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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 1, 2019 6:44:15 GMT -5
Noted. (Fangraphs gave them a 47% chance of making the playoffs before today's win.) "With an impressive 5-1 victory over the A’s on Tuesday night, the Red Sox closed out April on an upswing — a 7-4 push to the end of the first leg of the season-long race. Even with their recent improvement, however, a 13-17 record and .443 winning percentage at the end of April almost never characterize a championship team. The last time a team ended April with a winning percentage as poor as that and still went on to win the World Series was 1980, when the Phillies overcame a 6-9 start. That last World Series winner to finish April as many as four games under .500 was the 1935 Tigers." www2.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/04/30/april-put-red-sox-hole-but-they-clearly-climbing-out/GIimhBI7m3tBX87YlMgplN/story.htmlLast post. I'm not saying it can't be done, but Speier just noted that the last team to win a world series while having this bad of a record into May was 39 or 84 years ago (depending on the way you look at it). This team has zero margin for error the rest of the way through. This is such bad methodology compared to just looking at the Fangraphs odds.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 29, 2019 11:24:18 GMT -5
And a year ago, Yoan Moncada couldn't lay off a breaking ball. There's a longstanding and fairly widespread consensus among scouts and other prospect watchers that Devers at least has the physical tools to be a decent MLB third baseman. All the statistical hairsplitting is besides the point as long as those fundamental factors (that he has the tools and that he's still super young) are still true. I don't see it. We know. But that doesn't prove it isn't there. You know what would prove that Devers will never be a decent 3b? Nothing, because he's super young and player development is inherently unpredictable. It's an untenable position.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 29, 2019 11:15:44 GMT -5
Been looking into how real the Montas breakout is. He's been BABIP and LOB% lucky, but the peripherals still look like a solid high-3s low-4s ERA guy. There's definitely some interesting stuff going on with his arsenal:
34.8% sinkers 26.6% sliders 21.9% four seamers 16.7% splitters
Weird, right? He came up throwing just a 4-seam and it got smoked, started throwing the sinker which gets smoked slightly less, and the 4-seam is more effective now that he doesn't throw it much, but neither is a great pitch by results. The splitter is new this year and it seems to be the difference maker, it's been his best pitch both for limiting contact and limiting power on contact.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 29, 2019 8:56:27 GMT -5
I feel bad for the kid, but he looks out of position. And a year ago, Yoan Moncada couldn't lay off a breaking ball. There's a longstanding and fairly widespread consensus among scouts and other prospect watchers that Devers at least has the physical tools to be a decent MLB third baseman. All the statistical hairsplitting is besides the point as long as those fundamental factors (that he has the tools and that he's still super young) are still true.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 28, 2019 12:48:21 GMT -5
He came into the day hitting .267/.370/.485. He was hitting over .350 to this point last year. He's been good recently, but he has only bounced back for the most part in the past week. Yeah well regardless of how much swing change kool-aid people drank last year, he's not a .350 hitter. What’s the deal with Pearce? He’s is the exact opposite of what he looked like in the batters box last year. We just can’t afford to have him and JBJ in the lineup at the same time. Batting below .150 If you want to figure out what's wrong with the Red Sox, look at the players who having given zero or negative-value contributions to the team, of which there are many. Don't blame your best player because he's underperforming his projections by 10% at the end of April.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 28, 2019 12:24:43 GMT -5
Mookie Betts is another reason why the Sox stink. Talk about a major regression from one year until the next. Those are your two best players and their performances just aren't good enough to this point. He came into the day hitting .267/.370/.485.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 25, 2019 19:04:49 GMT -5
Chavis is already better than Nunez in every way Agreed and DD and co. have to recognize that by now On the one hand, it's kind of ridiculous to say that about a guy just because he hit a couple dingers in a week... but on the other, Eduardo Nunez...
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 24, 2019 22:43:45 GMT -5
I give up. There is no logic or reason to this world. Truth itself a fallacy.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 24, 2019 16:15:04 GMT -5
Well, I guess he was one of those projection guys who actually turned out. It's just crazy to think merely growing is what's responsible from him going from a: .766 .764 .782 .859 .807 OPS to 1.000 1.244 OPS It wasn't just a physical projection thing, he was pegged for a long time as someone who's hard hit rates would yield a lot more power if he stopped hitting so many ground balls, which is part of what he's done with the Brewers. (He's also hitting the ball harder than he ever has on top of that.)
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 24, 2019 16:12:13 GMT -5
1. Extend Mookie Betts.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 24, 2019 7:25:04 GMT -5
At this point, offer Kimbrel a contract at one year at 10-12 million. The season is on the line at this point. You really have zero margin for error here. If you're out of it by July, you trade him for whatever you can get by then anyways. You tried to get cute with this dumb plan of bad bullpen arms. It isn't working. Get Kimbrel a job. Get him some of his value back so he can try this all over again with no QO attached. The problem (one of them, anyway) with this is that there's a pretty miserable track record for guys who've signed after spring training, Greg Holland being a good recent example. Given Kimbrel's on-again, off-again relationship with the strike zone, and how bad he is when he's not hitting it, I'd be pretty worried about expecting him to come in and be the closer right away.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 24, 2019 7:06:53 GMT -5
Yes, give Sandy all the credit when he's catching them well last year. Blame the pitchers when they pitch poorly this year. Whatever. I at least agree that the pitcher's stink this year, but also know now that Sandy Leon's game calling skills are highly overated too. This year proves that with the results. It's mostly random, and he's no better than any other defensive minded catcher out there really. All it proves is that a good defensive catcher with superior pitch calling skills can't work miracles. It doesn't prove that he can't be better than other catchers when a pitcher is pitching well.I can prove that 29 other teams don't think he's that much better at it than the catchers they already have...
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 24, 2019 6:58:41 GMT -5
we could use Moncada's .982 OPS We can't give up the Championship. I dunno. At the rate that this 2019 team is inventing new ways to be terrible, they'll be losing last year's games by midseason.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 22, 2019 18:17:42 GMT -5
I'm not going through this crap again. Good luck finding relief pitchers using years of BABIP data, when they become elite and fall apart all the time from season to season. Even then, they only get about 60-70 innings a year anyway which is about 1/3rd of a starter's season and still not enough to judge performance because the sample is too small. Relief pitchers REQUIRE you to evaluate them in tiny sample sizes. How the hell are you going to figure out if a pitcher who has a 0.00 ERA over 12 innings might have become a good pitcher without xwOBA?I’m partial to pitch type splits, myself. But you’re never going to know much from a 12 inning sample not matter what you’re looking at.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 22, 2019 9:38:31 GMT -5
Pedrioa will be back very soon. Might need a rehab stint, but it's not going to take long. Chavis needs to play everyday. He won't be doing that here. Lin will make most of the starts at second. Bottom line, I'll bet they DFA Nunez if Pedroia looks ready, the DL timing seemed suspicious. Pedroia's problem doesn't seem like "major issues" yet.Pedroia's knee would be a major issue even if he was currently healthy. It will never not be a major issue in whatever remains of his career, and it's certainly a major issue if he isn't currently able to play.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 20, 2019 12:34:05 GMT -5
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but the "loose bodies" thing is generally no a big deal, right?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 20, 2019 12:23:03 GMT -5
Calling fans stupid because they have witnessed under performance from Vasquez....then pimping pro Vasquez takes because he is on a hot streak....OK. I've been pro-Vazquez the whole time, just for the record.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 20, 2019 9:07:47 GMT -5
Yeah but..... He hit three hrs. last year and has 4 in April 2019. I recall that one year in the minors, he hit 18. I believe there were reports that he had worked on his swing in the off-season. In prior years it looked like he was fishing for contact. This year it appears as though he is swinging with more aggression. Maybe the Red Sox aren't nearly as stupid as fans think they are about their catchers. Well, they're not as stupid about Vazquez as some of their fans are, anyway.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 19, 2019 19:44:11 GMT -5
It know it’s been a rough start but this might not be the bomb you want to drop because the team is down two runs in the third inning. That was a bomb drop? I thought you were watching the Celtics.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 19, 2019 19:37:08 GMT -5
Cora told the media that Chavis will be playing 1B and 3B. In other words, this is a kick in the ass for Devers. I don't hate it. I know i scorched the idea of calling Chavis up earlier, but that was under the assumption that he would be getting called up to start at 2nd. That said, I’m still not crazy about it, I’d rather he was playing every day (which would necessarily keeping him in the minors at this point).
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 19, 2019 19:30:30 GMT -5
Sox' offense had 4 outs on 3 pitches. Don't know how this is possible, but they pulled it off. It know it’s been a rough start but this might not be the bomb you want to drop because the team is down two runs in the third inning.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 19, 2019 19:16:19 GMT -5
Nope.... Blame Cherington for a terrible contract to Pedroia. You CAN blame DD for counting on Pedroia coming back this year.....similar to him counting on Sandoval coming back in a prior year. Pedroia threw his teammates under the bus during the Machado incident and will never be accepted by his teammates. They are a much better team without him. Now there’s some revisionist history...
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 19, 2019 10:33:24 GMT -5
Chavis should be playing the Corner Outfield spots as well as 3B & 2B. The active roster needs another outfielder & someone who can hit. Can we stop dinking around with top prospects? I get moving him to 2B. He's a terrible 3B and there's a vacancy at 2B. I don't want to screw him up and having him move all over the place. He's new to 2B, the Sox have a need at 2B. Let him get his reps at the position. If they can start winning games then they can look into corner OF, but really, they have JD and Pearce who can take reps away from JBJ (not the Pearce has been great). If they're going to move a guy around, I wouldn't mind seeing Josh Ockimey get some reps at LF since he's a fringe guy anyways, but has power and a good eye (10bb/10k in 36 AB at AAA). Chavis has also only has 120 games in the high minors, spread across three seasons, and only 20 of those in AAA. I'm excited about his start too, but seriously, give him a minute here. I'm not a big believer in the idea that you alter or damage a player by calling him up too soon, I tend to think that whatever talent the player has will eventually express itself one way or another, but man, you couldn't be putting a guy in a worse spot than if you called Chavis up right now. Here kid, you've been playing this position for like three minutes and you're not a great defender to begin with, now save our season in front of 40,000 fans who don't read Sox Prospects and are ready to turn on you in an instant. You want another Blake Swihart situation? Because this is how you get another Blake Swihart situation. Just because "there(sic) both below average" doesn't mean that one isn't better than the other. It's not like everyone who is below average gets put into one category and it's the same value and it all comes out in the wash. Being 15 runs below average at third base is better than being 30 runs below average. That's grim, man.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 19, 2019 9:22:26 GMT -5
Still, not sure where I could find examples of smaller outfielders who were consistently good into their mid-to-late 30s. Willie Mays, Carl Yastrzemski, Rickey Henderson... Ichiro! Also, he's not actually that old yet, but Andrew McCutcheon's "decline" I think is proving to be not much more than a couple injuries and one bad ballpark.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 19, 2019 9:21:29 GMT -5
It seemed high with our incomplete information. If the Red Sox had any reason to think Espinoza was an injury risk, they were proven right. (Seriously, the trade happened three years ago and he's made seven more professional starts). If the Red Sox thought Pomeranz was a good bet to continue to be good, they were mostly right (he was useful to a team that badly needed him in 2016, excellent in 2017, broken in 2018). Could they have gotten "more" for Espinoza? Without knowing that, it's kind of impossible to say, right? But they definitely sold high on him, and definitely got a key piece of those 2016 and 2017 division-winning teams. I thought it was a bad trade at the time and said so a lot. But it's not just that the trade worked out, it's that it worked out in pretty much exactly the way someone defending the trade would have defended it. Dombrowski was right on this one. I think their reason was that he throws baseballs, a lot, and very hard. Which is a pretty good reason! What I think is true, and what I very well may have said at the time, is that Pomeranz at the time he was acquired represented a better player than the median outcome for a prospect like Espinoza. I think we were too worried about the worst case scenario, without properly weighing the likelihood of that scenario coming to pass.
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