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Post by ramireja on Jul 13, 2023 10:20:22 GMT -5
Draft signing are starting to come in. Braves and Angels signed their 1st rounders to announced deals and the Braves added a couple more. I like Nolan Schanuel and all, but boy if I were an Angels fan I would have hoped that deal would have come in underslot.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 12, 2023 18:51:01 GMT -5
Antonio Anderson and Kristian Campbell are part of the same Atlanta area baseball academy and I imagine are buds:
Anderson on left, Campbell on right
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Post by ramireja on Jul 11, 2023 16:49:41 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Jul 11, 2023 15:38:41 GMT -5
Is Dylan Schlaegel completely unsignable? or is he a guy who might take 250-300K if they have enough money laying around? I suppose none of you really don't know.....so don't kill my dream. It’s a good question, and I don’t know but I will say there have been exactly two unsigned HS picks on Day 3 of each of the last two drafts (since 20 rounds were implemented). So that suggests to me the Sox don’t want to put all of their insurance eggs in one basket. Who knows though…maybe a surprise.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 11, 2023 14:40:51 GMT -5
Love the name. But is there any chance he's anything more than a contingency pick? No I think his draft position makes it pretty clear he is insurance only. The way Day 3 has played out, I’m thinking Antonio Anderson is getting a big, big bonus.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 11, 2023 14:01:05 GMT -5
This is about the spot where we tend to take some contingency picks
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Post by ramireja on Jul 11, 2023 12:18:29 GMT -5
The FaBIO ratings for the 114 college hitters taken on Days 1 and 2 have Justin Riemer at #2 overall (behind only Nolan Schanuel) and Kristian Campbell at #15 overall (or just ahead of Jacob Gonzalez).
Will these guys be better than Dylan Crews who ranks just below both? Ha...no. Does that make this rating system worthless? Nah, not worthless, although there are serious limitations. For one, these models don't take into account exit velocity or any other metric of how hard a ball is hit. Instead, these models only factor in batted ball type (e.g., GB vs. LD vs. FB). Further, I think some of the weighting of batted ball profile is a bit wonky and I have some questions about overall FaBIO scores that get computed. Clearly guys like Reimer and Campbell do very well in the models due to elite to near elite on-base skills and contact rates. Their batted ball data definitely leaves something to be desired and we as fans should take that into account even if they're not really showing up in those players' overall FaBIO scores. I don't want anyone to think that I'm promoting this stuff and claiming we got the steals of the century.
All that said, I do think the FaBIO ratings certainly pick up on a skillset of high value to the Red Sox. These guys fit the Chase Meidroth profile quite well in a hit/approach sense and he is another guy who FaBIO was high on. Low and behold, Meidroth is now a top 20 prospect in our system and a guy whose name I see with relevance for dynasty fantasy baseball leagues. Campbell in particular has a set of tools that are quite interesting to complement the advanced hit/approach. These are interesting dudes for sure.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 11, 2023 10:15:44 GMT -5
I'm going to be slightly annoying and repost something I posted in one of the earlier draft threads because its most relevant now:
So here we are on Day 3 and this draft looks remarkably similar in strategy to last year's draft. That leads me to believe that the Red Sox have minimal (if any) $ to overslot today. The big question for me related to that is: Does Antonio Anderson get the Roman Anthony sized bonus (~$2.5M) or something more in line with Blaze Jordan ($1.75M)? My guess though is that there is a preference with a 20 round draft to have the majority of the bonus pool allocated for Day 1 and 2 picks and to draft at slot in Day 3 in addition to drafting a backup contingency plan should something fall through with planned spending.
The big thing to pay attention today is: Who do we select in Round 11? Is it a college player likely to accept the max slot offer (Marques Johnson) or at least near slot (Niko Kavadas)? If so, I think thats a strong sign that no substantial spending is planned for today. If that 11th round pick is a HS guy of any pedigree (doesn't have to be top 100 by any means but someone with some buzz), then there may be a little $ to play with (thinking something along the lines of a Brannon or Northcut type of bonus). One other important thing to remember: There will almost certainly be a HS pick or two today with some pedigree! That said, if those picks even occur in Round 13 or later, I'd view them purely as contingency picks unlikely to sign along the lines of 2022: Rd 13 - Gavin Kilen, Rd 14 - Travis Sanders, 2021: Rd 13: Zach Ehrhard, Rd 15: Payton Green. I think the HS pick has to be in Round 11 to have a shot of signing excluding some off-the-board HS picks in the last few rounds eager to start their career like Deundre Jones.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 10, 2023 17:02:36 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Jul 10, 2023 16:47:37 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Jul 10, 2023 16:44:42 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Jul 10, 2023 16:31:16 GMT -5
Interestly, not a ton of current velocity reported from the crop of pitchers selected today….most seem to sit low 90s. There does appear to be the preference for other FB characteristics that we’ve seen emerge more in recent classes. I say that without having done a ton of digging but the scouting reports would suggest that. Maybe there’s also some hope of adding velo with the Driveline guys we’ve added to the developmental team this past year.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 10, 2023 13:24:49 GMT -5
Antonio Anderson ranked #60 over at FanGraphs with a 40+ (High risk) grade:
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Post by ramireja on Jul 10, 2023 12:29:36 GMT -5
Zanetello had arguably the best performance in a limited sample among players on the 2022 18U USA National team during the World Cup qualifying tourney (note: this isn't the same roster that later featured Aidan Miller, Bryce Eldridge, and Max Clark among others). Still though, Zanetello lead the team in hitting .429 and among his 9 hits he had 6 2Bs and 1 HR. He walked 5 times to 3Ks, went 5-for-5 in SBs (which also led team), and made no errors in the field.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 10, 2023 12:17:18 GMT -5
Brief scouting writeup from PG on Zanetello based on his performance at the WWBA World Championship in Jupiter of October, 2022:
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Post by ramireja on Jul 10, 2023 10:34:55 GMT -5
In terms of ranking, I think Teel will actually slot anywhere in the 3-6 range in our system among most national outlets. I don't want to speak on behalf of this site, because SP can take a more conservative approach with monthly updates and a preference to get live looks before ranking aggressively. That said, I think things are trending such that Mayer (consensus top 20) and Roman Anthony would be our consensus top 100 prospects right now across all major national ranking outlets. Then, a tier of Rafaela, Yorke, and Bleis will have some support and might make a top 100 list or two but are unlikely to be consensus top 100 guys. I think Teel being a consensus top 10 talent in this strong draft, will also fall into the fringe top 100 tier so I'd put him right there in that 3-6 range. Of course, things can change between now and the end of the season with guys like Romero, Perales, and Wikelman capable of finishing strong and also being part of that tier.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 9, 2023 19:33:54 GMT -5
I wonder if he skips Low-A to jump past the Garcia/Brannon/Lira logjam I could see high-a with fairly quick promotion opportunity to AA (the Meidroth path) to get past Brannon/Garcia
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Post by ramireja on Jul 9, 2023 14:49:37 GMT -5
I'm heading down to Lumen Field shortly to check out the pre-draft festivities. My final prediction at #14 is probably the guy who most people had originally linked the Sox to...Kevin McGonigle. Matt Shaw seems like the other real possibility. It does feel like a year without a clear BPA guy at #14 thus making the underslot strategy more attactive. McGonigle should fit the bill and his profile screams Red Sox over the past few years. All that said, this feels like a year with 50 other guys in play. I don't recall the board feeling this wide open after the first 5 picks or so. I'm mostly prepared to be surprised, and the Red Sox have done a fine job drafting the past few years, so I'll generally just be excited about whoever the Red Sox are excited about at #14 barring a giant surprise. Look for the guy with the Manny Ramirez jersey charging the stage at pick #14!
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Post by ramireja on Jul 9, 2023 10:13:29 GMT -5
The futures game was a lot of fun to attend yesterday....bought 300 level tickets (upper deck) but was easy enough to slide on down to 100 level. The Red Sox showed well as you can see above.
I was a bit disappointed that Mayer was pulled in deference to Holliday after the 1st (or 2nd?) inning, but he was able to show off his hit tool, baserunning prowess, and defense all in a short time.
Yorke looked fairly smooth to me with his defensive actions both in the game and during pregame warmups. He made a great play in the game with a glove flip play to first base beating out James Wood who had a sprint time > 30mph up the line. Also, I admittedly I may have some missed plays, but Yorke's hit seemed to be the best of the game in terms of pairing exit velocity with ideal launch angle. Pitching dominated much of the game which makes sense given the special arms dialing it up for 1 inning stints. Speaking of....
Misiorowski looked nasty and sat comfortably at 100 mph and slightly over on his FB. His offspeed was nasty too. That's a special arm.
All in all, the players looked like they had a really fun time and that's nice to see. These are basically kids after all.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 9, 2023 10:04:58 GMT -5
One trend to consider…since the draft reduced in size to 20 rounds in 2021, the Red Sox have done very little overslot spending on Day 3. There was no Day 3 overslot spending in 2022, and only $125,000 of Day 3 overslot spending in 2021 (Kavadas). Compare that to 2019 -- $770,000 in overslot spending (Cellucci, Loubier, Simas, and Blalock), 2018 -- $588,000 overslot (Northcut, Machamer, and Howlett), and so on. This makes sense. Prior to 2020 when the draft was 40 rounds, you could draft a number of Day 3 overslot options with a variety of contingency plans. Now, you need to have a firm plan for that overslot spending that you can trust while maybe using ~2 picks on Day 3 as overslot contingency. So as a result, we’ve seen the overslot spending shifting primarily to Day 2 and spread among fewer players – Hickey in 2021, Anthony and Brannon in 2022. That trend is likely to continue this year and beyond with a 20 round draft.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 8, 2023 14:35:28 GMT -5
Need a write-up on Garcia like I need oxygen. He and Brannon are a breath of fresh air in the lower levels at C. I'd definitely like to hear about defensive projection. One good sign? Last year, he threw out 26 attempted base stealers last year to 32 SBs (45% CS rate). This year he's thrown out 7 against 10 successful SBs (41% CS rate) in the FCL.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 8, 2023 11:28:46 GMT -5
Mayer starting at SS and batting 2nd. Yorke starting at 2B and batting 9th.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 8, 2023 10:46:39 GMT -5
Starting a thread for one of the biggest risers in the July SP rankings. Johanfran's recent performance even got a Gammons retweet of a SP tweet:
Its always a fun thought experiment to consider where a player like Johanfran might project in this draft as a HS C with hit and power ability.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 8, 2023 10:29:47 GMT -5
7/8 All-Star Futures Game (featuring Marcelo Mayer, Nick Yorke & Luis Guerrero) 7:00 pm ET, Peacock 7/10 Home Run Derby (featuring Luis Robert Jr., Pete Alonso, Mookie Betts, Adolis Garcia, Randy Arozarena, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Julio Rodriguez, Adley Rutschman) 8:00 pm ET, ESPN 7/11 MLB All-Star Game (featuring Kenley Jensen) 8:00 pm ET, FOX MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2023: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
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Post by ramireja on Jul 7, 2023 16:16:50 GMT -5
What’s with the As pitching change? Hmmm...switching to a LHP reliever. My guess is he's an opener but it's just a guess.
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