SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Recent Posts
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,021
|
Post by ericmvan on Dec 5, 2023 3:37:11 GMT -5
(I imagine that folks are using the "predict the roster" thread for this, just as they were using this thread for pitching. It deserves some on-topic attention.
I actually think 11 or 12 of the 13 spots are spoken for. First, Jen McCaffrey at The Athletic has kept on top of the Yoshida LF / DH issue: The other thing worthy of note is that the Red Sox have no starting pitchers who put significant extra stress on the outfield defense.
You can't measure this with simple GB and FB rates. A high-K pitchers gets outs without using the defense at all.The correct metric is:
Air Balls [FB + LD] / (Air Balls + GB + SO + Popups). I did that for last year's starters and converted the results to a + score where 100 is MLB average.
Name AB+
------ ---
Pivetta 103
Crawford 98
Sale 98
Houck 86
Bello 83
So, Yoshida is in LF, most of the time. You'll want at him at DH on the road, when one of the three neutral pitchers are starting, and when there's also a big or tricky LF and/or an opposing lineup full of flyball hitters.
This of course makes room Turner, who hugely wants to return to the Sox.
And here's Breslow on the reality of Turner's value in the clubhouse (again from McCaffrey): "It’s a subjective evaluation for sure, but that is very, very different than saying it doesn’t matter," and then he mentions "the value ... of an additional coach on staff or someone who can get an entire clubhouse moving in the same direction."
So as soon as Ohtani signs, all the losers will make their offers to Turner, and he and the Sox will know what a fair price is. The same thing is very likely to happen with Duvall, who was born to hit in Fenway.
Wong, Casas, Devers, Story, Duran, and the aforementioned trio gives you 8 starters. McGuire, Refsnyder, and, Reyes are on the bench. The Angels are likely waiting until they lose Ohtani before trading Brandon Drury ... if he goes elsewhere, the Sox will find a different plus defender who hits righty for2B.
So, what do we want from guy # 13 ?
The standard bench is backups for catcher, middle infielder, and corner infielder, plus a fourth OFer. The Sox will have the regular DH as the corner IF backup, and when he's in that role, the LF will be at DH. So you want a 5th outfielder.
You also have 5 LF hitters and 7 RH hitters, and one of the 5 lefties is the backup catcher. 5 vs. 8 would be a huge imbalance, so you want a lefty bat.
Of course we already have two outfielders who hit lefty: Alex Verdugo and Wilyer Abeu. And this decision is way trickier than it seems. I'm going to put that in the Verdugo trade thread.
---- Batting order vs. RHP looks strong on paper.
Duran Casas Story Devers Tuner Yoshida Duvall (or Verdugo) Wong 2B
If Stoy is struggling he swaps with Turner. And there are days when you swap Duran and Yoshida, and if Verdugo exists, Duran and him.
Note that putting two LHB back-to-back is not a problem. If needed, you pinch-hit Refsnyed for Duran, and (if applicable) Duvall for Verdugo. Just the threat of that will scare opposing managers away.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,021
|
Post by ericmvan on Dec 2, 2023 3:06:28 GMT -5
Brayan Bello had two huge splits: four days rest vs. five or more, and day vs. night. Both of these are about rest. Extra day, extra hours of sleep. All of the following numbers are xwOBA adjusted for opposing team's offense over the season, vs. RHP. The translations of xwOBA into rotation slots (on an average team) has the top 15 pitchers as aces (because we wouldn't call then aces if there were enough to go around), and then groups of 30, which leaves the last 15 guys as needing replacement. This system happens to put the line between #3 and#4 exactly at MLB average, which seems right, right?
------ Time Off
.360 (7 G, 154 PA) 4 days rest .303 (21 G, 514 PA) 5 or more days. .360 is a somewhat below average #5 starer, while .303 is a slightly below average #2. A further breakdown: .296 (15 G, 365 PA) 5 days rest .313 (6 G, 149 PA) 6+ days
.296 is a great #2 , while .313 is a good #3. ----- Like Day vs. Night (because it is!)
.353 (10 G, 220 PA) Day .296 (18 G, 448 PA) Night Similar numbers, eh? Here the bad split gets promoted from "somewhat" to "slightly" below average #5. It's kind of cute that the best conditions for each of the splits differ by just .000. But this doesn't tell you that much. You want to break it down 6 ways, 3 x 2, with the 3 being short, normal, and long rest. I mean, what if all his games with extra rest came at night? Which is exactly what happened. And that's where it gets really interesting.
------ On the 6th Day He Rested (damn, again?)
To begin with, after the ASB he had 8 days of rest, and had an xwOBA of .191. Remove that, as you should, and his longer-rest goes from .313 to .337, which is worst #4 starter. What to make of this? It's very likely that his experience with 6 days rest was minimal, right? Which means he had no between-game throwing regimen for it, and likely did what the team told him to. And it didn't work. But you'd like to hope that he worked on that regimen over the season. We're not looking for a statistically significant result with just 5 starts, but a trend in the right direction would be a good sign. So here are the starts: .389 (5/17) .389 (5/30) (Really!) .310 (6/18) .321 (7/26) .293 (9/27) OK, I set you up. If you just number the starts 1 to 5, and use that as the dependent variable, that trend is statistically significant, p = .035.
It could still be random, of course (1 chance in 28). But it sure looks like Bello, who by all reports is both smart and a dedicated and had worker, figured out a routine that worked for him.
Now, if we were to find another such improvement, we'd be that much more confident that he does this, right? ----- As You Wish ... or, Normal Rest, Short Sleep Bello had 7 of his day game starts on 5 days rest (starts 1 through 4, and 7 through 9), and 3 on four days. Here are the 7 rested game results: .371 (4/14) .375 (4/23) .380 (4/29) .270 (6/5) .354 (8/24) .218 (9/4) .260 (9/10) Even with the August hiccup, that is also statistically significant, p=.048. Every article online about work schedules for MLB players references night games only. But my guess is that starting pitchers arrive by 10 AM or earlier for day games. If Bello goes to bed after midnight, that's going to be tough for him. I will spare you the complete explanation of sleep bed-times, and just note that most night-owls make things worse by exposing themselves to blue (other than red, really) light, in the evening, which fakes out the brain into thinking it's still daytime. If someone told him about this after April, and he started a project of finding how early he needed to go to all red-light, that would explain what we see. August could well be, "hey, that really worked, maybe I don't need to start that early."
(There are other way to get extra sleep, of course, but the pattern works with those as well.)
Opposites Intrigue: Short Rest, Normal Sleep
The four night games on 4 days rest are very interesting. Overall he's .306, somewhat below average #2. BUT ... .355 (5/4) .279 (6/23) .421 (8/29) .199 (9/15) This is also hone, road, home, road. That's .386 at home and .239 on the road.
The odds of the results happening by chance are 1 in 10, but if you look at the average event in each of the two sets, it just misses significance (p = .057).
His kid arrived too late to explain the first home game, but of course there are plenty of reasons why behaviors might be different (in either direction) home vs. road. I think this is probably for real, but they if go to a 6-day rotation it may well not happen again.
---- The Other Split Splits ...
Which are his Worst and Best situations.
1) Short Rest Day Games
Annihilation. .495 on 7/19, .367 on 8/12, .514 on 9/20 = .445. This suggests that he's still a bit sleep-shy for day games, but it's not an issue unless he's also lacking rest both ways. Again, they should keep him off short rest as much as possible.
2) Immediate Upside ...
a/k/a Optimum-Rest Night Games
It's just 8 games, with 205 PA.
It's .280, which is an average ace. Obviously he's not that good (wait for it ... wait for it ... yet). Two ways of looking at this: Given that he had splits that were both good and bad, it makes good sense to regress the .280 to the mean, and that's .295 (by my metric), which is the best #2 in the game. That's credible for his 8 ideal games, I think.
And obviously, if you took the best split from every pitcher who has them, .280 is likely not extra-special. But that just stresses the importance of getting your pitchers into the situations where they're at their best. Bonus Feature: The Second-Half "Fade"!
The first pair is before the ASB and the second one is after. Split G xwOBA G xwOBA
Night-5 5 .265 3 .303
Day-5 4 .341 3 .290
Night-6+ 3 .359 3 .268
Night-4 2 .312 2 .300
Day-4 0 3 .445
He was .312 in the first half, and .289 in the second excluding the death combo, which he never had to face in the first half. The .265 in his most common situation would have ranked him 3rd in MLB if sustained for a whole season, so that was likely due for regression. The resulting .303 (still a bit below average #2) was more than offset by improvements in the others. Meanwhile, the 3 ultra-tough games boosted his overall number to .317. So there's .028 of illusory struggles.
His adjustment for opponent hitting went from adding .004 (meaning the opposition was .004 below average) to subtracting it, so that adds another .008.
But both of those pale in comparison to his luck and defensive support on balls in play. In the first half his wOBA was .295, so that's .017 of good luck / defense. In the second half it was .373, an amazing .056 of unearned badness. That's another .073 of mirage decline (relative to the first half), for a total of .109!
And yes, wOBA - xwOBA is almost entirely luck and defense. If anyone disagrees, we can talk. Conclusion: Throwing You a Changeup
Of the 72 pitchers who had 100+ PA end with a changeup, Bello ranked 8th with a .210 xwOBA -- but none of the 7 guys with more success approached his 626 pitches and 172 PA. (Next best was Nick Martinez with 504 /141.) It's well-established that the more you throw a good pitch, the less effective it becomes, so it's likelier than not that Bello had the best change in MLB.
A good thing, because that was his only pitch that was above average. That he still finished with a .315 -- a somewhat above-average #3 -- was impressive for a rookie with one reliable pitch.
What, you say? Even his sinker --a glorious pitch to watch, when he has it working -- was subpar? Yes : .343.
But I gave it away, didn't I? When he had it working.
In his 11 starts from 5/10 to 7/19, he had a .280 in 98 PA. But in 5 earlier and 12 later starts, he had a .408 and .371 (46 and 120 PA).
(At present I have no plans to break down all of his pitches. Ha!)
Consistent execution of your pitches, for both command and movement ... that is very big. It sure looks like Bello has resolved his day / night problem, so this is his final frontier. And man, if I were Andrew Bailey I'd be over the moon with excitement at helping a talent this large achieved that step.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,021
|
Post by ericmvan on Nov 29, 2023 5:29:05 GMT -5
I remember Heymen saying Max Scherzer will sign with west coast team only because of family reason but he signed with the Mets. Yamamoto will go where the money is they always do.False. For instance ...
The Red Sox outbid the Mariners for Adrian Beltre the first time he was a free agent. They wanted to use him at SS for a year until
Bill Mueller's contract was up.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,021
|
Post by ericmvan on Nov 25, 2023 4:03:05 GMT -5
Is everyone else tired of hearing the 2023 starters' collective ERA, or rank in MLB?
So here's an antidote. (All the rankings are by xwOBA, and when appropriate (*) they and competitors are regressed to the mean, i.e., adjusted for sample sizes.
1st. Rank of Chris Sale among all SP in baseball in the time frame after he got the rust and before he got hurt again (6 starts).
2nd. Rank of Tanner Houck among all SP, first three innings, at the time he got hurt.
6th (tie). * Rank of Nick Pivetta among top 150 pitchers in PA, beginning 6/26 (two days before he introduced his sweeper).
6th (tie). * Seasonal rank of Kutter Crawdord as a starer or bulk pitcher (top 150 pitchers), with no runners in scoring position.
Next up, Bello's splits, them comment in this one.
(Note that I included Pivetta's relief outings because they were actually worse than his his starts / bulk, while I excluded Crawfirds' because they were better. I did include his virtual bulk outing, which turned out to be almost nullified by his sample-size adjustmen)t
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,021
|
Post by ericmvan on Nov 21, 2023 22:35:49 GMT -5
On 9/19 I had him at -15 runs per 150 G (Statcast for plays made, average of DRS and UZR for arm, plus DRS "good plays made").
Cora said he was just -1 in September, which is -6 for the season, and that is playable, especially when half your games are in Fenway.
I just ran the final numbers and he was -13.
I'm pretty sure he went from 0 to 1 "Good Plays Made," and that has to be a rounding illusions (e.g actually 0.45 to 0.55).
That leaves him roughly league average over his last 9 games.
It's a small sample size, but it's still promising. And it has huge implications on re-signing Justin Turner. Look for a thread on that.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,021
|
Post by ericmvan on Nov 21, 2023 21:43:35 GMT -5
We all remember how mediocre he was, overall, in 2019, before he was shut down for what proved to be TJ.
What I had forgotten (I'm sure others remember) was that he got killed an his first and third starts and was otherwise meh in the other first 4.
And then he was tremendous for 9 starts, before he started fading a couple of months earlier than usual. In that stretch he had a .219 xwOBA, .001 behind Verlander as the best in MLB, and .025 ahead of #3 Ryu.
This last year he had 5 so-so starts shaking off the rust of nealy years of inactivity ... and then was the best pitcher in MLB for six starts, before getting hurt again.
A healthy and properly rested Sale is still as good as any pitcher in MLB. The dual challenge is to figure out just how much rest he needs to stay himself into the playoffs, and the best way to give him that rest--shorter outings, more days between starts, or a combo of both.
Sale was essentially on a 5-days-rest schedule in 2023. Should they try to continue that? It might be useful for younger guys like Bello and Crawford, not to mention Garrett "Kid Gloves" Whitlock to go every 6th day. Even Pivetta was throwing every 6th day most of the time when he went back into the rotation and excelled. Should they try a 6-man rotation, then? Let's say you sign a big-name FA -- it might be tough to work that arm in every 5th day if the rest of the staff is on an every 6th-day routine. Maybe when the ace's 5-day routine bumps into another pitcher's 6-day routine, you either bump that other pitcher for one start or you give your ace an extra day of rest. You'd probably only need to do that in long stretches of no off days. Unless... you sign a pitcher whose first and last names both start with Y (at least when transcribed into our language). I get that you don't want to reduce the number of starts for your big name FA acquisition but has he been throwing once a week like a lot of NPB pitchers do? Maybe to break YY into MLB life, he could go every 6th day. For reference Ohtani and Senga both pitched mostly every 6th day in 2023; Snell, Montgomery, Nola, Cole all were about half and half, 4 or 5 days rest. Just some food for thought. Bello was awful all year on 4 days rest. And they gave him 5 coming off his 1-outing rehab stint. Look for a post on his splits (including day / night) in the next few days (Thanksgiving excluded).
Crawford was awful overall on 4 days rest. I'm doing his splits next.
As you point out, Sale was treated like he needed 5 days (starting only 3 times with 4 days), and if we were to sign a Japanese free agent SP, that would ease his transition to less rest.
I think the only reason that teams haven't gone to a six-day rotation is that most teams struggle to have 5 good pitchers. I think it's no-brainer for the '04 Sox.
(A 5 day rotation means that when you have an off day, you skip one guy, unless it's felt that the whole team needs an extra day. You have 3 starters with bullpen experience, and you can set up the rotation so that one of them can always be skipped--and used in in relief instead, if that makes sense.)
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,021
|
Post by ericmvan on Nov 19, 2023 21:42:56 GMT -5
To think Sox fans are worried of a top ten Cy-Young finish for Chris Sale. Mass made MJ legal right? Where does rational kick in? It will be 4 seasons since the 34 YO pitched 147 innings and he passed 43 IP last year for the first time in 3 seasons at his age 34 season. If you in any way shape or form think he's something we can depend upon ANYthing beyound a fifth starter AND think we can be considered contenders without saying a minimum of 2 top end starters then well there really isn't anything that needs to be said EVEN if he actually does come through. At best he should only be considered a back-end starter. Give me just one example of any pitcher who’s missed the time he has at his age who came through. Now even after all your research you happen to find one, it would actually be proof against you, as it would be the exception that proves the rule and not the point of the rule. I beg any of you who think otherwise to stop thia nonsense. If somehow he has one last exceptional season consider it hitting the lottery, count your blessings and move on. Not sure worried is the right word, but when Chris Sale is healthy he pitches like one of the top 20 best pitchers in the AL. He’s not a backend starter when on the mound, the issue is just being there sufficiently often. Anyways the whole point of discussing the option is that if he does have a good season they can’t move on because the option would vest, but they wouldn’t want to anyways. We all remember how mediocre he was, overall, in 2019, before he was shut down for what proved to be TJ.
What I had forgotten (I'm sure others remember) was that he got killed an his first and third starts and was otherwise meh in the other first 4.
And then he was tremendous for 9 starts, before he started fading a couple of months earlier than usual. In that stretch he had a .219 xwOBA, .001 behind Verlander as the best in MLB, and .025 ahead of #3 Ryu.
This last year he had 5 so-so starts shaking off the rust of nealy years of inactivity ... and then was the best pitcher in MLB for six starts, before getting hurt again.
A healthy and properly rested Sale is still as good as any pitcher in MLB. The dual challenge is to figure out just how much rest he needs to stay himself into the playoffs, and the best way to give him that rest--shorter outings, more days between starts, or a combo of both.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,021
|
Post by ericmvan on Nov 18, 2023 20:01:28 GMT -5
We talk about Urias bouncing back…he really only had what? Like 1 month of bad baseball? He had a .360 obp here and had 2 good years in a row going into last season He’s probably gonna be fine He did slash .225 / .371 / .337, for a wOBA of .321
I recall him getting a bunch of cheap, lucky hits ... . Yup, he had a .187 / .330 / .332 expected batting line, and that's a .305 xwOBA, and that's below the MLB average for 2B, which is .315.
Over his last three years (all that's predictive) he ranks 50th of 57 in Success Rate Added at 2b. It's not as bad as it sounds, because he was just -1%, but still ... he's a below average fielder at the position.
If he's not above average overall, he's useless to us. So everything boils down to whether he can come back to his offensive form of 2 and 3 years ago
The Red Sox probably have 100 times as much information to answer that question as we do ... and they have spoken. I think it's completely crazy to guess that he'll be fine when the team clearly believes he won't be.
I thought they'd non-tender him and sign him to a ml contract. This is much better.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,021
|
Post by ericmvan on Nov 16, 2023 1:56:58 GMT -5
The new expanded and revised version of The Letters of J.R.R. Tolkien arrived a few hours before the Rule 5 deadline ... which is why I didn't remember it until an hour so ago!
The other way to look at this: who are the 14 guys on the ST 40-man who don't project to be on the opening day 26, if all are healthy?
Hamilton Rafaela Valdez - no way you even need a second backup infielder
Abreu - great up-and-down guy who needs to get even better
Murphy can you see him pitching in a close playoff game? Kelly ditto Walter Robertson Gonzalez Perez Mata they'll try to sneak him through waivers or deal him to a second division team, if he doesn't look great in ST
I took 4 guys off the projected MLB roster and put them here ... and still have 3 open spots!
One I think is a no-brainer: a better up-and-down SP than Murphy and Walter, ideally a guy set to start a career as a genuine 4th starter, but who has an option left.
Another is easy to spot: a catcher who has options left. They need a legit 3rd catcher in any case, why not acquire someone who won't need a 40-man move if needed?.
There are numerous possibilities for the last spot on the 40:
A prospect obtained in a Verdugo or Dalbec trade that isn't one of the above Their own Rule 5 pick Yet another depth-chart starter Something we don't know about Weiss, Jaceses, or Mills
[my fave] Both Verdugo and Dalbec until a ST trade or injury
Given this analysis, not protecting Drohan makes good sense.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,021
|
Post by ericmvan on Nov 13, 2023 0:35:45 GMT -5
I'd think CSA would be much more relevant than MSA given that a team's catchment area or whatever you want to call it doesn't just end where the commuters end; it pretty much keeps going until it hits another team's area. E.g., Maine and Vermont are definitely Red Sox country. So actually CSA would undereshoot the relevant geographical zone. Having said that, I think the Red Sox' market definitely punches above the weight of its population.
I wonder what you'd get if you just totaled the population in each of the colored areas of this map.
I think my algorithm is good enough for ticket sales and concessions. The further you are from the park, the less likely you are to show up. And if a team is drawing more long-distance fans than average, that's a result of their popularity.
Where you might really want to use the above map is in figuring out TV revenues. But again, that's a a function of the team's popularity. The Sox revenues are terrific relative to the potential size of their fan base, and that's because they are popular enough to own their own broadcasting rather than having a deal with a local network affiliate. And that revenue pays for the tax, which gets them better players ... it's a positive feedback loop.
The way to do this right is to know the average breakdown of ticket sales of all franchises, by MSA, CSA, and Other, where the last is a formula based on the size of "other." For the TV revenue, you'd have a formula expressing the average number of viewers as a function of the three locations, and another predicting the average revenue, given the viewers.
All but one of the teams close to the Sox in my version have even bigger areas to draw from than the Sox do (I believe the color strength measures actual fan engagement). If we did the above, I think the Phillies drop down below the Sox. And that's all.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,021
|
Post by ericmvan on Nov 12, 2023 5:37:54 GMT -5
Here's a table that says a lot. The "Pop" is Population of the team's Metropolitan Statistical Area, plus 1/2 of the extra population in their Combined Statistical Area. For the Sox, the latter goes west to Worcester, south to Providence, and north into NH.
There really is a 3-way tie. (And yes, this is also the average of the two populations. Math!) The last two lines show the team's luxury tax history, beginning with the current system in 2002. 2013 numbers are Sportrac estimates. Tax paid is millions of bucks.
No team that was below the (current) top 15 most populous regions has ever gone over the tax. Rnk Team Pop Tax Paid Years
1 NYY 20.8 386.3 19
1 NYM 148.1 2
2 LAD 15.7 193.8 7
2 LAA 1.1 2
3 ChC 9.6 14.2 6
3 ChW 0.0 0
t4 Tor 8.2 4.0 1
t4 Tex 8.2 0.0 0
t4 Was 8.2 4.4 2
7 Hou 7.5 3.1 1
8 Phi 6.8 9.6 3
9 SF 6.8 8.8 3
10 Atl 6.7 4.0 1
11 Bos 6.6 52.3 12
12 Mia 6.5 0.0 0
13 Ari 5.0 0.0 0
14 Det 4.9 9.0 3
15 Sea 4.5 0.0 0
One of these things is not like the others, no?
We're the #14 team in the #11 market, and until this year we were #3 in tax spent (with a huge gap to #4), and we are still the only team to have paid the tax more often than not.
This is obviously very connected to the success tale in the earlier post, and not just in the simple $ = wins fashion. We are off the scale in money spent relative to market size, and way ahead of everyone in WS success.
Clearly, we can spend the money because the fans are so ardent that they will pay the highest ticket prices in MLB.
It seems as if the the passion of the fan base actually contributes to the success story.
And that is food for thought (e.g, a dog and some cotton candy).
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,021
|
Post by ericmvan on Nov 12, 2023 3:54:30 GMT -5
...
John Henry is the only constant here.
...
and Tom Werner and Mike Gordon and Sam Kennedy (dare I include Larry L.?) Or course! The business end has been very stable ...
But no, you may not include Larry L.!
Someone in a position of authority used the 2008 recession as an excuse to make baseball ops let go all of their consultants but one, which had to be be Tom Tippett, because he still hadn't finished the Carmince data system. This was in January, IIRC. Baseball ops was not happy.
At the time I was working on a big meta-project: a description of about 10 (more?) cool analytic ideas. My previous year's contract stated that I was to discuss any such idea with Bill James, and any that he deemed worthy would be contracted separately from my monthly pay. I spent a lot of that year mucking about with them, and was gearing up have all the descriptions done before opening day 2009. I suppose I should take a look at whatever work I did finish!
Zack Scott did go to bat for me and got me six months severance pay.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,021
|
Post by ericmvan on Nov 9, 2023 5:26:09 GMT -5
I can't figure out the pattern with the years, but I believe #2 is the Marlins (1997) and #1 is the Red Sox (2 thousand something). Can't figure out why Blue Jays (1992) and Astros (2017) don't count either. You got the 2 and 1! That's all I expected.
The Blue Jats and Astros don't count for the same reason that the Yankees' five most recent wins count as 1. I'm looking for multiple WS wins with a completely different set of players. So each entry is the year you have to go back to, to find two different WS winners in each franchise, players-wise. Another way of looking at this is that we count a dynastic pair or set of wins, like Bochy had with Giants in '10 '12, and '14, as one success-entity.
The O's have an asterisk because the only overlap between their '66 and '83 victories was Jim Palmer, but in '83 he had 0.2 WAR and pitched just the 5th and 6th innings of game 3 (and got the win!). I would count that: his absence would have no affect on the WS outcome.
The Sox' date is 2013, with an asterisk for Xander, the only player who made it to 2018. Xander replaced Brock Holt as backup SS / 3B on August 19 and had just 50 PA (nowhere near rookie max) with a .684 OPS, for 0.3 WAR. He did take over from a slumping (since September 10!) Will Middlebrooks starting with game 5 of the ALCS, and put up an .893 OPS ... so maybe you can argue that this shouldn't count at all.
In which case, of course, you just go back to 2007.
Furthermore, the 2004 and 2013 teams had only one player in common. Granted, he was a first-ballot HOF'er, but I looked for other near-misses like that one and all I could find was the '96 to '09 Yankees, but they had Rivera, Jeter, and Petttte in common, plus Posada for the last 4 of the 5.
Do I have to mention that the '04 / '07, '13, and '18 teams had different heads of baseball ops and different managers? I didn't think so.
John Henry is the only constant here.
My original title for this thread was a combo Prince and Sinead O'Connor tribute, "Nothing Compares, Nothing Compares to Us." Sometime in the next few days I'll speculate why.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,021
|
Post by ericmvan on Nov 8, 2023 13:16:52 GMT -5
A cool franchise top 15, counted down. One aspect is screamingly obvious (they are all multiple WS winners); the other, the one that gives the dates, is trickier. Identifying that second aspect is made too easy if #2 is listed, and #1 actually has two different viable answers, date-wise, one with and one without the asterisk the O's have.
15. Giants (1954)
14. Pirates (1960)
13. Orioles (1966 *)
12. Tigers (1968)
11. Mets (1969)
10. A's (1972)
9. Reds (1976)
8. Yankees (1978)
7. Phillies (1980 )
6. Cardinals (1982 )
5. Royals (1985)
4. Dodgers (1988)
3. Braves (1995) 2. ?
1. ?
You can see that this is a pretty hard thing to do, with just 3 teams doing it in the last 30 years. There are four more entries, but they go back to 1924 and older.
If no one gets this by this evening, I'll explain. I may post a clue in the interim.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,021
|
Post by ericmvan on Nov 8, 2023 1:05:47 GMT -5
I especially don't buy ericmvan's assertion that the Red Sox have suddenly figured out how to "handle" Sale in a way that will keep him healthier... that feels like a stretch.
I didn't remotely say that. What I did say was admittedly way too terse.
" For the first time in his Red Sox career, he's going to be handled in a way to maximize his availability."
That's a conscious goal that has been either ignored (under Dombroski) or that they couldn't afford to do because they lacked the depth. Breslow's not going to miss this need.
They may not come up with anything that works! They might limit him to 80 pitches a start and he might still get injured. They might use him exclusively on 5 or even 6 days rest and the same thing may happen.
The point is, if they sign a free agent ace, they will, for the first time, be in a position to settle for getting less innings per unit of healthy time from Sale than they would ordinarily like, in order to maximize the amount of time he is healthy.
The idea is to remove him from the role where he's the guy whose success is necessary to the team's, with all the pressure that goes with it, and make him the extra bonus weapon.
He's actually never been better than average once September rolls around, because of the consistent overwork. I cam see him getting as little as 140 or 150 innings ...but being available in the post-season as The Real Sale, as good as anyone in the game, to pitch game 2 of a series, and go 6 innings of shutout or 1-run ball.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,021
|
Post by ericmvan on Nov 7, 2023 17:44:48 GMT -5
I do think that it's not for nothing that their starters were 10th best in MLB by WAR and 9th best by FIP in September, when they were running out a rotation of Sale, Houck, Bello, Crawford, and Pivetta - and that despite Bello having kind of a crummy month. Which is just to say, I would like to plant my flag at the midpoint between ericmvanian panglossia and the conventional wisdom. The rotation starts out in better shape than people think, with its main limitation being depth rather than talent, and I'm more and more content with the idea of just adding a couple of judiciously chosen mid-tier starters. (Would still like Yamamoto though.) On the other hand, I think the offense is in trouble if they don't either land Ohtani or make a major upgrade through trade. My rundown was of course a ceiling assessment. If we could end up with 2 number 2's and two number 3's from the the four non-Sale guys, that would be golden. Keep reading. I agree that the rotation is in better shape than people think (and especially that the “Houck and Whitlock NEED to be in the bullpen” people are wrong) but I do think the rotation needs a clear top guy. Without a horse, you’re relying on Sale to stay healthy or someone else having a sustained breakout to anchor the rotation, and I don’t think that’s appreciably different from what they’ve had the past few years. Absolutely correct. The psychology of going into ST knowing you have an ace -- that works in everyone else's favor. If all six guys are healthy at some points in time, you improvise.
I want Yamamoto (and yes, my argument that we're the front-runner is still forthcoming) and a high-floor, perceived lower ceiling AAA guy essentially ready, to fill in as needed. He's 8th on the depth chart, with a stretched-out (in ST) Whitlock as 7th. Ninth on the chart is an mlFA that has been identified as having secret upside -- of course you sign three guys that fit that description and hope to hit on one.
They need a reliever pitch the 7th in case Schreiber continues to fade.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,021
|
Post by ericmvan on Nov 7, 2023 7:47:04 GMT -5
Lots of experts holding forth on the badness of the rotation. What do we have at present?
Chris Sale, who was literally the best SP in MLB over the 6 starts that followed his rust removal, before his further injury. That was for real, because he's Chris Sale. For the first time in his Red Sox career, he's going to be handled in a way to maximize his availability.
Tanner Houck, who was literally the best SP in MLB over his first three innings (and terrible after) when he suffered his Sale-like freak injury. That #1 ranking is a measure of his stuff. He went six innings in 3 of his last 4 starts and in those starts he had no 1 to 3 vs. 4 to 6 split at all, and had an xwOBA that matched the season averages of Nola, Cole, and Glasnow. He's devoting his off-season to building up further stamina.
Kutter Crawford, who was probably (I'm doing some seat-of-pats regression to the mean here, for others who were slightly better but pitched a good deal less) the second best SP in MLB when there wasn't a runner in scoring position -- when there was, he was really bad. I think that defect has to be psychological in the broadest sense. He's also working on adding stamina (if he's pitched more sixth innings he wouldn't rank second). He has some great pitch-movement metrics to back up the idea that he's a potential frontline guy.
Nick Pivetta. You've all seen this list--the best starters from the day be added a killer 5th pitch, in late June:
.257 Specner Strider
.258 Pablo Lopez
.265 Gerrit Cole
.267 Nick Pivetta
.269 Zack Wheeler
.271 Corbin Burns
.271 Max Scherzer
.272 Zach Eflin
.274 Tyler Glasnow
Yet everyone here is like, oh yeah, he'll be a solid #3 starter. I think that people are thinking, hot streak! We've seen him be great for stretches like this before (although not for this long).
The thing is, though, he spent an entire month with a .353 xwOBA. He was hot, cold hot, and still placed where he did.
The other things is that if a guy was a 3-pitch pitcher his whole career (before 2022) and is now a 5-pitch pitcher, I'm skeptical that any of his past performance is predictive at all. All we really know about Pivetta is that he was that good for that long, and the long was long enough to include a month-long bad stretch (where he was overworked). It is a small sample, but it's easier for me to see him as an ace than a #3. If you saw his "My Story," you know he is very serious about his craft.
Brayan Bello
18 GS, .694 OPS, 3.06 ERA. 10 GS, .951 OPS, 6.94 ERA
Those were his night / day splits. That stuff can be real, and tough to work around. Best case, he can get to bed much earlier by killing all but blue light some hours before he's been getting sleepy.
I actually believe that every one of these guys has a ceiling of an ace. Assuming they add one of the elite FA's, I think that starting pitching is their strong point. Relief pitching, 2B, and OF offense (even if they resign Duvall, which seems like a no-brainer) seem weaker to me.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,021
|
Post by ericmvan on Oct 30, 2023 8:04:43 GMT -5
Eric's two reasons we are the favorites for Yamamoto: 1) He is friends with a guy on our team who had a rough first year. 2) Last year's team arguably didn't suck quite as much as most people think. Sounds great. You forgot his reason number 3. The Red Sox are my favorite team. So why would anybody want to sign with any team other than my favorite team? Doesnt he know it's my favorite team? Because they're my favorite team, they're better than everybody else, so of course my favorite team is the favorite to sign him. Who can argue with logic like that? Kidding aside, the Sox certainly have a reasonable legit shot, but you can say that equally with about another half dozen teams. Put it like this, if it came down to Pittsburgh, KC, Oakland and the Sox then the Sox would clearly be favorites to sign him, lol. I'd get behind that statement. "Reasons to be Cheerful Part 3" was the last single by Ian Dury and the Blockheds, better known for "Sex & Drugs & Rock 'n' Roll" and "Hit Me With Your Rhythm Stick (#1 in that year's Village Voice poll). The intent was to be as optimistic as possible, as a desirable counterbalance to unwarranted pessimism.
Having said that, later today I will argue that we are the favorites to land Yamamoto.
Fun fact: in the 51 years since the advent of free agency, how many team owners have won a pair of championships where the rosters had no overlap at all?
Just one. And you know who it is.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,021
|
Post by ericmvan on Oct 30, 2023 4:59:10 GMT -5
I knew I had another tidbit to share ...
There were 172 pitchers who had 100+ PA that ended with a 4-seam FB.
Guess whose FB (all pitches) had the 3rd most movement, and the most movement among starting pitchers?
(21.3" -- 19.0" of rise relative to gravity, and 9.5" of armside run).
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,021
|
Post by ericmvan on Oct 27, 2023 14:54:18 GMT -5
So, I'm adding the virtual bulk outing on April 17th, which was actually his longest outing by IP, to his starts. That would be predictive of his performance as a starter, no?
He faced 467 hitters. Here are the top 10 starting pitchers in xwOBA who faced 400+ hitters. .269 Pablo Lopez .273 Spencer Strider .274 Zach Eflin .278 Zack Wheeler .282 Max Scherzer .283 Kutter Crawford .284 Freddy Peralta .286 Corbin Burns .288 Bobby Miller .289 Gerrit Cole
If we take all 150 starters who faced 290 or more hitters, he still ranks 9th. Toss out his bulk outing and he still ranks 14th. I have always defined "ace" as one of the top 15 starters in MLB. So, how the heck did he put up a 4.26 ERA? This excludes the bulk outing.
Pitch PA PPA xwOBA wOBA
All 1782 446 4.00 .290 .306
Empty 1053 266 3.96 .295 .309
1B 375 85 4.41 .190 .202
RISP 354 95 3.73 .368 .388
Of the 150 SP who faced the most guys with just a runner on 1B, Crawford ranked 2nd in xwOBA and 3rd in wOBA.
With RISP? He ranked 134th and 135th. It's not pitch usage: Pitch Empty 1B RISP
4-Seam 41% 35% 37%
Cutter 26% 32% 30%
Curve 13% 10% 10%
Sweeper 8% 9% 6%
Split 8% 7% 6%
Slider 5% 7% 10%
The slider was his only effective pitch with RISP, hence the boost.
There are basically two possible explanations for this: pitch selection (including location) and pitch execution.
Sox SP ranked 7th in MLB with bases empty, 8th with a runner on 1B only, and 20th with RISP.
Relievers ranked 14th, 14th and 27th.
There were 17 teams that were better overall with the bases empty, and only four of them were below average with RISP, with the Rangers and Phillies (!) having the almost the same differential as the Sox (.018 and .017 versus .019; the Tigers were .013).
Next question: how did individual Sox pitchers fare? Are the splits driven by a few extreme cases like Crawford, or it is more systemic?
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,021
|
Post by ericmvan on Oct 26, 2023 14:46:07 GMT -5
An insanely detailed game log. xwOBA for each outing is adjusted for the opponents offensive xwOBA vs. RHP in this time frame. The first outing is when he introduces the sweeper, and the second is when he reintroduces his cutter. He had spent the off-season switching from a knuckle- to regular curve, with the eventual result being extra velo (76.9 to 82.0) and less movement (20.1" to 18.8:), which is a positive trade-off, and maybe he shelved the cutter while he was working on that. The right two columns sum the stretches of different results, at two levels of detail. The mediocre and then bad stretch very much look like the product of overwork. Date DR Opp Role PA j-xwOBA
6/28/2023 4 Mia Blk 13 .164
7/2/2023 3 Tor Rel 16 .325 .253
7/7/2023 4 Oak Blk 20 .194
7/17/2023 9 Oak Blk 20 .099
7/22/2023 4 NYM Rel 3 .250
7/25/2023 2 Atl Blk 18 .174
7/31/2023 5 Sea SP 26 .171 .163 .186
8/5/2023 4 Tor Blk 19 .349
8/9/2023 3 KC SP 21 .351
8/15/2023 5 Wsn SP 21 .264
8/20/2023 4 NYY Blk 19 .364
8/23/2023 2 Hou Rel 3 .208 .326
8/25/2023 1 LAD Rel 12 .451
9/2/2023 7 KC Rel 11 .354
9/6/2023 3 TB SP 22 .401 .403 .353
9/12/2023 5 NYY SP 22 .214
9/17/2023 4 Tor SP 24 .237
9/23/2023 5 CWS SP 24 .307
9/29/2023 5 Bal SP 23 .253 .254
The bulk thing was because he had struggled his whole Sox career in the first. But he had a .152 xwOBA (unadjusted) in the first inning across this whole report, so he no longer needs to coupled with an opener.
The overall adjusted xwOBA allowed is .268.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,021
|
Post by ericmvan on Oct 26, 2023 3:41:38 GMT -5
Man, Ian Browne is usually solid at MLB.com, but his birthday appreciation for Pedro was pathetic. Let me translate:
Pedro Martinez, arguably the best pitcher to ever wear a Red Sox uniform, = very likely the best pitcher in MLB history
He won the American League’s Cy Young Award in '98 and '99 with two of the best seasons in franchise history = with the two most dominating seasons in MLB history, and perhaps in any American major team sport
Yes, and Bill Russell was one of the most consistent winners in Celtics history, Tom Brady was one the best Patriots QB's ... you can do Williams and Orr yourself!
Just an embarrassment.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,021
|
Post by ericmvan on Oct 26, 2023 0:50:24 GMT -5
Reasons to be Cheerful, Parts 1 to 7
1) After he got the rust off, Chris Sale was The Best Pitcher in Baseball (please insert periods after capitalized words) for six starts before getting hurt. Dombrowski (and his analysts) never noticed the "This Sale Valid for a Limited Time Only?" effect where he regressed to an average pitcher by September every bleeping year, an obvious red flag for an eventual injury. Assuming there is no lawnmower, sky-diving or other mishap this winter, the new regime will have a chance to use all of the biometric and health knowledge at hand to devise the optimal plan to keep him as healthy as possible, something Bloom never really had a chance at. It may be as simple as an 80-pitch limit.
2) We have to be the favorite for Yoshinbu Yamamoto, right? (And now you know his first name, too!) Moving to a country where you don't or barely speak the language is tough. How many people doing that have the opportunity to rejoin a teammates and friend? And the team was on a 90-win pace (neutral division) despite insane injuries as late as late August.
3) There were 17 guys who threw both a slider and sweeper this year. But only 6 of them threw them both as plus pitches .
There were just four guys who threw all three of the harder glove-side pitches, by adding a cutter to the two distinct types of slider. (And yes, one of them was Yu Darvish.) If you command all three pitches, that has to be ultra-tough on hitters, as they are close enough to confuse with one another.h
Only two guys are on both lists, and both had a plus cutter as well.
One of them is Nick Pivetta.
4) And the other is Kutter Crawford. Seriously. He also has some elite movement stats, so it looks like I'm doing him when I finish Pivetta.
5) Tanner Houck! As I have mentioned too often, he was the best SP in MLB through inning 3 when he got hurt the hard way. Like Crawford, he is devoting his off-season to adding stamina in order to go deeper, in his case with clear ace-quality stuff.
6) You know things are looking up when the pitcher who least excites "you" (in this case, me) in terms of taking a major step forward from 2023 value is Bryan Bello.
7) There's no room in this post for Garrett Whitlock! You know they'll stretch him out in ST to cover injuries.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,021
|
Post by ericmvan on Oct 25, 2023 22:52:55 GMT -5
Teaser trailers ... In Pivetta's Have-Sweeper era (hereafter Neo-Pivetta, with Matrix reference not originally intended but certainly welcome) ...
He threw the sweeper just 9.0% of the time, but it ended a PA 13.1%, which is 46% more. Clearly he was saving it as an out pitch. And he allowed a .158 xwOBA and .141 wOBA. He can likely throw it more often and end up coming out ahead. The effectiveness will drop as he shows it more, but it will be more than offset by using it more.
-----------
My project to get an objective measure of fastball stuff (velo plus movement) needs to be rebooted, but I did discover that a) xwOBA correlates much more strongly with stuff than wOBA does, and b) Raw Velo correlates better than Perceived Velo ... if that is true for other pitches, there's something wrong with that stat.
------
The MLB ave for xWOBA is .319. Neo-Pivetta:
51% .292 FB 21% .295 Curve 14% .278 Cutter 09% .158 Sweeper
05% .177 Slider
I may be forced to see how many guys can match that.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,021
|
Post by ericmvan on Oct 25, 2023 1:41:04 GMT -5
Teaser trailer for a long post in progress ...
June 28 was when Pivetta started throwing his sweeper, and in his next appearance he re-added his cutter that had been his new pitch from the year before.
There were 64 pitchers who faced 330+ hitters from then (6/28) until season's end. The xwOBA leader board has nine guys and then a gap before number 10.
The nine elite performances:
.257 Specner Strider .258 Pablo Lopez .265 Gerrit Cole .267 Nick Pivetta
.269 Zack Wheeler .271 Corbin Burns .271 Max Scherzer .272 Zach Eflin .274 Tyler Glasnow
Decent set of comps, eh?
|
|
|
