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Grissom Earns his Own Thread!
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Post by bluechip on Oct 18, 2024 10:17:43 GMT -5
You can't so that without being a certain degree of very good. Chris Shelton: Apr 3 to Apr 8, 2006, 5 games, 22 PAs, 14 hits, 1walk, 2 k, 1 hbp,2 doubles, 2 triples, 5 home runs, .700/.727/.1750. Rest of the season 110 games, 390 PA, .249/.318/.394 |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 18, 2024 10:35:53 GMT -5
Grissom getting a thread so we don't need to continue to bump the Sale trade thread - great.
Discussion of what we can expect out of Grissom going forward - Yay message boards and respectful internet discourse.
The idea a five game sample can ever be meaningful in any kind of predictive way - no, let's just all move on.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Oct 18, 2024 11:06:38 GMT -5
If Campbell trumps Grissom in the Spring Training MLB 2B Competition & Grammar Jamboree, is it likely that we see Grissom in different positions in Worcester (LF, 3B) like the Braves were doing when they realized he was blocked by Albies?
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Post by incandenza on Oct 18, 2024 11:20:55 GMT -5
Grissom's xwOBA over that five-game stretch from 9/24 through 9/30 was 38th in baseball over that five-day stretch (min. 10 PA). Here are the list of players ahead of him: Rivera, Emmanuel .725 -- 10 PAs Judge, Aaron .623 Suzuki, Seiya .573 Ohtani, Shohei .559 Castellanos, Nick .558 RamÃrez, José .551 Kavadas, Niko .533 -- 16 PAs Santana, Carlos .529 Bregman, Alex .515 Herrera, Iván .504 Brennan, Will .481 -- 10 PAs Duffy, Matt .479 -- 10 PAs Merrill, Jackson .479 Hernández, Enrique .477 -- 20 PAs Martinez, J.D. .474 Smith, Will .463 Bailey, Patrick .462 --17 PAs Raley, Luke .46 Schuemann, Max .458 -- 12 PAs Marte, Ketel .457 Harris II, Michael .446 Encarnacion, Jerar .446 -- 12 PAs Kelly, Carson .438 -- 12 PAs McCann, James .438 -- 12 PAs Lowe, Nathaniel .437 Buxton, Byron .435 Taylor, Chris .434 -- 12 PAs Soto, Juan .429 Marte, Noelvi .427 -- 13 PAs Blackmon, Charlie .425 -- 24 PAs Dezenzo, Zach .424 -- 10 PAs Toglia, Michael .424 -- 22 PAs Nootbaar, Lars .422 Pages, Andy .421 -- 16 PAs
Lux, Gavin .421 Conforto, Michael .419 Holliday, Jackson .416 A lot of those players are very good or excellent. Some of those players are sometimes good if rather streaky. Some of them are kinda crummy hitters who had a good week. I am going to need more evidence of the claim that the effect size is huge. By my count, 20 of these guys are indisputably good hitters.
Of the other 17, the ones with 13 or more PAs are:
Kavadas (the next Joey Votto) Bailey
Toglia (a young guy who himself might turn out to be good) Pages (a top prospect)
Blackmon (guy playing the last games of his career at home)
Kiké
The last four were all involved in the LAD-COL series in Colorado during those dates. The Dodgers scores 26 runs in that series so it's doubtful Kiké and Pages outperformed their team's xwOBA by nearly as much as Grissom did.
I'd call this some circumstantial evidence in favor of the effect size thesis. The list gets iffier toward the bottom, which if anything does suggest effect size matters here; it's not a coincidence that Judge, Shohei, and Ramirez are all near the top of the list, along with some other very good hitters. But it also calls into question whether the effect size of Grissom's .416 specifically is that significant.
(But I would be curious to hear eric's take on what this tells us about Niko Kavadas...)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 18, 2024 11:43:49 GMT -5
If Campbell trumps Grissom in the Spring Training MLB 2B Competition & Grammar Jamboree, is it likely that we see Grissom in different positions in Worcester (LF, 3B) like the Braves were doing when they realized he was blocked by Albies? Fwiw, while he did this in Puerto Rico that winter (6 at 3B, 7 in LF), he only played the middle infield stateside for them in 2023. My understanding is this was likely in large part posturing so it didn't look like they HAD to trade him. As for this coming season, who knows? If he wins the 2B job out of camp, then no. If he loses to Campbell or someone else, why not? |
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Post by incandenza on Oct 18, 2024 11:58:24 GMT -5
It is hard for me to picture Grissom as adequate at 3B and it is hard for me to picture the Red Sox having roster space for him to play LF.
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Post by bishop on Oct 18, 2024 13:40:59 GMT -5
His arm strength doesn't seem to be an issue for 3B and it's not like the bar from our regular 3B is elite. (To Chris's point while he was blocked at 2B by Albies he was also blocked by Riley at 3B in ATL). Someone from Grissom/Story/Mayer/Campbell/Hamilton should end up being that backup unless Meidroth is added to the 40 man and I'd probably rather see Story at a MIF position even if Mayer is given the SS job. Team was content running Reyes, Romy, Sogard out there.
LF would suppose a Refsnyder retirement and a trade (and maybe not of Abreu since Grissom would be a natural platoon partner with him), or at least a delayed Yoshida recovery/other OF injuries - while the injury big has killed us in the IF lately it's largely left the core defensive OF's unscathed, that's not always going to be the case.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 18, 2024 13:53:14 GMT -5
By my count, 20 of these guys are indisputably good hitters. Of the other 17, the ones with 13 or more PAs are:
Kavadas (the next Joey Votto) Bailey
Toglia (a young guy who himself might turn out to be good) Pages (a top prospect)
Blackmon (guy playing the last games of his career at home)
Kiké The last four were all involved in the LAD-COL series in Colorado during those dates. The Dodgers scores 26 runs in that series so it's doubtful Kiké and Pages outperformed their team's xwOBA by nearly as much as Grissom did. I'd call this some circumstantial evidence in favor of the effect size thesis. The list gets iffier toward the bottom, which if anything does suggest effect size matters here; it's not a coincidence that Judge, Shohei, and Ramirez are all near the top of the list, along with some other very good hitters. But it also calls into question whether the effect size of Grissom's .416 specifically is that significant. (But I would be curious to hear eric's take on what this tells us about Niko Kavadas...)
So, part of the issue is that, with this having been the last week of the season, there are at least a few players on this list who may or may not yet prove to be good. So, I picked a week at random in 2022 in order to get a better sense. I swear to god I did not cherry pick or try to find a week intentionally that would disprove the point. I went to the week of June 6-12, 2022. The top hitter with 13+ PA that week? Christian Bethanourt, with a .729 xwOBA. He went 9 for 18 in five games that week. Player, xwOBA(week), wOBA since, xwOBA since Bethancourt, Christian 0.729 0.273 0.269 Trout, Mike 0.673 0.381 0.388 Acuña Jr., Ronald 0.563 0.376 0.41 Correa, Carlos 0.559 0.345 0.347 Murphy, Sean 0.554 0.342 0.359 Stanton, Giancarlo 0.540 0.309 0.332 Judge, Aaron 0.503 0.457 0.475 Cruz, Nelson 0.496 0.269 0.297 Taylor, Michael A. 0.479 0.277 0.282 Davis, J.D. 0.473 0.319 0.317 Santander, Anthony 0.468 0.341 0.333 Santana, Carlos 0.463 0.324 0.328 Smith, Will 0.457 0.340 0.341 Gordon, Nick 0.455 0.292 0.300 Witt Jr., Bobby 0.455 0.361 0.374 Marsh, Brandon 0.445 0.330 0.312 Cooper, Garrett 0.444 0.298 0.320 Polanco, Jorge 0.443 0.317 0.332 Brantley, Michael 0.442 0.316 0.321 Contreras, William 0.440 0.356 0.345 Guerrero Jr., Vladimir 0.437 0.365 0.38 Torres, Gleyber 0.437 0.328 0.328 Ohtani, Shohei 0.434 0.420 0.427 Yepez, Juan 0.434 0.308 0.290 Nevin, Tyler 0.432 0.268 0.291 Harper, Bryce 0.43 0.372 0.372 García Jr., Luis 0.427 0.308 0.314 Larnach, Trevor 0.425 0.320 0.337 Burger, Jake 0.424 0.333 0.343 Schwarber, Kyle 0.424 0.358 0.373 Tucker, Kyle 0.42 0.374 0.377 Contreras, Willson 0.418 0.354 0.361 García, Adolis 0.418 0.325 0.332 Bichette, Bo 0.417 0.331 0.336 Raleigh, Cal 0.416 0.328 0.337 Apologies for not charting this for readability. Here are the links: - baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2022%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=2022-06-06&game_date_lt=2022-06-12&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&group_by=name&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=10&sort_col=xwoba&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_pa=on&chk_stats_hits=on&chk_stats_xba=on&chk_stats_xslg=on&chk_stats_xwoba=on#results- baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2024%7C2023%7C2022%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=2022-06-13&game_date_lt=2024-09-30&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&batters_lookup%5B%5D=660670&batters_lookup%5B%5D=542194&batters_lookup%5B%5D=666182&batters_lookup%5B%5D=488726&batters_lookup%5B%5D=669394&batters_lookup%5B%5D=661388&batters_lookup%5B%5D=575929&batters_lookup%5B%5D=643265&batters_lookup%5B%5D=621043&batters_lookup%5B%5D=443558&batters_lookup%5B%5D=605204&batters_lookup%5B%5D=666969&batters_lookup%5B%5D=671277&batters_lookup%5B%5D=624503&batters_lookup%5B%5D=665489&batters_lookup%5B%5D=547180&batters_lookup%5B%5D=592450&batters_lookup%5B%5D=663616&batters_lookup%5B%5D=669016&batters_lookup%5B%5D=669221&batters_lookup%5B%5D=663527&batters_lookup%5B%5D=660271&batters_lookup%5B%5D=593871&batters_lookup%5B%5D=663728&batters_lookup%5B%5D=467793&batters_lookup%5B%5D=623993&batters_lookup%5B%5D=656941&batters_lookup%5B%5D=669257&batters_lookup%5B%5D=519317&batters_lookup%5B%5D=572191&batters_lookup%5B%5D=650402&batters_lookup%5B%5D=545361&batters_lookup%5B%5D=663656&batters_lookup%5B%5D=677951&batters_lookup%5B%5D=660766&hfFlag=&metric_1=&group_by=name&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=10&sort_col=xwoba&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_pa=on&chk_stats_hits=on&chk_stats_woba=on&chk_stats_xwoba=on#results |
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Post by incandenza on Oct 18, 2024 14:37:21 GMT -5
By my count, 20 of these guys are indisputably good hitters. Of the other 17, the ones with 13 or more PAs are:
Kavadas (the next Joey Votto) Bailey
Toglia (a young guy who himself might turn out to be good) Pages (a top prospect)
Blackmon (guy playing the last games of his career at home)
Kiké The last four were all involved in the LAD-COL series in Colorado during those dates. The Dodgers scores 26 runs in that series so it's doubtful Kiké and Pages outperformed their team's xwOBA by nearly as much as Grissom did. I'd call this some circumstantial evidence in favor of the effect size thesis. The list gets iffier toward the bottom, which if anything does suggest effect size matters here; it's not a coincidence that Judge, Shohei, and Ramirez are all near the top of the list, along with some other very good hitters. But it also calls into question whether the effect size of Grissom's .416 specifically is that significant. (But I would be curious to hear eric's take on what this tells us about Niko Kavadas...)
So, part of the issue is that, with this having been the last week of the season, there are at least a few players on this list who may or may not yet prove to be good. So, I picked a week at random in 2022 in order to get a better sense. I swear to god I did not cherry pick or try to find a week intentionally that would disprove the point. I went to the week of June 6-12, 2022. The top hitter with 13+ PA that week? Christian Bethanourt, with a .729 xwOBA. He went 9 for 18 in five games that week. Player, xwOBA(week), wOBA since, xwOBA since Bethancourt, Christian 0.729 0.273 0.269Trout, Mike 0.673 0.381 0.388 Acuña Jr., Ronald 0.563 0.376 0.41 Correa, Carlos 0.559 0.345 0.347 Murphy, Sean 0.554 0.342 0.359 Stanton, Giancarlo 0.540 0.309 0.332 Judge, Aaron 0.503 0.457 0.475 Cruz, Nelson 0.496 0.269 0.297 Taylor, Michael A. 0.479 0.277 0.282Davis, J.D. 0.473 0.319 0.317 Santander, Anthony 0.468 0.341 0.333 Santana, Carlos 0.463 0.324 0.328 Smith, Will 0.457 0.340 0.341 Gordon, Nick 0.455 0.292 0.300Witt Jr., Bobby 0.455 0.361 0.374 Marsh, Brandon 0.445 0.330 0.312 Cooper, Garrett 0.444 0.298 0.320 Polanco, Jorge 0.443 0.317 0.332 Brantley, Michael 0.442 0.316 0.321 Contreras, William 0.440 0.356 0.345 Guerrero Jr., Vladimir 0.437 0.365 0.38 Torres, Gleyber 0.437 0.328 0.328 Ohtani, Shohei 0.434 0.420 0.427 Yepez, Juan 0.434 0.308 0.290 Nevin, Tyler 0.432 0.268 0.291Harper, Bryce 0.43 0.372 0.372 García Jr., Luis 0.427 0.308 0.314 Larnach, Trevor 0.425 0.320 0.337 Burger, Jake 0.424 0.333 0.343 Schwarber, Kyle 0.424 0.358 0.373 Tucker, Kyle 0.42 0.374 0.377 Contreras, Willson 0.418 0.354 0.361 García, Adolis 0.418 0.325 0.332 Bichette, Bo 0.417 0.331 0.336 Raleigh, Cal 0.416 0.328 0.337 That's a list of really good hitters! I bolded the guys who stink (and didn't count some who were at the tail end of their peak and have stunk since, like Cooper and Cruz, since that's not the sort of case we're worried about here), and consider Yepez a TBD. The #1 guy happens to be a comical outlier, so clearly it's not literally impossible for a bad hitter to have a good week. Which I think we all knew.
But basically this list shows that a hitter who has this good a week is very probably going to be a good hitter going forward, with maybe 4-5 out of 30+ relevant cases (12-15% or so) being exceptions. A caveat would be that Grissom would slide in at the bottom of this list, so it's a generous comparison on that score.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Oct 19, 2024 16:33:02 GMT -5
we all remember the start of Ted Cox’ long Hall of Fame career, when he hit 362.393.500.893 in not five but 13 games. Phil Plantier in 1991: 52 G, 174 PA, 2.5 fgWAR, .331/.420/.615 for a 175 wRC+. He hung around the ML until 1997 and finished with a career total of 3.1 fgWAR. I'm sure you can dig up others too, but in the big picture they are the exception that proves the rule. I'm going to come at this from the opposite direction. Scott Cooper never showed me anything other than being steady at best but never had anything resembling a hot streak. Even after he was named an All-Star and I still predicted that would be the hi-light of his career, it was. Hot streaks, especially for younger players can suggest this player is capable of at least approaching their own ceiling. |
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Oct 19, 2024 16:48:36 GMT -5
His arm strength doesn't seem to be an issue for 3B and it's not like the bar from our regular 3B is elite. (To Chris's point while he was blocked at 2B by Albies he was also blocked by Riley at 3B in ATL). Someone from Grissom/Story/Mayer/Campbell/Hamilton should end up being that backup unless Meidroth is added to the 40 man and I'd probably rather see Story at a MIF position even if Mayer is given the SS job. Team was content running Reyes, Romy, Sogard out there. LF would suppose a Refsnyder retirement and a trade (and maybe not of Abreu since Grissom would be a natural platoon partner with him), or at least a delayed Yoshida recovery/other OF injuries - while the injury big has killed us in the IF lately it's largely left the core defensive OF's unscathed, that's not always going to be the case. Story if he's not on the DL will be playing either SS very likely or 2B less likely. Hold onto assets as long as you can. I'd be very surprised, barring injuries, to see Mayer playing in Boston before September. He's not had a single at bat in AAA and I'm sure they want to see him make it through a season before committing to him being a key part of the team going forward. This asset does not need to be rushed. Hold onto assets as long as you can. Tomorrows problem may be worse than todays. When you wait the original problem could resolve itself. Have to weigh all the options and the weight of each option. Edit: I mentioned a few months back that their are two contracts that are anchors, in the bad sense of the word, on the team. Story and Yoshida. Neither is tradeable. The earliest we may be able to move Yoshida is this trade deadline when a certain percentage of his remaining salary could be subsidized to the point a trade could be possibly. this assumes he performs well and he's healthy. |
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Post by manfred on Oct 21, 2024 11:53:03 GMT -5
It is hard for me to picture Grissom as adequate at 3B and it is hard for me to picture the Red Sox having roster space for him to play LF. To this point, I’m not worried he can be a really good offensive second baseman. I *am* worried he can be a passable defensive second baseman. |
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Post by taiwansox on Oct 21, 2024 14:22:17 GMT -5
It is hard for me to picture Grissom as adequate at 3B and it is hard for me to picture the Red Sox having roster space for him to play LF. To this point, I’m not worried he can be a really good offensive second baseman. I *am* worried he can be a passable defensive second baseman. Agreed, I think he should at least work out at 1B/OF. We’ve acquired a few high contact/low power, but poor defense players with Yoshida, Grissom, and it’s not idea for our roster composition… |
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Oct 21, 2024 16:26:42 GMT -5
ericmvan posting about Grissom's five games:
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 22, 2024 3:15:34 GMT -5
Inspired by James Dunne's effort, I decided to do it accurately. 1) The Sox were one of only 7 teams whose last five scheduled games began on the 24th. 19 teams had their off day on Monday rather than Thursday and started on the 25th. The Astros started from the 23rd and the Guardians, Braves, and Mets started on the 22nd, thanks to rain. You need four different initial data sets.
2) It's true that Statcast has no built-in minimum for 15 PA, which I'm sure is why James used 10 as his mini. But given that Grissom had 18, you really have to limit hitters to 15+ PA, an average of 3 per game. That's east to do: copy all the data, sort by PA descending, and erase all those 14 and less.
3) In a sample size of 5 games, there is a huge confound: opposing pitcher quality. You have to adjust for that, as best you can.
What I did was take the team xwOBA from 8/1 to 9/29 and compare it to the 5-game number. The difference is a your approximation for opposing pitching. For instance, the Reds were .300 over the last 2 months but .282 the last five days, so we bump them up .018 (which is the median amount of adjustment, up or down). I alluded to this in the original post -- the team as a whole was .251 in the five games. Overall they were .307, so we add .056 Results As a rule of thumb, you're going to see a small difference from hitter to hitter as you move up, and then near the top you start to see bigger ones. My hitters who are ranked #20 to #9 average .003 of difference between them and the next guy, with a max of .006. In the top 8 the average difference is .014 and the max is .028. They are the guys who have possibly done something meaningful.
Is it? With two exceptions, all of the 8 had season with wRC+ of 114 or better. Michel Harriss had 99, but that was 80 until he spent 2 months on the IL, and 127 after he returned in mid-August, which brought his 3-year career back to 117.
And then there the #7 guy with 28. That does stand out, no? Top 20 and concluding comments next up ... my laptop is doing crazy things.
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Post by rkarp on Oct 22, 2024 6:52:54 GMT -5
I love Campbell and his potential.
that said, the RS inf depth, and Mayers injury perhaps have Campbell as that high end/low salaried chip to obtain a TOR SP.
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 22, 2024 8:35:54 GMT -5
I love Campbell and his potential. that said, the RS inf depth, and Mayers injury perhaps have Campbell as that high end/low salaried chip to obtain a TOR SP. No thanks |
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 22, 2024 9:42:09 GMT -5
This is a friendly request to stop using "TOR" as top of rotation. TOR is Toronto. Ace is as many letters as TOR.
Following up on this, this is also a friendly request to not get into arguments over what is an ace.
EDIT: However, I would agree that, as much as I like him, Vaughn Grissom is not an ace.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 22, 2024 10:55:49 GMT -5
But he might be a really good #2 or 3 … in the lineup
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 22, 2024 11:19:49 GMT -5
Ricky Vaughn Grissom.
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Post by blizzards39 on Oct 26, 2024 19:02:58 GMT -5
I love Campbell and his potential. that said, the RS inf depth, and Mayers injury perhaps have Campbell as that high end/low salaried chip to obtain a TOR SP. Unless sox feel real different about the prospects than others do it dosnt make alot of sence to trade your RH hitters away when already looking to add RH. Mayer, Casas, Abrau. Im pretty sure 1 of these guys will be gone. Id love to keep them all but? Why i dknt see either campbell or Grissom getting moved |
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