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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 4, 2023 14:40:25 GMT -5
Since April 19th, Casas has a weird ass batting line of .194/.405/.290. Good for a 110 wRC+ though. You'd think the scouting report would be to just throw him cookies down the middle and dare him to consistently hit the ball, he hasn't been able to do it his whole ML career so far(not that it's a lot of ABs). I know if I was watching the Sox allow a guy under the mendoza line with that crummy a slugging percent walk that much I'd be getting real pissed. And this isn't me giving up on Casas at all either, far from it but until he made an adjustment to it that'd be my gameplan vs him. Not true. Last 13 games last year, 51 PA, .316 / .490 / .579 ... against all four AP East rivals and no one else. Everything we dreamed of.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 4, 2023 14:28:09 GMT -5
I think I've mentioned that there's good reason to believe that team hitting "clutch" is streaky. And that makes complete sense psychologically.
And players treat high-leverage situations differently. After Verdugo had his second great year in high leverage, I decided that he just liked it. It fit his easily observed personality that his reaction would be "this is so much fun!" Which reduces self-inflicted pressure to zero.
Doogie said exactly this after walk-off #3 -- that he loved hitting with the game on the line.
On the other side of the ledger (as Johnny Most used to say) ... Xander Bogaerts, who is killing NL pitchers, has had 9 PA with Leverage 2.0 or above and has made 9 outs: a single, a walk, and two GDP's. This is his 3rd straight year with this problem.
Being conscientious is an important element of "makeup." If Doogie had it as a strength he would never have put out on the extra weight that cratered his defense last year. Xander is having another outstanding year on defense, which means he worked at it in the off-season despite the big contract.
But it's a trait that can lead to putting pressure on yourself to succeed. And failing because you put too much pressure on yourself of course can lead to feeling more pressure. The possibility that Xander might struggle to to get out of this doom loop was, I thin, a factor in the team's approach to his contract extension.
Hypothesis: propensity for live TV F-bombs correlates with clutch ability, for just this reason. See:
Ortiz, David Verdugo, Alex
That is brilliant. BTW, I added Doogis' high-leverage numbers (as originally intended) to the post above. Just your usual .667 / .750 / 1.167 in 8 PA.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 4, 2023 14:01:09 GMT -5
I think I've mentioned that there's good reason to believe that team hitting "clutch" is streaky. And that makes complete sense psychologically.
And players treat high-leverage situations differently. After Verdugo had his second great year in high leverage, I decided that he just liked it. It fit his easily observed personality that his reaction would be "this is so much fun!" Which reduces self-inflicted pressure to zero.
Doogie said exactly this after walk-off #3 -- that he loved hitting with the game on the line.
On the other side of the ledger (as Johnny Most used to say) ... Xander Bogaerts, who is killing NL pitchers, has had 9 PA with Leverage 2.0 or above and has made 9 outs: a single, a walk, and two GDP's. This is his 3rd straight year with this problem.
Being conscientious is an important element of "makeup." If Doogie had it as a strength he would never have put out on the extra weight that cratered his defense last year. Xander is having another outstanding year on defense, which means he worked at it in the off-season despite the big contract.
But it's a trait that can lead to putting pressure on yourself to succeed. And failing because you put too much pressure on yourself of course can lead to feeling more pressure. The possibility that Xander might struggle to to get out of this doom loop was, I thin, a factor in the team's approach to his contract extension.
Verdugo, meanwhile, is 4 for 6 with 2 BB and a HR in his 8 most important PA (LI > 2.2). That includes the 3 walk-offs, of course.
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Post by ericmvan on May 4, 2023 13:24:06 GMT -5
133 starting pitchers have faced 50+ batter in innings 1 to 3. Houck ranks 5th in xwOBA and 3rd in wOBA.
127 starters have faced 30+ hitters in innings 4 and on. Houck ranks 102nd in xwOBA and 118th in wOBA.
I had come to the conclusion a while ago that this was largely a stamina thing. The trouble he had getting the third out in his last start supports that.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 4, 2023 4:37:12 GMT -5
Who predicted that as of this date ...
Connor Wong, Jarren Duran, and Josh Winckowski would be 2-3-4 in Sox bWAR
Wong would be 2nd in MLB among catchers
Wincokwski would be 2nd in in MLB among relievers
Wong and Duran would rank 2nd and 5th in MLB in position player bWAR / 650 (minimum 60 PA)
Duvall and Duran would rank 1-2 in CF bWAR (minimum 30 PA)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 4, 2023 4:04:25 GMT -5
Another comeback from "losing" ( <= 25% chance of winning). Third time we've done it twice in a series and second we've done it back-to back (Angels in games 1 and 3, Brewer in games 2 and 3).
I note the Sox leader in WPA in each of these games and anoint him the "hero." How delicious is this list?
Adam Duvall Rafael Devers x 2 Yu Chang Reese McGuire Josh Wincowski Justin Turner Connor Wong Enmanuel Valdez
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 4, 2023 0:02:15 GMT -5
Corrected projected rotation:
Given the idea that they wouldn't want Sale or Paxton getting 7 days rest and possibly putting rust back on their mechanics, we can make a good guess at the rotation going forward (4 days rest except where noted):
Phillies Sale Kluber Houck OFF Braves Bello Sale (or Paxton) OFF Cardinals Paxton (6) (or Sale 6) Houck (5) Pivetta (10), Kluber (7), or Whitlock (TBD)
Mariners
Bello (5)
Sale (5)
Paxton
They don't need a 5th starter until the middle game of the Mariners' series, so Bello or both Bello and Sale could go a day earlier.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 3, 2023 23:41:28 GMT -5
Given the idea that they wouldn't want Sale or Paxton getting 7 days rest and possibly putting rust back on their mechanics, we can make a good guess at the rotation going forward (4 days rest except where noted):
Phillies Sale Kluber Houck OFF Braves Bello Sale OFF Cardinals
Paxton (6) Houck 5 Pivetta (10), Kluber (7), or Whitlock (TBD)
Mariners Sale (5) Paxton Houck
There is no day off in between the Cardinals series and Mariners series. Someone would need to pitch 2nd game of Mariners series to give Paxton 4 days between starts. Bello in this scenario would be the guy I think. Good catch. Half a brain cramp and probably half my inability to read my own notes. Of course after the last off day they don't need a 5th starter until the middle of the Mariners series. Revision forthcoming!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 3, 2023 11:24:25 GMT -5
If Jarren Duran turns out to be a well above average defender I am simply going to refuse to have an opinion about any young player ever again. He's in a 3-way tie for 4th in CF Success Rate Added among 34 qualifiers.
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Post by ericmvan on May 3, 2023 4:30:28 GMT -5
Given the idea that they wouldn't want Sale or Paxton getting 7 days rest and possibly putting rust back on their mechanics, we can make a good guess at the rotation going forward (4 days rest except where noted):
Phillies Sale Kluber Houck OFF Braves Bello Sale OFF Cardinals
Paxton (6) Houck 5 Pivetta (10), Kluber (7), or Whitlock (TBD)
Mariners Sale (5) Paxton Houck
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 3, 2023 4:06:40 GMT -5
It so happens that there does appear to be an adjustment period for some elite Japanese hitters who come to the states ... based on a sample size of two, Ichiro and Hideki Matsui.
You can't make this stuff up.
Both Ichiro and Matsui hit mild OPS bottoms on May 1.
Ichiro had a 109 wRC+ on that date an was 128 after, a gain of 19 points,
Matsui had an 82 wRC+ on this date and was 115 after, a gain of 33 points.
So, I'll be curious as to what numbers Masa has after May 1's game ...
Turned out to be 134. Ichiro finished 15 points better than he was on 5/1 and Matsui finished 27, so we can split the difference and add 21 to Masa to get 155 on the nose.
Last year that would have put him 6th in MLB. That seems like an unlikely outcome, but he's currently 147 and that would put him 8th.
(I'm not taking this too seriously, of course.)
I love the idea of Doogie and Masa 1 - 2; both guys get on base and make pitchers work.
I saw Ichiro and Matsui a decent amount, and as a pure hitter neither impressed me as much as Masa has, and it's not really close.
Duvall is better in LF than CF, and you could see Masa at DH, and Duran in CF going forward.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 3, 2023 0:13:17 GMT -5
I've finally found a succinct way to summarize a team's comeback / blown games performance.
A team can be said to be "winning" when their Win Probability hits 75% or above, and "losing" when it hits 25% or below.
Red Sox in games where they were winning at some point: 17-2 (.895).
Red Sox in games where they were losing at some point: 8-14 (.364).
Coolest thing: they have gone from winning to losing 5 times, and have now come back to win three times -- all of them in the last 14 games. In that stretch they are 3-1 in coming back and winning after blowing a significant lead (or runners on and outs made situation, like scoring a run and having men on 2nd and 3rd with no outs in the bottom of the first, as they had against Gray in the Twins game that ended with the Doogie walk-off).
And all the comebacks started immediately -- scoring 2 to tie the Twins in the bottom of the 10th before making an out, Turner and Masa going back-to-back to retake the lead against the Brewers in a span of 6 pitches, and tonight, slow motion in comparison after they got a run back without making an out, as it took them 3 outs to score 2 more runs and tie the game.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 2, 2023 22:42:38 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 2, 2023 10:00:06 GMT -5
Very fun facts ... fWAR and Win Probability Added ranks (PA)
Verdugo 17, 7 (134)
Duvall 36, 8 (37)
Chapman 1, 22(119)
Duran 32, 31 (57)
Betts 31, 45 (125)
Bogaerts 3, 52 (130)
A lot of Xander's fWAR is from defense, but among qualifiers, he's 23rd in wRC+, so 52nd in WPA means he's probably been un-clutch for the 4th straight year. Verdugo is 30th in wRC+.
Duvall + Duran (the killer D's!) combined are .04 behind Alvarez for WPA, way ahead of everyone else, and beat Chapman for the lead in fWAR by .02.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 2, 2023 4:40:58 GMT -5
Fun facts: Jarren Duran is not only 2nd in MLB in fWAR since his callup, he ranks 2nd of 32 in Success Rate Added for CF -- on the season.
Not fun: Kiké has made 72 errors at SS per 150 games.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 2, 2023 4:31:58 GMT -5
Kluber should not be the #1 pitcher on a staff...that is a problem. he is on my sh*t list after this debacle. He was very clearly signed to be the #6 guy, in that 5 guys projected to be better. But we opened the season with 2, 3, and 4 on the IL.
They're about to decide whether Paxton makes his debut in his next start or the one after. If the former, he'll very likely take Kluber's next turn. Next week they have both Monday and Thursday off, and I don't think they want to give anyone 6 days rest, so it's quite possible that after Pivetta's start Wednesday, neither him nor Kluber even get a chance to start until May 14 (last game of the Cardinals series), when they decide on a 5th starter ... which may well be Whitlock.
(How do they make room for Paxton? Has to be Brasier. Whitlock? Who knows. Bernardino has been better than Bleier, so far, and Crawford has been the 3rd best pitcher on the team by xwOBA and 4th by wOBV.
If they decide to start Kluber again in Phillie's game 2, I'll redo the above ...
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Post by ericmvan on May 2, 2023 0:36:29 GMT -5
Am I allowed to say I have no beef with the Jays or the O’s? I personally like the Rays. They might not have fans, but they do so much with so little it's remarkable. I'll be rooting for the splits or 2-1 Yankee victories. They have no chance.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 30, 2023 23:22:14 GMT -5
maybe yes, but maybe NOT. Starters are more valuable than reliever, I get that, but hopefully this will end the test. Yeah, they definitely have got to make a decision this season w/ him and stick to it. Last thing we need is another Daniel Bard disaster. For the umpteenth time, the conversion to starting had zero to do with Bards' collapse.
He was suddenly awful the previous September as a reliever, the main reason they missed the playoffs. The next year he was spectacular in his first start (17 swings and misses) which was ruined by the worst BABIP luck in history, 6/10 on grounders, none hit hard. He was then good for 2 starts, OK for 3 starts, and awful for 4 starts before they shut him down, and eventually he was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 28, 2023 10:09:25 GMT -5
Updated adjusted Win% (SOS):
.754 (.446) Rays .672 (.534) Jays .652 (.652) Sox .648 (.571) NYY
.602 (.422) O's
b-Ref's SRS:
3.4 TBR 1.9 Hou 1.9 ChC 1.8 Tex 1.5 Pit
1.2 Bos 1.1 Mil 1.1 Atl
0.8 NYY 0.7 Tor
0.7 Min
0.6 Bal 0.6 LAD
Where Sox would rank in divisions (by SRS)
First: AL Central, NL East, NL West Second: AL East, NL Central Third: AL West
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 26, 2023 12:22:01 GMT -5
They have an open 40-man spot and Goodrum and Sogard at Woo. So it's not as if they couldn't do better (and neither guy would likely be claimed when DFA'd).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 26, 2023 4:42:23 GMT -5
Duran ranks 7th out of 52 in CF Success Rate Added, and 26th of 196 in wRC+ starting with the date of his first game. The combo puts him 14th in fWAR in that time period. Mike Trout is 15th.
Duvall, BTW, ranks 51st defensively.
Over at SS ... Chang ranks 1st and Kiké last of 49. Yoshida is 16th of 47 and Verdugo 10th of 54. Devers is 14th of 52, and Arroyo 9th of 41. Casas is last of 38.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 24, 2023 15:26:33 GMT -5
AL East is playing .645 ball and the Central is playing .398. West is at .468.
NL is .522, .546, .439.
So far, NL Central is hugely improved since last year, AL Central even worse.
They really need to go to a conference - division structure when they expand to 32 teams. The 4-team divisions are just for a slight tweak in schedule. Playoff schedule is based on two 8-team conferences in each league.
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 24, 2023 14:52:59 GMT -5
Verdugo RF Devers 3B Turner DH Yoshida LF Hernández 2B Casas 1B Duran CF Wong C Chang SS I'm at the point where I think they should flip Casas and Duran. Casas may hit, but he's been walking at a good clip and clogs the bases, whereas Duran on base makes pitchers and catchers nervous and could actually help Casas. That or, if Duran is still hot in two weeks, bat him leadoff, Verdugo in the 2 and the rest keep their places in the conga line. Let Duran wreak havoc on the bases and get the pitchers off to bad starts. It can only benefit everyone else. This is backwards. Casas cannot be the last bat with power in the lineup, else his walks go wasted too often.
Put another way, given a guy who gets on base by walking and a guy who gets on base by hitting doubles, who hits first?
Meanwhile, "clogging the bases" is almost not a thing.
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 24, 2023 14:40:28 GMT -5
Bello optioned to Worcester and Bernardino recalled. I get it because the bullpen is short but I hate not having the best 5 starters in the rotation. So Kluber gets two more starts, tomorrow plus the first game of the Jays series.
Bello would be lined up with Pivetta but the latter would also get two starts (game 1 Guardians, game 3 Jays) before Bello could get another crack at the rotation.
And, yeah, let's hope that the potential downgrade from the two starts that Bello has in Worcester instead of MLB doesn't cost them ... but there's also an argument that he gets to where we know he can be quicker this way, and that you end up with at least a wash even if Kluber and/or Pivetta pitch poorly against the Jays. But it's hard to be happy seeing the likely eventual 6 and 7 starters
both going in the first series against the divisional rival that projects to be closest to us in the standings.
Edit: I'm forgetting that pitchers have to wait 15 days before recall. Let's hope that some unimportant pitcher is nursing a tiny injury that will allow Bello to be recalled after just a single, terrific start for Woo.
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 24, 2023 14:16:21 GMT -5
It should be obvious to posters how the well thought out depth is playing out. When your toughest question is which talent that's performing you have to shelve, you've done something right. A Tapia DFA to accommodate Duran when Duvall comes off the IL seems painless.
But accommodating Mondesi, let alone Mondesi and Story, is going to be tricky. You might eventually trade Arroyo, but you don't want to shed Arroyo until Mondesi is proven healthy and valuable.
On the pitching side, they have 15 guys who are either out of options or are too good to option (including Crawford). At some point there may well be a demote Crawford / trade Brasier dilemma.
The latter choice is much easier if you have a bunch of guys who are credible up-and-down options. Between Walter, Murphy, and Bernadino you hope to be able to render Joely Rodriguez surplus. The difference between Brasier and Ort / Kelly / Mills doesn't seem worth sweating over, but right now only one of the alternatives is healthy (Ort seems likely to go down when Paxton is ready).
In the long run you might up with the current roster with Paxton and Martin for Ort and Brasier, in the unlikely event that everyone is healthy, and Mata and the three righties and three lefties as the guys who fill in for guys on the IL.
That staff would have as many as three long relievers (e.g., Pivetta, Kluber, Crawford) depending on health of the other starters. If there's a 3-run lead or deficit after 5 or 6, you'd just bring in the freshest of that group to go the rest of the way or until things get tight again. You'd also use a 6th stater (the best of the surplus guys) once or twice whenever the schedule goes weeks without an off day.
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