if they want to get a F/A, they have the prospect capital/young players if they want to trade for one. There are no excuses this offseason. Also, Criswell is out of options next year, if they want to send him down next year that means he's being waived, and somebody is probably claiming them to be their longman instead. Did not realize that about Criswell. Thanks. I agree that they should get a top starter this off season. But they should have gotten one last off season too (especially after the Sale trade) and they didn't. Giving Pivetta a qualifying offer, even if he accepts it, shouldn't keep them from getting a top starter this off season either if they are a "serious team". My fear is that they no longer are a serious team. Cots has their 2018 opening day payroll at $233 million plus. Their 2024 opening day payroll, after 6 years of inflation was $171 million plus, 12th in baseball. I realize there are teams that spend a lot of money who do poorly. But there are also a lot of teams who spend money who win. I would like to see the Red Sox try spending again.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 28, 2024 19:09:16 GMT -5
Isn't Pivetta what the Red Sox paid Giolito to be, except that they gave him what amounts to a two-year contract? I mean I can't imagine anyone thought Giolito was likely to return to his 2021 form. He was going to be an IP guy with a league average ERA. That's Nick Pivetta's middle name.
QO the guy, see if he accepts and respond accordingly. With him or without him, the Red Sox need to add an impact SP if they're serious about 2025.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Sept 28, 2024 19:15:43 GMT -5
Can’t risk him accepting the QO. We aren’t sure the Sox will use all of the money they have shaking free anyways, why risk putting all of our eggs in the Pivetta basket?
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Post by finaliz3d on Sept 28, 2024 19:32:03 GMT -5
Isn't Pivetta what the Red Sox paid Giolito to be, except that they gave him what amounts to a two-year contract? I mean I can't imagine anyone thought Giolito was likely to return to his 2021 form. He was going to be an IP guy with a league average ERA. That's Nick Pivetta's middle name. QO the guy, see if he accepts and respond accordingly. With him or without him, the Red Sox need to add an impact SP if they're serious about 2025. If you want Pivetta, sign him, don't do a QO and overpay him for no good reason. He won't turn down the QO, I don't see a world where he says no to $20m. The hope for Giolito was that he could give you a 3 WAR season based off his pedigree and give you #3 starter production... even though the Red Sox were going to have him as the #1 or #2... it was a massive disappointment in an otherwise excellent offseason that we went dumpster diving for top-end pitching. Houck can work as a #2, Bello can work as a #3. Kutter Crawford has had more WAR than Pivetta over the last two years (2.3/1.9 bWAR for Pivetta, 2.6/2.5 for Crawford). Anything Pivetta does, Crawford can do as your #4. You could sign Pivetta to be your #5, you're not paying 20m for him though, but you also have Giolito lined up for that spot, with Fitts, Priester, Whitlock if you want, Dobbins waiting in the wings for a spot start if need be... it's a weird fit. The conversation makes more sense to sign Pivetta if you don't get that #1/#2 starter. I'd rather just not QO him and if you fail to get a #1/#2 starter, which would be a damning statement about Breslow, you could just sign Pivetta after the fact or someone similar or just rock with what you have. You can easily find a 5th starter.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Sept 28, 2024 19:52:04 GMT -5
Can’t risk him accepting the QO. We aren’t sure the Sox will use all of the money they have shaking free anyways, why risk putting all of our eggs in the Pivetta basket? Sounds like they are more likely to address their most expensive need (ace) via trade rather than spending in FA. Thus, they can definitely stomach the risk of Pivetta and TON accepting QO's if they feel it's a close call and worth rolling the dice: Chris Sale - $17M Kenley Jansen - $16M Chris Martin - $8M SUM: $43M QO (NP) + QO (TON) = $43M If they decide to replace Kenley and Martin with Hendriks and Slaten, they can pretty much offset the 2 QO's with Sale/Kenley/Martin falling off the books. But that is the downside scenario. The hope should be they decline and depart, and we maneuver with increased flexibility and draft capital.
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Post by finaliz3d on Sept 28, 2024 20:59:07 GMT -5
Can’t risk him accepting the QO. We aren’t sure the Sox will use all of the money they have shaking free anyways, why risk putting all of our eggs in the Pivetta basket? Sounds like they are more likely to address their most expensive need (ace) via trade rather than spending in FA. Thus, they can definitely stomach the risk of Pivetta and TON accepting QO's if they feel it's a close call and worth rolling the dice: Chris Sale - $17M Kenley Jansen - $16M Chris Martin - $8M SUM: $43M QO (NP) + QO (TON) = $43M If they decide to replace Kenley and Martin with Hendriks and Slaten, they can pretty much offset the 2 QO's with Sale/Kenley/Martin falling off the books. But that is the downside scenario. The hope should be they decline and depart, and we maneuver with increased flexibility and draft capital. 17 + 16 + 18 = 41, or rather 41.75 because Martin is making 8.75. Just checked the QO value as I've been saying it's 20M, it's actually set to be $21.2m. So I guess 41.75m, with the QO costing 42.4m, so pretty much offset, I guess. Again though, I don't see a scenario where either would decline the QO, which yes, the ideal situation would be that you offer the QO and they decline so we can get a draft pick. That is not a realistic scenario so I would rule it out. To me the options are either a) We offer the QO and they accept it, b) We don't offer the QO and they walk, c) We don't offer the QO and we sign both or either to other deals that aren't the QO. If you are going to re-sign them O'Neill is comparable to Soler who got 3y/42m (14m AAV)... I don't really have a good comparable to Pivetta from last year... he's probably somewhere between Maeda who got 2y/24m (12m AAV) and Wacha who got 2y/32m (16m AAV). So I would wager overall 14m is what they would both get around. 2y/28m for both would be much cheaper than doing 1y/21.2m for both, that's 14.4m you would save by signing them instead of a QO. Not that I think they should re-sign either of them necessarily, but a QO would just be bad economic sense. We also have to give raises to guys like Duran, Houck, Crawford. We need that flexibility. If you plan on moving Yoshida and re-signing O'Neill okay. Pivetta is the one I can't really wrap my head around unless you don't get a top pitcher to pair with Houck, and if you don't do that then the offseason probably sucked.
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asm18
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Posts: 2,590
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Post by asm18 on Sept 28, 2024 21:52:39 GMT -5
Isn't Pivetta what the Red Sox paid Giolito to be, except that they gave him what amounts to a two-year contract? I mean I can't imagine anyone thought Giolito was likely to return to his 2021 form. He was going to be an IP guy with a league average ERA. That's Nick Pivetta's middle name. QO the guy, see if he accepts and respond accordingly. With him or without him, the Red Sox need to add an impact SP if they're serious about 2025. It would just seem bizarre to offer Giolito what was essentially 1 year 18 mil PLUS a player option mere months after he gave up double digit homers for 3 different teams (yes that is a real stat) - but then a year later later decline to offer Pivetta 1 year 20 mil coming off a better season
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Post by keninten on Sept 29, 2024 0:58:43 GMT -5
I think you are making a BIG assumption. I have seen nothing over the last 3 years that leads me to believe this front office/ownership group are going to be able to acquire someone as good as Houck. Even if they do, one of their 'extra" starters (Crawford maybe) could start the year as the long man while people like Fitts, Prester, and Criswell at AAA. Then went the inevitable injury to a starter happens you have someone to fill in. I would at least make Pivetta a qualifying offer. If the Red Sox are a serious team, they will get someone. If they don't that's a failure of an offseason. Whether by trade or from f/a, they have to get someone. I wouldn't QO Pivetta on the assumption that the Red Sox are just a failure of a team because I'm not that much of a doomer. They have the money if they want to get a F/A, they have the prospect capital/young players if they want to trade for one. There are no excuses this offseason. Also, Criswell is out of options next year, if they want to send him down next year that means he's being waived, and somebody is probably claiming them to be their longman instead.I`m not positive about this but doesn`t Criswell have another option year after this year?
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Post by finaliz3d on Sept 29, 2024 2:07:07 GMT -5
If the Red Sox are a serious team, they will get someone. If they don't that's a failure of an offseason. Whether by trade or from f/a, they have to get someone. I wouldn't QO Pivetta on the assumption that the Red Sox are just a failure of a team because I'm not that much of a doomer. They have the money if they want to get a F/A, they have the prospect capital/young players if they want to trade for one. There are no excuses this offseason. Also, Criswell is out of options next year, if they want to send him down next year that means he's being waived, and somebody is probably claiming them to be their longman instead.I`m not positive about this but doesn`t Criswell have another option year after this year? He doesn't, 2021 used up his first option, 2023 used up his second option, his final option was used this year as he spent more than 20 days in the minors. This year was his last year.
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Post by finaliz3d on Sept 29, 2024 2:13:01 GMT -5
Isn't Pivetta what the Red Sox paid Giolito to be, except that they gave him what amounts to a two-year contract? I mean I can't imagine anyone thought Giolito was likely to return to his 2021 form. He was going to be an IP guy with a league average ERA. That's Nick Pivetta's middle name. QO the guy, see if he accepts and respond accordingly. With him or without him, the Red Sox need to add an impact SP if they're serious about 2025. It would just seem bizarre to offer Giolito what was essentially 1 year 18 mil PLUS a player option mere months after he gave up double digit homers for 3 different teams (yes that is a real stat) - but then a year later later decline to offer Pivetta 1 year 20 mil coming off a better season Just because you make a mistake once doesn't mean you should make the same mistake twice.
Anyways, Giolito got 18m mostly because of his pedigree/performance in Chicago that season (he was on pace for a 4 WAR season there before getting traded), and also because the Red Sox were desperate to get top rotation help without paying top rotation price. Pivetta doesn't have that kind of ceiling, he's a 2 WAR pitcher, and that's perfectly acceptable, just not 20m acceptable. And the other factor, the Red Sox aren't desperate because they have so many options for the back-end of the rotation.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 29, 2024 2:35:47 GMT -5
Pivetta accepting a QO to look for a good del elsewhere next year seems unlikely since he's more likely than not to be a reliever here at any cost.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 29, 2024 3:11:53 GMT -5
Here's a quick list of pitchers who received qualifying offers over the past 3 seasons.
Declined: Shohei Ohtani Josh Hader Sonny Gray Blake Snell Aaron Nola Tyler Anderson Carlos Rodon Chris Bassitt Jacob Degrom Nathan Eovaldi Robbie Ray Noah Synergaard Eduardo Rodriguez Raisel Iglesias Justin Verlander
Accepted: Martin Perez
I would put Pivetta behind all of the pitchers listed aside from Anderson and Perez - but both of those guys were coming off career years which weren't as supported by peripheral statistics, and in Anderson's case there was a career low walk-rate which ballooned after signing his next contract. Pivetta has been more consistent than those two and isn't coming off an outlier career season.
There are some borderline cases over the past 3 years for pitchers not given a qualifying offer (Rodon was the only true head-scratcher), but only a couple who are arguably in the range of Pivetta at a similar/lesser age (e.g. Taillon, Walker). Unless the Red Sox have another deal lined up then I'd expect them to offer Pivetta a qualifying offer, and more likely than not he would reject the offer, just as 15 of the last 16 pitchers have. But it's certainly a very close call for both sides. He's likely looking at a 3-4 year deal in the 15-20mil range in free agency - based on similar pitchers.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 29, 2024 8:05:55 GMT -5
I think they offer the QO and I think he declines, for the reasons mentioned above and also because if he does accept there’s some chance he is moved to the bullpen during the year and that would not help his next contract.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Sept 29, 2024 8:11:13 GMT -5
It would just seem bizarre to offer Giolito what was essentially 1 year 18 mil PLUS a player option mere months after he gave up double digit homers for 3 different teams (yes that is a real stat) - but then a year later later decline to offer Pivetta 1 year 20 mil coming off a better season Just because you make a mistake once doesn't mean you should make the same mistake twice.
Anyways, Giolito got 18m mostly because of his pedigree/performance in Chicago that season (he was on pace for a 4 WAR season there before getting traded), and also because the Red Sox were desperate to get top rotation help without paying top rotation price. Pivetta doesn't have that kind of ceiling, he's a 2 WAR pitcher, and that's perfectly acceptable, just not 20m acceptable. And the other factor, the Red Sox aren't desperate because they have so many options for the back-end of the rotation.
Well that’s the thing - it wouldn’t be the same mistake, right? If Pivetta accepts a QO and gets Tommy John in February, they are not then on the hook for another year as they are now for Giolito. (Fwiw I am much less bullish on Giolito - I know some are willing to give him benefit of the doubt for 2023 because of the trade/divorce stuff. He was mediocre in 2022 as well. Pivetta has been better by both results and peripherals in his two years preceding free agency than Gilolito was. Lucas admittedly was like 2 younger iirc, though Pivetta is also a pitch metrics darling.) I was ambivalent about QO’ing Pivetta - but once the Sox basically telegraphed (see Alex Speier NESN comments) they aren’t spending big money on a starter, I don’t see it as a huge risk. Like where else is that 60 mil gap before the CBT gonna go? They’re not signing Burnes, they’re not signing Soto. We can have a sad little bidding war for like Luis Severino or Sean Manaea or guys like that - but at that point Pivetta at 1/20 seems perfectly fine? Most high end starter targets they would get via trade don’t have huge salaries, so it’s not like they couldn’t offer Pivetta a QO in November and then trade for (fill in the blank with your choice of controllable starter/ace) later on in the off-season. Aka: Starter X, Houck, Bello, Crawford, Pivetta, Giolito (plus Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Whitlock, etc). I’m sure some will suggest that means the rotation would be too crowded. Considering every February guys come into camp, ramp up, get hurt and then need TJ, I feel like it ultimately would work itself out.
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Post by patford on Sept 29, 2024 9:52:18 GMT -5
They absolutely should re-sign Pivetta. Aside from that I am completely mystified as to why there are people who believe the Sox should trade for a #1 type starting pitcher rather than sign a #1 type starting pitcher as a free agent. Yes a free agent will be expensive but any #1 starting pitcher is already expensive or going to be shortly and add in giving up assets.
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Post by sxfan on Sept 29, 2024 11:28:17 GMT -5
They absolutely should re-sign Pivetta. Aside from that I am completely mystified as to why there are people who believe the Sox should trade for a #1 type starting pitcher rather than sign a #1 type starting pitcher as a free agent. Yes a free agent will be expensive but any #1 starting pitcher is already expensive or going to be shortly and add in giving up assets. Is there even a number one starter on the free agent market this year? Probably the only one who could be is Shane Bieber, but he's coming off Tommy John surgery. Fangraphs just wrote a article talking about how Corbin Burnes doesn't have the same cutter he had 2 years ago. Max Fried doesn't stay healthy enough and his stuff doesn't scream number one starter either. To me both these guys are really good number 2 starters in a great rotation. They'll be paid like aces the next 6-7 years. That's part of the problem.
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