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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 3, 2024 16:34:22 GMT -5
Pivetta had a very rough rehab start, but if he has another, that's actually better regardless of how well he just pitched.
All the talk about his being ready for the Braves series turns out to make no sense. Right now we're set to have Crawford on 5 days rest and Houck on 4 -- if we insert Pivetta in there, Houck ends up pitching on six days rest, at home against the Nats rather than on the road against the Braves.
Give Pivetta another rehab start, on Tuesday, and he returns to MLB on the 12th. Bello has been reported to be having a rehab start on Tuesday and that seems to be a "why not?" decision given the two off-days in 4 days coming up; there's just no room for five pitchers.
If Bello starts on Monday, that would fit perfectly:
Houck opener TBD and Anderson Criswell --off--- Crawford (5) Houck --off --- Criswell Bello Pivetta (Nats)
Crawford (5) Houck (5) Criswell (Rays at hone)
... continuing on 4 days rest. Sox have 13 games without a break here, all against teams that are at present below average.
If Bello starts on Tuesday, Winck gets one more start and Crawford and Houck get 6 days rest, which is questionable.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 3, 2024 12:53:22 GMT -5
If traveled back in time and said to you 5 months ago that a month into the season the mostly home grown Boston Red Sox starting rotation was arguably the best in baseball you'd laugh.....really really hard, and then maybe cry that we still hadn't signed Monty/Snell, who no one is talking about anymore. Not everyone would laugh! Me on October 4: "The projected 2024 roster here has [Tanner Houck] in the bullpen. I'll assert right now that he has a better chance of getting a CY vote than he does of pitching mostly in relief."
Later that day, julyanmorley: "Pivetta added a sweeper midway through the season and it was his best pitch. 116 strikeouts and 22 walks in 82 innings from July through the end of the season." I replied "Yes yes yes" and ran his wOBA and xwOBA numbers, which were elite.
It went on from there. By the 26th I was also high on Crawfors and finished "You know things are looking up when the pitcher who least excites "you" (in this case, me) in terms of taking a major step forward from 2023 value is Bryan Bello."
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 1, 2024 14:38:18 GMT -5
It seems that Refsnyder will be the guy in the lineup to replace him. And they'll keep Hamilton of the roster for the time being. He can pinch-run, and if they need to replace an OF mid-game they just move Rafaela to the OF and put Short or Hamilton at short.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 1, 2024 14:23:37 GMT -5
It seems to me that they believe that Smith will be more valuable on the roster, down the road, than Dalbec (who also gets to play every day and locale his talent) and ditto for Short and Hamilton. Not much of a downside if they prove to be wrong, except for the need to open up a 40-man slot. The latter makes the idea that they are just covering for Yoshida's IL stint less credible.
One possibility for the latter is to trade Mata to a team with thin pitching where he projects to be valuable enough to keep on the MLB roster down the road ... which does not seem to be the case with us.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 1, 2024 13:42:22 GMT -5
xwOBA and / wOBA of all the stating or bulk pitchers. Note the pattern.
For amusement I've added the depth chart position at the start of the spring.
.271 / .245 Crawford [4]
.281 / .236 Houck [5]
.289 / .251 Criswell [8]
.298 / .231 Pivettta [3
.304 / .287 Bello [2]
.327 / .283 Whitlock [6]
.359 / .275 Winckoswki (2 G) [7]
.350 / .314 Anderson (all ) .541 / .660 start (1) [9]
Huge apparent contribution from defensive positioning.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 30, 2024 17:33:07 GMT -5
BTW, going into today's games the Sox were in sole position of second place in b-Ref's SAS metric, 0.1 runs per game ahead of O's and 0.2 ahead of the Braves. A more normal performance by the Cubs' position player pitchers would have them behind the O's and tied with or 0.1 back of the Braves. There's a big gap pf 0.4 down to the Yankees and Dodgers.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 30, 2024 12:05:22 GMT -5
Mishmash of thoughts... Uwasawa is addition by subtraction. He's not Joely taking away lefty time from Bernardino and Booser. It wouldn't take a lot. On the other hand, Joely will likely return a prospect or at minimum, cash, more than offsetting Cooper cash. Beleive it or not there are teams with worse (or no) lefties than him, Seattle for example (I haven't looked at Seattle since we played them). Lefties have more lives than Dalbec. I doubt if we will get anything for Reyes but I think he's likely to get claimed. Cash if we're lucky. As far as who goes for Grissom, I think it will be Valdez although Dalbec or Hamilton both also make sense. Whoever stays is likely to see a lot of bench time. If Masa will be out for a week or so, Valdez will likely stay. I was hoping for Votto but also very happy with Cooper. The only move that makes sense now is the obvious one, sending Valdez back down. He's made himself a solid or good 2B in terms of range, but isn't adept at any other infield position, so he's not a viable bench component. Hamilton is now the backup 2B and SS and Dalbec the backup 1B and 3B. If they need to go 3 deep or juggle guys around, Dalbec has played RF and SS, Grissom SS, 3B, and LF, and Hamiltion CF, all within the last 2 years. The only thin position is 1B, where Refsnyder is the third option.
If Masa is out a few games, you still have four outfielders, and we can continue the Ref plays against RF thing.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 29, 2024 11:51:27 GMT -5
This is awesome. I hear he bats over .200, could hit cleanup for us! I jest, but still, he's a big upgrade offensively. Bobby's D has been refreshing, so I hope Cooper can carry that water on some level as well. I expect they'll DFA Dalbec, but I could see a Hamilton or Dalbec option with a 60-day DL for Mata or Walter instead. Advantage would be keeping depth?? I still can't get over that Bobby can be patient on pitches outside the zone AND hit in AAA, but can't even make solid contact in the show. There's a legit hitter in there somewhere (not great, but capable of hitting .220 or so at least). Dalbec hit 33 HRs - .269 BA - .938 OPS last year in Worcester. He is a legitimate All-star in AAA, maybe even a AAA MVP, but it has not translated into the MLB. It is both interest and strange that the contrast is so huge. I want to point out again that when he was recalled last September he was the best hitter on the team for a week. His problem is not that he can't hit MLB pitching. It's that he's a JBJ type, and the puzzle is why he has a very good hot to cold ratio in AAA and a very bad one in MLB. There's probably a psychological component, at this point.
And I don't think he's going anywhere. Since Valdez can only play 2B, he's obviously going down to make room for Grissom. That leaves Dalbec and Hamilton as the possibilities to make room for Cooperr, and Hamilton has never played an inning at 3B or 1B. The last time they found themselves with no backup 1B, they had Refsnyder work out there, and he hadn't played there is years ... because he'd been lousy at it. He was and remains the emergency back-up.
Viewed another way, if you keep Hamilton, what is his role? Pinch-runner, but for who? Cooper, but who then plays first? Reyes, but he's also your backup at SS, 2B, and 3B. Hamilton is behind Reyes as backup SS, so he's also the guy who plays SS when Reyes is at one of the other three positions he's the primary backup for.
Dalbec has played great defense at 1B, and he has a chance doing something good with the bat. That's kind of the definition of a backup, no?. And you just can't have Reyes backing up all four infield positions.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 29, 2024 0:34:59 GMT -5
The updated SRS rankings:
2.1 Guardians 1.6 Braves 1.6 Red Sox 1.5 Orioles 1.2 Royals 1.1 Yankees 1.0 Dodgers
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 26, 2024 13:50:21 GMT -5
B-ref has the Sox as tied for the 4th best team in MLB, while the Cubs are in a 4-way tie for 9th.
How can that be?
The Sox have played 10 games against the 3 best teams in baseball, while the Cubs have played none against the top 5.
The Cubs have played 10 games against the 5 worst teams in baseball while the Sox have yet to play 1.
Excluding these extremes the Sox are 12-4 and the Cubs are 8 -7.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 25, 2024 4:34:11 GMT -5
By the end of the year, Rafaela, not Story or Mayer will be thought of as the shortstop of the future. I very much doubt that ... for one thing, his ability to plat multiple positions could be of real value. I'm thinking Tony Phillips here.
Meanwhile ...
2.0 Brewers 1.8 Guardians 1.8 Orioles 1.5 Red Sox 1.3 Braves
That of course is bRef's SRS, run differential adjusted for schedule strength.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 24, 2024 22:02:32 GMT -5
Is that supposed to be 2023 & 2024? LOL! Or course. You might guess that I never got the nap I needed -- a baseball game started and was unexpectedly interesting.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 24, 2024 21:16:46 GMT -5
Is there any chance the plan to throw off their breaking pitches rather than their fastballs is part of the reason for this? I need a nap badly, but the first thing I'm doing when I awake is to look at the degree of fastball reduction for each pitcher. If Crawford and Houck have the least change, that would be telling. Well, this is not reassuring. The number is the % of pitches other than fastballs (4-seamers and sinkers)
Name 2023 2024 Added Whitlock 47.1 77.3 30.2 Pivetta 49.4 67.2 17.8 Bello 43.0 60.3 17.3 Houck 60.5 71.0 10.5 Winckowski 57.6 67.5 9.9 Crawford 60.8 70.6 9.8
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 24, 2024 16:34:18 GMT -5
...not really ever a witch hunt guy but do we have a training staff/conditioning issue or something Is there any chance the plan to throw off their breaking pitches rather than their fastballs is part of the reason for this? I need a nap badly, but the first thing I'm doing when I awake is to look at the degree of fastball reduction for each pitcher. If Crawford and Houck have the least change, that would be telling.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 24, 2024 15:58:21 GMT -5
Crawford could (in theory) go tomorrow on 4 days rest rather than the 5 he's been planning on.
Winck would then have game 1 of the Cubs series and Houck game 3, but they'd have no one for game 2. Having Pivetta skip a rehab start would ordinarily be a bad idea, but ... it may still be a bad idea. The Cubs' 64 wRC+ is minor-league quality, but if it turns out that he needs 2 or more rehab starts, you're hosed. The Giants, up next, have a 100 and his third start would be against the Braves. Right now, I' might take the gamble. Maybe.
OR (if it's too late to change Crawford's date) ...
Crawford on his existing schedule and a bullpen game tomorrow ... Criswell would have to go somewhat deep tonight to male that work. That would solve the Cubs problem.
They have an off day between the Cubs and Giants and another a week later, so that will help.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 24, 2024 14:57:49 GMT -5
All 5 of the Red Sox starters have plus "karma", i.e., their wOBA is less than their xwOBA. The odds of that being random are 2^5, or 1 in 32.
I got curious. The Sox have the second best starting pitcher karma in MLB. Do the champs, the Rangers, have all of their regular starters with good karama?
Yes they do! As do #3 Mets and #4 Padres. Now the odds are 1 in 1,048,576.
I think that "karma" here is defensive positioning.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 24, 2024 14:40:38 GMT -5
Justin Slaten has (so far) 3 plus pitches, which is to say, he has starter's stuff, and quite possibly good starter's stuff. He's thrown 34 pitches twice. Stretching him out is a no-brainer.
Meanwhile, Fitts had a great outing a week ago and just had his worst one pitching at 11 AM on six days rest. I'd throw our that outing while projecting him. He'll be here sooner than later.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 24, 2024 14:00:14 GMT -5
Guardians, Brewers, Orioles, Braves, Red Sox.
That's the five best teams in MLB, according to bRef's SRS.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 23, 2024 17:02:49 GMT -5
Per Chris Cotillo - “ Cora says Red Sox/Guardians are in communication with MLB about weather and that they may not play. Doubleheader tomorrow if not. WooSox in Toledo, about two hours away, were rained out.” Presume they'd play 2 tomorrow. That sets up a Cubs series of Crawford, Winck, and No Idea (because Houck has been pushed back a day). Maybe a bullpen game with Criswell contributing on 3 days rest.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 23, 2024 3:46:05 GMT -5
Much that is mind-boggling has happened this year, but I think this takes the cake.
No, it's not that the Sox are the 8th best team in MLB according to B-Ref's SRS (schedule-adjusted run differential) even though neither Devers nor Casas is are in our top 12 in bWAR. That's the runner-up.
You might guess that Kutter Crawford leads all MLB starter in bWAR. But who has been the top reliever?
Yup ... Justin Slaten.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 22, 2024 18:09:19 GMT -5
I'm all for crazy hypotheticals- Also not falling for it. Tanner has added a cutter this year, (he's not throwing it a lot but something worth noting).Dropped his 4 seam fastball entirely. But the biggest change in Houck is the splitter. Splitter. Splitter. Splitter. That extra inches in vertical drop is the difference between a LHB fouling off the pitch or spitting on it, versus not recognizing more spin and swinging through it (or making weak contact.) The foul pitches drives up the pitch count, where he can't make it past 5 innings, (can't put batters away). And thank you. Tanner has added a cutter this year, (he's not throwing it a lot but something worth noting)
He threw it 187 times last year, with good results (.308 xwOBA, .285 wOBA).
Re the splitter ...
First of all, there are large differences in pitch movement from to game. In Houck's first start last year the threw the splitter twice in the first 3 innings and averaged 42.7 inches of drop! He threw it three more times but managed only 34.8.
Second, there is this thing called "gravity" that causes all pitches to drop at a fixed rate. The lower the velocity, the more time goes by for the pitch to drop. So pitch drop including gravity is combining two different things. You know who has more vertical drop (measured this way) that Houck, on any pitch you can name? Me! At my age I've probably shed 10 or 15 pounds of muscle, so I don't think I can get the ball to home plate. That's 75 inches of drop!
Seriously, the way you measure this is to exclude gravity, and Statcast has that data, too. (I don't blame you for this mes. Rather, the completely clueless clown who cited the data on X.)
There are 127 pitchers who have thrown a change or splitter 20 or more times this tear. Tanner Houck ranks third in most downward with -2.6 inches (where negative means the spin on the ball caused it to go down relative to gravity), trailing only Cooper Criswell and Logan Webb. That's -2.6 plus or minus 1.4. He's had games with -3.3, -0.8, -1.0, and -4.0.
Where was he at this point in the season last year, after four starts? Second to Webb, with -1.6 plus or minus 1.4. Note that the one inch difference in years is smaller than the variance (plus or minus), so the difference is not significant.
As I have have been mentioning all winter and spring, Houck was the second best pitcher in MLB last year when he got hurt -- through inning three, before he hit the stamina wall, which no loner exists. A big part of that was the already elite splitter. He had a .159 xwOBA and .110 wOBA with the splitter through inning three -- better numbers than this year overall.
------
If you think about pitching a baseball, you'll see that it is extremely difficult to avoid putting backspin on the ball without contorting the hand to go over the ball in the curveball grip. The average off-speed pitch has 5 inches of rise relative to gravity.
The "sinker" is the same: it rises a lot less than a four-seamer, but almost without exception, it still rises relatively.
Whose sinker sinks the most, in all of MLB? The average is 9 inches of rise ... Houck led last year with -1.0. He leads so far with year with 0.4, but that's 0.3, 0.5, 0.8. -0.8.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 20, 2024 4:57:03 GMT -5
There are three questions you have to answer (in the form of projections) in order to make the SS decision.
1) If you put Abreu in right, move O'Neill from right to left, and Duran from left to center replacing Rafalea, how much defense do you lose?
2) What is the defensive impact of replacing Hamilton with Rafaela at SS?
3) If you replace Hamilton with Abreu in the lineup, how much offense do you gain?
Until two games ago the last of these was a ball of confusion. Abreu had had just two projected legit hits (hard hit with xBA > .500), and they were on on 3/31 (single off of Cody Bolton, 109.6, .717) and 4/3 (single off of Stripling, 102.9, .763). Statcast had his back-to-back two-hit games (4/11, 4/13) as luck, and sure enough, he went 0 for his next 15.
He had gone 28 AB without a projected legit hard hit when he doubled off of Carrasco on Thursday (100.4, .934).
And yesterday he added a homer (109.1, .95) and another double (103.6, .51) -- his first two barrels of the season.
Total bases on legit hard hits:
2 in first 36 AB. 8 in subsequent 7.
And now it seems that the offensive upgrade is so large that you don't even need to look at the other two questions. Cora seems to agrree.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 18, 2024 4:07:16 GMT -5
I don't think they'd been doing anything wrong! Crawford and Pivetta took big steps forward last season. Houck and Whitlock have had injury/stamina problems but they both had track records of being good. Bello developed on the last guys' watch. Maybe Breslow and Bailey were able to ratchet these guys up another level, but the trend precedes them. Yeah I agree with this in theory but if “stamina” was such a simple thing to solve for, there would be a lot more really good SPs across the league. So far Houck and Whitlock have looked way better. This is all still fun with small samples anyway, but it’s hard not to turn your head at it. Then again, experience only helps and they would have had more of that regardless of who was in charge, and I’m definitely of the opinion that Bloom got the short end of the stick. I have heard multiple players sat that they had no idea how much work was necessary to be in shape to go deep in games. It seems to require an obsession to be as good as you can be.
Does this sequence of ERA's ring a bell?
(3.38) 5.01 3.27 4.03 3.86 5.78 2.89 (5.23)
That's Josh Beckett, with the first entry the year before we traded for hom, and the last his ERA when we dealt him to the Dodgers.
That sure looks like he's rewarding himself for each good season by taking it easy that winter, right? And in fact there is no difference among those seasons unilll you hit pitch 50. All the difference comes afterward.
By all accounts all of the 5 starters have this obsession to various degrees. It was very obvious in Pivetta and Houck's "My Story" entries, and Crawford went fron up-and-down guy to CY possibility by sheer hard work.
I do think the previous administration left it up to the players, while the new regime is (consciously or by nature) installing or reinforcing an attitude.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 18, 2024 3:11:03 GMT -5
34 percent usage of the splitter for Houck. Completely different pitcher with a effective third pitch now. He had it last year; that's how he became the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB up to his injury, but just through the third inning. (After that he was 25th worst, out of 150).
The main difference: two winters ago he was unable to work out after having had surgery. Last winters he worked his butt off to increase his stamina, with a boost in velo as a bonus. The "times around the order" effect is, on the whole, entirely about stamina rather that pitch variety. (Think Justin Verlander, who in his 2022 CY year threw his #4 pitch, his change, twice a game.)
The new regime gave all of the starters individual workout plans, and everyone has had their pitch usage tweaked. The latter is the secondary change from last year
Houck and Crawford are serious CY candidates.
(Yes, I'll continue to point this out as long as its necessary! No shame to get it wrong, as that's what everyone has been taught.)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 17, 2024 19:44:43 GMT -5
No luck needed: Houck expected hits, 2.9.
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