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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 19, 2023 17:37:57 GMT -5
Taking a victory lap because a player on the team is having a bad month is pretty lame I mean, that guy has a history, do we expect any better?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 19, 2023 13:42:27 GMT -5
Cotillo has an article foreshadowing a buy and sell approach. If the âsellâ is Duvall and Kiké then yeah, sure, sign me up
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 19, 2023 11:43:18 GMT -5
How reactionary are we allowed to be with him? I mentioned it when I brought up the proposed Giolito trade, but I am genuinely concerned about Yorke right now. I ultimately think he will be a major leaguer to some extent still, but given the struggles he's had the last year and a half or so (in general, obviously he's had stretches where he's hit really well) combined with the peripherals that have been mentioned a few times with stuff like the in-zone chase rate, I feel much worse than I did at this time in 2021 about him being a true plus bat. I don't think he's worse than 50 or anything, but given the rest of the tools I'm not sure that is good enough for him to be a regular. I could just be overreacting, but if there's a team that will treat him like a borderline top-100 guy in trade talks, I'd probably capitalize on that. He made some drastic swing changes in the off season, so these new in zone whiffs are certainly the byproduct of that…I’ll give him more time to continue to tweak with them till he gets to the final product before worrying about it. The goal for him should be staying healthy and getting as many at bats as possible. He’s young for his level and has a great makeup. He’ll get a cup of coffee in Worcester by the end of the season and a chance to continue his work with their extensive coaching staff. I'm not sure that your statement about the whiffs being a result of the swing change is correct, I believe this was an issue last year as well but I'm not positive. Either way, the swing change has delivered *better* results from last year so if that's now the problem then I'm not quite sure what the solution is, he can't just keep changing his swing in perpetuity. He is young for the level for sure, I'm not writing him off by any means. But for someone with an extremely disproportionate level of pressure on the bat to carry, there is a concerning level of questions in the bat.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 19, 2023 11:21:05 GMT -5
Someone humble me: David Hamilton for Michael Lorenzen. Who says no? The Tigers hang up and block Chaim's number.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 19, 2023 9:39:31 GMT -5
How reactionary are we allowed to be with him? I mentioned it when I brought up the proposed Giolito trade, but I am genuinely concerned about Yorke right now. I ultimately think he will be a major leaguer to some extent still, but given the struggles he's had the last year and a half or so (in general, obviously he's had stretches where he's hit really well) combined with the peripherals that have been mentioned a few times with stuff like the in-zone chase rate, I feel much worse than I did at this time in 2021 about him being a true plus bat. I don't think he's worse than 50 or anything, but given the rest of the tools I'm not sure that is good enough for him to be a regular. I could just be overreacting, but if there's a team that will treat him like a borderline top-100 guy in trade talks, I'd probably capitalize on that. I think it is certainly fair to be concerned on Yorke, I know I am for many of the reasons you point out. He'd be a guy I wouldn't be terribly upset if they traded him to be honest but I wouldn't give him away that's for sure. Theoretically though I would have him as one of the more expendable prospects who likely holds decent value. Story probably isn't going anywhere and Mayer and Yorke are presumably on a similar timeline to the majors and Mayer is certainly considered a better prospect which would seemingly make him expendable. Not to mention they have Romero, Bonaci, Meidroth in the top 15. Oh I'm certainly not ready to dump him for scraps, that's for sure, that's why I included the fringe top-100 caveat. Unfortunately other teams have access to his chase rates so maybe they'll be scared off for the same reasons I am, but I could see a team willing to take a swing on what is still a good amount of upside in the bat.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 19, 2023 9:38:03 GMT -5
Taking a step back... shouldn't the draft itself influence the way they rank the draftees? Like, there are obviously considerations with bonus demands and things like that. But the difference between the 10th and 12th prospect in their pre-draft rankings was probably negligible, enough that getting evidence that several teams preferred one would change the order. As an immediate example, we have Valdez 10th and Bonaci 12th in our organization rankings. If we got evidence that a half-dozen teams preferred Bonaci when they had the choice, I'd probably swap them without really altering particularly about how I feel about either player. There just tend to be groupings of players that are separated so marginally that any nudge for one will swap them. I think, in the absence of having MiLB performance, this is a pretty fair way of handling it. I don't think it's a coincidence that all of those players were drafted ahead of Teel. The only guys that were picked ahead of Teel that didn't crack the list were Schanuel (fairly obvious) and Mitchell (sure). I think Teel would probably be in their top 105 if they extended it to that. I'm not super worried about it, if he hits in Salem and looks good behind the plate he'll be on the list.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 19, 2023 9:34:35 GMT -5
Story doesn't want to jump between SS and 2B depending on if Yu Chang, or Christian Arroyo, or Enmanuel Valdez, or Pablo Reyes, or David Hamilton is in the middle infield with him. He's gonna play SS until they have another legitimate every day player at SS. I think I'd still rather just play Chang at short most of the time and bite the bullet every so often with Reyes or Arroyo on rest days but this is definitely the best argument for how they're planning on doing it, especially if they view Valdez as someone who may come back up to contribute soon (wouldn't hate that, actually).
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 19, 2023 9:31:57 GMT -5
Nick Yorke .263/.294/.411 June .214/.244/.333 July How reactionary are we allowed to be with him? I mentioned it when I brought up the proposed Giolito trade, but I am genuinely concerned about Yorke right now. I ultimately think he will be a major leaguer to some extent still, but given the struggles he's had the last year and a half or so (in general, obviously he's had stretches where he's hit really well) combined with the peripherals that have been mentioned a few times with stuff like the in-zone chase rate, I feel much worse than I did at this time in 2021 about him being a true plus bat. I don't think he's worse than 50 or anything, but given the rest of the tools I'm not sure that is good enough for him to be a regular. I could just be overreacting, but if there's a team that will treat him like a borderline top-100 guy in trade talks, I'd probably capitalize on that.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 19, 2023 9:12:39 GMT -5
I absolutely believe in this team. Itâs killing me I exactly know what they need . Itâs not the too hard either. Itâs the wait killing me. I good starter. Fix SS AND 2B. My lord. If they do this some day this season. Who knows how far will go. I mean there waiting for Story. You get that kids bat I donât expect him to play SS. his body wonât last there maybe a game or two. SS is. Huge position. A nice 2b now you have a good double play combo. I know what I would do. When they are ready. But not beating a dead horse. I did not see any other good ideas. Weâll see I guess. I tell you the spell check sucks . It sucks writing down ideas and you look it types some stupid words that donât make any sense. You base this off of what? Story is starting his rehab assignment this week and we've learned he's going to pretty much alternate between DH and SS to start. If the doctors believe his elbow can handle playing SS I don't see what reason we as fans should have to doubt the doctors who did his surgery. I'm not saying there is no risk since nothing is guaranteed but all signs point to him being the starting SS sometime in August which should really help bolster the SS position for the team. All he he has to do is field the position well and hit mediocre and it's a big upgrade over what we've seen this year. I am with you in that I don't agree with the sentiment that Story's body won't last at short, I think if anything second base might actually be a little more wear and tear on the body given you're going to be involved in more actions at second (I think? No idea if this is true), but I do think it's pretty weird that they're penning Story back in there. If you assume that the Sox don't have any good offensive options between Chang, Arroyo, Kiké, and Reyes, the way you maximize value out of playing one of those guys is Chang's defense at short. So even if Story can handle it, you're going to have an offensive liability at one of the middle infield spots either way, so not taking the opportunity to maximize defensive value seems like a mistake to me. But of course this could all change drastically at the deadline.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 19, 2023 8:43:24 GMT -5
Leverage. If he’s one of the best he’s ever seen he’s going to want to get paid like it. What do you mean? Red Sox have a maximum amount they can pay with the cap. Call has a minimum amount he’d sign for. If they they overlap, they should reach a deal and negotiation will determine the exact number in that range. If the Red Sox comment affects Call’s perception of his own value, then no deal will occur, but Call’s own value is more likely pretty well set from years of comments from coaches, advisors, scouts, etc. Also worth noting, as the SP staff and national media have mentioned many times in the past, the frameworks for these deals or at least the general ballpark for where these kids would sign are largely established before the pick is in, so the Red Sox would've had a good idea of Call's number before those comments (which, again, are not going to have a substantial effect on the negotiations) were made.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 18, 2023 20:47:32 GMT -5
Leverage. If he’s one of the best he’s ever seen he’s going to want to get paid like it. What do you mean? You're overthinking it. “That kid we just drafted? Yeah honestly he kinda sucks.”
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 18, 2023 18:47:27 GMT -5
Then we won’t get any sort of clarity on whether Call is feasible or not til next week, given Zanatello/Anderson are what determine that Is their any chance at this point? I don’t think it helps our scouting director came out saying he’s one of the best defensive HS SS he’s ever seen. I think there’s still a chance, Anderson’s bonus could be anywhere on a pretty wide scale, though not sure how Pearson’s comments affect anything.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 18, 2023 18:02:32 GMT -5
On Chris Cotillo's podcast, Zanetello says he's traveling back up to Boston on Friday and signing on Saturday. I imagine that will be the same for Teel and Anderson and that they'll do the pre-game BP and media availability then, too. Then we won’t get any sort of clarity on whether Call is feasible or not til next week, given Zanatello/Anderson are what determine that
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 18, 2023 13:23:37 GMT -5
Updated predictions for the 2023 signing season. Not feeling as confident on Call as I was six hours ago. I probably have moved to "he's more likely to not sign" but it still would not be crazy. Will keep hope alive and leave him in this version. On the others, wouldn't be blown away if Zanetello was $2.1 million or $2.7 million. Also not sure on Anderson. Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus 1. Kyle Teel $4,200,000 - reported to already have an underslot deal 2. Nazzan Zanetello $2,300,000 - overslot deal, amount unclear, already in FTM 3. Antonio Anderson $1,800,000 - overslot deal, amount unclear, already in FTM 4. Matt Duffy $500,000 - reported to already have a slightly underslot deal, in FTM 4. Kristian Campbell $492,700 - should be signing this week if not already signed 4. Justin Riemer $200,000 5. Connelly Early $408,500 (signed) 6. CJ Weims $50,000 (signed) 7. Caden Rose $150,000 (signed) 8. Trennor O'Donnell $50,000 (signed) 9. Blake Wehunt $100,000 (signed) 10. Ryan Ammons $50,000 (signed) After 10th round, above $150K15. Phoenix Call $600,000 ($450k counts against the cap) - closest "call" After 10th round, possible $150K or less signs (count $0 towards cap)11. Nelly Taylor 12. Max Carlson 13. Cade Feeney (signed for $150k) 14. Jojo Ingrassia - Fullerton's twitter feed has a graphic saying Ingrasia is "Boston Bound", may or may not mean something 16. Isaac Stebens 18. Zach Fogell - expected to sign this week 19. Stanley Tucker - blogger reported that Tucker stated that he intends to sign Total spent towards cap using these projections: $10,751,200 Red Sox Cap: $10,295,100 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $10,809,855 Super wicked early projected not to sign17. Dylan Schlaegel 20. Robert Orloski - seems unlikely to sign; possible insurance in case something else goes sideways What makes me feel better about these updated projections is that I think the Zanatello/Anderson bonuses are more closely in line with what I'd personally expect and so if they can scramble $450K to throw at Call, and really it looks like they'd even have another $50K on top of that going unused, then I think at least one of the three high school kids would take that number.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 18, 2023 11:11:22 GMT -5
My thing with Anderson is that, at the very worst case, he's better than Kiké, because literally anybody would be better than Kiké. But the middle-high outcome in my opinion is that one of the steadiest hitters in the game the past few years gets right in a non-abysmal team context and stops hitting the ball on the ground as much. It would not take a lot for him to represent a significant upgrade at shortstop, and the financial commitment is not insane. I don't see anything extremely glaring in his batted ball data that would lead me to believe he's absolutely washed at 30, so if you can take that kind of buy low in addition to upgrading the rotation, I think that's a worthwhile gamble.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 18, 2023 11:02:08 GMT -5
Connelly Early signed for slot, per Cotillo. It will depend on what Teel/Zanetello/Anderson sign for, but not seeing the $$ for those day 3 HS'ers. Yeah I think Mike's projections on Zanatello/Anderson might be a tad high but this kinda kills all my confidence for Call. I love Early though so I get it.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 18, 2023 10:40:46 GMT -5
Wonder if they'll announce any UDFA signings with this first wave that seems to be coming through today. Currently one of five teams to not have signed any so far.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 18, 2023 10:30:59 GMT -5
Chad Jennings did a piece with Jim Bowden on The Athletic about some possible trade scenarios: theathletic.com/4695143/2023/07/18/red-sox-trade-deadline-scenarios/I'm not super sold on the "all-in" approach, but Yorke/Wikelman/Ryan Fernandez for Giolito and Tim Anderson (assuming you believe he's a buy low candidate right now) seems like a pretty palatable price. If you assume, as I'm willing to, that Anderson would benefit from a change of scenery, he is kind of a perfect stopgap at shortstop until Mayer is ready. I also am pretty concerned about Yorke as a prospect at this point and think Wikelman is ultimately a reliever, so while I'm excited for him and Fernandez as electric arms that I think will both be MLB players, I would do that deal in a heartbeat. The other deals I could take or leave. I'd trade Kiké for just about anything at this point so I'd do that deal, but that's probably just about it. I don't think either of the "strategic sell" options make sense, you could get more for Duvall and I'm not trading Paxton while the team is playing this well. Also worth noting that this should come with the usual Jim Bowden grain of salt.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 18, 2023 9:01:26 GMT -5
Fits what I prefer in a developmental guy in this range in that he's a good athlete (multi-sport guy in high school) and he came from a program that realistically isn't a development powerhouse (as opposed to guys who come out of, say, Wake Forest, who have probably come closer to maximizing their training - especially when you consider ND weather). Definitely on the small side, but someone I wouldn't be surprised to see make a jump in a year. Probably my favorite pick amongst 4-year college players after round 5, which I know is semi-specific but is not arbitrary (Stebens and Tucker are up there as well).
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 17, 2023 22:09:33 GMT -5
Since we are doing the IG stalking Anderson is in Fort Myers per his account. On Friday Anderson was Fenway then his next post was him at the jewelry story I was SURE we signed him i’m confused why it isn’t being announced yet. He was in town for a physical, probably still just working through the bonus specifics and getting their ducks in a row with the under slot guys so they can make it all official at once. As Chris and others have noted, this is exactly how it played out last year. Most likely gonna get a wave of signings in the next couple days.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 17, 2023 16:01:56 GMT -5
Genuine question - is that what people in Boston want? Not a New Englander, so my Fenway experience is limited to the two times I've been, but I'd have figured that most local fans would want to keep the traditional elements intact as much as possible and avoid modernity. Actually I was just talking with a coworker today about that after he visited and took the tour (did not know Fenway had a garden). I live in Boston and I am in favor of it. I’m not huge into the shopping and I don’t drink either but I enjoy spending a Friday night down by Fenway in the off season or when they’re on the road. The more stuff going on down there the more viable that is. Reportedly this will include some fun markets and cultural events and I believe it. They put an ice rink there in the off season and thats a great thing for us city people. I’m definitely strongly in favor of making the area more pedestrian and more closed off to traffic. I am going to miss the Regal cinemas as it was by far the best movie theater option around here IMO. I heard rumors its going to be made into a roller rink and lazer tag which would be great for young families at least. Im also kinda sad that the Bed Bath and Beyond is gone lol. Oh what they’re doing now seems great I was more talking about renovations to Fenway itself I feel like people may be a little more particular about. I don’t see many people opposing a greater level of attraction to the surrounding area (outside of some maybe justified gentrification concerns).
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 17, 2023 15:30:07 GMT -5
Unfortunately does not include an additional 10,000 more seats or a retractable roof for the ballyard itself. Genuine question - is that what people in Boston want? Not a New Englander, so my Fenway experience is limited to the two times I've been, but I'd have figured that most local fans would want to keep the traditional elements intact as much as possible and avoid modernity. Actually I was just talking with a coworker today about that after he visited and took the tour (did not know Fenway had a garden).
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 17, 2023 13:18:20 GMT -5
I'm going to need Phoenix Call to be much more active on social media so I can read too far into cryptic interactions
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 17, 2023 11:45:27 GMT -5
It's never too early to mock the Red Sox a California high school shortstop! futurestarsseries.com/2024-mlb-draft-mock-draft-1-0-vance-honeycutt-jac-caglianone/"15. Bryce Rainer, SS — Harvard-Westlake Square in the middle of the pack, the Red Sox currently hold the no. 15 overall pick in the draft were the season to end today. Boston veered away from it’s California high school tendencies in 2023 selecting Kyle Teel in round one. With Rainer on the board here, it seems like a match made in heaven. He’d join Nick Yorke and Mikey Romero as California prep shortstops taken in the first round by Chaim Bloom and Paul Toboni." Initial takeaways from this mock: 1. Tons of pitching, though given that most of the players listed here are more well-established college players you'll certainly see a lot of the college arms start to settle in at the tail end of the first/comp rounds/early second where I feel like there's always a little run. Still, a ton of quality arms should be available. 2. Jac Caglianone is 11th in this mock draft as opposed to being in the top 5 in another that I'd seen somewhere else (though I think it was from BR, which is not all that valuable), which I think is probably closer to being correct for him. I think he's a teensy bit overrated as a pro prospect right now because I think there's a tendency to hype up guys that are two-way players for being good at two things where they may not be great at one and are unlikely to continue to pursue both. Obviously Jac has a ton of tools on both sides but there's some pretty serious approach/swing and miss concerns and he is a first baseman, and on the mound he'll have to develop either a third pitch or some command to be a high-end starter prospect, in my opinion. 3. Pretty sure this fanbase would riot if Mike Sirota was on the board in a spot that is justified, yet wasn't the pick. I personally don't care as I'm not from New England, but it would be pretty funny to see the reaction on some of the messier comment sections lol. 5 of the top 11 are 1B. Have we ever seen that before? I think that's just a product of how early the mock is - Most of the guys in that mock are there because they have high-level track records and those four college "first basemen" (I think White and Condon have a shot to play other positions) have all absolutely raked in seasons past. Once guys at premium positions pop up I'd imagine they'll slide a bit, but I do think it does look to be a remarkably strong class for those types of bats at the top, at least early on.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 17, 2023 11:27:43 GMT -5
It's never too early to mock the Red Sox a California high school shortstop! futurestarsseries.com/2024-mlb-draft-mock-draft-1-0-vance-honeycutt-jac-caglianone/"15. Bryce Rainer, SS — Harvard-Westlake Square in the middle of the pack, the Red Sox currently hold the no. 15 overall pick in the draft were the season to end today. Boston veered away from it’s California high school tendencies in 2023 selecting Kyle Teel in round one. With Rainer on the board here, it seems like a match made in heaven. He’d join Nick Yorke and Mikey Romero as California prep shortstops taken in the first round by Chaim Bloom and Paul Toboni." Initial takeaways from this mock: 1. Tons of pitching, though given that most of the players listed here are more well-established college players you'll certainly see a lot of the college arms start to settle in at the tail end of the first/comp rounds/early second where I feel like there's always a little run. Still, a ton of quality arms should be available. 2. Jac Caglianone is 11th in this mock draft as opposed to being in the top 5 in another that I'd seen somewhere else (though I think it was from BR, which is not all that valuable), which I think is probably closer to being correct for him. I think he's a teensy bit overrated as a pro prospect right now because I think there's a tendency to hype up guys that are two-way players for being good at two things where they may not be great at one and are unlikely to continue to pursue both. Obviously Jac has a ton of tools on both sides but there's some pretty serious approach/swing and miss concerns and he is a first baseman, and on the mound he'll have to develop either a third pitch or some command to be a high-end starter prospect, in my opinion. 3. Pretty sure this fanbase would riot if Mike Sirota was on the board in a spot that is justified, yet wasn't the pick. I personally don't care as I'm not from New England, but it would be pretty funny to see the reaction on some of the messier comment sections lol.
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