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Post by jchang on Aug 5, 2014 8:45:14 GMT -5
I really don't think narrowly looking at Owens walk rate is a meaningful metric. looking at broader stats, he is clearly pitching to contact as he said in one of his interviews, (even if batters persist in striking out) rather than having better control. (I never had an issue with this control) year BB/9 K/9 ERA WHIP BA OBP SLG 2013 4.53 11.20 2.67 1.19 .177 .292 .274 2014*3.50 9.37 2.60 1.15 .201 .282 .305 *20 games in AA I think his L/R splits are much more interesting year L/R BB/9 K/9 WHIP BA OBP SLG 2013 v L 7.30 10.22 1.65 .203 .365 .338 2013 v R 3.49 11.57 1.02 .167 .260 .249 2014 v L 2.70 9.18 1.20 .216 .290 .312 2014 v R 3.80 9.44 1.13 .196 .279 .303 The much bigger deal is that Owens is now (much) above average against both L&R.
So Owens is not just pitching to contact (lower SO & lower BB) but also now has a good arsenal against lefties. It is worth noting that lefties were never particularly good in hitting Owens, it just that they used to be able to draw walks.
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Post by jchang on Aug 4, 2014 8:42:45 GMT -5
we could say that Rivero had a poor BB/K ratio, but there are times you have to disregard this stat
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Post by jchang on Aug 2, 2014 15:45:53 GMT -5
we completely changed our outfield from last night to today? excluding the late sub Holt, Betts, Craig Cespedes, Bradley, Nava
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Post by jchang on Jul 29, 2014 16:15:37 GMT -5
Not just rings, but 0.59 era, 15.2 IP in WS games pay up! Joe McDonald ?@espnjoeymac 4m The likelihood the Red Sox trade Lester is becoming more of a possibility, because the demand for his services has skyrocketed, per source. Those are proven services, we might add. He's got the rings to back it up. It may be an unlikely scenario, but Lester being sent to a contender where he make his bones again, garnering the Sox some real value, and then being brought back on a market contract is certainly an appealing one. Wishcasting, but it's interesting to contemplate.
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Post by jchang on Jul 29, 2014 9:58:36 GMT -5
the GCL stats page has Devers with 8 E in 19 games
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Post by jchang on Jul 28, 2014 16:10:57 GMT -5
Lester rises for big games. 15.1 IP in 2 WS games, 0.59 ERA, put that your FG calculator. Give us 2 top prospects or be bridesmaid one more year!
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Post by jchang on Jul 28, 2014 10:44:37 GMT -5
I would give thought to letting one or two of the guys in their last option year to keep an extra guy just becoming Rule 5 eligible.
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Post by jchang on Jul 28, 2014 10:25:11 GMT -5
I don't think TS and ST are comparable at all. TS was scouted from the beginning as having average bat speed that would get tested at the upper levels. His great stats in A and A+ did not get him into the top 20, and after sub-par 2012 and 13 in AA, he might have dropped out of the top 60. Even now with his great year, his ceiling is still 5, average MLB player, perhaps a 2nd div starter. ST started out rated at 20 and has a ceiling grade of 7.
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Post by jchang on Jul 28, 2014 9:59:58 GMT -5
There are way too many unwritten rules in baseball. I'm a big papi fan and I will admit sometimes I think he is a little too vocal, but taking an extra 6 seconds around the bases is a whole different animal than throwing at someone. One action is showboating the other is an attack on a player. Really the al needs a fighting rule like in hockey. You hit a batter intentionally when you don't bat, the batter could come out and fight you. Did papi take an extra 6 sec to round the bases? I did not notice much difference in his base running speed between the HR shot and a ball in play.
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Post by jchang on Jul 28, 2014 9:24:02 GMT -5
Owens L/R splits this year are actually improved, with the impact in OBP. This year he is better than average against both L and R, where as last year he was below average in OBP against L (while unreal against R)
2014 (125 PA v L, 344 PA v R v L .226 / .288 / .330 v R .186 / .270 / .283
2013 (160 PA v L and 386 PA v R v L .203 / .365 / .338 v R .167 / .260 / .249
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Post by jchang on Jul 28, 2014 6:31:55 GMT -5
I think it is a seriously bad approach to dismiss any prospect who does not project to be great, presumably all-star or perhaps grade 6.5 and above. Of the newly released MLB Top 100, only 4 have grade 7+, 18 6.5+, 39 6+, and that (mostly) comprises draft classes 2010-2013. Only two members of the 2013 draft are in the top 20(?) and the top two members of 14 are #24 & 27. For every All-Star or better, there are 14 other players on 25-man and 24 players on the 40-man rosters. Getting two players good enough to make the 25-man roster is good plus a few more guys who can hang around AAA is a reasonable success. Few prospects get a grade 6+ at draft time, it is more likely prospects rise up to grade 6.
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Post by jchang on Jul 23, 2014 14:05:23 GMT -5
If Owens has not been able to be effective, then perhaps the rest of EL pitchers who have been less effective than Owens should be sent down to low A to learn how to pitch. We should sent the EL hitters downs as well since they cannot hit an ineffective pitcher.
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Post by jchang on Jul 23, 2014 9:52:39 GMT -5
I suppose if one were to define 1 & 2 (starting) pitchers as special, then 3, 4, 5 SP's are not special. If OK is the category below special, then our pitching prospects are OK. We should think in terms of filling out the roster. A free-agent 3 SP goes for around $15M/yr, perhaps 10M for a 4 and 5M for a 5. So if the system can produce a 3, 4, 5 SP every 3-4 years, that would be 30M/yr of FA salaries saved, more than enough to get a 1/2 SP. Sure it would be nice to have a 1/2 SP prospect, but in terms of filling out a roster under the salary cap, its the same.
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Post by jchang on Jul 22, 2014 19:55:23 GMT -5
Owens just turned 21 before AA. Fossil was 23 plus a few month. Owens AA Era is better. It looks like fossil was brought up too soon. But I do not recollect his games.
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Post by jchang on Jul 21, 2014 20:29:56 GMT -5
Holt is a better outfielder than infielder. It is pretty amazing that he never spent anytime in the outfield before. Mookie looked a bit lost out there and Holt looks like he has played it for years. we had to take hanahran's salary to get holt. thornton in relief throwing 97. But Texas Can Hit 97 fbs meant to quot gbb.
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Post by jchang on Jul 21, 2014 17:16:43 GMT -5
I was sseriously dissappointed that Mike was ranked at 55 when he was returned to us, then just stunned that he was dropped from the top 60. I think Mikle is showing that he warrants a decent rank
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Post by jchang on Jul 20, 2014 14:16:44 GMT -5
On watching ventura, I don't know why people say Owens has control issues.
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Post by jchang on Jul 20, 2014 10:48:55 GMT -5
My assumption is that prospect rank is based on best estimate where we think he will become, irrespective of floor or ceiling, while value factors in probability that he will reach the estimate along with floor and ceiling. Trade value could also factor how close the prospect is to being MLB ready to meet a specific need.
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Post by jchang on Jul 20, 2014 10:37:15 GMT -5
so the trick is to have a spouse/significant other and children who likes to 1) scout prospects, 2) analyze stats or 3) design websites. I do not think it is worth the effort to have people get together to rank prospects numerically beyond the top 20 because of the hair splitting aspect. I think grades for the 3+ is fine, but I would prefer half grades like MLB does. That said, I also think it is important to track more than 60-75 prospects plus the post prospects. There is the stats page, but perhaps Eric could be granted his own page on this site with additional stats of the nature that he has been posting, factoring in age advancement etc.
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Post by jchang on Jul 19, 2014 19:19:42 GMT -5
Gonna be tough for Owens with the long breaks between frames.
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Post by jchang on Jul 13, 2014 18:57:02 GMT -5
I would rather have 2-3 WS and endure 2011 melt down, 12, and this year over being perpetual bridesmaids.
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Post by jchang on Jul 13, 2014 17:16:00 GMT -5
Can holt make all star as a utility player? I say we keep him.
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Post by jchang on Jul 9, 2014 18:26:34 GMT -5
Its time to put Almanzar back on the rankings. I would like to see him at 20, but would agree with 21-25.
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Post by jchang on Jun 23, 2014 13:58:35 GMT -5
Owens line in 2013 AA was a bit unusual compared to the whole year
2013 AA K% BB%% HRC BABIP L 35.6% 15.6% 9.1% .200 R 37.5% 10.0% 2.5% .282 there were 38 PA against L in AA 2013, and 80 PA against R
without looking at the more recent games, his 2014 BB rate against lefties is much improved.
2014 K% BB%% HRC BABIP L 23.4% 9.6% 1.6% .279 R 27.3% 10.6% 1.3% .227 this is over PA 94 L and 245 R
below is all of 2013
2013 K% BB%% HRC BABIP L 24.9% 17.8% 4.4% .264 R 32.6% 9.8% 2.3% .246
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Post by jchang on Jun 10, 2014 21:50:04 GMT -5
When should we start treating Brian Johnson as a legit starting pitching prospect? He is chewing up the EL. the grade 4 prospects should be considered legit, as they project to be on the 25-man roster, versus the grade 3, who are expected to be up and down guys. But I am thinking he should be grade 5, not 4, projecting to be a 5 starter, with perhaps a ceiling of 4. Johnson also has good stats against both L and R, which helps in being a starter
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