SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Recent Posts
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 21, 2015 1:07:49 GMT -5
Definitely something to think about. I think amassing a significant amount of starting depth will be their main objective, and the ability to deal from depth in season will be a result of that. Really only see a starter dealt this offseason if they run across an absolutely fantastic deal for Buch/Miley/Kelly, or where one of those guys is a piece in a deal for a starter.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 20, 2015 23:42:27 GMT -5
Reading peoples reaction to the possibility of getting Fernandez is quite amazing/frustrating. It seems like you all don't seem to realize he has the second best FIP of all pitchers in baseball over the pat three seasons and is not even 24. Yes the cost will likely be prohibitive and yes he has some injury concerns, but come on, he is presently the best pitcher in baseball not named Kershaw, Harvey, or Sale. The injury concerns are real. The IP limits are real. You go get him if you can, but it's no stretch to imagine that he's not the #1 horse they're looking for. Responsible management of the player says he shouldn't even be available for more than 27 starts next year. It's a hard situation. If we had more certainty in the rotation, it'd be a lot easier to be more gung-ho about him.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 20, 2015 22:48:10 GMT -5
The mere fact that this thread has now gone on for this many pages indicates the controversial nature of it. A great trade warrants a little back slapping and then on to the next business at hand. Only something that can blow up in our faces requires this much rationalization after the fact. This is probably the worst way to evaluate a trade ever
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 20, 2015 22:21:40 GMT -5
Masterson WAS a bad deal, wasted resources that went to someone who had red flags all over the place while we let both Lester and Miller walk - two healthy and productive arms - because we didn't want to risk the back end of their deals being bad. So instead we got a bad front end, another last place finish, and here we are trying to fill those exact same two holes this year. I obviously don't know Clay's medicals, but his long history suggests he has a lot of red flags as well. Not a gamble I want us to take, I'd rather reallocate that salary to signing better players and get 50 cents on the dollar while I can, but that is just my opinion and I'm aware it's a minority opinion here. Did they know he was throwing 87-89 at the time of that deal? I wonder if they just thought it was going to tick up in spring or what
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 20, 2015 22:19:17 GMT -5
Guerra's power came from mostly inside fastballs I think he'd be anymore than 15 homers a year tops. a Brad Miller of sorts.. (don't get me wrong with plus arm and plus D that could be a potential huge asset lost but, Xander's, who i believe is better bat, is here to stay.). dead pull hitter. Fenway right field would swallow up his power
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 20, 2015 17:48:49 GMT -5
I think Samardzija gets more than a 1 or 2 year deal but who knows. Cubs have already been linked to him.
I still think Greinke is probably the best bet performance wise, though Price is maybe a better fit.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 20, 2015 17:29:36 GMT -5
As for Varvaro, he could always re-sign on a well-paying minor league deal if he's continuing to rehab, but wanted to check the waters to see what else was out there first. Devern Hansack comes to mind as someone they've done that with (nevermind the Sandy Leon move earlier this offseason). Cubs wouldn't shock me if he's healthy. Considering they already claimed him last year once.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 20, 2015 17:28:35 GMT -5
And Storen only has 1 year of control left.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 20, 2015 17:24:59 GMT -5
It's been reported multiple times that he doesn't want to relieve and that he wants to be a starter. I wish the Sox could have gotten him to return, but it was never ever ever ever a fit unless no one else gave him the chance to start.
Schilling tweets: "This'll come back to bit[e] Sox" which makes no sense, then again, when does Schilling ever make much sense on twitter.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 20, 2015 15:18:41 GMT -5
... They can still make any trade and sign any player they want. No the opportunity cost of that trade is not applicable. ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/smiley.png) You can keep repeating that but it won't make it so, jerry. Having traded off both of the prospects who commanded the most value, those the team saw as fungible given their current and projected roster, they have fewer opportunities to take advantage of deals the remainder of the off-season. Giles is one of the "investments" that has been passed up - necessarily so unless the Sox start trading off ML roster pieces or dipping deeper into their minor league talent pool. He's one they might very well have been able to bid on with some of those prospects, someone with more years of control, and two years younger. Check it out. To sit here and preach that they passed on Giles is just wildly dumb. If you think he wasn't on their list at the beginning of the offseason, and that they didn't make calls on him before they got Kimbrel, then you're nutty. You are not smarter than an entire ML front office, scouting, and player development team lol. Heck people on twitter were throwing out Giles' name well before Kimbrel went down. Odds are, DD called on Giles. Phillies probably threw out something like "we won't trade him unless we get Mookie or Moncada or Owens" and DD moved on.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 20, 2015 2:36:40 GMT -5
I think you go after Fernandez you're probably trading Swihart and then buying a stop gap at C (Ianetta?) to go with Hanigan until it can be determined whether Vazquez can throw adequately again. If this is real - or the Indians dangling Carrasco - you have to jump into that water. Assuming his attitude is ok, I would be real careful on who I trade for this guy. Even though he's under control for 3 years, due to that innings cap & forearm problem last year, your really getting about 2 years of him. I might give a similar package for 5 years of Carrasco, or a tick less for Salazar. Why is Salazar LESS valuable?
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 19, 2015 23:59:53 GMT -5
Dombrowski, sharp suits and slicked back hair, is a gambler, no doubt about it. This is pretty laughable. I'm not exactly sure what in his past says he's a big gambler. A lot of his trades show extremely in-tune player evaluation and hard-nosed efforts in going after the guys he wants. If you want to label someone a "gambler" go look at Cherington's tenure. A myriad of reclamation projects, hopeful hidden-value acquisitions, and suddenly departures from his clearly stated ethos in signing guys like Hanley Ramirez.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 19, 2015 19:46:22 GMT -5
I'm not exactly sure how they trade JBJ for a reliever. We're already in the market for a 4th OF, now we need two. Not to mention a starter to grab in FA.
If JBJ is dealt I would assume it's for a cost-controlled starter (so you have money left to fill your other voids). Storen's also due for a raise, and has 1 year of control. Next season Koji, Taz, and Storen would all hit the market.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 19, 2015 18:37:58 GMT -5
who the hell gave Trevor Rosenthal a 6th place vote for MVP?!?!?!? I would assume a writer from St. Louis lol
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 19, 2015 18:35:54 GMT -5
I think if you offered Bradley and Hanley for $10m a year (so the Red Sox would eat $36m on the $66m due to him over the next three years), that gets the conversation started. The next line of that convo is "keep Hanley and give us many more of those JBJ type players"
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 19, 2015 16:23:03 GMT -5
I am relatively inexperienced with Rule 5 stuff, and thanks for correcting the list.
Is there any danger of Haley getting picked? Obviously not a huge prospect, and his 2015 was down, but 2014 at AA his numbers were good. And his Arizona Fall League stint currently is going about as impressively as anyone could hope for.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 19, 2015 16:13:20 GMT -5
I said this in an earlier thread... I really don't think we match up well with Cleveland for a trade. We obviously would love to have Carrasco or Salazar as our #2 pitcher, however to make a trade the other team needs something back they need. In this case Cleveland needs major league hitting. Who can we offer? Betts/Bogaerts/Ortiz are not moving, at least in those deals. Who then? Ramirez? Nope. We would need to get a third team like Cin with Frazier or Col with Gonzalez involved, in my opinion. Why would Cleveland create a hole in the top three of their rotation unless they are getiing a player back who can hit in the middle of their lineup? Yeah, there's really not a match for a heads up trade. Most likely you'd see DD architect a 3-team deal in which Sox prospects go to CLE, One of Buch/Kelly/Miley (maybe a prospect too) go to a third team dealing an established offensive OF-er, and then that established OF-er going to CLE, and a Cleveland starter coming back to Boston.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 19, 2015 16:08:45 GMT -5
My guess is that JBJ has more "value" or "worth" to the Red Sox than to another team, unless one or two teams fully project his bat to develop into an above average skill set. Thus, I don't really see him being traded. I certainly don't see him as the lynchpin to a deal for an elite player, and if they can keep a cost controlled 2+ WAR player then do so. I'd guess his arbitration $'s will be low given that his value doesn't come from the offense, and with so many other big contracts, and potentially big arbitration #'s from Bogaerts, Betts, etc., JBJ is a great piece to have so long as he is a competent hitter Sure. I also don't think the Sox FO is evaluating players based on their "value" or "worth" in a vacuum. I think their main goal is building an optimized team while not losing too much future performance. They view something like the present value of Kimbrel as paramount, because their business is slightly lagging due to poor performance, but they also see a multitude of young affordable talent appearing and the idea of contention is coming into view. There is no sense in evaluating prospects in a vacuum, or trying to determine a players value as a universal. Value's range heavily depending on system, other players in system, and things like ballpark factors. Javier Guerra in a vacuum is a really decent prospect. Slick glove, cannon arm, interesting bat. To the yankees, for whom he'd play 81 games, he could be extremely valuable given his dead-pull stroke to right field which would be conveniently aimed at that short porch. 81 games at Fenway however would be much less kind to his potential homer totals. JBJ is worth a lot more in Petco or AT&T Park, than he is in say, Great American Ballpark. We really need to stop pretending like all our estimated values of players exist in a vacuum and don't fluctuate heavily based on the needs of seller and buyer, and the time-sensitive atmosphere of the market. edit: and I don't mean to insist you mrredsox89 were insinuating anything different, just ranting and going off on a tangent
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 19, 2015 14:45:38 GMT -5
You have to convert all value that you're getting in the future to NPV so you're comparing apples to apples. Getting two wins of production next year should be more valuable than getting two wins of production five years from now. This is really basic accounting stuff. Haha yes, and extremely experienced accountants use much better data to evaluate a company's future expected earnings when estimating a valuation. The estimates you're using to evaluate players and their values are much less concrete and much less specific to the actual players dealt. It's bad estimation on top of bad estimation, then those two numbers are used to build yet another estimation. And you arrive at a fun number to sit and say "hey look at this" and pretend like it says something that's not derived from a bunch of poor estimates.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 19, 2015 14:27:41 GMT -5
I think you're talking simply about defensive value. It doesn't need to correlate to offensive value. Everyone believes JBJ is an everyday player even if he hits .235/.300/.385 Yes, an everday player who: 1. Is as likely to become an asset at the plate as not. The numbers in 13 and 14 must be minimized because of the circumstances at the time 2. Is likely to continue contributing to the aggressive and highly effective baserunning culture which dominated the kid's second half. Rusney/Swihart/JBJ/Mookie/Pedey/XB/ Brockatar pose a constant threat to pitchers, catchers and infielders, enhancing tbe run scoring environment, like KC. 3. Is a perpetual GG candidate in CF, RF, LF, not just taking away hits but preventing runners from advancing and scoring; and pilig up Aasists. 4. He is too valuable to trade and is not easily or reasonably replaced. 5. His reasonable contract allow DDo to spend in areas of genuine need. 6. .Juat aign a top FA TOR.and a solid 4th OF. 7. If his hitting becomes a black hole (unlikely), Benitendi is too close to clog the OF with high priced, long term replacements like Gordon or Haywaed, as good as tbey are. I like JBJ. But if he's the lynchpin for a big time starter, then I'm buying his plane tickets for him. Also, I don't think we can think of Benintendi as all that close yet. He played 19 games in Greenville. We can pump the brakes a little bit. If he rockets up to AA quickly next year, then I'll be convinced. But we have to factor things in like proper development, and also proper conditioning to get through the much longer seasons in professional baseball.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 19, 2015 14:09:05 GMT -5
It's a fair point that the possibility of offering him the QO should be included in the analysis, but I agree that it doesn't really change the conclusion. For one thing, it's not a slam dunk that he's good enough to be worth the QO in three years-- only one reliever (Robertson) has received it to date, though Chapman (if he stays healthy) should receive it as well. Second, the value of a draft pick three years from now needs to be significantly discounted to get their net present value (the prospect valuations I cited do so), and once you do that, it's not a significant amount. Maybe $6m or so in NPV. ehh, thinking of a draft pick in net present value is a really bad way to look at it. You get a draft pick for the value IN THE FUTURE, not at the present. Just seems like an extremely skewed way of looking at it.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 19, 2015 13:59:28 GMT -5
I think you're talking simply about defensive value. It doesn't need to correlate to offensive value. Everyone believes JBJ is an everyday player even if he hits .235/.300/.385
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 19, 2015 13:54:06 GMT -5
Denney and Kukuk would both have 6 years until free agency so I think we'd have to question if it's worth giving that up for a couple years of Harper. It'd have to be a 5 team deal with some prospects going to both the Kansas and Floriday penal systems
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 19, 2015 0:49:39 GMT -5
Dodgers - Price Red Sox - Greinke Giants - Cueto Tor - Zimmerman
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 19, 2015 0:41:19 GMT -5
So, as it stands the roster is at 39, and the rule 5 deadline is coming up friday.
Here is the list of guys who are eligible:
Mario Alcantara, Mike Augliera, Ty Buttrey, David Chester, Carlos Coste, Keith Couch, Jacob Dahlstrand, Jeffry Fernandez, Edwar Garcia, Carlos Garcia, Justin Haley, Kevin Heller, Marco Hernandez, Williams Jerez, Kyle Kaminska, Zach Kapstein, Kyle Kraus, Pat Light, Deiner Lopez, Austin Maddox, Brandon Magee, Chris Marrero, Mike McCarthy, Simon Mercedes, Mike Miller, Aneudis Peralta, Randy Perez, Yankory Pimentel, Carlos Pinales, Heri Quevedo, Henry Ramos, Tim Roberson, Dioscar Romero, Jonathan Roof, Dave Sappelt, Robby Scott, David Sopilka, Zeke Spruill, Alixon Suarez, Aneury Tavarez, German Taveras, Jervis Torrealba, Jose Vinicio, JT Watkins, Jordan Weems
Standouts are obviously Hernandez, Jerez, Pat Light, and then there are some fringe guys like Justin Haley (who is performing well in AFL currently)
Who do you save? Do you swing a trade to open up spots? Or do you DFA some guys off the 40man?
|
|
|