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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 13, 2018 22:57:40 GMT -5
We were not in a good position to trade Porcello last week either. We've known for a while now that we could not rely on Wright as one of our starters. This recent announcement does not change anything really, except maybe that Wright will not compete in ST. I mean, Wright not being able to compete in spring training pretty much did change everything though. Wright is a huge piece, and now he's unavailable to start the season. If you're missing spring training, you're out a month at minimum. Wright was never reliable to begin with, but he was a option up until the second surgery. As of right now, Brian Johnson is your 5th starter. Hector Velazquez is your 6th starter and nothing beyond these two to start the year at least. That's not good in terms of depth. No it really didn't. I do not agree that this injury changes everything, I do not think this changes everything for DD either. I mean we are talking about a guy who didn't play much the past few seasons and would have been a middle reliever/spot starter. He has value, but to say his being injured, again, changes the entire off-season plan is kind of silly. I do agree that with what you listed the depth looks slim.That is why I've said for weeks now not to trade Porcello. Even before this news, Wright was not a replacement for Porcello in any way. If hearing that he, a guy who has proven injury prone, may miss a month, as you said, changes your entire off-season trade plans to trade Porcello, then respectfully, it was not a good idea to begin with. Also, I want Porcello to stay and to sign Eovaldi.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 13, 2018 18:45:18 GMT -5
The recent surgery to Wright puts the pressure on to resign Eovaldi. There's no timetable for Wright's return and he could very well miss spring training rather easily. The Sox are not in a good position to trade Porcello now that Wright situation is unclear. I'm not sure that Wright can ever be depended on as any more of a bonus from here on out. I was hoping to extract some value from Porcello in a trade, but now I see a trade happening less and less moving forward in 2019. We were not in a good position to trade Porcello last week either. We've known for a while now that we could not rely on Wright as one of our starters. This recent announcement does not change anything really, except maybe that Wright will not compete in ST.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 10, 2018 18:47:45 GMT -5
Lol. Me too...
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 10, 2018 16:58:19 GMT -5
This was fun to read all the way back to 2013... crazy some of these posts...
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 7, 2018 1:32:11 GMT -5
I think 2019 is the year to go "all out". After 2019, we need to make tough decisions and this will require letting guys go, but right now is not that time. I can't emphasize enough how ill-advised it would be for the front office to go into this off-season without 1) prioritizing the upcoming free agents; 2) finding out this year which can be extended within your budget parameters; and 3) acting accordingly this year once these are known. So major FAs upcoming: 2019Bogaerts Sale Porcello JD Martinez (Opt Out) 2020Mookie JBJ So who do you want to extend and who can you afford to extend? As you make these assessments you have to ask, Is Sale's shoulder worth another 5 years at top dollar? If not, then you certainly don't trade him, but you look at pitching as a proposition beyond this year; ditto Porcello. With regard to Xander, the SS market for free agents is very poor next year and their is no readily identifiable internal option who will be ready, so if Xander doesn't fit into your budget or wants they will likely need a trade. And then there JD and Mookie. Mookie and his agent have been sending signals that they'll be using Bryce Harper's deal as a framework. You need to leverage the exclusivity now or plan to lose each player - especially with Sale and Bradley - unless you wish to get into a bidding war, which means you'll end up paying significantly more or giving more years (or both) than you like. Once you make these determinations you act accordingly - including loading up on selected assets now, and trading other assets for maximum value as you do. So, for example, if you sign a 3-4 starter to a 3 or 4 years deal, it probably makes sense to trade Porcello. If you get a SS you trade Xander, etc. You don't trade Sale, Mookie or JD even if you got, say, a #2 starter or Bryce Harper, respectively, because their value to the team exceeds their likely trade value. That's just my take on asset allocation and acquisition based on known variables to date. Others here definitely have different opinions on this. But playing it year to year and "let's see what the market will bear" for your highest level assets instead of leveraging exclusivity now is a suboptimal approach that increases the odds of losing those assets. My "go all out" reference was to try to win a WS in 2019 and not trade our team away, especially guys like JBJ and Porcello. Not go sign all the top FAs. Just to be clear. Now, I don't agree with all, but most of what you said makes sense. Trading any player is relevant to where the team is at, discussing the players future, and the direction the club is taking. For example: If Boston is having a really bad year, and Sale makes it clear he wants a 7yr deal at 33 mil per and the Sox are not comfortable with say his shoulder, then trading him could 100% be an option. Or perhaps its someone else. So much goes into each situation, its very hard to sit here any say this guy or that guy can go if you get this, but these other guys cannot ever get traded.... again, its all relevant.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 6, 2018 0:31:44 GMT -5
Yeah same money. Miller or Britton? Same years and money... IDK really.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 5, 2018 23:05:30 GMT -5
I think 2019 is the year to go "all out". After 2019, we need to make tough decisions and this will require letting guys go, but right now is not that time.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 5, 2018 21:45:33 GMT -5
Same money? Say 3/30?
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 5, 2018 21:32:47 GMT -5
Can we, as fans, stop trying to trade Porcello? Seriously.... even JBJ. We are competing for a championship in 2019, thus, we need good players who have been there. I am very grateful that all of you who keep asking us to trade our good pkayers, that I root for, having nothing to do with the actual decisions. I trust DD will do right as he has As some continually state, its "crazy" to trade good players when your competing for a WS. Let's win another with our good, home grown players! And, yes, I used an "!" to make my point, as others use the exclamation point fairly often. 😎 No one has discussed trading Porcello or JBJ this year recently in this thread. The debate was trading JBJ next year after 2019 when they have to reset the luxury tax. I totally agree that they aren't trading anyone this year that doesn't make the team better this year. I disagree that no one had discussed this, but I agree nonetheless
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 5, 2018 21:08:48 GMT -5
Can we, as fans, stop trying to trade Porcello? Seriously.... even JBJ.
We are competing for a championship in 2019, thus, we need good players who have been there. I am very grateful that all of you who keep asking us to trade our good pkayers, that I root for, having nothing to do with the actual decisions. I trust DD will do right as he has
As some continually state, its "crazy" to trade good players when your competing for a WS. Let's win another with our good, home grown players!
And, yes, I used an "!" to make my point, as others use the exclamation point fairly often.
😎
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 5, 2018 7:47:16 GMT -5
I wished for Benny too....
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 4, 2018 14:58:41 GMT -5
I like Kimbrel a lot, but I do think there has been a few things that I noticed, which may or may not mean anything:
His FIP in 2018 was the highest ever. His walk rate was 2nd highest of his career, two of the past three years he has his two worst walk rates. His HRs per 9 innings was the worst of his career. He threw more wild pichers this past year than ever before. He had a horrible post season.
All of this said, he was still one of the best relievers is all of baseball.
At his age though, and what I think it will cost to sign him, while taking into consideration the construction of this roster, to include upcoming expiring contracts, and I don't think signing him is the best choice.
But.... what do I know?
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 3, 2018 16:20:57 GMT -5
How can you be so sure about that? He looks like Cabrera frankly. He's a big kid that looks rather pudgy and they either get bigger or slim down. I really think its 50-50 he can stay at 3b. Sure a lot of his mistakes can get better as he gets older, but it won't matter if his body changes and he losses speed and athleticism. On the flip side maybe he doesn't improve. Maybe he's just a guy that can make awesome plays and tons of stupid ones. You just can't overlook his issues. I mean you can, but it doesn't make much sense. We just don't know and you have errors and a body that isn't close to ideal for 3B. I mean he's listed at 6' 237 pounds at age 21 on Baseball Refrence and that looks about right. Is this a serious question? Is this a serious question? is this a serious question?
How about, because it's an actual measurement of how fast he ran compared to every other player in MLB, in situations where players run as fast as they can?
His average sprint speed was 27.3, compared to MLB average 27.0 The faster guys on the team were the 4 B's and Nunez. He ranked 14th among the 30 3B with the most "competitive runs."
This was funny.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 3, 2018 9:28:31 GMT -5
Well, I like the Eovaldi and Ottavino signings for sure. In this case, let Kelly walk.
Edit: Unless Kelly takes a 2yr deal, then maybe I go with him over a 3yr deal for Ottavino.
I am not a huge Moreland fan, but he is on a 1/6.5, and good defensively, so I would keep him. Plus, if we can get Peace on a one year, maybe a mutual option for a second year, they compliment each other well.
We are going to need seven starters, at least, next year. Johnson and Wright will get their starts filling in for everyone except Porcello, who may end up as the only one making 32 starts.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 2, 2018 18:08:01 GMT -5
I want Pearce back, but I admit a week ago I was wondering if Chavis could replace Pearce on the roster.
I guess if he is not playing though, probably not....
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 2, 2018 16:00:21 GMT -5
Read that too. It'd be nice if he could play 2B, just in case Pedey can't come all the way back.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 2, 2018 12:09:47 GMT -5
Yeah, 4/$72M seems like a reasonable high-end estimate for Eovaldi if the market for him gets hot. Corbin is probably the only starter getting more than four years. Maybe the Dodgers work out something with Kershaw that spreads his money out over five years. I suggested 4/64, but Keith Law I think released his top 50 FAs and said something to the effect of 3/60....
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 1, 2018 19:48:28 GMT -5
I would love to get Eovaldi at 4/64 maybe? Breaking the bank would be $100 mil. Also, and for clarification, to me a super team is trying to obtain a great player at every position through crazy trades or FA. I don't think me wishing for the Sox to retain their own FAs and not trade their good players qualifies as me trying to build a super team. No need to reply about that anymore though as we can just agree to disagree. Last year we started with Sale, Price, Porcello, Pomeranz and ERod as our rotation with Johnson and Wright as our 6th and 7th starters. So having those two as cheap, BP/spot starters again is not anything carzy, as you put it. Really we are just replacing Pomeranz, who was a back to back 3.32 ERA and 30 start guy each of the two years before, with Eovaldi. Also, for clarification, Porcello is the #3 starter behind Sale and Price, even if Eovaldi resigns. Lastly, I really like Wright. Especially as a long relief and spot starter. I cannot bring myself to count on him for 30 starts, but he is valuable for sure! I think NYY needing 2-3 starters, and the temptation to make Eovaldi - who played for New York and liked it - an addition that also subtracts from their greatest rival, makes deals in the 4/$64M range unlikely. At the very least, they will drive up the price if he reaches the open market. How much do you think? $20 per? 5 years?
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 1, 2018 17:18:26 GMT -5
No offense taken, but I think you are misconstrued on what I want, even what a "super team" is. I would like them to resign Eovaldi if possible, yes, but not break the bank, I would hope Porcello is never discussed in trade, or JBJ for that matter. I would let Kimbrel walk. I would look to trade Vazquez or Swihart. I have said this repeatedly. If that sounds like me trying to build your referenced "super team", I don't know how to convince you otherwise. If the Sox are smart, and I think DD and the Front Office are, they would not trade good valuable players while they are on the cusp of winning another WS. This team may get blown up and look completely different for 2020, but after next year we can discuss all this. Well what's your idea of break the bank? The current estimates are like 4 years at 17 to 18 million a season. Your going to be looking at spending close to 40 million on your #4 and #5 starters. Guys most teams would have as #3 or better in their rotations. If that isn't building a super team I don't know what is. Wanting a guy like Wright as your 6th starter. Heck maybe that is the way too go. Maybe Porcello doesn't have a lot of value, I think he does though. So for me if your signing Eovaldi, I'm seeing what I can get for Porcello. Knowing that the chances of a Wright/Pomeranz pairing give you almost as much as Porcello does. Heck I'm more likely to not sign Eovaldi, because I don't think he'll be worth it. The problem is that is more scouting and I just don't know if the change is real or not. So I'll leave that up to DD. I just want to say this isn't just you. It's a board wide crazy time right now. All the Mods that for years valued prospects and always talked about not building superteams all seem to want to do exactly that now! I just think we need to sit back and realize you don't need a really good pitcher for your #5 spot. We just won 108 games and got 30 plus starts from Johnson, Velazquez, and a Pomeranz that was horrible. So I'm looking at money and the fact no team should be like we need a Porcello as our #5 starter. I'm all for spending money and believe we should again blow by the upper tax limit. Yet we can't blow by it before the season even starts. So for me it's Porcello or Eovaldi, not both. Signing Eovaldi does have the added benefit of being able to maybe trade Porcello. Given this teams young talent, blowing up the team in 2020 is the last thing I want to do! Which is why I look at trading Porcello in the first place. You can't just look at all the good young talent we have and be OK with only one more shot at a championship. That is crazy! Maybe Porcello isn't the guy, maybe it's someone else. I do want to maximize our chances of winning next year, but also be thinking about the future. There are a ton of ways to do that though. Porcello looks to be the guy with the highest value that likely isn't in our long-term plans, so he's on the top of my list and he makes a ton of money. I don't always agree with Eric, but he makes a very good case for Wright. A guy most seem to have written off due to a lost year, but if he's healthy and the Sox would know that you can't just write him off. He could easily be the best 5th starter in the league and a major inning eater. We also have a lot less issues than last year when both Price and ERod were major question marks due to injury and surgery. I would love to get Eovaldi at 4/64 maybe? Breaking the bank would be $100 mil. Also, and for clarification, to me a super team is trying to obtain a great player at every position through crazy trades or FA. I don't think me wishing for the Sox to retain their own FAs and not trade their good players qualifies as me trying to build a super team. No need to reply about that anymore though as we can just agree to disagree. Last year we started with Sale, Price, Porcello, Pomeranz and ERod as our rotation with Johnson and Wright as our 6th and 7th starters. So having those two as cheap, BP/spot starters again is not anything carzy, as you put it. Really we are just replacing Pomeranz, who was a back to back 3.32 ERA and 30 start guy each of the two years before, with Eovaldi. Also, for clarification, Porcello is the #3 starter behind Sale and Price, even if Eovaldi resigns. Lastly, I really like Wright. Especially as a long relief and spot starter. I cannot bring myself to count on him for 30 starts, but he is valuable for sure!
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 1, 2018 13:56:36 GMT -5
This is actually looking to be boring. Both here and in real life.
It seems they want to re-sign Eovaldi, Pearce, and Kelly, while letting Kimbrel walk, and I think most of us want to, as well. It looks like they'll shop Swihart, knowing they have the option of waiting until ST if they don't like what they hear.
So the only remaining question is the bullpen. We start with:
Kelly Barnes Brasier
Those guys could actually compete for the closer job. You could use all three over the 7th, 8th, and 9th, depending on matchups. That would be fun!
Wright. Even if he's starting as I hope, you still list him here!
Johnson. Best spot-starter / long man in MLB. Can he double again as the only LHR?
Hembree. You might deal him during the season, but he's certainly good enough to keep around to start with.
That's six.
You have Velazquez as the up-and-down guy for whenever one or two of the 5 starters, Wright, or Johnson is hurt.
What about the seventh spot? You have:
Workman as an out-of options guy who seems to be good enough to be the last man in the pen.
Smith as a health question mark and possible non-tender and ml re-sign who could possibly be very good
Thornburg as a likely non-tender and possible ml re-sign with a small chance at being very good Pomeranz as a possible ml re-sign
An OK set of further up-and-down guys, led by Poyner
It might make good sense to acquire a legitimate LHR, even if Hernandez could fill that role by season's end. Given Lakins and Feltman as likely arrivals at some point and Shawarayn as a possibility, I just don't think it makes sense to make an investment of talent or dollars in another RHR. Without an addition, Lakins or Feltman would take Hembree's spot. An injury would open up a spot for the other. Adding a Soria or Familia in addition to a LHR would seem to be a waste of bucks (hmm, that has a familiar ring ...). If everyone's healthy, you're moving Hembee and now you've blocked Lakins and Feltman until someone gets hurt. At least one of those guys should be better than an up-and-down guy right? Nope, makes no sense.
Someone's likely to get hurt in ST, and if you don't want Velazquez to take that spot, you might keep Workman around until ST. Hey, shouldn't we have a Rule 5 draft thread?
Obviously you scour the earth for potential Brasiers and invite them to ST. I think most of us agree that building a bullpen cheap that way is better than paying premium prices.
If we bring back Eovaldi and Kelly, I think the pen looks like this: Kelly Barnes Braiser Hembree Wright Johnson Velasquez With Sale, Price, Porcello, Rodriguez and Eovaldi in the rotation. I don't think Boston will use a six man rotation. I think Feltman and Lakins could replace Johnson and Velasquez in the pen sometime throughout the season. Maybe by May. Poyner and Scott will come up a bit. Smith and Thornburg may help, but will not be counted on at all. Nor should they. Wight and Johnson will fill in for injuries in the rotation. My two cents of course
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 1, 2018 11:59:17 GMT -5
I'm moving JBJ for young pitching and switching Mookie back to CF, signing a guy along the lines of Brantley or Markakis for RF. I'd also move Sale now that Price opted in. I don't trust the long-term durability after what happened despite the relative kid glove treatment he got this year. I'd sign Eovaldi to fill his spot in the rotation. Kimbrell gets a QO with the hopes he gets signed elsewhere. Holt is moving on and Lin gets to fill his super-sub role. Would love to re-sign Pearce if it's reasonable. I'm also moving X-man for the best minor-league talent I can and signing Asdrubal Cabrera or Iglesias. Thought process being to try and move some highly rated guys while they are at peak value and get talent that can be ready to contribute in 1-2 years down the road. I don't see how they can keep all of the home-grown guys forever. Wow. You just blew up the team. JBJ, Xander, Holt and Sale all traded away. But then you signed Brantley, Eovaldi and Asdrubal Cabrera to contracts. I like the Pearce and Eovaldi signings as well as letting Kimbrel walk....
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 1, 2018 6:25:57 GMT -5
Sure. I agree to listen to offers to see what their value to other teams may be, on every single player really, but unless they are blowing us away, don't trade them two you recommended we trade, or anyone else. You don't trade players just because. I, personally, don't think any team ready to compete for a championship in 2019 (thats who would be interested in those two) will trade away any of their core good controllable players for them. Also, dealing them would strengthen the competition, no? They are good players and valuable to the Red Sox. I guess if a team offers a cost controlled young pitcher or CF, who is only slightly less effective than either of them and has 4/5 more years of control, you consider the offer, but the counter to that is: why don't that team just keep that good young player? Plus, we know Porcello and JBJ pretty well. They seem like great teammates, great clubhouse guys and good people overall. They are great representatives of this organization.... Also.... Signing Eovaldi and trading Porcello seems odd to me.... I want both. No offense, I get wanting the best team possible, yet you want a super team. Can't trade Porcello, yet he'd be a #5 on that team right now in my book making 20 million a year. When chances are a Wright and lets say Pomeranz tandem would likely equal his performance and innings. Every team will have question marks. Plus that will have us blowing by the highest luxury tax again. Why would a team trade multiple years of team control of a young player for Porcello? Simple on that team he'd be more of a #2 or #3 starter. It doesn't have to be one for one either you could add in a Hembree, Workman, Poyner etc giving them years of team control. Teams out there have excess depth in the OF or don't want to wait on a young starter. Yea its risky in a way, but smart teams take some risk. It could pay off big time in the future. You don't need a 4 war pitcher for the 5th spot in the rotation! Crazy idea trade Porcello for Margot. Gives you a replacement for Bradley. Padres have a good amount of OF depth, a top farm system and seem to want to compete sooner rather than later given the Hosmer signing. Trade for Porcello, sign another starter or two. It might not be smart, but teams do that type of crap all the time. No offense taken, but I think you are misconstrued on what I want, even what a "super team" is. I would like them to resign Eovaldi if possible, yes, but not break the bank, I would hope Porcello is never discussed in trade, or JBJ for that matter. I would let Kimbrel walk. I would look to trade Vazquez or Swihart. I have said this repeatedly. If that sounds like me trying to build your referenced "super team", I don't know how to convince you otherwise. If the Sox are smart, and I think DD and the Front Office are, they would not trade good valuable players while they are on the cusp of winning another WS. This team may get blown up and look completely different for 2020, but after next year we can discuss all this.
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 31, 2018 17:38:10 GMT -5
I hope he can be a factor in 2019!
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 31, 2018 17:36:42 GMT -5
I didn't read all the posts, so sorry if this was covered: why do the Mets need/want JBJ? they don't... Lol, right.
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 31, 2018 17:28:15 GMT -5
there seems to be a lot of sign eovaldi / trade porcello talk on here which i find funny...seems some believe that eovaldi will actually be better than porcello, which is certainly possible. but if you believe eovaldi will be better, than you should assume that another team would also feel that way and value him accordingly on the open market. why trade for porcello when you can just sign eovaldi for only $$$ ...it's not like porcello is some cheap cost-controlled guy. Eovaldi has a lot of risk attached. Rick Porcello for the most part doesn't. Teams might prefer the stability versus the upside, but other teams might like the upside more. Depends what each team is looking for in their rotations. Boston could use Porcello's stability, wouldn't you say?
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