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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 16, 2019 16:05:48 GMT -5
Owings was released from the Royals who are probably one of 5 worst teams in MLB. Hernandez and Lin are much more talented and versitile than Owings. JD Martinez was released by an Astros team that won 70 games. Again, I'm not saying Owings is great by any means, but this is not good logic. JD Martinez aside, "if you got released by the Royals, you probably shouldn't be in the majors" does not strike me as a wildly illogical statement.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 16, 2019 15:15:19 GMT -5
1) People want to keep Betts for his whole career, and trading him away obviously reduces (probably eliminates) the odds of that happening. 2) I still don't think it's a "safe bet" that you can get a sufficient return in a trade. Yes, the Goldschmidt trade happened, there's a few other recent examples, I'm not saying it's impossible. That doesn't mean it's likely. Again, this is not even close to how Atlanta has been operating. They're going to offer those guys below-market extensions, not trade them for players who they'll actually have to pay. 1). You miss the whole point, it's if we offer him our best offer and he rejects it like reports say we plan on doing this off season. He wants an contract our owner isn't willing to give. Your response to that was it was still better to keep him for one year even if you lose him for nothing. My point is losing a guy like Betts for nothing is crazy and not worth one slightly better chance at another title. If you can sign him or are willing to, then sign him. 2). Do you have any examples where they couldn't get good returns for a guy like Betts? You have this belief in your head that Baseball has changed. Teams are crazy smart now and won't make risky trades, but we have a ton of them made in the last year. Nevermind Betts is a different caliber then all of them. Like Goldschmidt was five years older and still had basically the same bwar Betts has now. Betts is the type of player teams do stupid stuff for. It only takes one team. 1. Even if he doesn't take the Red Sox best offer this offseason, that doesn't mean the Red Sox are definitely going to be outbid in free agency. I would go as far as to say that the Red Sox re-signing Betts in free agency may be the most likely of all the possible scenarios. He's worth the most to them and the market may well reflect that. 2. "You have this belief in your head that Baseball has changed." I mean... isn't that all we've been talking about for the last two off-seasons? I'm hardly the only one who's picked up on this. Baseball has changed to the extent that most people think we're headed for another strike. This is not some pet theory of my own creation. 3. Do I have examples of trades that didn't get made? I mean... yeah, every good player who made it to free agency without getting traded. Of which there are several, I believe. 4. I'm sure it will fall on deaf ears, but let me again, again, AGAIN state that my contention isn't that a Betts trade is impossible, it is that it is not easy.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 15, 2019 16:10:44 GMT -5
Except he’ll never crack the starting lineup on our team unless he switches positions It's really important to have players like that either on the bench or in AAA that can cover for injuries. He doesn't have to be good, he just has to be better than Eduardo Nunez.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 15, 2019 15:47:56 GMT -5
I'm so confused by so many supporting the go for it next year basically even if it means losing Betts for basically nothing. When so many people don't want to make trades that risk our future to go for it by trading our prospects. Given the recent trades it seems like a fairly safe bet that what you could likely trade Betts for would increase your Champonship odds over the next 5-7 years more than Betts for only one year. Baseball is just unpredictable like that and no matter how good Betts is, it's on the rest of the team. 1) People want to keep Betts for his whole career, and trading him away obviously reduces (probably eliminates) the odds of that happening. 2) I still don't think it's a "safe bet" that you can get a sufficient return in a trade. Yes, the Goldschmidt trade happened, there's a few other recent examples, I'm not saying it's impossible. That doesn't mean it's likely. Unless they’re desperate for a title and have a loaded farm, like Atl. Then you ask for Pasche and Anderson and see if they jump. Again, this is not even close to how Atlanta has been operating. They're going to offer those guys below-market extensions, not trade them for players who they'll actually have to pay.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 14, 2019 16:02:03 GMT -5
Is there a team that actually fits this description, by the way? I know it's not the trade proposal sub-forum, but I think it's worth talking about how few organizations are even remotely in a position to do this. I've heard the Braves floated out there. The Braves are cheap as hell. They're not about to sign a contract in the Harper-Machado vicinity, much less trade away controllable assets for the privilege of doing so.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 14, 2019 14:31:50 GMT -5
One more thing on Betts. If he is traded, the team trading for him knows for almost absolute fact that he's not re-signing just because he's there. That probably makes the return less than it might have been. The team acquiring him could be willing to outbid every other team and could A. Feel like they're close next year to being a WS contender and B. Want to make sure he's a fit in their organization before giving the guy 350-400 million. Is there a team that actually fits this description, by the way? I know it's not the trade proposal sub-forum, but I think it's worth talking about how few organizations are even remotely in a position to do this.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 13, 2019 16:43:31 GMT -5
Just read the Sox starters ERA is 29th in MLB and their WHIP is 30th. You know, maybe there's a reason starters pitch so much in spring training.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 12, 2019 15:38:01 GMT -5
Can you imagine how much heat Dombrowski would be taking right now if he dealt Vazquez and kept Swihart before the season started? Dombrowski clearly made the right call. As a Swihart supporter I had it wrong. I still think if Swihart got a team to commit to him as catcher and let him play the bulk of the time there's a chance he can still develop into a useful player, but if he plays sporadically as he has, his career will never go anywhere. Arizona was using him the same way Boston was. Meanwhile Vazquez has become what the Sox had hoped he would. That was a talent judgment call and both Dombrowski and Cora ultimately made the right call. On the other hand, Swihart's season has been terrible, and yet I'd still seriously consider swapping him in for Leon at this point.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 12, 2019 14:42:40 GMT -5
Imagine your favorite song. Ok, now imagine someone playing it 50 times, and slowing increasing the volume each time to the point of hearing damage. Does that sound good? No? Huh, everyone likes songs until they don't I guess. Imagine a terrible reference. This had everything to do with Mookie Betts and the relevance of signing him, up until someone came in and decided that he didn't like what I had to say. Let it go.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 12, 2019 11:46:01 GMT -5
JBJ is a tough call. He likely won't be worth what he'll be paid next year, yet I don't see a team giving us anything for him in the off-season. Might be best to bring him back and see if someone needs him at next years deadline. After 5 years, though, it is painful watching his at bats A platoon partner would help the overall CF production a lot, AND give the Red Sox an actual outfielder as their 4th outfielder. Castillo is the 4th outfielder the Red Sox have been missing. Playing JDM in RF in Fenway makes me cringe. It was always pretty sketchy but with age and injury creeping in, it's really getting to be indefensible.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 12, 2019 8:04:22 GMT -5
Since June 1, Erasmo Ramirez has throw 70 innings with a 3.34 ERA, is .226/.287/.387, 51K, only 20 BB. A little bit of BABIP luck (.250), but he's been pretty decent and he can eat innings. He's not **the answer** but at this point I think I see whether they can get lucky on a guy who might be better than Cashner/Johnson/Velazquez anyway. Anyway, now that I've posted that Toledo will light him up for nine runs in 2 1/3. I think he’s an absolute tater machine at the major league level. He frightens me with MLB caliber hitters now playing with juiced balls For what it's worth, they're using the MLB ball at AAA too. (If anyone was wondering how the lively ball plays in the already hitter friendly PCL, old friend Mauricio Dubon has a .291/.332/.466 line in that league, and that works out to roughly ten percent worse than league average.)
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 12, 2019 7:04:25 GMT -5
Honestly, I like posts I strongly disagree with. Keeps the board fresh and something to talk about while the team plays itself into obscurity. Yes. People like different opinions on here, until they don't. Completely wild, they even want you off the message board. Imagine your favorite song. Ok, now imagine someone playing it 50 times, and slowing increasing the volume each time to the point of hearing damage. Does that sound good? No? Huh, everyone likes songs until they don't I guess.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 11, 2019 18:17:56 GMT -5
Edwin Diaz' two runs allowed today would have saved us They are the ONLY two runs that would have saved us, in fact.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 11, 2019 12:29:18 GMT -5
Not if you're trying to win a World Series, which should 100% be the goal in 2020. I guess we're all bored with that and we just want to root for payroll efficiency now. Many of you are missing the boat. THE GOAL THIS WINTER IS find out what Mookie is looking at. Mookie wants to take a look at the market. I think that is a great idea. The key is: if Dave is looking at 250 and Mookie is looking at 350. Then the sox have a problem. Now you run a high risk that you get a 4th round pick in the 2021 draft and lose Mookie. The 100% goal every year should be to make the playoffs and give yourself a chance to win it all. Winning the series still includes a lot of luck. Thus the word chance. Any return the sox get IF they trade Mookie is better than a 4th round pick the following spring. Umass and pedro used examples of things they would like to get back. We here on the site have NO IDEA what we could expect back for one year of Mookie. And would they replace Mookie NO WAY. The best would be a torres and chapman type trade. Is that likely to happen probably not. But, say the dodgers lose the WS again. Maybe they are desperate and the sox get their outfield prospect and a couple of their pitching prospects. If Dave and Mookie are both looking at 300 than it is a good risk to let Mookie play out 2020 and take their chances at signing him. Payroll efficiency, WOW, not a term I would remotely even put to this conversation. Dave is not going to pay Mookie what Mookie thinks he is worth. He is going to pay what the sox can afford and what the market price is. "Desperate" is not an adjective I would use to describe the Dodgers now or at any point in the foreseeable future.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 11, 2019 12:07:26 GMT -5
You're very likely to have one regardless of what happens with Mookie. I also think that people are vastly overrating the prospect return Mookie would demand at this point. Everyone understands the value of top prospects and team control just as well as the Red Sox do -- arguably they understand it a lot better than a team run by Dave Dombrowski. It's the bad trade proposal syndrome at work, treating the other 29 teams are supporting characters in a story that's primarily about the Red Sox. In other words, if you're talking about a prospect return that's for sure going to make the Red Sox a significantly better team in 2020... why would a team that wants to be good past 2020 then make that trade for one year of Mookie? Combining a few posts here, teams do stupid things which is why I think Betts fetches a haul. A team like the Braves could easily throw a massive package at us and not even gut that system. Hoping one year playing in Atlanta gives them the upper hand. A lot of teams that really really want to win do stupid things. I think your read on MLB front offices is a few years out of date.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 11, 2019 12:03:05 GMT -5
My only real point, if there is one, is that Mookie is too valuable of a player to wait out this decision. Sox need to take bold action this winter (best/overwhelming offer to avoid FA or trade) to give them the best chance to win in 2020 and for the years following. EDIT: Should add that this is in the context of my primary concern that we have a major pitching depth issue which, if not creatively solved, doesn't really make us any more likely to contend in 2020 than we can right now. Your top 3 (Sale, Price, Eovaldi) require better #6/7 options because all are higher than average injury risks, you need to replace Porcello's innings (the 2018 ones if you expect to win), and the bullpen needs help. Not a whole lot of realistic promise coming up from the system for any of those roles, hard to make a trade with few premium prospects, and I'm not sure FA signings alone can fill all those holes. I don't know why "bold" action is more likely to lead to a good outcome for the team. For the amount of money it would take to change his mind on free agency, you could probably just win the bidding war for less. And as far as trading him goes, I understand it in theory, but you also can't just assume that a satisfactory Betts trade even exists. Again, everyone wants all this immediate help for the pitching staff, and what team that's trying to win in 2020 is going to give up MLB ready pitchers?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 11, 2019 9:40:40 GMT -5
Not if you're trying to win a World Series, which should 100% be the goal in 2020. I guess we're all bored with that and we just want to root for payroll efficiency now. Not bored. I just want the team to be good past 2020. You're very likely to have one regardless of what happens with Mookie. I also think that people are vastly overrating the prospect return Mookie would demand at this point. Everyone understands the value of top prospects and team control just as well as the Red Sox do -- arguably they understand it a lot better than a team run by Dave Dombrowski. It's the bad trade proposal syndrome at work, treating the other 29 teams are supporting characters in a story that's primarily about the Red Sox. In other words, if you're talking about a prospect return that's for sure going to make the Red Sox a significantly better team in 2020... why would a team that wants to be good past 2020 then make that trade for one year of Mookie?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 11, 2019 9:24:31 GMT -5
Agree with UMass, if 10/350 doesn't get him to bite (assuming we'd even offer that) then you have to consider bringing back talent to replace Mookie. If he is 100% determined to hit free agency, there's nothing that says you can't trade him this winter and then still make that same mega-offer the following year. Yeah you risk him signing an extension with the new team but if he does that when he wouldn't with us then we were losing him anyways. Bottom line, make your best offer this winter. My preference is to see Mookie stay but it's inept management to let a scenario play out where he walks and all you get is draft pick compensation.Not if you're trying to win a World Series, which should 100% be the goal in 2020. I guess we're all bored with that and we just want to root for payroll efficiency now.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 11, 2019 8:27:39 GMT -5
Yes he is. He's also been on the record as saying that does not mean he won't re-sign with Boston even when he does test free agency. I think he's been pretty transparent about his thought process. The Red Sox have to ask themselves. Do they want to make that $350ish million dollar commitment? If the answer is a clear no then they should seriously think about trading him. If they figure that's the price of doing business and they accept it, they should do everything they can do to hang onto him. Say you offer him 10 years 350 million this off-season and he turns it down. What do you do? Given Trout's contract that is a mega offer. Less years but makes him the second highest player in the game just off of Trout. If he turns it down I have to look at trading him. At that point him testing the market isn't just about the largest contract, but having the option of other teams. Now that is his right, but I'm not risking some team doing something stupid. Years are my biggest worry frankly, because so much of Betts value is D. If he really wants to be in Boston there is zero reason he needs to become a free agent if they make him a mega offer. I don't think that's actually much of a risk given today's free agent market. Teams are going to do what teams do now, pay for the projections. That's what the Red Sox will have to do to keep him, one way or another.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 11, 2019 6:53:30 GMT -5
Yes but the batting practice baseballs might need a little more juice. Ted's famous HR would probably be 50 feet further with today's ball. So it would have actually reached the red seat this time?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 10, 2019 8:41:23 GMT -5
And pass up on elite talents like Rafael Devers for 1.5 Million? I don't agree with you You don't have to agree with me. I know I am right. Look at what they brought Xander in for. How about Darwinzon, and Mata. Come on. Look at all of the money wasted in the international market. Rusney and friends say hello.What friends? Who else have the Red Sox signed internationally who remotely compares to Rusney?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 7, 2019 10:27:08 GMT -5
There's quite a gap between discussing the difference between fWAR and bWAR or bringing it to an Eric Van level of discussion and understanding that OBP is far more important than BA or that wRC+ or even OPS is more important than the number of home runs. I bet none of them understand that Puig is a below average MLB hitter even with 22 HR this season. I doubt they know that Roughned Odor is barely replacement level with 20 HR. They were gushing about Soler last night because of his 31 home runs(far more than anyone on the Red Sox), but he'd be the 5th best hitter and 8th best player in the Red Sox lineup. Bet they don't understand that either. That's the thing, I'm all for broadcasts being about story, narrative, anecdote, etc... but if you can't get basic things right, like which players are actually good right now, your stories are going to be just flat wrong in a way that's obvious to a large percentage of the audience.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 7, 2019 9:55:57 GMT -5
Ok, this isn’t meant to start the wars again, but.... What % of baseball fans/viewers still adhere to the traditional stats? Still take great interest in them? I mean, personally, I get the new stuff, and they have their place, but I’d glaze over listening to announcers talking WAR or FIP or whatever. I also hate exit velocity and lift angle. Don’t care. 88 mph home run counts, too. And if the point is that he didn’t get great wood, I have eyes. The way I look at sabermetrics isn't gospel of performance. What I mean by that is, an 88 mph HR is still a HR. Where sabermetrics come into play is the likelihood of that happening again. If you give up 4 runs on bloop hits you still had a bad night. You gave up 4 runs. It's just encouraging in predicting future success that 4 runs on bloop hits isn't likely. Some people only look at RBI and BA while others will say a guy had a good night despite giving up 3 HR because the exit velocity wasn't there and they were the only 3 hits allowed. Literally no one ever suggested it wasn't. Also, "sabermetrics" predates statcast numbers by like forty years....
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 7, 2019 8:57:56 GMT -5
I like when an announcer has some knowledge about the newer stats, but as far as the color analysts go, I'd rather hear Eck and Remy stories from their day or tell me what strategy is going to be employed next, etc. than listen to a dissertation of modern baseball stats. A little bit fine. I don't want things dumbed down so it's all about batting average, RBIs, saves, wins, etc, but at the same time I don't want to get overly inundated with the new sabermetrics. I like sabermetrics as much as the next guy, but I too would glaze over if it becomes a discussion of fWAR versus WAR or whatever the hell it is. It would probably make me reach for the remote honestly. I love baseball but not all baseball fans are statheads. I enjoy the history and the personal stories more than the numbers quite frankly. I appreciate the numbers because they are the bones of history, so to speak, what's left over after a player has finished his career, but there's more to the game, as far as enjoyment/entertainment goes, than being an analytical accountant with each pitch. This is a false dichotomy. Modern stats simple represent a larger, more capable toolbox for telling these stories. Just one example that comes to mind, Sam Miller has been doing a monthly series on all the Hall of Famers that Mike Trout is passing as he climbs the all time WAR leaderboards, and it's so, so, so, so good: www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/27018291/mike-trout-tracker-june-edition-now-better-tony-gwynn-seven-more-hall-famersThat's amazing. You can tell the story of baseball better with WAR than without it, simple as that. No dissertations required.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 6, 2019 16:28:57 GMT -5
Hopefully Casas has one more hot streak in him this year. Been a bit quiet recently High school draftee with essentially zero pro ball before this year, I'd kind of expect him to be gassed at this point.
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