Should the Red Sox re-sign Nick Pivetta?

I'd be fine with Pivetta back but as with anything it comes down to price. I'm not getting in a bidding war for him if I'm breslow. I'm not going to put a guesstimate of a contract out there but I do feel like he's going to ultimately get more than I'd like to see the Sox pay.

Cool either way if it's just signing him to a cheap deal, though again he's a weird fit when he's a #4 or #5 and this team has so many of those guys now. Assuming you get a #1/#2 who's at least as good as Houck, you'll have Crawford, Fitts, Priester, and Giolito all fighting for two spots. Add to that Whitlock and how he factors in, it's just an odd fit.

If the Red Sox are a serious team, they will get someone. If they don't that's a failure of an offseason. Whether by trade or from f/a, they have to get someone. I wouldn't QO Pivetta on the assumption that the Red Sox are just a failure of a team because I'm not that much of a doomer. They have the money if they want to get a F/A, they have the prospect capital/young players if they want to trade for one. There are no excuses this offseason.

Also, Criswell is out of options next year, if they want to send him down next year that means he's being waived, and somebody is probably claiming them to be their longman instead.

I kind of don’t see how you *don’t* resign him if the price is right. His numbers the last two season have been pretty consistent. He doesn’t give up a ton of base-runners and he does strike a lot of guys out. I admit, if he were a FA from elsewhere, I might not be enthusiastic, but since we can pretty much anticipate he’ll be what he’s been the last few years… I’d keep him.

Isn't Pivetta what the Red Sox paid Giolito to be, except that they gave him what amounts to a two-year contract? I mean I can't imagine anyone thought Giolito was likely to return to his 2021 form. He was going to be an IP guy with a league average ERA. That's Nick Pivetta's middle name.

QO the guy, see if he accepts and respond accordingly. With him or without him, the Red Sox need to add an impact SP if they're serious about 2025.

If you want Pivetta, sign him, don't do a QO and overpay him for no good reason. He won't turn down the QO, I don't see a world where he says no to $20m.

The hope for Giolito was that he could give you a 3 WAR season based off his pedigree and give you #3 starter production... even though the Red Sox were going to have him as the #1 or #2... it was a massive disappointment in an otherwise excellent offseason that we went dumpster diving for top-end pitching.

Houck can work as a #2, Bello can work as a #3. Kutter Crawford has had more WAR than Pivetta over the last two years (2.3/1.9 bWAR for Pivetta, 2.6/2.5 for Crawford). Anything Pivetta does, Crawford can do as your #4. You could sign Pivetta to be your #5, you're not paying 20m for him though, but you also have Giolito lined up for that spot, with Fitts, Priester, Whitlock if you want, Dobbins waiting in the wings for a spot start if need be... it's a weird fit.

The conversation makes more sense to sign Pivetta if you don't get that #1/#2 starter. I'd rather just not QO him and if you fail to get a #1/#2 starter, which would be a damning statement about Breslow, you could just sign Pivetta after the fact or someone similar or just rock with what you have. You can easily find a 5th starter.

17 + 16 + 18 = 41, or rather 41.75 because Martin is making 8.75. Just checked the QO value as I've been saying it's 20M, it's actually set to be $21.2m. So I guess 41.75m, with the QO costing 42.4m, so pretty much offset, I guess.

Again though, I don't see a scenario where either would decline the QO, which yes, the ideal situation would be that you offer the QO and they decline so we can get a draft pick. That is not a realistic scenario so I would rule it out. To me the options are either a) We offer the QO and they accept it, b) We don't offer the QO and they walk, c) We don't offer the QO and we sign both or either to other deals that aren't the QO.

If you are going to re-sign them O'Neill is comparable to Soler who got 3y/42m (14m AAV)... I don't really have a good comparable to Pivetta from last year... he's probably somewhere between Maeda who got 2y/24m (12m AAV) and Wacha who got 2y/32m (16m AAV). So I would wager overall 14m is what they would both get around.

2y/28m for both would be much cheaper than doing 1y/21.2m for both, that's 14.4m you would save by signing them instead of a QO. Not that I think they should re-sign either of them necessarily, but a QO would just be bad economic sense. We also have to give raises to guys like Duran, Houck, Crawford. We need that flexibility.

If you plan on moving Yoshida and re-signing O'Neill okay. Pivetta is the one I can't really wrap my head around unless you don't get a top pitcher to pair with Houck, and if you don't do that then the offseason probably sucked.

I`m not positive about this but doesn`t Criswell have another option year after this year? 

Here's a quick list of pitchers who received qualifying offers over the past 3 seasons.

Declined:
Shohei Ohtani
Josh Hader
Sonny Gray
Blake Snell
Aaron Nola
Tyler Anderson
Carlos Rodon
Chris Bassitt
Jacob Degrom
Nathan Eovaldi
Robbie Ray
Noah Synergaard
Eduardo Rodriguez
Raisel Iglesias
Justin Verlander

Accepted:
Martin Perez

I would put Pivetta behind all of the pitchers listed aside from Anderson and Perez - but both of those guys were coming off career years which weren't as supported by peripheral statistics, and in Anderson's case there was a career low walk-rate which ballooned after signing his next contract. Pivetta has been more consistent than those two and isn't coming off an outlier career season.

There are some borderline cases over the past 3 years for pitchers not given a qualifying offer (Rodon was the only true head-scratcher), but only a couple who are arguably in the range of Pivetta at a similar/lesser age (e.g. Taillon, Walker). Unless the Red Sox have another deal lined up then I'd expect them to offer Pivetta a qualifying offer, and more likely than not he would reject the offer, just as 15 of the last 16 pitchers have. But it's certainly a very close call for both sides. He's likely looking at a 3-4 year deal in the 15-20mil range in free agency - based on similar pitchers.

Well that’s the thing - it wouldn’t be the same mistake, right? If Pivetta accepts a QO and gets Tommy John in February, they are not then on the hook for another year as they are now for Giolito. (Fwiw I am much less bullish on Giolito - I know some are willing to give him benefit of the doubt for 2023 because of the trade/divorce stuff. He was mediocre in 2022 as well. Pivetta has been better by both results and peripherals in his two years preceding free agency than Gilolito was. Lucas admittedly was like 2 younger iirc, though Pivetta is also a pitch metrics darling.)

I was ambivalent about QO’ing Pivetta - but once the Sox basically telegraphed (see Alex Speier NESN comments) they aren’t spending big money on a starter, I don’t see it as a huge risk. Like where else is that 60 mil gap before the CBT gonna go? They’re not signing Burnes, they’re not signing Soto. We can have a sad little bidding war for like Luis Severino or Sean Manaea or guys like that - but at that point Pivetta at 1/20 seems perfectly fine? Most high end starter targets they would get via trade don’t have huge salaries, so it’s not like they couldn’t offer Pivetta a QO in November and then trade for (fill in the blank with your choice of controllable starter/ace) later on in the off-season.

Aka: Starter X, Houck, Bello, Crawford, Pivetta, Giolito (plus Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Whitlock, etc). I’m sure some will suggest that means the rotation would be too crowded. Considering every February guys come into camp, ramp up, get hurt and then need TJ, I feel like it ultimately would work itself out.