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Masataka Yoshida Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 16, 2024 10:38:12 GMT -5
Haven't seen the shoulder injury mentioned much, but it's being reported that he had surgery to repair a labral tear in his right (throwing) shoulder. I'm guessing this is why Yoshida was unable to play any outfield this season and Cora's responses to questioning always seemed elusive. My guess is that Yoshida was able to play through it and didn't want the attention/excuse of the injury. Not a doctor, but it seems that this type of injury is typically 4-6 weeks in a sling with another few weeks before conducting normal physical activity unencumbered. However for athletes, the full recovery can be as much as 6-12 months. Guessing he will be able to DH by the start of the season but may again be unable to play the outfield to start next season. www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/red-soxs-masataka-yoshida-undergoes-shoulder-surgery/
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 16, 2024 10:45:24 GMT -5
I think the reason Yoshida didn't get any PT in the OF last year was more or less because they always had 4-5 guys better than him at playing OF (Duran, Abreu, O'Neill, Rafaela, Refsnyder) and had little to do with his shoulder.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 16, 2024 10:55:19 GMT -5
Give the guy credit for playing through a torn labrum and the torn thumb muscle and still being a pretty solid hitter
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Post by rkarp on Oct 16, 2024 12:46:44 GMT -5
Give the guy credit for playing through a torn labrum and the torn thumb muscle and still being a pretty solid hitter absolutely not to be an asswipe about it, but what does this do to his trade market? or was it minimal anyways?
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Oct 16, 2024 12:49:40 GMT -5
The good news is we don't have any past incidents of the team downplaying the severity of a Yoshida injury or corresponding recovery time, so we can just assume this is correct
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 16, 2024 12:51:35 GMT -5
Give the guy credit for playing through a torn labrum and the torn thumb muscle and still being a pretty solid hitter absolutely not to be an asswipe about it, but what does this do to his trade market? or was it minimal anyways? It was probably minimal to begin with, doubt this really moves the needle all that much. The only avenues I saw for a Yoshida deal were either to deal him for another iffy contract or to eat a good portion of his deal and get nothing of consequence back. Probably is about the same now as it was before.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 16, 2024 13:59:33 GMT -5
There were multiple instances last season where Yoshida's absence from the lineup seemed nonsensical (at the time).
- one instance (8/30) had O'Neill (91 wRC+ vs RHP) start against the Tigers in a pivotal game over Yoshida (134 wRC+ vs RHP). - another (9/1) had Cora play Wong in the OF, for the first time in his career (MLB and MiLB), as a defensive replacement (after Jansen pinch hit) over Yoshida.
When asked by reporters, Cora's explanation was that Yoshida came into the year as the team's DH and that was his position, as if a guy who has played a dozen years as an outfielder would forget how to do it. This makes more sense if Cora was hiding the injury.
These were just two examples off the top of my head. Although it made sense to DH Yoshida most of the time, benching him when his bat was obviously needed hurt the team; but if he was unable to throw, it makes far more sense. At least it lessens my personal frustration with Cora's roster management.
For those who think that despite the bat Yoshida should never play defense again, consider that his poor -9 OAA in LF in 2023 doesn't look quite as bad compared to the combined -5 OAA of O'Neill/Refsnyder in 2024. LF at Fenway is tough.
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kwodes
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Post by kwodes on Oct 16, 2024 14:17:03 GMT -5
Give the guy credit for playing through a torn labrum and the torn thumb muscle and still being a pretty solid hitter absolutely not to be an asswipe about it, but what does this do to his trade market? or was it minimal anyways? it's probably non-existent now
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Oct 16, 2024 14:57:08 GMT -5
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Post by scottysmalls on Oct 16, 2024 15:03:00 GMT -5
Still weird things about some of the Yoshida non playing games (the Heineman one comes to mind) but I’ll choose to believe this explains it.
Also this probably severely dampens the chance of any kind of salary dump so at least that simplifies some of the offseason a little.
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Post by rkarp on Oct 16, 2024 15:39:52 GMT -5
absolutely not to be an asswipe about it, but what does this do to his trade market? or was it minimal anyways? It was probably minimal to begin with, doubt this really moves the needle all that much. The only avenues I saw for a Yoshida deal were either to deal him for another iffy contract or to eat a good portion of his deal and get nothing of consequence back. Probably is about the same now as it was before. I wasn't thinking about anything in return, more so a salary dump. does he have any takers or is his salary to onerous given the injury?
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 16, 2024 15:47:05 GMT -5
It was probably minimal to begin with, doubt this really moves the needle all that much. The only avenues I saw for a Yoshida deal were either to deal him for another iffy contract or to eat a good portion of his deal and get nothing of consequence back. Probably is about the same now as it was before. I wasn't thinking about anything in return, more so a salary dump. does he have any takers or is his salary to onerous given the injury? My guess is there would be a taker out there if the Red Sox were so inclined to eat enough of the contract. What that # would be who knows and the question at that point becomes at theoretical # is it even worth it anymore for the Sox to just dump him to free up a few million? If I were a betting man I'd say Yoshida will be on the Red Sox roster in 2025 though.
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Post by SlugLife on Oct 17, 2024 8:10:45 GMT -5
At this point, Yoshida's value is so low you might as well hold on to him and see if he can turn things around next year.
With that said, here are a few intriguing "bad contract" swaps out there:
CIN: 1B/3B/DH Jeimer Candelario, 2 years/$29 million left on current deal Candelario was always an odd fit in Cincinnati where the Reds have a surplus of controllable hitters, especially at the corners where Candelario plays. Great American Ballpark is supposed to be great for left-handed hitters, and Candelario makes a lot of sense for the Red Sox as a DH who can back up 3B and 1B. The Red Sox would probably need to send some cash and/or a player or two to make this deal work.
PHI: LF/DH Nick Castellanos, 2 years/$40 million left on current deal PHI: SP Taijuan Walker, 2 years/$36 million left on current deal I don't think this deal works without taking on both contracts, since the Phillies are unlikely to want to just swap Yoshida for Castellanos and Walker alone would leave a roster logjam in the lineup by adding Yoshida without subtracting one of Castellanos or Schwarber. For the Red Sox, it might be worth taking on the extra money to add a right-handed power hitter at DH and a starting pitcher not too far removed from league average results. Then again, I'm not sure how motivated the Phillies are to save money when they are clearly in a "win now" moment. Yoshida is a Bryce Harper fanboy and would probably pay for his own bus ticket to Philadelphia.
ARI: SP Jordan Montgomery, 1 year/$22.5 million left on current deal The Diamondbacks have a finite budget and seem eager to move on from Montgomery. They also used a left-handed DH for most of the season in Joc Pederson, so Yoshida could presumably fill that role. This deal makes sense if Arizona is focused on the 2025 bottom line and is willing to roll the dice on 2026 and 2027.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 17, 2024 9:34:31 GMT -5
I fail to see how the answer to Yoshida and his slightly underwater contract is to take back two even more underwater contracts in Castellanos and Walker. Candelario maybe makes some sense as does Montgomery but chances are Yoshida isn't going anywhere.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 17, 2024 10:07:22 GMT -5
The good news is we don't have any past incidents of the team downplaying the severity of a Yoshida injury or corresponding recovery time, so we can just assume this is correct TON is getting that QO no doubt now
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Post by patford on Oct 17, 2024 12:33:03 GMT -5
I fail to see how the answer to Yoshida and his slightly underwater contract is to take back two even more underwater contracts in Castellanos and Walker. Candelario maybe makes some sense as does Montgomery but chances are Yoshida isn't going anywhere. Yoshida was one of the best hitters on the team after he came back.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 17, 2024 12:37:14 GMT -5
I fail to see how the answer to Yoshida and his slightly underwater contract is to take back two even more underwater contracts in Castellanos and Walker. Candelario maybe makes some sense as does Montgomery but chances are Yoshida isn't going anywhere. Yoshida was one of the best hitters on the team after he came back. Right, no disagreement here the guy is a high caliber professional hitter when healthy and I have no issue with him on the roster next season. I definitely don't want to see him in some sort of crummy salary dump where they get a lesser hitter with a poor contract for him. I can see why some might think that if they can move him in order to use the salary elsewhere it wouldn't be a bad idea though.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 17, 2024 12:54:09 GMT -5
I fail to see how the answer to Yoshida and his slightly underwater contract is to take back two even more underwater contracts in Castellanos and Walker. Candelario maybe makes some sense as does Montgomery but chances are Yoshida isn't going anywhere. People keep mentally laundering "Yoshida is probably not worth his contract" into "Yoshida makes the team worse and they should get rid of him even for negative value." But he's been fine. There are even some things to like a lot - when physically right he tends to be a 130-140 wRC+ hitter, and he was literally the only hitter on the team this year who had a significantly better than average K rate while also being the only significantly clutch hitter on the team.
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Post by patford on Oct 17, 2024 13:25:18 GMT -5
Yoshida was one of the best hitters on the team after he came back. Right, no disagreement here the guy is a high caliber professional hitter when healthy and I have no issue with him on the roster next season. I definitely don't want to see him in some sort of crummy salary dump where they get a lesser hitter with a poor contract for him. I can see why some might think that if they can move him in order to use the salary elsewhere it wouldn't be a bad idea though. He does not have the kind of power usually associated with a DH but he hit some absolute bombs and should be able to hit 15-25 HR. If the team has enough power in other spots in the lineup that type of power is not a problem. Fans tend to form opinions early on and then when they come on strong establishing a social media record there are times when it seem like they would rather see a player fail than admit they were wrong. In any case I hope he proves his worth and agree just dumping him is a bad idea.
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Post by patford on Oct 17, 2024 13:28:41 GMT -5
I fail to see how the answer to Yoshida and his slightly underwater contract is to take back two even more underwater contracts in Castellanos and Walker. Candelario maybe makes some sense as does Montgomery but chances are Yoshida isn't going anywhere. People keep mentally laundering "Yoshida is probably not worth his contract" into "Yoshida makes the team worse and they should get rid of him even for negative value." But he's been fine. There are even some things to like a lot - when physically right he tends to be a 130-140 wRC+ hitter, and he was literally the only hitter on the team this year who had a significantly better than average K rate while also being the only significantly clutch hitter on the team. There was a point where in difficult pitching match ups he was the one guy on the team who was hitting. And that with a less than fully healthy shoulder.
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 17, 2024 13:41:27 GMT -5
People keep mentally laundering "Yoshida is probably not worth his contract" into "Yoshida makes the team worse and they should get rid of him even for negative value." But he's been fine. There are even some things to like a lot - when physically right he tends to be a 130-140 wRC+ hitter, and he was literally the only hitter on the team this year who had a significantly better than average K rate while also being the only significantly clutch hitter on the team. There was a point where in difficult pitching match ups he was the one guy on the team who was hitting. And that with a less than fully healthy shoulder. ....and thumb.
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Oct 17, 2024 16:32:59 GMT -5
Lots of Yoshida happy talk.
Looking at fWAR (something rarely done for Yoshida for some reason), I made a 2023-24 leaderboard with a minimum of 900 PA. Yoshida has 1001 for his career.
Yoshida ranks 131 with 1.4 fWAR.
The 131 might not sound so bad, but only 144 hitters met the criteria. It's not easy to have that little value while playing a lot. The players that are +/- 0.5 WAR from him might be instructive.
126. Tommy Pham, 1.8
Pham is at the journeyman stage of his career signing cheap one year deals and getting traded at the deadline.
127. Andrew McCutchen, 1.8
Also at the one year at a time stage of his career and seemingly only able to get deals with the Pirates.
128. Whit Merrifield, 1.7
A 2023 All Star! But also a guy in the one year deal and in season DFA'd stage of his career.
129. Nick Castellenos, 1.7
2 yr/40M left on a contract that some people think is worse than Yoshida's?
130. Spencer Torkelson, 1.6
Looking like a prospect bust and production bad enough that he was sent to the minors.
131. Yoshida, 1.4
Owed 3 yrs/54M and subject to heretofore mentioned happy talk.
132. Charlie Blackmon, 0.9
The end of the line into retirement.
It's true that Yoshida's 112 wRC+ edges out McCutchen's 110 for the best bat of the bunch. He's also quite a bit younger than everybody, but Torkelson. Although at 31 not exactly young.
These are Yoshida's fWAR peers. I don't expect any of the ones who are heading into free agency will be looking at anything but one year deals for short money.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 17, 2024 18:53:49 GMT -5
Lots of Yoshida happy talk. Looking at fWAR (something rarely done for Yoshida for some reason)I agree with the premise that Yoshida would be looking at less money, and possibly fewer years, if he were a FA - but to give context to the emboldened section, fWAR isn't as useful regarding DHs due to the positional adjustment for DH and the lack of players who hit at a high level and DH. Take a look at the amount of fWAR by position for that same period, 2023-2024, with (positional adjustments)SS: 189.1 (+7.5) CF: 155.4 (+2.5) C: 144.9 (+12.5) 2B: 138 (+2.5) 3B: 131.1 (+2.5) RF: 120.1 (-7.5) LF: 108.4 (-7.5) 1B: 96.6 (-12.5) DH: 46.1 (-17.5) - 14.3 fWAR from Ohtani alone As you can see, the amount of fWAR from ALL DHs is quite low, and aside from catcher the fWAR by position follows the positional adjustments precisely. So if you're making an apples-to-apples comparison, you would have to at least remove the positional adjustment (and at that point may as well be looking at wRC+ or similar statistic) as many of those players with similar WAR would be non-viable MLB players if they only played DH (and 'may' hit worse if asked to play DH). Also, hit-first players get paid much better than field-first players in both free agency and arbitration due to the shortage of supply of good hitters and the traditional means from which arbitration salaries are created - which then affect all other salaries by comparison. Here's a quote from Fangraphs on the subject from 2010: library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/positional-adjustment/
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Oct 17, 2024 19:08:52 GMT -5
Lots of Yoshida happy talk. Looking at fWAR (something rarely done for Yoshida for some reason)I agree with the premise that Yoshida would be looking at less money, and possibly fewer years, if he were a FA - but to give context to the emboldened section, fWAR isn't as useful regarding DHs due to the positional adjustment for DH and the lack of players who hit at a high level and DH. Take a look at the amount of fWAR by position for that same period, 2023-2024, with (positional adjustments)SS: 189.1 (+7.5) CF: 155.4 (+2.5) C: 144.9 (+12.5) 2B: 138 (+2.5) 3B: 131.1 (+2.5) RF: 120.1 (-7.5) LF: 108.4 (-7.5) 1B: 96.6 (-12.5) DH: 46.1 (-17.5) - 14.3 fWAR from Ohtani alone As you can see, the amount of fWAR from ALL DHs is quite low, and aside from catcher the fWAR by position follows the positional adjustments precisely. So if you're making an apples-to-apples comparison, you would have to at least remove the positional adjustment (and at that point may as well be looking at wRC+ or similar statistic) as many of those players with similar WAR would be non-viable MLB players if they only played DH (and 'may' hit worse if asked to play DH). Also, hit-first players get paid much better than field-first players in both free agency and arbitration due to the shortage of supply of good hitters and the traditional means from which arbitration salaries are created - which then affect all other salaries by comparison. Here's a quote from Fangraphs on the subject from 2010: library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/positional-adjustment/The problem with that argument is that Yoshida had more defensive value as a DH in 2024 than as a LF in 2023. 2023: DEF: -18.6 over 580 PA 2024: DEF: -10.9 over 421 PA Pro-rate that out to to 580 PA worth of playing time and it would be a -15.0 equivalent. You can't strip out the positional adjustment and just go with wRC+ when the player has demonstrated he's such a bad fielder that his bad fielding outweighs the DH penalty. It was frustrating at times that the Sox refused to use Yoshida in the field, but arguably the strategy saved them a few runs. Whether as a DH or a LF, Yoshida has earned his ~1 fWAR/season valuation and a peer group of players who get one year contracts.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 17, 2024 19:14:55 GMT -5
Lots of Yoshida happy talk. Looking at fWAR (something rarely done for Yoshida for some reason)I agree with the premise that Yoshida would be looking at less money, and possibly fewer years, if he were a FA - but to give context to the emboldened section, fWAR isn't as useful regarding DHs due to the positional adjustment for DH and the lack of players who hit at a high level and DH. Take a look at the amount of fWAR by position for that same period, 2023-2024, with (positional adjustments)SS: 189.1 (+7.5) CF: 155.4 (+2.5) C: 144.9 (+12.5) 2B: 138 (+2.5) 3B: 131.1 (+2.5) RF: 120.1 (-7.5) LF: 108.4 (-7.5) 1B: 96.6 (-12.5) DH: 46.1 (-17.5) - 14.3 fWAR from Ohtani alone As you can see, the amount of fWAR from ALL DHs is quite low, and aside from catcher the fWAR by position follows the positional adjustments precisely. So if you're making an apples-to-apples comparison, you would have to at least remove the positional adjustment (and at that point may as well be looking at wRC+ or similar statistic) as many of those players with similar WAR would be non-viable MLB players if they only played DH (and 'may' hit worse if asked to play DH). Also, hit-first players get paid much better than field-first players in both free agency and arbitration due to the shortage of supply of good hitters and the traditional means from which arbitration salaries are created - which then affect all other salaries by comparison. Here's a quote from Fangraphs on the subject from 2010: library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/positional-adjustment/Just conceptually speaking... it seems like you should have more WAR going to players who are involved in more defensive plays with uncertain outcomes, right? They're involved in more of the game. And DHs, of course, aren't involved in any defensive plays, so that would be a reason to grant them less WAR.
I don't know if the magnitude of the positional adjustment is right or wrong. Fangraphs has telegraphed that they're gonna reduce the negative positional adjustment soon, though. So Yoshida's WAR total might go up a bit. (But should our judgment of Yoshida's value really hinge so much on fangraphs' arcane positional adjustment accounting...?)
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