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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 17, 2024 19:39:02 GMT -5
The problem with that argument is that Yoshida had more defensive value as a DH in 2024 than as a LF in 2023. 2023: DEF: -18.6 over 580 PA 2024: DEF: -10.9 over 421 PA Pro-rate that out to to 580 PA worth of playing time and it would be a -15.0 equivalent. You can't strip out the positional adjustment and just go with wRC+ when the player has demonstrated he's such a bad fielder that his bad fielding outweighs the DH penalty. It was frustrating at times that the Sox refused to use Yoshida in the field, but arguably the strategy saved them a few runs. Whether as a DH or a LF, Yoshida has earned his ~1 fWAR/season valuation and a peer group of players who get one year contracts. I wasn't intending to make an argument, just explaining why I (and likely many others) don't use WAR when evaluating DHs as you implied you didn't know why it wasn't done for Yoshida more often. fWAR tends to not be very useful in determining value relative to other players who aren't DHs or DH equivalent players. Your argument that he may have an even lower fWAR if he plays the field only further illustrates the point. It's a very apples-vs-oranges conversation as both are fruit(or players) but you rarely want to substitute one for another. |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 17, 2024 19:57:49 GMT -5
Just conceptually speaking... it seems like you should have more WAR going to players who are involved in more defensive plays with uncertain outcomes, right? They're involved in more of the game. And DHs, of course, aren't involved in any defensive plays, so that would be a reason to grant them less WAR.
I don't know if the magnitude of the positional adjustment is right or wrong. Fangraphs has telegraphed that they're gonna reduce the negative positional adjustment soon, though. So Yoshida's WAR total might go up a bit. (But should our judgment of Yoshida's value really hinge so much on fangraphs' arcane positional adjustment accounting...?)
When using WAR as a barometer of 'value generated' then I agree that every play with an uncertain outcome would increase that player's running value calculation but would argue that every play has an uncertain outcome to varying degrees (since we're being theoretical). But when we add the 'replacement' aspect of the metric, it muddies the water as an additional positive defensive play in no way contributes to that player's value when converting him to a DH as that ability is no longer relevant. Is WAR trying to tell us how good a player is? How good a player was? Or how much better a player is/was than a minor league player who could be called up to replace them? It's a very fun and useful, but also a very messy metric, mostly due to how we use it. I think positional adjustments should be thrown out entirely. fWAR's are now 25 years old, and made sense at the time, but in an era where statcast can track every player throughout every game, there should be a better way to account for defensive value across positions. |
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Post by patford on Oct 17, 2024 20:17:00 GMT -5
Yoshida began very well in 2023. Then he faded badly and began 2024 badly. Later we learn he's had a bad shoulder. For how long we don't know. There is a certain type of athlete who doesn't talk about injuries and tries to play through situations where they would be better off getting right. For all we know Yoshida has been nagged by that shoulder since last year and felt he could grind through it. I don't think he ever mentioned having injured his thumb either. We'll see what he does going forward.
One thing I have learned from observation is guys who play hurt, don't complain and have poor results are criticized harshly by fans. Guys who are hurt and talk about it are called excuse makers by fans. Players who are hurt and miss time with non-surgical injuries are called soft.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 18, 2024 10:45:05 GMT -5
Friends, nobody is trading their one- or two-year bad contract for Yoshida's three remaining years.
To unload Yoshida the Red Sox will have to pay down a ton of the deal or include real prospect value. Add the shoulder surgery and I just don't see that happening.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Oct 18, 2024 11:40:16 GMT -5
Friends, nobody is trading their one- or two-year bad contract for Yoshida's three remaining years. To unload Yoshida the Red Sox will have to pay down a ton of the deal or include real prospect value. Add the shoulder surgery and I just don't see that happening. I dunno, may need 5 more pages across 2 threads to come to that conclusion |
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Post by chaimtime on Oct 18, 2024 11:44:59 GMT -5
Friends, nobody is trading their one- or two-year bad contract for Yoshida's three remaining years. To unload Yoshida the Red Sox will have to pay down a ton of the deal or include real prospect value. Add the shoulder surgery and I just don't see that happening. Swapping Yoshida’s money for a shorter term commitment would only be possible if you’re bringing back a contract that’s looking even more underwater than Yoshida’s, and at that point you’re probably just creating an even bigger roster fit issue. The challenge in trading him is finding the right balance of money eaten and prospect capital given up to move him on as cleanly as possible. My guess a month ago was that you could probably find a taker if you eat half the money and attach some lower-level guys with upside to him. Not great, but doable for a big market team with a strong farm system. In the wake of the surgery, I expect moving him on is just going to be too costly to be preferable to giving him another year to figure it out. As nice as it would be to free up some of that money and the roster spot, it seems that the cost of making his contract palatable enough to move is going to outweigh the team building benefits. If that’s the case, might as well see if he can give you a 120-125 wRC+ and a 1.5ish WAR season. Even if he stinks, it’s easier to find a taker for 2/36 than 3/54. If he’s any good, then you can probably save quite a bit of dead money and prospect capital. Seems like that’s less likely to backfire than attaching David Sandlin or eating Robbie Ray’s contract to move him would be. |
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