SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Smoak
Sept 6, 2012 14:01:54 GMT -5
Post by bentossaurus on Sept 6, 2012 14:01:54 GMT -5
So I've been thinking on who's gonna be our first baseman next year. Ideally for me Youk would come back on a short deal, but that's assuming both that Valentine is gone (likely), Youk has no hard feelings with the FO and only then we're talking about contract details.
I'm keeping the hell away of the FA market, so this leaves us with the trade market.
In the Punto trade thread someone mentioned Brandon Belt, that would be an excellent target talent-wise but I'm afraid he'd require too much in prospects return. Trying to find an asset who's not valued correctly by the league is a much better approach, in fact that's how the Theo management got valuable pieces like Millar, Mueller or Bellhorn. The rest of the league caught up with that and is now much harder to unearth this kind of value. This doesn't mean it's not possible though.
Then I came around Smoak, who we all saw play in the recent series at Seattle. At first glance he's beyond awful, owner of a .217/.290/.364 line this year and a .223/.306/.377 career out of the first baseman position. We have to keep in mind that he plays half his games in Safeco, as expected his numbers take a huge swing upwards when we consider his home/away splits (from 58 to 109 wRC+ in 2012 and 82 to 96 wRc+ career).
A 96 wRC+ player is obviously stll well below the standard we expect to occupy the position for the Boston Red Sox, but I believe there are 3 things we must consider then:
- 96 wRC+ is the number he achieved in his away games (I know the schedule wouldn't be the same but I'm going as if it is for simplicity sake), players usually have better splits at home everything else being equal. Getting out of Safeco to Fenway we can expect his home numbers to be better than his current away splits. We saw that with Beltré, who might miss Cooperstown solely because of Safeco, and I believe we'd see the same uptick with Smoak. I won't dwell into if his swing is a "Perfect Fenway Swing" or not, we were all fed that theory with players like Drew and A-Gon, and while they were all valuable players there wasn't the kind of impact we were led to believe.
- His BABIP is absurdly low, .242 in 2012 and .256 career. Once again I believe the park has big influence in that. The Mariners have a .276 BABIP for 2012 (couldn't find a team home/away split) while the Red Sox have a .301 mark. If we look at his batted ball numbers, his LD% numbers are nothing to write home about and seems to be a flyball hitter with a slightly below average HR/FB% and above average IFFB%. Reading from this, his BABIP numbers should be below average but still he's getting extremely unlucky. His game is based on lifting balls to the outfield but he plays in a park that turns balls that would have been home runs somewhere else into flyouts. I can't quantify how much the non-existent foul ground at Fenway and the Green Monster would help, but it would certainly be a boost (already considered in the BABIP team difference).
- He's 25! He's presumably still going up on the development curve and only has 2 years of service time accrued. Not only his poor numbers so far mean a lower acquisition value, they'd also be handy for future arbitration purposes. His BB% (9.2% for 2012, 10.6% career) and K% (20.7% 2012 and 21.6%career) aren't out of line for a power hitter so it´s not like the pitchers have figured him out and that's why he's been so bad. It's really up to the ball that have been batted. He doesn't swing out of the strikezone, although he is a bit too passive with balls in the zone. Contact numbers are what you should expect for a hitter of his kind, not very good protecting when going out and average with pitches in the zone.
For those wondering, he's above average with the glove 2.5 UZR/150 for 2012 and 1.7 career.
Now that I made my case, what do you think it would take to get this guy in Boston? Does Jack Z value him like I did here or like most people would when looking at his triple slash line? In other words, would it just take one of the bullpen guys we seem to have in droves this year or actually require talent like Kalish and Pimentel?
|
|
|
Smoak
Sept 6, 2012 15:09:40 GMT -5
Post by jdb on Sept 6, 2012 15:09:40 GMT -5
I'm a big fan of Smoak and think he will turn it around. He's had a tough few years with his Dad getting sick and eventually dying. That's got to be hard being Seatle is about as far away from Charleston, SC as you can get.
What about we trade problems? Bard for Smoak although they probably want hitting.
|
|
|
Smoak
Sept 6, 2012 15:35:45 GMT -5
Post by bentossaurus on Sept 6, 2012 15:35:45 GMT -5
Bard is a tricky guy, we have all seen he has a potential for greatness but he's in such a mess right now that I'd have to see how comes back in the Spring to have a proper reading of his current abilities.
Kalish was the guy that came up to my mind they'd ask, the Sox would probably rather offer some of the pitching we have on the bubble for a 40 man spot at the AAA roster.
The Mariners are loaded on SP prospects but unlike hitters they are traded as if they are accepted currency, you never have enough of them and if you do have some to spare, there's always someone willing to offer you something for it.
Pimentel+Hazelbaker?
|
|
|
Smoak
Sept 7, 2012 19:58:37 GMT -5
Post by sibbysisti on Sept 7, 2012 19:58:37 GMT -5
I was not impressed with Smoak before and am less so now, after seeing him in the recnt Mariners series.
I'd like to hold off on a major 1B signing before I see what Jerry Sands brings to the table.
|
|
|
Smoak
Sept 7, 2012 20:41:14 GMT -5
Post by dmaineah on Sept 7, 2012 20:41:14 GMT -5
Pass on Smoak
|
|
|
Smoak
Sept 7, 2012 21:42:47 GMT -5
Post by psusox14 on Sept 7, 2012 21:42:47 GMT -5
I'm not sure what it'd cost to get smoak, but if he's not too expensive prospect wise I would love the idea of a young guy with huge potential (once the centerpiece of a cliff lee deal) at a position of need.
|
|
|
Smoak
Sept 8, 2012 23:46:40 GMT -5
Post by bentossaurus on Sept 8, 2012 23:46:40 GMT -5
Gotta love Rotoworld sometimes:
|
|
|
Smoak
Sept 19, 2012 16:11:25 GMT -5
Post by patrmac04 on Sept 19, 2012 16:11:25 GMT -5
simple answer
no
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,830
|
Smoak
Sept 30, 2012 9:57:09 GMT -5
Post by nomar on Sept 30, 2012 9:57:09 GMT -5
Smoak has really turned it on this September. This probably sounds familiar, as it was the case last year too. But according to the Mariners, Smoak made substantial adjustments in his trip to AAA recently. I found these two articles pretty good: Fangraphs' Jeff Sullivan shows us the before and afters on his adjustments: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/where-theres-smoak-theres-something/Shannon Drayer breaks down what Smoak has actually changed: mynorthwest.com/374/896969/Why-this-September-could-be-different-for-SmoakI'm far from sold on Smoak's changes, but if he is cheap, there isnt much to lose with taking a chance on him next year. The Mariners will soon have Mike Zunino up next season, and will have to find a way to also find playing time for Jaso, Montero, and Smoak. He is expendable. He has become a bit more interesting of a topic for me now.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,830
|
Smoak
Sept 30, 2012 10:28:55 GMT -5
Post by nomar on Sept 30, 2012 10:28:55 GMT -5
Nick Cafardo, in today's Globe Notes column, has some thoughts on Smoak and his sudden resurgence. States that Ms have to make a decision on him soon due to Zuniga coming up from Tacoma. Can't give a link because his column requires membership. Yeah and Zunino might even break ST with the Mariners so they will have to have some idea this offseason. His .999 OPS in September is great, but I'm not totally convinced. His price shouldnt and probably wont be high at all. Id rather take the chance on Smoak than stick with Loney.
|
|
|
Smoak
Sept 30, 2012 10:30:07 GMT -5
Post by sibbysisti on Sept 30, 2012 10:30:07 GMT -5
Nick Cafardo, in today's Globe Notes column, has some thoughts on Smoak and his sudden resurgence. States that Ms have to make a decision on him soon.
Can't give a link because his column requires membership. Note: Had to modify orig. post. Cafardo doesn't mention Zunino. He's a catcher, anyway.
|
|
|
Smoak
Oct 4, 2012 12:24:20 GMT -5
Post by pedroelgrande on Oct 4, 2012 12:24:20 GMT -5
He has had a good few months so if the price is not too cray I wouldn't mind. He fits what we need guys that have talent that need a resurgence.
|
|
|
Smoak
Oct 5, 2012 10:19:29 GMT -5
Post by bentossaurus on Oct 5, 2012 10:19:29 GMT -5
Modified the first post to reflect season end numbers.
|
|
|
Smoak
Oct 28, 2012 8:43:18 GMT -5
Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Oct 28, 2012 8:43:18 GMT -5
I love the idea of Smoak, good research on the opening post as well. For what its worth, and I know this is going to be wildly unpopular with some of the people on here, I would attempt to trade Ellsbury, Pimentel, and one of Hazelbaker or Ranaudo for Smoak and Hultzen.
Ellsbury is from the NorthWest and likely would be another big draw for that team. He also fills a need for them in what is just a wildly underwhelming outfield. They also get more pitching depth in the minors and either a decent outfield prospect that could have some value in a huge park or a former first round pick in Ranaudo - who might benefit from a change of scenery as well.
I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility for Seattle to be a fit to try and extend Ellsbury (or sign him as a FA) as well. His game is suited to that type of park and he is from that area as mentioned previously.
The Sox get a former top 20ish overall prospect with some decent pop and a good glove to man first base for them. We also pick up another potentially top end of the rotation starter in Hultzen to add with Barnes, DeLaRosa, Webster and the resurgent Britton down on the farm.
|
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
|
Smoak
Oct 28, 2012 10:10:14 GMT -5
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 28, 2012 10:10:14 GMT -5
I love the idea of Smoak, good research on the opening post as well. For what its worth, and I know this is going to be wildly unpopular with some of the people on here, I would attempt to trade Ellsbury, Pimentel, and one of Hazelbaker or Ranaudo for Smoak and Hultzen. Ellsbury is from the NorthWest and likely would be another big draw for that team. He also fills a need for them in what is just a wildly underwhelming outfield. They also get more pitching depth in the minors and either a decent outfield prospect that could have some value in a huge park or a former first round pick in Ranaudo - who might benefit from a change of scenery as well. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility for Seattle to be a fit to try and extend Ellsbury (or sign him as a FA) as well. His game is suited to that type of park and he is from that area as mentioned previously. The Sox get a former top 20ish overall prospect with some decent pop and a good glove to man first base for them. We also pick up another potentially top end of the rotation starter in Hultzen to add with Barnes, DeLaRosa, Webster and the resurgent Britton down on the farm. I've advocated an Ellsbury for Hultzen trade earlier. I think a lot of your points are valid. Believe it or not, I'm not sure what you think we should offer for both Hultzen and Smoak is enough. I'd be all for this trade even with me liking Ells a lot! I used to love Smoak, but I'm not sure he will ever be very consistent with his approach at the plate....but he does have legit power....and we have a real need at 1st base.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,830
|
Smoak
Oct 28, 2012 13:50:49 GMT -5
Post by nomar on Oct 28, 2012 13:50:49 GMT -5
I love the idea of Smoak, good research on the opening post as well. For what its worth, and I know this is going to be wildly unpopular with some of the people on here, I would attempt to trade Ellsbury, Pimentel, and one of Hazelbaker or Ranaudo for Smoak and Hultzen. Ellsbury is from the NorthWest and likely would be another big draw for that team. He also fills a need for them in what is just a wildly underwhelming outfield. They also get more pitching depth in the minors and either a decent outfield prospect that could have some value in a huge park or a former first round pick in Ranaudo - who might benefit from a change of scenery as well. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility for Seattle to be a fit to try and extend Ellsbury (or sign him as a FA) as well. His game is suited to that type of park and he is from that area as mentioned previously. The Sox get a former top 20ish overall prospect with some decent pop and a good glove to man first base for them. We also pick up another potentially top end of the rotation starter in Hultzen to add with Barnes, DeLaRosa, Webster and the resurgent Britton down on the farm. I've advocated an Ellsbury for Hultzen trade earlier. I think a lot of your points are valid. Believe it or not, I'm not sure what you think we should offer for both Hultzen and Smoak is enough. I'd be all for this trade even with me liking Ells a lot! I used to love Smoak, but I'm not sure he will ever be very consistent with his approach at the plate....but he does have legit power....and we have a real need at 1st base. I love this idea of this trade. I think that the original idea could be enough too. Maybe instead of Pimental we could offer Workman/Britton. I like the idea of trading Ellsbury for Hultzen or Stephenson, which both seem pretty possible for this offseason. We'll see
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Smoak
Nov 6, 2012 13:47:45 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Nov 6, 2012 13:47:45 GMT -5
smoak cant hit for average and has minimal power for a 1B. DONT TRADE FOR HIM. gomez and/or sands would be better, and personally, i would just stick with gomez/sands
|
|
|
Post by patrmac04 on Nov 9, 2012 21:56:49 GMT -5
Count me in the Gomez and Sands group as well. The grass might be greener on the other side... but I think it will be fine with what we have at first. We have bigger holes to fill besides a league average platoon at first.
Sent from my SGH-T999 using proboards
|
|
|
Smoak
Dec 19, 2012 18:43:02 GMT -5
Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 19, 2012 18:43:02 GMT -5
The M's just traded for Kendrys Morales. I think this guy is available on the cheap, get in while you can.
|
|
|
Smoak
Dec 21, 2012 0:00:52 GMT -5
Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 21, 2012 0:00:52 GMT -5
The M's just traded for Kendrys Morales. I think this guy is available on the cheap, get in while you can. Where does he play?
|
|
|
Smoak
Dec 21, 2012 8:50:23 GMT -5
Post by Jonathan Singer on Dec 21, 2012 8:50:23 GMT -5
The M's just traded for Kendrys Morales. I think this guy is available on the cheap, get in while you can. Where does he play? First Base
|
|
|
Smoak
Dec 21, 2012 10:45:43 GMT -5
Post by ctscott on Dec 21, 2012 10:45:43 GMT -5
Considering the Ms situation at 1st base, might Smoak be cheap enough in terms of prospects that it wouldn't kill the Sox to trade for Smoak and cut him, if he doesn't look like a good option for the 25-man coming out of ST?
We could alleviate the roster crunch possibly by throwing a couple of borderline guys the Ms way for Smoak and if we cut him, we cut him.
Granted, I have zero idea of whether or not the Ms are going through a similar roster crunch, thus this would not be a good alternative to just keeping Smoak.
|
|
|
Smoak
Dec 21, 2012 13:20:27 GMT -5
Post by sibbysisti on Dec 21, 2012 13:20:27 GMT -5
Assuming Napoli's contract works out, he is our primary first baseman. On days he's catching, Mauro Gomez will spell him. Sox will lose him if he's cut.
Then there's Jerry Sands who also plays IB as well as the outfield. Nava can play there in a pinch.
Why, again, to we need Smoke?
|
|
|
Smoak
Dec 23, 2012 10:08:08 GMT -5
Post by bentossaurus on Dec 23, 2012 10:08:08 GMT -5
Sands is now gone apparently and the assumption that Napoli's contract gonna sort itself out is becoming unlikelier by the second. As of this moment, the starting first-baseman for the Boston Red Sox, is Mauro Gomez.
Like ctscott I don't know the roster situation with the M's but we if we can do a 2-for-1 deal with some of our guys on the 25-man bubble, I wouldn't think twice.
|
|
|
Smoak
Dec 23, 2012 10:18:35 GMT -5
Post by welovewally on Dec 23, 2012 10:18:35 GMT -5
I wouldn't think twice either, I wouldn't even think once. Its a big no on Smoak for me.
|
|
|