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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 9, 2019 10:22:52 GMT -5
That play by JBJ was basically a 2 game swing in the standings. Go from demoralizing walk off loss, to an uplifting win that could be a spring board going forward, and a 500 record isntead of losing a series to the lowly birds and 2 games below 500. This is why I don't really care what JBJ hits/ Probably the worst time to make this argument, but what he hits still matters regardless of how good he is defensively. Jackie is hitting .142/.240/.170 right now. He's giving so many free outs to opposing teams that there just aren't enough balls hit to center field period to balance that ledger no matter how good he is. At 29, it seems more and more like 2016 was the career year for Jackie, and at this point he might be getting to the point of being more of a platoon guy. Which would be cool if there was a natural platoon option for him on the roster, but the way things are set up now, if you take any of JBJ's playing time away, you have to put a terrible defender in the outfield one way or another. Which still might be a net improvement given just how bad he is as a hitter right now, but it makes it a less obviously advantageous move.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 8, 2019 18:59:50 GMT -5
Thanks for the info. I wondered about his speed. I thought he looked slower this year but figured he couldn't be. It doesn't look like he is busting out of the box when he hits a ball. Curious as to reason his speed has deteriorated. I would think there's no way he could be or should be slower than Pearce. I suppose the obvious answer would be that it's injury related.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 8, 2019 15:56:09 GMT -5
I mean, we could be saying the exact same stuff about Cora if Joe Kelly hadn't had the best month of his entire career at exactly the right time, or if the wind had been blowing just a little bit harder during any number of Kimbrel near-meltdowns. Not that Roberts necessarily made all the right calls, but you know, there's nothing in the rulebook that says Scott Alexander had to throw four straight balls when he entered the game. I thought there was a better chance of Alexander throwing ball four than Urias being tough to hit out of the pen that night and when you consider that the bench had Bradley, Moreland, Devers, Swihart, and Kinsler on it, I'd prefer a lefty like Urias in the game. Once Alexander walked Holt on non-competitive pitches, Madson was right in the game with all those lefties (excluding Kinsler obviously) looming - and it was the same way in the 9th. The point was that Baez and Urias were "unavailable", even though had been off between Games 2 and 3 and weren't overly taxed in Game 4. Contrast that to the Red Sox starters doing what they did, and when it's over you realize the Sox were going to do everything in their power to win, while the Dodgers were going to have restrictions. Maybe it pays off for them. Urias is as good as ever and they ride that to a World Championship. They've done a great job for the long haul, but once you're in the Series, it's a sprint. You never know if you're going to get another chance - which was a point David Ortiz hammered home during the 6th inning of Game 4 of the 2013 World Series. That's not that unlike John McNamara waiting for a 9th inning lead in Game 7 of the 1986 World Series to use Roger Clemens in relief. He kept waiting and waiting while the pen imploded once Hurst was removed. You can't always be cautious. Ironically I thought Cora was too risky at times in the post-season, but it worked out. See bolded.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 8, 2019 15:54:44 GMT -5
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 8, 2019 10:50:58 GMT -5
I'd hate to see them become the early 90s Buffalo Bills of baseball. I can respect their caution, but it still blows my mind, with the chance of evening the World Series in plain sight, they opted not to pitch Urias or Baez after they mistakenly took out Hill. Too cautious. If they can get to the World Series this year, and they have as excellent chance as anyone given that their talent is so very there, I hope they go all in. I mean, we could be saying the exact same stuff about Cora if Joe Kelly hadn't had the best month of his entire career at exactly the right time, or if the wind had been blowing just a little bit harder during any number of Kimbrel near-meltdowns. Not that Roberts necessarily made all the right calls, but you know, there's nothing in the rulebook that says Scott Alexander had to throw four straight balls when he entered the game.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 8, 2019 9:27:58 GMT -5
My god, when is Cody Bellinger going to come back to earth? He's still hitting .403, slugging .806 and on pace for a 13.6 win season as well as 60 HR, 145 runs and 162 rbis. It's like he's on pace for one of Babe Ruth's better seasons. Right? He's been incredible. It also sort of brings the Dodgers to another level. Like, they've been good the last couple years by being basically well rounded, without any obvious stars but no real holes either. They won 92 (with a 102-60 Pythag) with Justin Turner leading the team in bWAR at 4.5. Bellinger is already 3/4 there on May 8! Like, Kershaw isn't a CY contender anymore I don't think, but Ross Stripling is their #7 starter. That's ridiculous depth. Obviously anything can happen in the playoff and all that jazz, but I'd say they are the favorites right now. Julio Urias, who showed up in spring training blowing 97, and has struck out nearly 30% of the hitters he's faced this year, has also been banished to the pen. It's insane.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 8, 2019 8:02:22 GMT -5
On the winter rosters, the #6 guys were German and Stephen Wright. Pretty clear edge to the Sox. NFBC draft results since the end of the 2018 season: Player Average pick Min pick Max pick German 435.70 229 647 Wright 737.84 579 750 And yes, I excluded draft results from after the PED suspension for Wright's numbers. Didn't help. You could also argue that this is less about the quality of the players in question and more about their respective likelihoods of seeing significant playing time. But what I'll draw your attention to is that out of the 478 drafts represented in this sample, no one took him above the 579th pick. I'm not even trying to make an argument about the quality of the player here. What I am trying to communicate is that your opinion of Steven Wright is shared by approximately no one.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 5, 2019 11:21:09 GMT -5
I love it , the media the Red Sox have the 30 ranked minor league system. We bring up one guy Chavis and he is kicking ass from the minor leagues. Keep talking about our system. You can have all these guys ranked in the top 100 but it’s just looks good on paper . I rather have one guy that can graduate and produce. They never have a ranking for that. Would you trade Chavis for Vlad Jr, today?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 5, 2019 9:16:13 GMT -5
Pre-season projection: .231/.292/.409 Updated projection: .240/.307/.453 Today: .242/.310/.463
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 4, 2019 21:33:41 GMT -5
I don’t know if he’ll have a .307 OBP at the end of the year. Through the end of the year. Anyway, it'll be fun to see what the projection is tomorrow.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 4, 2019 11:56:05 GMT -5
\You can't make people take the red pill? People hate those they perceive as know it alls even though they are actually right? Humility is the source of all wisdom.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 4, 2019 11:52:02 GMT -5
The scouts on BA graded out Chavis as a 60 Raw power. I have to say I disagree with that. Seems more like at least a 70 to me. He displays Mickey Mantle like power. Mantle, too was 5’10 and people couldn’t believe he hit the ball that far. More impressively...his plate discipline, defense, and hit tool seem to come better than advertised. He looks like a future all star, but too early too tell. Love the potential infield core of the future X, Devers, Chavis.... Ok, time to pump the breaks on Chavis a little bit... It's harder than you'd think to map the power tool to any one metric, and Chavis still has a very small sample anyway, but his max exit velo so far has been about 110, which is good but not eye-popping. You can approach the batted ball numbers in many different ways, but I don't really see anything that puts him into THAT elite a tier for power. And as far as the hit tool, it's been pretty bad, despite the .310 average. 16.6% swinging strike rate so far, .375 BABIP, 30.3% home run to fly ball rate... these numbers are suggest major regression is coming. Don't get me wrong, this has been a best-case-scenario season for Chavis, and I think he's meaningfully improved his stock even in the short run he's had so far, but he hasn't really shown a skill set that matches the surface production. As always, I like to go to the projections systems for a baseline of what to expect. Per THE BAT, the current state of the art in public projection systems to my understanding: Pre-season projection: .231/.292/.409 Updated projection: .240/.307/.453
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 3, 2019 17:48:02 GMT -5
Marcus Walden is on pace for 20 wins. Ya, but can you look me straight in the face while telling me that isn't a anomaly? Can you also look me in the face and tell me that you aren't concerned with Devers' defense given the trend? I mean I'm definitely not as concerned as you are.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 3, 2019 12:28:20 GMT -5
You really need a good 4th OF with Bradley, so you can platoon him when he goes ice cold like this. He's so streaky and those streaks last a long time. Everyone needs a better 4th outfielder than the Red Sox have.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 2, 2019 19:45:02 GMT -5
Not pulling any punches on WEEI. When McCann’s hit went out, they said that the ball is juiced this year. Is anyone not saying the ball is juiced this year?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 2, 2019 14:04:12 GMT -5
Hard pass.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 2, 2019 13:38:47 GMT -5
I can't believe you've all been trolled into arguing against "every free agent signed by the other 29 teams in the last 17 years is John Henry's personal failure." Hey remind me, have the economics of baseball changed at all in the last fifteen years? There's an argument to be had here, but I'm not sure Johnny Damon is really part of it...
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 2, 2019 11:20:01 GMT -5
This is a very strange turn in the conversation regarding a team that has had the highest payroll in MLB both this year and last. This is kind of like being the most generous mafia don in the city.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 2, 2019 8:54:41 GMT -5
It's going to be brought up a lot regardless. This season, this off-season, next season. If the Sox don't become sellers, then great, that's what everyone wanted. The Sox to be competitive all year. They weren't until recently. Either way, you have a stingy owner when it comes to spending a ton of money on contracts (Mookie is asking for 100 million more than David Price) and you have a superstar that isn't backing down from his asking price (turned down 100 and 200 million dollars from the Sox in 2 different off-seasons). It took Henry 13-15 years since he owned the team to spend on a contract larger than Manny Ramirez, just to put that into perspective. I don't have much faith in Henry to spend the money to keep Betts. John Henry is stingy? That's a new take. What are every other owner in baseball?Pretty much the same.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 1, 2019 21:37:54 GMT -5
Oh, don't worry....the Orioles will find some way to screw up his development. They'll probably draft someone cheaper and then not spend the extra money saved. They have like a real front office now. You can tell because they’re trying to lose 120 games.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 1, 2019 21:34:46 GMT -5
It was a great series. Hopefully, they can build on the momentum. JBJ remains a huge concern and liability. How much longer can the team wait on him? Here’s the problem, who do you give his playing time to? The overall lack of MLB depth kind of forces them to wait it out with him.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 1, 2019 20:50:13 GMT -5
Some newly-minted optimists in this thread, I see.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 1, 2019 20:49:23 GMT -5
Swihart back at the end of the bench. 2 ABs in last week. 1 for 26 going back to time in Bos. One hit traveled 20 feet. Marcus Wilson hasn't hit. But he is in the lineup. What is it with teams wanting Swihart on the roster, but never actually in the lineup?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 1, 2019 15:37:05 GMT -5
WAR Leaderboard Travis Shaw = -0.4 Tyler Thornburg = -0.1 Big time trade win. If Shaw can just have a negative seven and a half WAR season, I think we'll be in the clear.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 1, 2019 9:38:24 GMT -5
And just how many Wild Card teams were involved 39 and 84 years ago? The statistical slight-of-hand here is that every team has fairly long odds to win the World Series at the end of April, no matter what their record. You basically don't have better than an even-money shot until you've actually reached the series. And on top of that, we know that the Red Sox are a far better team on talent than most of the teams that have finished April with a losing record.
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