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Recent Posts
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 20, 2024 16:45:21 GMT -5
The Yankees are about to sign Snell, aren't they?! Yikes. Nah, he’s just being a malcontent.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 20, 2024 16:32:29 GMT -5
Curious to see what those incentives look like. A little worried the deal is structured so that the Red Sox don't even get a good deal if he comes back and has a nice 2025. He averaged 2.4 fWAR/season from 2019-2022 (and that's not even adjusting for 2020 games played), so I would hope that the incentives are more or less contingent on regaining that form, in which that's definitely fair value.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 19, 2024 9:01:13 GMT -5
I like this move - relatively low risk to moderate reward. Certainly a worthy gamble and should be an easy guy to root for.
Would imagine this makes it more likely that Kenley is a deadline deal, if anything (which probably makes more sense anyway).
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 18, 2024 10:17:01 GMT -5
Curious where he will rank here to start, I’m gonna guess in the 16-22 range, but I suppose it depends on the reports of his stuff currently. We should start taking bets on this stuff. I’m more bullish than you, I see him in the 13-16 range, and if I had to pick a definite slot I’ll go 14. I’ll bet you $2,000 he’s ranked 17th. Totally unrelated, but @chris, do you wanna make $1000? DM me…
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 17, 2024 23:14:08 GMT -5
Just got back from Austin, working a Longhorn Network game that Texas hilariously lost in extra innings. Honestly not a ton of high end draft prospects to discuss, I missed LeBarron Johnson (yesterday) and Tanner Witt (tomorrow, I guess?), which was unfortunate. Charlie Hurley, their starter today, is not much of a prospect to me. Big body, not a ton of power stuff or command, just kind of a college workhorse-y type.
The one guy that I think may be eligible as an older sophomore is Jared Thomas, but he's a bit of a weird profile. He's a true leadoff guy, really good contact skills and a good athlete, got a few good swings in where he pulled some timely line drives of hits. The issue is that he's a middle infield type of athlete playing first base for this Texas team. Part of that is context, as this Texas team is built very similarly to last year's Oklahoma team where there are a lot of athletes and a lot of guys who will elongate an at-bat, but not a ton of physicality. If not Thomas, I'm really not sure who would play first, looking at their roster. He's also left-handed, which limits him to outfield duty if he's not at first, which I feel like he's athletic to play, but it's not as if he's blocked by a stellar right fielder. So I just don't know exactly where his fit is at the next level, but he's definitely talented.
They have some other guys I find interesting (he's only a freshman but Will Gasparino is extremely my brand of baseball player, I like David Shaw as a funky relief-only guy though he didn't pitch today), but was not an overwhelmingly talented team.
The one big surprise of the day, though, was Logan Reddemann, San Diego's starter. Granted, only a freshman, so certainly not draft eligible, but absolutely an interesting name to follow to me, especially in the day and age of the transfer portal when this kid could be playing for a USC next year, realistically. As a true freshman making his first start, he was a relative unknown coming into the day, to the point where the broadcast team straight up admitted they had nothing on the kid in rehearsals, not even knowing how to pronounce his name. But he pretty quickly got everyone's attention when he started sitting 91-93 with a sinker and throwing a really quality breaking ball. The numbers won't jump off the screen (5 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 4K, 3 ER off of one HR), but he had a solid frame (6'2", looked maybe a tad shorter than that) and was really poised for a freshman on the road in his first start. He absolutely mowed Texas down the first time through the order, getting a few whiffs and generating a ton of weak contact on the ground. Mixed in a changeup very sporadically, but worked mostly off of the sinker and the breaker and was very comfortable locating both. He could very well fade into obscurity and that just be a one-off good game, but I came away very impressed and for a true freshman at a smaller school to have that kind of power stuff, that certainly merits a follow to me.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 17, 2024 9:55:05 GMT -5
The Blue Jays really need him to be a beast again - despite elite batted ball data he only slashed .264/.345/.444 with 26 home runs. To redsox04071318champs’ point about the Yankees lineup being no joke this year, in contrast this is what the Jays lineup has morphed into: Springer (will turn 35 by the end of the year) Bichette Vladdy Turner (just turned 39) Varsho Kirk Schneider/Biggio Kiner-Falefa Kiermaier (with Danny Jansen, new Minor League signing Volgebach and Espinal on the bench) This lineup honestly doesn’t scare me if Vladdy isn’t in MVP mode. Like for comparison, Wilyer Abreu legit might be a better hitter than like half these dudes. Wow, if you’d have asked me to guess Springer’s age I would’ve been at least 3 years off
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 17, 2024 0:44:34 GMT -5
One game in and Braden Montgomery and Jace LaViolette already have 112 mph and 114 mph homers, respectively (I know he’s 2025 butJace added a second for good measure).
Those two are just ridiculous, going to be a ton of fun to watch that lineup all year.
Excited to dive a little more into the day’s boxes when I am prepping for the Texas game tomorrow, but Brecht’s line made me lol.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 16, 2024 15:20:55 GMT -5
Missed your post, my bad! Oh no I posted a different link than you I was just joking that my calling out FG for not having updated their list inspired them to do it (ignoring the fact this was explicitly scheduled haha).
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 16, 2024 15:07:57 GMT -5
I'm taking credit for this!
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 16, 2024 12:26:26 GMT -5
Could it also be that Longenhagen is dinging Mayer because he's lost essentially a year of development time to injuries. Granted, none of these injuries appear to be of the chronic "gotta watch that" type, but cumulatively, they could've put up a flag in the model. I have no knowledge this explains his ranking, just postulating. Feels like if that were the case, Bleis would’ve fallen out of the top 100 (at least assuming the same logic gets applied consistently).
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 16, 2024 12:18:27 GMT -5
Fangraphs did a little college baseball preview piece (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-seven-college-baseball-teams-you-need-to-know/) and it's fine, it discusses a couple less publicized teams but doesn't get into prospects all that much, and it just makes me sad how their staff issues have pretty much tanked their draft coverage. I've talked before about how I don't love people categorizing work they disagree with as "lazy", and I don't want to even call Fangraphs' staff that. But..
If you're going to have a 2024 MLB Draft board, you should probably at least make sure the players have the right team listed by Opening Day of college baseball. Even if you can look past Braden Montgomery not being listed with A&M, Thatcher Hurd pitched for LSU all last season. That type of objective measure is the type of thing that makes me take a lot of their prospect stuff with a grain of salt, even if their lead analysts are some of my favorite in the game.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 15, 2024 23:42:32 GMT -5
Fangraphs (Longerhagen and Taruken) seem to be very low on Teel's Fielding (40/50) and arm (50) compared to other publications. I've seen the strange throwing motion, but as it hasn't really hindered him so far and he's shown plus-level pop-times, I figure that's more of an aesthetic grade. I haven't heard of the issues they describe with his mechanics behind the plate and receiving - does anyone who has seen him in person have further insight? blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-top-100-prospects/ I saw him at UVA and it did look a little funky but it was effective. It was weird but kind of fun, if Longenhagen has a reason to think that’s all a hindrance I can’t say definitively that he’s wrong but it didn’t seem to hurt him at all in the few games I watched of him. Thinking a bit more on it, this is probably more psychology scouting than I feel great about doing with any sort of conviction, but as far as the behind the plate movement goes, he might just be kind of a fidgety guy? He does the Juan Soto shuffling around when he hits too, or at least did when I saw him, so maybe he just feels comfortable when he's moving around a little more. Not a bad thing to me, just an observation.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 15, 2024 17:51:48 GMT -5
Well at least we know how long we’ll have Theo
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 15, 2024 12:58:07 GMT -5
In an attempt to steer the ship back onto course a little bit, I will note that I've read Bleis' writeup a couple times now, and my interpretation of it is that they are itching for an excuse to move him up. I do think he fits the very Fangraphs "type", so that's not surprising, but it's nice to be reminded of why everyone was so excited for him going into last year.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 15, 2024 12:39:02 GMT -5
The degree to which Spencer Jones lives rent free in this boards’ head is absurd. I get that as Sox fans there’s some gravitation towards hating the Yankees whenever possible but if the general consensus of objective (relatively) pundits like him, and Sox fans don’t… who’s the biased party here? That’s not to see that they’re all right and that he’s a perfect prospect, but it’s also pretty obvious what they see in him, so I just don’t understand the collective need to fanatically complain about him in particular. This is the thread for commenting on national lists, is it not? Longenhagen is the only one who’s really in love with him, he didn’t even make Keith Law’s top 100. Where else is one to comment about how national lists rank our biggest rival’s prospects? I have to admit though, you yourself made a very insightful contribution to the discussion by pointing out that the Apple iPhone loves to autocorrect Mayer to Meyer. And now that Keith Law is saying good things about the Red Sox, I’m going to assume no one here is going to categorize his stuff as “lazy” anymore? I’m just pointing out that the commentary is disingenuous, if people want to have reasonable discussions about Jones’ ranking and projections I think that’s great but the incessant whining is obnoxious, especially when in my mind threads about rankings or the draft are ideally a safe haven from the copious amounts of that we already get everywhere else.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 15, 2024 12:23:55 GMT -5
The degree to which Spencer Jones lives rent free in this boards’ head is absurd.
I get that as Sox fans there’s some gravitation towards hating the Yankees whenever possible but if the general consensus of objective (relatively) pundits like him, and Sox fans don’t… who’s the biased party here?
That’s not to see that they’re all right and that he’s a perfect prospect, but it’s also pretty obvious what they see in him, so I just don’t understand the collective need to fanatically complain about him in particular.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 15, 2024 9:29:15 GMT -5
Meyer at 69 while Spencer Jones is at 15. Huh. Max Meyer is 56th, FWIW. Unless you were talking about Noble Meyer, he's 78th.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 14, 2024 13:47:51 GMT -5
I'm arguing that the Sox have been poor at developing starting pitching better than a 4th/5th starter for 12-15 years. There have been a few outliers recently (Bello, maybe Crawford), but overall they are still substandard at it. When Bloom was hired we were told he was a pitching development and scouting guru, but the results remained mixed. With two guys ascending it could be whatever developmental protocols he implemented. There were some nice pick-ups, but again, relievers and 4th/5th starters, which the Sox have been OK at producing. Also, the near immediate success of got-aways in other systems - Péréz, Springs Strahm among others - makes one wonder. All of this is to say, we've heard the pitching genius siren's song before. I'll believe it when they develop some #2 and #1 starters again. I'll add that it's dispiriting when ownership runs the same BS at us year after year since mid-2019 and expects us to swallow it over and over again. I'll believe it when I see it on the field. Maybe I'm not remembering correctly, but when was Bloom ever touted as a pitching development guru? People just conflate anyone that’s ever touched the Rays as being pitching King Midas, I think.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 13, 2024 17:43:36 GMT -5
It’s cherry picking because he picked good players in Casas and Anthony. It’s not like he going to pick position players that didn’t work out, right? But you're missing the point. A hitter that is drafted that then doesn't work out isn't a wasted pick because it's a hitter, it's because the player didn't work out. Like, in your own cherry-picked argument, you talk about Nick Yorke vs. Bobby Miller. Sure, I'd rather have Miller than Yorke at this point, but I'd also rather have PCA or Jordan Walker, too. Because while balance is a nice thing to have, again, the most important thing is getting the pick right.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 13, 2024 16:51:14 GMT -5
This is a zero-sum situation: to spend more draft resources on pitching means spending less on position players. Does anyone really wish we had gone with pitchers instead of Casas or Anthony just so that we'd have a more "balanced" system? That's one (or two!) cherry picked for you. Now what do you say to people that cherry pick wishing the Sox had taken Bobby Miller (drafted #29) instead of Nick Yorke (#17)? Ha, jokes on them. Miller already graduated and merely helps the Dodgers win actual MLB games and has nothing to do with balancing the system. That's not cherry-picking, that's just saying that there's an opportunity cost either way, and that getting good players should continue to be the sole priority (my interpretation of it, at least).
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 13, 2024 16:35:57 GMT -5
Honest question: Where are they better this year than they were last year? Objectively, the starting rotation looks pretty bad, the bullpen looks good and the offense looks pretty thin. I can envision a scenario where the lack of depth in the rotation destroys the depth in the bullpen by late-May. Will the Sox have the punch to outscore everyone from that point on? Turner was probably the most clutch hitter on the team last year. Who replaces that for this team? Also, everyone seems convinced that Grissom is the next Pedroia. But what if he’s not? What if he’s more Christian Arroyo than Pedroia? They are kind of putting all their eggs in one basket with him. I’m skeptical. I’m no gambler, but I fail to see how this team is better than the one that finished last season. If Vegas has this team at over/under of 80 or 81 then hammer the under. The East is way too good and on paper the team has too many questions and not enough consistency to back it up. In order for this team to get to .500 in this division we will need to see huge leaps forward by Bello and some of the other young guys, Duran Pivetta and Casas to build on last year and Giolito to come back to form for the first time since they outlawed the sticky stuff. It could happen. There's a lot of things that could happen. Would I bet on it? Absolutely not. I'm laying out the absolute best case scenario and I fail to see how this team finishes higher than 4th in that scenario. Orioles and Rays are absolutely loaded with talent. Yankees on paper are better as are the Blue Jays. This changes with a legitimate #2 starter on this team. If they add that I think the team could get 82-84 wins. Without it you're probably looking at 75-78. Not bad enough to bottom out but not good enough to make the playoffs. Probably will pick around the 9-14 range next year. For what its worth I'm bullish on Grissom probably more than most on the board. You think a #2 starter is worth roughly 6 wins?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 13, 2024 15:04:05 GMT -5
… Is anyone actually doing that? Lol I've been shrugged off as a "WEEI Caller" by multiple people, multiple times this off-season, and when I posted a month ago that we are a worse team than the one we fielded last year I was told how stupid I was, because OF COURSE we're going to get better over the next month. Well....it's next month - pitchers and catchers are reporting - and we haven't done a damn thing since then. Meanwhile, those same posters have now switched from "Of course we're going to get better" to somehow "we're better" Which, as I said, was weird. Oh okay, so that was less "actual observation" and more "I'm unhappy people disagree with me". Gotcha. Given your posting history, I'm going to go ahead and continue with my skepticism that anyone here is actually dead-set on the idea that this is a definite playoff team.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 13, 2024 14:50:25 GMT -5
I think it's a pretty healthy attitude to seek out the enjoyable within situations you don't control. Totally fair. And the post directly above my last by bettsonmookie is a great example of that. "They're going to suck, but I'll still have fun with it." I'm more talking about the ones that are ignoring the lack of moves, still predicting a playoff team, and then flaming anyone who thinks otherwise. … Is anyone actually doing that? Lol
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 13, 2024 14:37:41 GMT -5
Take a look at this doozy from yesterday's FG chat: blogs.fangraphs.com/ben-clemens-fangraphs-chat-2-12-24/ bosoxforlife: Is the Lucas Giolito contract the worst one of this off-season, or do you agree with me that it belongs in the pantheon of awful contracts along with Pujols, Rendon and Bonilla? 2:56 Ben Clemens: I would not remotely put it up there with the worst contracts of all time 2:56 Ben Clemens: it’s just not enough money 2:57 Ben Clemens: I do agree that it was an overpay, and that’s with me being a Giolito fan overall
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 13, 2024 13:33:42 GMT -5
Honestly, that might be a little smaller than he's been... Yeah I was going to say the same thing, not sure you can assume from these photos he actually didn’t change his regimen, as he wasn’t going to go from this to being tiny in an offseason. He’s just a big dude.
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