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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 22, 2023 13:06:13 GMT -5
I've had the same thoughts at 2:00am when I haven't picked up anyone at the bar yet. oh....my twenties. I wonder what Breslow and Co. think of Snell. I figure they either are bearish on him compared to other options, or if they think they can tinker with something and get those walk rates down. Here I am.....talking myself into Snell.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 22, 2023 10:23:30 GMT -5
George never had to live in an era with luxury tax thresholds and the penalties that one incurs for going over. He also didn't have ownership groups who could match his spending like the Mets and Dodgers of today.
In some parallel universe, people may know how he would have actually run a team in todays world.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 22, 2023 9:57:15 GMT -5
Dodgers can still spend more and be able to reset in 2025 if they wanted to.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 22, 2023 9:55:49 GMT -5
CBT penalties have continued to increase over the years because of overspending by certain teams. I can envision the Dodgers spending leading to another round of CBT penalties that punish the Red Sox when their next young core reaches extension time. Fair enough but also in 6 years the only person they'll have any money committed to is Rafi Devers so them having a relatively clean long term payroll outlook as of this moment leads me to believe that even with stiffer CBT penalties (which I agree is likely to happen) the Sox will be just fine. If I was a betting man, I would think it's a good bet that changes are coming in the next CBA centered around stiffer penalties for exceeding the Luxury tax threshold AND potentially close up loop holes on deffered money lowering AAV. With the former, I'd imagine it comes with a higher luxury tax threshold. Yes, we are going to penalize you more....but the threshold for which we do so is going up.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 22, 2023 8:24:20 GMT -5
I'd be fine with Montgomery/Giolito and a trade for a RHH second baseman (Polanco/Kim/Drury type). But I'm not getting my hopes up. I could even get behind an Imanaga and Giolito combo. Anxious to see what Bailey can do to improve things in house as well. I see a lot of posters bring up Gausman and he turned him back around in SF. He had an ERA approaching 6.00 the year before. I'm not sure how I feel about Imanaga, although admitedly I haven't been following his as closely as Yama up until now. But I thought I read he projects to be more of a #4 type pitcher, and I feel we have plenty of those, yes we need innings but we really needed a guy or two at the top of the rotation.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 22, 2023 8:16:58 GMT -5
This is pure conjecture, but it feels that Yamamoto to LA opposed to Yamamoto to NYY makes it easier on us to land Montgomery. I think LA would have gone hard after him if the Yankees signed Yamamoto. The Yankees could have hung their hats on letting Cole opt out and replacing a mid 30's ACE with a guy at the begining of his prime. They do this because they have more of a chance of resigning Soto, because I don't know how they resign Soto, pay Cole and bring in another elite pitcher and not go over the threshold for a 4th year.
The problem is, pretty much every other team looking for high end talent is going to be in on Montgomery, and his price tag, while not as high as Yamamotos is probably going to go up because he will be in more teams price range. I don't have any faith in this front office winning any kind of bidding war.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 22, 2023 8:01:43 GMT -5
I'd be fine with Montgomery/Giolito and a trade for a RHH second baseman (Polanco/Kim/Drury type). But I'm not getting my hopes up.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 21, 2023 23:34:50 GMT -5
At least now….I can sleep.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 21, 2023 21:27:42 GMT -5
Is everyone else’s brain on a pendulum of “all signs point towards us swooping in and signing Yamamoto” and “Henry and co. Will fold, it’s between NY and LA”? Because mine certainly is.
Let’s just hope the reports that he will come to a decision tomorrow are true and then we can put this all behind us and move on with our lives. Then we can start the discussion on…
A. We got Yama!!!, he’s going to be an ACE. Let’s get another pitcher and a RHH 2nd Baseman. Full throttle!!!
Or
B.) pffft, he’s probably not going to be much better than a #2 for a few years and then he will fall apart. He’s short and those guys don’t age well. That contract is going to look horrible in a few years
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 21, 2023 20:59:38 GMT -5
I keep on seeing over and over again how it’s the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees bidding now.
There isn’t any real smoke between Boston and Yamamoto. However, on the other hand, unlike SF we also haven’t been told we are out of it.
The side of me that’s hopeful is telling me this. If the Sox interest, and reported willingness to get uncomfortable is for real, and they haven’t been excluded yet, they could just be looking to pounce last. This would fit their recent trend of working in the shadows and keeping a tight lid on things.
Also, the lack of smoke in Bostons corner, and all the talk between Yamamoto to LA/NY could really just be those teams having more leaks than Boston. Which isn’t too unbelievable
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 21, 2023 20:35:46 GMT -5
I have this sick feeling in my gut he’s going to the Yankees. If the Giants have legit been out it feels like a decision is coming soon. If he’s eliminating teams he has to have a pretty good ideal where he’s signing if he doesn’t already know. We’ve been through it before when A-Rod went to the MFY, that turned out just fine Fair, but we had more star power back then and an ownership group that felt more committed to building a winner. Same group now, I know, I’m probably just being cynical I know, I should probably withhold judgement until the offseason is over.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 21, 2023 20:08:42 GMT -5
I have this sick feeling in my gut he’s going to the Yankees.
If the Giants have legit been out it feels like a decision is coming soon. If he’s eliminating teams he has to have a pretty good ideal where he’s signing if he doesn’t already know.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 20, 2023 16:40:15 GMT -5
Taking Adrian Houser to the Mets as a sign that they’re dumpster diving. Nothing anyone says can convince me that Yamamoto isn’t Boston bound now. It's not like the Mets rotation is 5 deep, they have guys who they can plug and eat innings but after Senga who do they really have? Megill, QUintana, and Peterson aren't exactly lighting the world on fire. It's the Mets too, I think they're still in on him. I wish you were right, and it still ain't over yet so we shall see, soon hopefully.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 20, 2023 14:01:40 GMT -5
Do the Yankees even have that much money to spend on another $300 million player? Absolutely. But if they don’t want to go over the luxury tax threshold for a 4th year in 2025 I don’t know if they can sign Yamamoto unless they plan on letting Soto walk.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 20, 2023 8:45:26 GMT -5
Have the Red Sox ever made a big time signing, or even a trade, where it was leaked, speculated, and hyped up weeks leading in?
I'm not trying to talk anyone into thinking he's coming here, nor do I think it's a slam dunk. Sox seem better than most at operating in the shadows.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 19, 2023 17:43:08 GMT -5
I’m increasingly starting to imagine that we will not have a decision before Christmas.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 19, 2023 10:12:24 GMT -5
I don't really get why anyone would think the Sox have no chance when they're offering $300 million to a guy that spreadsheets are going to say is worth a lot less than that and their competition is paying 100% taxes on every dollar they spend This, The Mets certainly are paying 100% taxes, the Yankees will be, and they will be faced with the 2025 decision of going over the luxury tax threshold for a 4th year in a row. Signing Yama pretty much means they can't extend Soto OR they will start to Steve Cohen it and just say "f** the luxury tax limit" Dodgers would be there too, but they hypothetically could still be in a position to reset in 2025 with Ohtani (hopefully) coming back to the rotation as well. If money is the ultimate factor, and the world is rational, then hypothetically our competition should be LAD/SFG/PHIL. But somehow the New York teams are apparently in there. In the end, who knows. One of the teams that we are hearing are in it, might not really be that in it. I just hope that team isn't us.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 18, 2023 15:52:32 GMT -5
I think we have smart posters here and we all understand this, people just get frustrated. I get it.
However, when people in the media do it, it really rubs me the wrong way. Like, you want him to make a decision so you can write a story about it??? come on maaaaan.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 18, 2023 15:24:34 GMT -5
No sense in getting mad at Yamamoto for not signing when guys like Montgomery or Snell are still out there unsigned as well. It’s not his fault teams/players are waiting on him.
Still lots of FA left, Yama has just as much of a right as they do to make a decision.
At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter when, we just want to know for our own selfish reasons.
I get it, I’m losing work productivity over here on this. But that’s on me.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 17, 2023 17:07:14 GMT -5
With respect to opt outs. It’s not an argument, it’s a semantics battle.
When said player is signed, having an opt out is 100% player friendly. Sure, there are permutations of the future where the contract benefits the team e.g. let’s say Yamamoto plays his balls off for 4 years, opts out, signs another ten year deal, and turns into a dud after a few years. That’s circumstantial, at time = 0 the opt out is player friendly. Every single time.
This is semantics, but it’s an argument I myself have made. That if the opt out gets the player to sign with you that’s it’s beneficial to you. I mean, if Yamamoto is a stud, then having Yamamoto signing with your with an opt out is more valuable than Yamamoto not signing with you.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 16, 2023 17:16:17 GMT -5
Jordan Montgomery on the phone tomorrow
“Oh nice to hear from you, wasn’t expecting a call”
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 16, 2023 13:01:42 GMT -5
That would imply massive deferrals, a la Ohtani, and I don't think we're likely to see that again. The reason that worked for Ohtani was that he makes a bajillion dollars a year in endorsements, which Yamamoto can't count on in the same way. Yeah I did not do the math on what the deferrals would need to be in that scenario, that makes sense. Forgetting the CBT part then I think the headline will be the biggest pitcher contract ever, but the actual effective $ probably won’t be. After Ohtani’s deal I’d be surprised if Yamamoto doesn’t push for that. Remember Ohtani is making $40 million a year in incentives, so he literally make $20 a year and still be one of the highest paid players in the game. Aaron Judge would be making $6 million a year if he did the same thing. No player can do what Ohtani did, or at least on that scale, it’s an anomaly. I’m not saying there can’t be any deferred money with a Yamamoto contact, but it won’t be anything close to the scale that we saw with Shohei. This contract is going to make a little dent in your AAV, and that’s ok, he might be worth it.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 16, 2023 8:28:04 GMT -5
There’s zero advantage in putting it out to every team in the big leagues that you’re interested or not interested in someone.
This is true whether the Sox sign Yamamoto or not. If he signs in LA, Yamamoto isn’t holding a press conference saying “yeah, I liked Boston, but there weren’t enough new stories out there about how much they wanted me”
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 15, 2023 13:36:14 GMT -5
I don't think the Sox have even come close to signing someone regarded as highly as Yamamoto in the last several years. Ask yourself this. Ohtani just deferred 68 of his 70 mill per year to sign with LA. I guarantee Yamamoto was a big reason. If youre Yamamoto are you going to play with Ohtani, Betts, Freeman. Or do you come to a last place team that has one all star in the field and one in the bullpen. Colder weather and a further flight home. Lets just be honest with ourselves at this point. We got Yoshida by outbidding everyone. Thats the only way were going to get anyone great until we get better. Because players aren't cynical like this. When they look at the whole body of work the Sox franchise has put in the last few decades he's not going to mockingly chuckle "yeah right but we all know John Henry wants to turn this team into TAMPA BAY" not that you said that last part but some fans do. Also, of course we are going to get Yamamoto by outbidding everyone else. THat's how you pretty much get 98% of all free agents; by offering more in either money or years. ADD: Any player the Dodgers sign over the next decade could be a player made possible by the Ohtani deal, you have no evidence they're connected other than the fact that the they're both free agents this year. Also, I could say that the Ohtani contract is evidence the LA actually does care about the luxury tax and will try to reset every 3 years or so. Don't count the Sox out just yet my friend....or at the very least, don't spill my half full cup.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 15, 2023 13:23:20 GMT -5
Because they're settling for the B and C tier guys. Seriously who cares? If I ever make it to KC for a game I'll take a photo of the "better first half of the 2023-24 offseason than the Red Sox" banner. I said just throwing this out there. But with this response I guess youre ok with settling for nothing but a D- pitcher until mid Dec after 2 years of last place and a NEW GM. They took 2 players that we could use very badly. The banner comment was funny but it was just a point. If the Red Sox finished in last place 2 years in a row then maybe we should be signing B and C guys rather then looking for 1 A player every offseason and filling the roster with below avg ML talent with the rest of the $$$. Story, and trash. Didnt work. Yoshida and trash. Didnt work. 1 good pitcher and trash is what im expecting this year. Dont worry I'll remind you later. 😉 I don't think the Sox have even come close to signing someone regarded as highly as Yamamoto in the last several years.
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