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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 19, 2019 9:00:27 GMT -5
By lampooning the panic and overreaction that often prevails in this town when something goes wrong. And no, I don't think it's a "true thing that everyone knows" that this very built-to-win-now team, which just gave out two big extensions to members of its core, is going to suddenly start tearing things down if we're out of it in July...
JD Martinez is likely to opt out to get more money. He's 31 years old. I don't know why trading him is so incomprehensible. In fact, I would love to see what they could get back. It would also free up funds to sign Mookie, but a small guy who wants 12 years is a scary proposition. Is it, though? A small infielder, maybe.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 19, 2019 7:41:15 GMT -5
Don’t try to understand Price he just says things other people wouldn’t. This would just be really defeatist stuff to hear coming out of the team's highest-paid player, and a guy who was riding a duckboat 5 months ago after becoming a World Series hero, after 19 games. I read a theory that he was trolling/mocking the media, which makes as much sense as anything else, so I'll go with that.
Trolling the media... by saying true things that everyone knows? Actually, that kind of tracks...
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 18, 2019 20:40:43 GMT -5
It makes me sad to see this once in a generation talent completely wasted on a team with zero interest and zero playoff aspirations. They literally have the two most interesting baseball players in the world on their roster! Also, I know they’ve been ravaged by injuries the last few years, but I would hardly assume they’re never going to be competitive while they have Trout. The farm system has improved under Eppler, they’ve got money to spend, and oh yeah... they have Mike Trout.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 18, 2019 17:19:01 GMT -5
I love Betts, but given the current market and if Betts makes this a bidding war, we could be looking at 12-13 year deal at $400 to $450 million. All indications are he wants to be a free agent and get the biggest deal he can. Like what does Trout get if he was actually a free agent? You have to see what your options are because that is a very risky deal. That could hurt you for a long-time. I don't mind big money, yet contracts that long scare the crap out of me no matter how good the player is. Betts isn’t Trout yet wants to get paid similar to him. Betts being that small should scare the crap out of you as he ages. The contract he wants isn’t a “well he will always give you value because of his D” contract. It’s a “you better be a star and hit 30 and carry an offense” contract. Has Trout ever had a prolonged slump at the plate? If Mookie is going to want 10+ at 400+ and he and the team won’t get their heads out of their asses you might as well at least see what teams would give up for him. If you could get 2 blue chip prospects plus 2 more really good ones you need to look into it... Might be a reaction to how annoying this team is - talk about flipping the script this team went from ridiculously good to lousy Fortunately, Trout took a contract that's massively lower than his actual value.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 18, 2019 15:48:45 GMT -5
It just needs to happen, Chavis needs to be called up sooner than later. You can't bash his D when they keep running out Nunez. Can he really be any worse? Didn't they have Chavis playing in the OF at times also? He's basically had crash courses at almost every position and while he likely won't be very good at any position, his bat could really change the lineup. Cora go with a bigger bench, not an extra bullpen arm! That's fine but if Chavis is replacing Nunez, he's not replacing JBJ.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 18, 2019 15:40:32 GMT -5
I think (hope?) the trading Betts stuff is totally backwards. You trade old but performing players in Martinez and Price, and that clears the way to a Betts extension. You can probably get something for Martinez from the right team, but Khechul can't even get a 3 year deal in this market and holding out hope to trade 4 years of Price? Keuchel got $0, Corbin got $140m, and so based on that I am going to conclude that Price's value on the market is somewhere between zero and a hundred and forty million dollars. I doubt you could get anyone to take the whole contract, but if he's pitching well, I think there's a chance someone would pick up a decent chunk of it. Depends on the price Betts is asking for and what you could get back. I think Martinez has a better chance of getting traded, but wouldn't doubt both. Betts is the kind of guy that can turn a farm from last to top 10. I understand the reasoning here, but in this case I extremely do not care about $ per WAR efficiency. I want them to resign Betts, period.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 18, 2019 13:41:53 GMT -5
I think (hope?) the trading Betts stuff is totally backwards. You trade old but performing players in Martinez and Price, and that clears the way to a Betts extension.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 18, 2019 12:25:59 GMT -5
Who do you want to make your new 3rd outfielder? For this year, at this point, JBJ should be starting (I'd let JD play more OF, but then they have no one to DH). I've been wanting to bench JBJ for awhile now. One potential option is if they call up Chavis they can have some sort of rotation where Devers plays more DH, Chavis alternates between 2B, 3B and DH and Martinez gets more time in the OF. Replacing Bradley with Martinez in the outfield costs you easily two wins on defense. And your proposed DH replacement has a .255/.315/.437 MLB batting line, and is significantly underperforming that so far this year.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 18, 2019 11:12:03 GMT -5
Who do you want to make your new 3rd outfielder?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 18, 2019 7:49:41 GMT -5
This is the hardest thing to understand. It doesn't make a lot of sense. Perhaps there was more luck to last year than the 8-10 game regression expected for this year. Also, an argument could be made that this team did not get better in some key spots (catcher, second base, possibly third base), which, in pro sports often constitutes further regression. Finally, the slow ramp-up of the starting staff, and perhaps the whole team, in spring training appears to have been poorly executed or ill-advised. I actually don't think it's that crazy at all. 1. The 2018 team was a historically great team, but it wasn't a team with a historically high level of talent. Don't get me wrong, it was a fantastic roster, but as people have mentioned, their catchers couldn't hit at all, the second base situation was bad, third base wasn't a ton better. The top end talent was ridiculous, but the back end of the roster was mediocre if not actually bad. It wasn't a team you'd actually expect another 108 win season out of, and they didn't improve any of its weaknesses in the offseason. 2. Ok, so if we're assuming a baseline of like a 95 win team and not a 105 win team, going .500ish for a three week stretch is a normal thing in baseball. If the Red Sox were just 9-10 instead of 6-13, there'd be some grumbling for sure, but it wouldn't be the full scale disaster/freakout we're currently experiencing. 3. Here's where we get into real trouble: no one pitched in spring training. The Red Sox have mostly been in kind of a normal slump for a good team, but it's been exacerbated by a starting pitching staff that was crazy-insane bad to start the year. And maybe that doesn't have anything to do with Cora's decision to bring his pitchers along super slowly, but boy, it sure seems like everyone's finding their level after the extra two weeks they didn't get in spring training. So there you have it. A roster that wasn't as good as its win total last year, with obvious weaknesses which weren't addressed, plus a really bad decision on the starting pitching, plus just a normal slump. None of these things alone would have doomed this team, and they're not out of it yet, but the confluence of bad luck, bad roster management, and bad player management has left with with very little room for error the rest of the way.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 17, 2019 21:25:14 GMT -5
Sure DFA Swihart - he was better at his position, and a couple others than Nuñez is at any, and a better hitter and ballplayer. I’m not 100% sure Swihart isn’t a better second baseman than Nuñez.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 17, 2019 11:46:07 GMT -5
Do we really think the teams core is overall in decline? Or is this more we didn't get all five starters ready, have a patch meal bullpen and some players are just starting slow? Cora is to blame for a guy like Vaz starting at 2B not DD. No Lin is on Cora not DD. Like anyone really think DD wouldn't move on from Nunez if Cora was like I want Lin? Cora seems to favor Vets over the young guys. It's almost like him and DD are battling over that, with Swihart being a perfect example. I'm pretty sure it's Dombrowski's job to make those decisions, full stop. This is the President Of Baseball Operations after all. And honestly, I'm kind of a Lin guy, but if the org sees him as more of a AAAA guy, I get it. But if that's the case (and it sure seems like it is), that's all the more reason to provide your manager with a backup 2B that he does trust.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 17, 2019 11:38:25 GMT -5
Dude that's not even a question, how many franchises had this run of excellency lately? How many franchises even won the World Series in the past 20 years? As Boston fans, we're incredibly spoiled and it makes the frustrations like the sorry 2019 even harder to take. But it does not erase the joys it gave us. Sustained success is nice and all, but winning the title is even nicer. Right, I have no problem for a team perusing a short-term strategy when it has the core that 2016-18 team had. I guess the problem is keeping that when sentimentality keeps that core together past its peak, a la that Phillies team that stayed together and was bad after their wonderful 2008-11 run. I think about the Sale trade, and what Moncada is doing now and... I don't know there's a level that Moncada could reach where I'd be mad about the trade. Like, Moncada could end up a Hall of Famer, and I'd defend the deal knowing how good Sale was and how Moncada wasn't ready to help those 2017 and 2018 teams. But the past offseason was based on the assumption that core is going to continue to be good, and they really didn't tweak their roster to face the realities. And... they still aren't: like FTHW said, a team with Pedroia at second needs a capable backup. But instead of Lin, they're carrying Nunez and Thornburg and playing Christian Vazquez (?!) at second base. I think that's mostly a fair assumption, though. The worst decisions have all been around the supporting cast. Keeping Nunez around. Not resolving the catcher situation. Making a substantial investment in Eovaldi, who, new cutter aside, had been good for about five minutes. NOT making any substantial investment in the bullpen. There were obvious routs to improving this roster, and by and large they were ignored.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 17, 2019 10:53:27 GMT -5
Is it really that crazy to think they picked Swihart over Leon mostly because they were comfortable that they wouldn't lose Leon, but decided "we'll give Swihart one more look, but if/whenever we feel Leon would be the better guy to have on the team, we'll move on from Swihart" and that that moment arrived already? Just because it's only been 18 games doesn't make it impossible for that to have been the thought process. If this was purely a panic move, then sure, it's really dumb - but just because fans are panicking doesn't automatically mean the team has become completely irrational in its decision making. My answer is "Yes." it hasn't even been 18 hands for Swihart - he's had 29 plate appearances and 54 innings behind the plate (during which, btw, his basic defensive numbers were comparable to Vazquez's). I fail to see how 54 innings was a significant enough sample here. I would love to hear them explain what they saw in 54 innings that they didn't see in the last, what, eight years?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 17, 2019 10:48:16 GMT -5
So I was right about this, and yet completely baffled by the sequence of events here. I honestly thought they'd made their choice for a number of reasons but I was wrong... again. Much less flexibility now. Inscrutable for me also. I shouldn't even say I was "right", the team did the thing I suggested they do in the first place, but that could still be the wrong decision (I'm still not the biggest Swihart guy, but I'll admit I've been persuaded that he does have slightly more upside than Sandy Leon). It's just that they did the thing that I thought they should do, and yet did it in such a weird backwards way that I now doubt my own judgement on the matter more.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 17, 2019 10:39:25 GMT -5
A lot of what's going on with the Red Sox does kinda fall into the category of baseball being weird and random, but I do find it astounding that after the Pedroia/Nunez/Kinsler experience last year, they decided to head into 2019 with the exact same group of players. I think the thought was that Holt would spell Pedroia and that Nunez would not even really be needed for 2b too much, or at least not beyond the early going. As it is, nobody would have planned on little Griffin accidentally scratching Holt's eye putting him on the IL. And the Red Sox are into Pedroia for 14 million/year so they were basically crossing their fingers that he isn't a shell of himself. I get that they had a tough situation with Pedroia in that you can't count on him, but you can't really just get rid of him either. But keeping Nunez around even though he can't actually cover you at 2B and is otherwise fairly redundant to Holt (who's not necessarily the guy you want playing middle infield every day at this point either) was a huge mistake. It's the World Series tax, he dove into the stands and limped around for 18 innings, can't get rid of that guy! But he's a terrible fit for their roster. I think the Red Sox were also under the assumption that Vazquez was finally going to become the Yadier Molina Jr that they hoped he would be. I don't think that happens, but I think that's why they keep him around. They think he's going to be that guy, and then when he's not, they panicked and went with Leon over Swihart, and cut loose a guy who could have had a future as opposed to a guy whose hitting skills have vanished altogether because they're desperate for his gamecalling skills. I actually don't think it's particularly more likely that Swihart finally figures everything out than that Vazquez becomes the "mini-Yadi". I also think any time you A) can't make the decision to have Leon on your roster or not and B) can't stick to that decision for more than a couple weeks once you have made it, is just not a sign of great organizational function. In a way I'm kind of glad that Swihart is gone, even though I think it was a bad decision, just because the organization has just not been able to get on the same page about him for like four years now. I don't know what the right decision on Swihart is or would have been, but ANY decision they had made would have been better than dragging out a catcher controversy for multiple seasons. Honestly none of these guys are likely to be that great, just pick two and let everyone move on with their lives.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 17, 2019 8:55:15 GMT -5
What does Pedroia provide if he is unable to play more than 3 games a week? His presence is a becoming cumbersome to the team that has only 12 position players, 2 being catchers. Seeing Vazquez play 2B when Lin should be is a huge WTF. A lot of what's going on with the Red Sox does kinda fall into the category of baseball being weird and random, but I do find it astounding that after the Pedroia/Nunez/Kinsler experience last year, they decided to head into 2019 with the exact same group of players.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 16, 2019 19:09:21 GMT -5
No, I don't think it would be stupider. I see absolutely no downside to getting ball & strike calls correct with technology. There's nobody who won't get a better seat. There's nobody who will get a ticket for 27 in a 25 zone. Your analogies just don't seem to apply. Who gets hurt by doing it right? I mean, what's your take on all the stuff I said about the 3-0 count?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 16, 2019 18:34:08 GMT -5
So I was right about this, and yet completely baffled by the sequence of events here.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 16, 2019 13:12:30 GMT -5
Hey, do you always drive the speed limit? If not, why? The rule as written is all that matters, right? No offense, fenway, but I have no idea at all what your point is here. My point is simply that there's a lot of situations in life where the rule as written says you have to do X, but everyone knows that really, you should do Y and it's fine. The rules as written say you should never move from your ticketed seats at Fenway, but if you wait out a rain delay or something, you're moving up to the good seats and it's pretty much cool. Like it would just be stupid to force the few diehards who stayed to sit behind 45 rows of empty seats, even though that's technically the rule. The rules of the strike zone say that the "gentleman's strike" on 3-0 is wrong, but despite the gimme strike, batters are still reaching base at a 75% clip in at-bats that reach 3-0. If you had the "real" strike zone in those counts, I doubt you'd even have pitches thrown in that count, they'd just IBB everyone. And so, even though that's technically the rule, wouldn't that be kind of a stupider version of baseball?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 15, 2019 13:17:59 GMT -5
Pedroia is dead weight now. You know, keeping three separate second baseman on the roster primarily for sentimental reasons may not have been the best choice in retrospect.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 15, 2019 13:11:32 GMT -5
But that doesn't explain the poor defense, the poor baserunning, and how unexplosive the offense has been. Last year, when they'd have an inning, they would HAVE an inning. This year they get dribs and drabs of offense, but it hasn't been the same. Mookie made that offense go and this year he has been passive and the lineup just hasn't ignited. The thing is, if the starting pitching had performed anywhere close to its expected level, the team is probably close to .500 and no one is that stressed out about these things.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 15, 2019 13:03:30 GMT -5
LMAO can't even get mad at the Chris Davis bomb. It was obvious it would happen as soon as Cora had CVaz at 2B. You don't mess around in this game, you have to play to win and if you don't you'll have Chris Davis hitting bombs out of you in 2019. I can sort of understand wanting to stay in a “it’s a long season” mentality but like you can only give away so many games to the Orioles before your season ends at the trade deadline. And while I still don’t think that’s going to happen, the probability gets higher with each loss.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 15, 2019 12:28:38 GMT -5
Regarding the debate going on in this thread about who's posts are worst, let me reassure the participants that they are both right. lol good one. I thought this was a fan site where we can come and be fans. Either be happy or voice frustration but u got a couple posters who are so much smarter than everyone and a staff writer who wont have any of that. Make your case and move on is my advice.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 15, 2019 12:23:43 GMT -5
Regarding the debate going on in this thread about who's posts are worst, let me reassure the participants that they are both right.
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