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Grissom Earns his Own Thread!
ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 17, 2024 9:30:03 GMT -5
Sox offense xwOBA, final five games, Grissom excluded: .251 (150 PA).
(wOBA was also .251. But individual wOBA numbers were all over the place; you might remember Story getting a bunch of lucky hits -- compare his .395 to his xwOBA below.)
xwOBA of regulars players (12 PA+) other than Grissom:
.279 Casas (20 PA) .259 Duran (21) .258 Story (17) .234 Yoshida (12) .232 Abreu (16) .227 Sogard (14) .220 Gonzales (12) .174 Wong (13)
Grissom .416 (18 PA). That's .137 better than runner-up Casas, who is just .105 better than the worst regular. Griss was in a planet of his own. (His wOBA was .461.)
Yes, the sample size is very small, but the effect size is huge. Bill James had a favorite example of how one game could be significant -- Clemens' 15 K, 0 BB complete game late in his rookie season (8/21/84 vs. the Royals). You can't so that without being a certain degree of very good.
In our case, the conclusion is easy: Grissom could not do this without being more or less as good believed when we traded for him.
It's going to be very interesting.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 17, 2024 9:32:46 GMT -5
I'm cautiously optimistic on Grissom, there is a good hitter there if he can stay healthy but the only thing I'm taking from an 18 PA sample size is that hey there is hopefully something for him to build on there after a tough season.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 17, 2024 9:51:10 GMT -5
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Oct 17, 2024 10:00:17 GMT -5
I thought about Grissom a lot while listening to the Abraham podcast. He really only had 7-8 weeks after being traded to acclimate to the Red Sox hitting program before going through his perpetual rehab starting in mid March. I'd love to know if they have him working in Fort Myers in a bat speed program this off-season.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Oct 17, 2024 10:02:08 GMT -5
In our case, the conclusion is easy: Grissom could not do this without being more or less as good believed when we traded for him.
Come on man lol |
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 17, 2024 10:31:23 GMT -5
In our case, the conclusion is easy: Grissom could not do this without being more or less as good believed when we traded for him.
Come on man lol we all remember the start of Ted Cox’ long Hall of Fame career, when he hit 362.393.500.893 in not five but 13 games. |
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Post by awalkinthepark on Oct 17, 2024 11:07:44 GMT -5
Agree with others, I wouldn't read too much into Grissom's September, but I also wouldn't read too much into his 2024 as a whole either, which a lot of fans have done. I don't think your opinion on him should have changed much from when they acquired him last offseason. He still has a really nice skillet and I'm interested to see how they handle him going forward, particularly in the context of Campbell's breakout. Good bat to ball, good approach, seems like a prime candidate for the Sox bat speed program.
If Campbell gets moved this offseason I think that is a vote of confidence in Grissom.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 17, 2024 12:04:21 GMT -5
In the first place, Eric’s look at a finally healthy Grissom’s small sample does reflect the reason the Sox traded for him. He has a history of being a good hitter and we can reasonably expect/hope he will be a contender for the 2B job in ST.
In the second place other contenders will include Campbell, Hamilton, more. It’s all good news.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 17, 2024 12:17:26 GMT -5
we all remember the start of Ted Cox’ long Hall of Fame career, when he hit 362.393.500.893 in not five but 13 games. .392 BABIP and .138 ISO, though, so there's a good chance his xwOBA would not have been impressive.
I don't think eric's conclusion is unreasonable here. Yes it was a tiny sample size, as acknowledged, but by the eyeball test Grissom was smoking the ball - something he hadn't come close to doing with the Red Sox prior to that. And it followed his smoking the ball in AAA for a while, following a long torpor. So I think the late season developments with Grissom were significant.
(And general point regarding other comments: if someone says "yes, the sample size is small, but the effect size is big enough to be meaningful," then saying "but the sample size is small" is not actually responding to their argument.)
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Post by carmenfanzone on Oct 17, 2024 12:32:10 GMT -5
In my view the digest reason to be optimistic about Grissom is hs 2022 stint in the majors when he slashed.291/.353/.440 in 140 at bats with the Braves. His last month with Wooster and few at bats with the Red Sox seems to show that when healthy he can still hit.
To me, however, the biggest concern about Grissom is whether his defense at second will be good enough. I still have no idea about that.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Oct 17, 2024 12:37:03 GMT -5
we all remember the start of Ted Cox’ long Hall of Fame career, when he hit 362.393.500.893 in not five but 13 games. .392 BABIP and .138 ISO, though, so there's a good chance his xwOBA would not have been impressive.
I don't think eric's conclusion is unreasonable here. Yes it was a tiny sample size, as acknowledged, but by the eyeball test Grissom was smoking the ball - something he hadn't come close to doing with the Red Sox prior to that. And it followed his smoking the ball in AAA for a while, following a long torpor. So I think the late season developments with Grissom were significant.
(And general point regarding other comments: if someone says "yes, the sample size is small, but the effect size is big enough to be meaningful," then saying "but the sample size is small" is not actually responding to their argument.)
What is the basis for the effect size being huge, though? It *could* be, but to act as if that is the definitive conclusion here is pretty ludicrous. |
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Post by incandenza on Oct 17, 2024 12:47:20 GMT -5
.392 BABIP and .138 ISO, though, so there's a good chance his xwOBA would not have been impressive.
I don't think eric's conclusion is unreasonable here. Yes it was a tiny sample size, as acknowledged, but by the eyeball test Grissom was smoking the ball - something he hadn't come close to doing with the Red Sox prior to that. And it followed his smoking the ball in AAA for a while, following a long torpor. So I think the late season developments with Grissom were significant.
(And general point regarding other comments: if someone says "yes, the sample size is small, but the effect size is big enough to be meaningful," then saying "but the sample size is small" is not actually responding to their argument.)
What is the basis for the effect size being huge, though? It *could* be, but to act as if that is the definitive conclusion here is pretty ludicrous. That's a fair question. I'd be curious to hear eric's answer.
I, personally, don't know how math works. But I can say subjectively that I was starting to be pretty worried about Grissom given how he was struggling even in AAA. The way that he recovered at the end of the season made me feel a whole lot better, and did more or less return me to what my view of Grissom had been when they acquired him.
If it turned out that was just a mirage I would've been concerned again. But eric's numbers show that the subjective sense was not unjustified. I think that's meaningful.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 17, 2024 19:14:33 GMT -5
we all remember the start of Ted Cox’ long Hall of Fame career, when he hit 362.393.500.893 in not five but 13 games. Phil Plantier in 1991: 52 G, 174 PA, 2.5 fgWAR, .331/.420/.615 for a 175 wRC+. He hung around the ML until 1997 and finished with a career total of 3.1 fgWAR. |
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Post by Darwin's Curve on Oct 17, 2024 20:07:28 GMT -5
Yes, the sample size is very small, but the effect size is huge. The ladies don't really fall for this anymore. I don't think eric's conclusion is unreasonable here. The conclusion that Grissom has the track record he had when we traded for him is so unexceptional as to be reasonable; nothing has changed. To suggest a five game hot stretch in junk-time somehow proves that is ludicrous. At best it suggests he's still physically capable of hitting the baseball. That's good to know, but whether his hot stretch lasted twice as long or never happened at all, he's still the same young player (with the same body of work) who we traded for. |
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 17, 2024 20:12:44 GMT -5
Good grief
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Oct 17, 2024 20:14:47 GMT -5
I keep going back to this and thinking about how much we’d all laugh at this if a Yankees fan did this with Dominguez or something.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 17, 2024 21:01:43 GMT -5
I had written Grissom's season off as both lost and meaningless well before his final five games. I enjoyed watching him as the season came to a close but it didn't do anything to increase my hope that he can be an impact bat at 2B.
If he had Grebeck-ed in those final five games, that would not have done anything to quash my hope that he'll work out nicely for us. Either way, I'd be looking forward to seeing what he can do with a fresh start in 2025.
The ST competition between him and Campbell will be interesting.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 17, 2024 21:15:35 GMT -5
It should be noted that Grissom had been smoking the ball for about 3 weeks at AAA before his callup. The man can hit, absolutely no doubt in my mind. Starting 2B, YMMV.
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Post by patford on Oct 17, 2024 21:25:31 GMT -5
In the first place, Eric’s look at a finally healthy Grissom’s small sample does reflect the reason the Sox traded for him. He has a history of being a good hitter and we can reasonably expect/hope he will be a contender for the 2B job in ST. In the second place other contenders will include Campbell, Hamilton, more. It’s all good news. That's the key. He had a record of being a really good hitter. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 17, 2024 21:27:03 GMT -5
Not advocating or suggesting but there's been some noise about trading Casas. If that happened, an infield of Devers 1B, Grissom 2B, Story SS and Campbell at 3B would be at least as good as what's projected defensively and go a long way to solving the RH hitting situation.
The downgrade at 1B would be more than made up for by the upgrade at 3B at least with team metrics.
Just sayin'
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 18, 2024 6:06:11 GMT -5
The methodology is hot air, but the conclusion is something I agree with, Grissom will hit. Of course he has a lengthy track record of doing so in the minors so reasonable logic dictates he'll eventually hit in the majors.
Al that 5 game stretch does is offer encouragement as it follows the heels of a torrid AAA performance in September. Well, he was healthy for an extended stretch finally and it showed but jumping to conclusions about a 5 game stretch doesnt necessarily mean anything.
I remember the 15k 0 BB game Clemens had against KC in 1984. All it meant was that he had it in him, the ability to do it. Didnt mean he was consistently going to do it, though. Big difference. Clemens soon would get that consistency but you cant look at a single game or a SSS and ASSUME that will be the new norm.
So I disagree with Eric's flashy methodology but do believe based on along track record and finally some extended good health theres good reason to think if given an extended opportunity Grissom will hit well.
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 18, 2024 6:11:44 GMT -5
Not advocating or suggesting but there's been some noise about trading Casas. If that happened, an infield of Devers 1B, Grissom 2B, Story SS and Campbell at 3B would be at least as good as what's projected defensively and go a long way to solving the RH hitting situation. The downgrade at 1B would be more than made up for by the upgrade at 3B at least with team metrics. Just sayin' I believe there is some question of Campbell's arm strength and perhaps overall defensive prowess.... If so, 3B? Same with Grissom. At the same time it would a downer to me to not play both Grissom and Campbell. Watching Grissom at the plate, he passed my eye test....looked confident, in control and polished. I suspect a trade will open things up. But, on a team relatively short on power and possibly letting TON go, I can't see the Sox trading the popular Casas as well. |
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Post by rickasadoorian on Oct 18, 2024 8:54:59 GMT -5
I remember someone saying Cutter Coffey's stretch earlier this year couldn't be random either. Players go on ridiculous streaks sometimes.
I like how Grissom finished the year in AAA so here's hoping but a 5 game stretch means nothing.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 18, 2024 9:25:51 GMT -5
Grissom's xwOBA over that five-game stretch from 9/24 through 9/30 was 38th in baseball over that stretch (min. 10 PA). Here are the list of players ahead of him:
Rivera, Emmanuel .725
Judge, Aaron .623
Suzuki, Seiya .573
Ohtani, Shohei .559
Castellanos, Nick .558
Ramírez, José .551
Kavadas, Niko .533
Santana, Carlos .529
Bregman, Alex .515
Herrera, Iván .504
Brennan, Will .481
Duffy, Matt .479
Merrill, Jackson .479
Hernández, Enrique .477
Martinez, J.D. .474
Smith, Will .463
Bailey, Patrick .462
Raley, Luke .46
Schuemann, Max .458
Marte, Ketel .457
Harris II, Michael .446
Encarnacion, Jerar .446
Kelly, Carson .438
McCann, James .438
Lowe, Nathaniel .437
Buxton, Byron .435
Taylor, Chris .434
Soto, Juan .429
Marte, Noelvi .427
Blackmon, Charlie .425
Dezenzo, Zach .424
Toglia, Michael .424
Nootbaar, Lars .422
Pages, Andy .421
Lux, Gavin .421
Conforto, Michael .419
Holliday, Jackson .416
A lot of those players are very good or excellent. Some of those players are sometimes good if rather streaky. Some of them are kinda crummy hitters who had a good week. I am going to need more evidence of the claim that the effect size is huge.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Oct 18, 2024 10:10:57 GMT -5
Grissom's xwOBA over that five-game stretch from 9/24 through 9/30 was 38th in baseball over that five-day stretch (min. 10 PA). Here are the list of players ahead of him: Rivera, Emmanuel .725 Judge, Aaron .623 Suzuki, Seiya .573 Ohtani, Shohei .559 Castellanos, Nick .558 Ramírez, José .551 Kavadas, Niko .533 Santana, Carlos .529 Bregman, Alex .515 Herrera, Iván .504 Brennan, Will .481 Duffy, Matt .479 Merrill, Jackson .479 Hernández, Enrique .477 Martinez, J.D. .474 Smith, Will .463 Bailey, Patrick .462 Raley, Luke .46 Schuemann, Max .458 Marte, Ketel .457 Harris II, Michael .446 Encarnacion, Jerar .446 Kelly, Carson .438 McCann, James .438 Lowe, Nathaniel .437 Buxton, Byron .435 Taylor, Chris .434 Soto, Juan .429 Marte, Noelvi .427 Blackmon, Charlie .425 Dezenzo, Zach .424 Toglia, Michael .424 Nootbaar, Lars .422 Pages, Andy .421 Lux, Gavin .421 Conforto, Michael .419 Holliday, Jackson .416 A lot of those players are very good or excellent. Some of those players are sometimes good if rather streaky. Some of them are kinda crummy hitters who had a good week. I am going to need more evidence of the claim that the effect size is huge. Niko! |
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