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Post by taftreign on Dec 11, 2014 9:45:56 GMT -5
Imagine this is not a 1 for 1 trade. Would think we needed to add one more piece. We shall see soon.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 11, 2014 9:41:48 GMT -5
I've learned to take these tweets/blogs with a grain of salt but I would be shocked if Ben gave up any of those three upside prospects in addition to Rubby and Webster. I comfortable giving the two pitchers but Guerra who's been getting great reviews across the scouting community, Espinoza who they just blew there next two seasons of International budgets on or Rijo (I guess the more palatable option of the three) who looks like he could develop into something close to a league average 2nd baseman crosses my "too much" line. I agree he needs to hold his ground even if it means walking away. Arizona will come to there senses.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 11, 2014 0:47:40 GMT -5
Ok. So now clearly future moves will be Philly trades Utley for prospects and then gets Kendrick back with more prospects from the Dodgers for Cole Hamels and then . . . It's getting absurd or maybe it always was.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 11, 2014 0:33:06 GMT -5
As a prospect sight we have a tendency to overrate prospects' ceilings and undervalue the known commodity. That is undoubtedly what is occurring here. I'm a De La Rosa fan but this deal decreases the risk entering 2015 and increases the likelihood of getting to the playoffs. Your trading the small probability Rubby is anything more than a #4 starter for a guaranteed #4 or #3 starter. That's worth something. In this case Webster and an unnamed minor leaguer.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 10, 2014 23:53:47 GMT -5
Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu, McCarthy and Heaney could be one very nasty rotation.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 10, 2014 22:08:56 GMT -5
So Dodgers are paying Harens salary whether he retires or not and Gordon's full arb salary this season. Free year of service for the Marlins. That's the way to use your finances. The new ineffiency to get better prospects.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 10, 2014 22:00:59 GMT -5
Would have liked to keep De La Rosa for his upside as at worst a late inning reliever.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 10, 2014 21:54:17 GMT -5
So Rosenthal is saying Webster and De La Rosa for Miley.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 10, 2014 21:44:37 GMT -5
MLB Network Radio ?@mlbnetworkradio 23m23 minutes ago .@jim_Duquette heard the #Nationals were working on a deal last night that would "blow the roof off this place, something to keep an eye on" Something involving Seattle? Desmond and Zimmerman for . . . . maybe DJ Peterson, Walker etc.. Isnt random speculation so much fun?
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Post by taftreign on Dec 10, 2014 13:53:31 GMT -5
Well Boras is only meeting with "owners" on Scherzer so is Lucchino close enough to handle this because he's higher up than a GM or does it need to be Henry. Just one thought.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 10, 2014 13:26:53 GMT -5
Jason Stark @jasonst
Add the #SFGiants to the list of teams interested in Cole Hamels, sources say. So all 3 teams that lost out on Lester - SF, Bos, LA - are in.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 10, 2014 13:14:07 GMT -5
So 6 years, $155M, $30M of which is bonus money. Then year 7 is a $25M salary or the $10M buyout. The 10 mil buyout is part of the 155 mil because he is guaranteed the 10 mil no matter what. So really 6 years @ 145 mil plus the 10 mil buyout to achieve the 155 mil or if the option is picked up its 7 years @ 170 mil.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 10, 2014 0:08:46 GMT -5
@gordonedes: This was described to me as a heavyweight fight by someone involved in Lester negotiations. If so, this has to be the 15th round Or maybe it's the 6th round actually. You can imagine the scenario where both Cherrington and Theo built an off season plan with the lynch pin being to sign Lester and neither one really wanting to turn to plan B so they continue this stalwart battle because it really does mean that much to both of them.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 9, 2014 15:14:13 GMT -5
1. Koji - good move but after 2. Melancon- disaster 3. Bailey- disaster 4. Mujica-disaster 5. Allen Webster for Gonzalez and Crawford and Beckett is not a good trade. Is meh at best. The Dodgers love it, we gave Henry extra profit. 6. Victorino- one good season for $26 million is tolerable at best. 1 season for $39 million is a disaster 7. Napoli- great move 8. Lackey for Craig kelly- disaster monumental!!! 9. Lester Negotiation- disaster 10. Lester trade for Cespedes- not a disaster yet, but looking like it. 11. Counting on Bradley middlebrooks etc -disaster 12. Btw he gets no credit for the farm . He drafted none of those players you mentioned, nor was he the director of PD at the time. He was last in charge of the farm/draft in 2005. He was asst GM vp from 2005 I believe till he was promoted.. 13-aj perzinski -disaster 14-rusney Castillo- unknown 15-Ball- highest draft pick in my lifetime and it is near a Brien Taylor disaster 16. Sandoval . Unknown but the money doesn't match up with the production. $20 million for Sandoval is good but it's not good for Ellsbury? If a 750 ops gets you $20 mill, wouldn't it for a guy who is in shape and hits lead off and steals 60 bases, in your town,? Btw I'm not advocating Ellsbury, just there seems to be mixed messages in their actions. 17. Ramirez. Who knows. $22 million if he is healthy and behaves. Big if. 18. Ortiz- resigning him was a great move That is a spotty record, at best Glad I don't go through life with this level of pessimism! Edit: Sorry pedro, just read your comment.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 9, 2014 1:04:03 GMT -5
This would be the second time in two years that we got pantsed by the White Sox. How so? You're saying that the Sox needed Robertson for 4 years and that their failure to sign him to a contract of that length shows their inability to compete with Chicago? Pretty sure he meant Jose Abreau last season and not acquiring Samardzija this season for the price he ultimately went for with the disclaimer that Beane may well have rated whatever the return package is greater than anything the Red Sox were willing to part with. Edit: Or as he said himself above.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 9, 2014 0:00:46 GMT -5
?@chriscotillo
Luke Gregerson likely to get three-year deal, at minimum. Tons of interest, may even get four.
I know he has been mentioned as an alternative bullpen piece to Andrew Miller. If he gets 4 years I wonder what the difference in AAV will be. No way the Sox going to 4 years here either as he is both a year older than Miller and still is likely to draw close to 7 mil per season.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 8, 2014 23:49:30 GMT -5
I haven't been following very closely after the Peavy trade but MLB.com currently has Montas as their 3rd best prospect behind only Rodon and Anderson. Baseball America has him 5th behind Rodon, Anderson, Spencer Adams and Micah Johnson. Great to see him reaching his potential even if its unfortunately not for Boston.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 8, 2014 22:00:35 GMT -5
Jeff Passan @jeffpassan · 1h 1 hour ago Sources: If the White Sox do deal for Jeff Samardzija, return would be Marcus Semien and prospects. A's would slot Semien in at shortstop.
Jeff Passan @jeffpassan · 1h 1 hour ago White Sox reticent to give up high-level prospects because Samardzija under contract for only one year. Anderson, Montas may not be in play.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 4, 2014 16:48:18 GMT -5
At this point I would think we have to wait for Upton to find a landing spot before we can settle on a trade for Cespedes. Upton is the best available bat and the best power bat. Those teams who miss on Upton will be more likely to offer more value for Cespedes as there are few options other than perhaps Gattis or Bruce who may or may not be available. I will sit back until Upton goes and then start watching for Cespedes talks to pick up.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 4, 2014 14:36:34 GMT -5
Jeff Passan @jeffpassan · 40m 40 minutes ago Sources: Clubs being told Chase Headley has a four-year offer for ~$65M. @jonheymancbs says Marlins interested. Unclear if that's the team.
That is already a $16.25 mil AAV. Pablo was to this point less than $3mil difference per year and the gap may close further until all is said and done.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 4, 2014 1:10:08 GMT -5
It really was mind boggling to see Seattle move Saunders. But it was good news for us.I'd definitely add to Cespedes in order to get Iwakuma back. Not so much that he landed in Toronto.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 1, 2014 18:09:08 GMT -5
I don't think that a trade that is universally panned like the Donaldson trade could be fairly used as a barometer for future trades. Granted, I'd love for an elite starter cost to be what Donaldson cost, but I wouldn't want that same "market" when trying to sell one of our OF's. I feel like most GM's would hang up the phone if you try to negotiate with "well Donaldson only cost....." I don't disagree that the Donaldson deal was below the threshold I would have wanted as a GM but considering Hamels is older, costs significantly more, provides less value as measured in WAR and has 3 or 4 times more competition on the market I would say the package Toronto offered would have been a fair offer to Philadelphia. Organizations are valuing top prospects so significantly that it's becoming very unlikely that a team would offer them up in such a deal. Other than the Addison Russell deal which looks like a severe overpay for Samardzija and the Miller for E. Rodriguez deal teams are holding tight. I believe consistently the reported trades seem to be coming in light to expectations. We thought the same on the Price deal. Many feel that way on the Lackey deal. The truth is that when teams are motivated to move a player and they shop him around the best deals are not to the level of years past.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 1, 2014 14:19:57 GMT -5
It's enough to say that hitting is probably way undervalued in WAR/$ and that we should make a killing in selling off our hitters. I guess maybe. But Cruz is a better hitter than Cespedes and Craig. His WAR has been low for his offensive production because he stinks at defense. If the Mariners do the smart thing an eliminate the defense from Cruz's situation entirely then his value will go up even if his skills diminish some. For what it's worth, my personal projection toy has Cruz about 6.4 WAR over the course of the deal, but that's with a nearly useless year four. I have him at just-under-6 WAR over the first three years, which is the sort of upgrade the Mariners need at the position. Like I said, not a good deal, but defensible one. If you are saying Cruz is close to 6 WAR over the next three seasons with his bat alone as a DH and then you consider he is replacing the combined DH production of .190/.266/.301 which I believe equates to a WAR between -2 and -2.5 it is by no stretch a 3.5 to 4.5 WAR improvement next season for Seattle under this pretext which provides more value to the Mariners than most teams, no? So I would agree its defensible for Seattle vs most other clubs to be the high bidder here considering they get both better production from the position (-2.5 WAR to 2 WAR) and they no longer have to employ the salaries of prior candidates such as $6 mil to Hart or the portion of funds they paid Morales this past season. Even if by year 4 he is a 0 or -1 WAR player its more than they got this year from the DH. Granted a 3 year deal was much more desirable but I'm sure he had at least a 3 year deal from Baltimore if not others and I would guess the 4th year is what it took to get him to come to Seattle.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 1, 2014 13:31:43 GMT -5
Buster Olney ? @buster_ESPN Many Rival evaluators find PHI asks on their players to be greatly overpriced within the context of the current market, as they did in July. Along the lines of this remark I was looking at a simple trade value comparison of Hamels to the one just completed for Donaldson. If you look at (per Fangraphs): Donaldson (Age 28Y 11M 23D) 2012 WAR 1.5 2013 WAR 7.7 2014 WAR 6.4 2015 WAR 5.6 per Steamer 2015 Salary: Arb 1 estimate of $4.5 mil 2016 Salary: Arb 2 2017 Salary: Arb 3 2018 Salary: Arb 4 2019 Salary: Free Agent vs Hamels (Age 30Y 11M 4D) - 2 years older 2012 WAR 4.4 2013 WAR 4.1 2014 WAR 3.8 2015 WAR 2.5 per Steamer 2015 Salary: $22.5 mil 2016 Salary: $22.5 mil 2017 Salary: $22.5 mil 2018 Salary: $22.5 mil 2019 Salary: $20.0 mil option or $6.0 mil buyout And then compare the market of available alternatives: Top Starting Pitcher Free Agents: Scherzer Lester Shields Liriano Santana Maeda McCarthy Masterson Plus a number of trade candidates most notably Iwakuma, Cueto, Latos, Leake, Zimmerman, Fister, Porcello, Ross, Cashner etc.. Top Position Player Free Agents: Melky Cabrera Chase Headley Nick Markakis With trade candidates most notably Upton and Cespedes Tell me in what market, particularly one with a reduction in viable hitters, would a commodity of Hamels nature warrant a trade value greater than Brett Lawrie, Franklin Barreto, Kendall Graven and Sean Nolin. The facts would seem to suggest Hamels provides less value than Donaldson and should require a lower purchasing price in regards to players and prospects. Am I missing something here?
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Post by taftreign on Nov 29, 2014 10:31:27 GMT -5
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