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Post by taftreign on Feb 7, 2015 13:13:55 GMT -5
Interesting article directly below the one you referenced on the link "Making sense of Moncada's top 5 suitors" which grades the so-called "Moncada Likelihood" as NY Yankees 9 (assuming it must be a 10 scale here), LA Dodgers 4, Boston 4, San Diego 3, and Detroit 3. I agree that the Yankees would be the betting favorite but I'm surprised at how big a gap this article believes it it. I'd have put LA and Boston more in the 6 to 7 range as if either chooses to go all in on Moncada they have the financial might to go toe to toe or beyond with NYY where as I don't suspect San Diego or Detoit to have that capability.
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Post by taftreign on Feb 6, 2015 11:44:01 GMT -5
Listening to Effectively Wild Podcast Episode 609 with guest Kiley McDaniel talking about Yoan Moncada. A few things I found interesting from his discussion.
He believes the expectation is Moncada will be likely up in the majors at some point in 2016. This was of note to me because I had originally thought 2017 and for the Red Sox to "be competitive" in getting him to the majors they would need a plan to clear a spot for him by next season. What does that look like? A trade? Moving Pablo to 1st next season (Don't believe this was the initial plan when signing Panda)? He is essentially a 2B, 3B, CF type guy. Is the best option to move Hanley to 1B so Moncada can start in LF or start Moncada in RF then later have the option to move him to 3B? Use him as a rotational piece as in a 4th OF/ IF utility player the first season? Does Moncada care where he plays or does he just want to get his free agency clock started sooner?
The second note is Kiley mentioned Moncada as a switch hitter but noted the "knock" on him as a prospect is he is not as good from the right side and may end up giving up switch hitting in the future and hit strictly left side. I found it as a positive that he is better from the left side as this would fit a need of the current Red Sox roster to have another potential strong lefty bat for the lineup.
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Post by taftreign on Jan 22, 2015 14:28:11 GMT -5
It is not unusual for top executives or managers to have a player compensation attached in certain situations including as we know Theo to the Cubs. These players or prospects are generally of little influence or impact at the time of the deal. It seems however the Duquette saga is turning into a different story. Olney is reporting that one name that has come up is Jeff Hoffman last years 1st round pick who fell do to Tommy John after being considered for the top pick in the draft. Apparently Baltimore is looking at filing tampering charges against Toronto and "are willing" to accept a player like Hoffman to settle both this tampering and compensation for Duquette. Interested to see were this one goes.
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Post by taftreign on Jan 19, 2015 20:49:14 GMT -5
A very unique contract indeed. It appears Scherzer will be paid out over at least 20 years...$15 million/year for years 1-14 with half that amount ($105 million) deferred until after year 14, at which point that $105 million will be paid out according to some as yet unreported schedule. To make up for all the deferrals, Scherzer gets a $50 million signing bonus spread out over an again as yet unreported number of years (though I presume the term to be 7 years). So, at the end of the day, Scherzer might end up with something like $14.5 million per year for years 1-7, $7.5 million / year for years 8-14 and $15 million / year for years 15-21. sports.yahoo.com/news/sources--max-scherzer-s-7-year---210-million-deal-with-nats-contains-historic-deferrals-164857543.html"Scherzer will get $15 million a year for the next 14 years, sources said, deferring half the money until after the contract expires. It is by far the largest sum ever deferred in a deal, not quite matching Bobby Bonilla’s 25-year deferral from the Mets in length but more than tripling it in value." I don't see any report stating this money goes beyond 14 years. I take the quote as he is getting 15 mil per year with half the money 105 million coming after the contract expires in year 7. I see it as 105 mil in years 1 - 7 and 105 mil in years 8 - 14 which is again after the contract expires. Perhaps I'm reading incorrectly but I think the quote is being misinterpreted in your scenario.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 19, 2014 13:55:21 GMT -5
Add in that Joel Sherman is tweeting the Yankees are also getting Marlins prospect Domingo German, another young hard thrower.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 19, 2014 12:15:35 GMT -5
Between the catching tandem and ground ball pitchers Boston is looking to control the run game. Not only is it less likely for teams to take the extra base once on but the increased ground balls generated may very well have the Red Sox lead the league in double plays allowing them to erase extra base runners. Especially adding in the use of shifts to maximize this potential. I know there are concerns with Xander at SS but I can easily see this team as the best defensive unit in baseball when you also account for the depth in Victorino/JBJ , Hanigan, Holt etc.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 18, 2014 9:52:11 GMT -5
Why if you believe your rotation is solid enough to be a playoff team now not wait until the trade deadline in which you have lessened the dollar investment on Hamels and collected a half seasons of data on Swihart in AAA along with seeing the development of Owens, Barnes and Rodriguez? Many seem to be more concerned about having a staff front man for the playoff run which means you can defer the decision until later. I suppose if you believe Amaro is going to move him no matter what this offseason it forces your decision but it also forces his hand on what he can get. As for me I'm of the ilk to keep Swihart protected from a Hamels deal. His trajectory as a plus hitter as a C and strong defensive growth make him a rare commodity. I see too many other alternatives still available to move the systems best prospect. Either Shields in FA (Granted perhaps a small step below a Hamels quality) or one of the many final year of their deal starters remain as plausible alternatives.
Short version, NO.
Add: Reading through the Hamels thread I see that some of this has generally been discussed by dcsoxfan.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 17, 2014 0:22:07 GMT -5
Didn't this all happen before it went to an arbitrator (the same as a court ruling) and thus the amount was unknown to buy off Nix? www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24892163/astros-and-nix-a-top-draftee-whose-deal-was-canceled-reach-settlementCan MLB enforce something when the Astros didn't sign him but just paid him a sum to not go to a arbitrator's decision? If he is going back to school as one article stated he wanted to go to a two yr program what is the actual harm that MLB could possibly rule on? Lots of questions here on this case to what the MLB rules actually state. Seems to me he would have to sign the contract for MLB to enforce it wouldn't they? It's not harm to the player at this point (if anything he probably comes out ahead, getting paid twice and only having to wait a year). It's that MLB is going to let the Astros skirt the signing rules when they should have had to honor the contract to Nix, and thus gone over the cap enough to have lost a pick. Well in effect they still paid Nix the agreed upon amount and the pick lost was essentially Nix himself. Now I believe they would have exceeded the bonus pool enough to lose two first rounders so they did get off the hook for the other.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 15, 2014 14:19:59 GMT -5
Was anyone else even bidding? I didn't hear any reports to that effect and at that price it doesn't seem like it. I thought he had a 4/$65 offer out there from some team? That must have been a false rumor becuase otherwise that is a huge Yankee discount. Well whether this mystic 4 and 65 mil was a real offer or not I believe it has been reported that Houston offered a 5 and 65 mil deal.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 14, 2014 0:57:05 GMT -5
@mlbbrucelevine Source tells me Melky Cabrera agrees to three year deal with WhSox pending physical .
Add: Says it should be in 45 mil range.
Seattle had been very interested at the 3 year range as well as the O's. Honestly I am really surprised Baltimore still hasn't replaced either of Cruz or Markakis. After another playoff run they should have had the money. I don't believe they have spent much other than resigning Hardy so perhaps it's just saving up to extend any of Wieters, Machado, Davis or Tillman. Or they internally are comfortable w/ Pearce and De Aza filling the holes with the possibility of signing Delmon Young. Looks like they are sitting around $115 mil considering arbitration which would be an all time high.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 12, 2014 10:14:16 GMT -5
Hamels is a terrific pitcher. I hate trading top controllable talent like Bogaerts but Hamels is a stud for sure and we could really use him. I'd put Bogaerts in play given our rotation's ground ball emphasis and the enhancement Hamels represents. Would we be a better team with Hamel and a better fielding SS? I think that is likely at this point. Considering Hamel's salary, I don't think it will take as much as people think.
Who do the Phillies have at SS now that Rollins is a Dodger?
One of Philadelphias top prospects is JP Crawford, cousin of Carl, who could be in the bigs by 2016 or more likely by 2017. Roman Quinn is also a top 5/10 SS prospect for them as well. Even if they would get Xander they'd likely move him to 3rd or a corner OF spot within a few years.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 11, 2014 13:40:26 GMT -5
Rosenthal is saying Zach Eflin who the Dodgers received for Kemp is going to Philly with Tom Windle for Rollins. Pretty fair return for Rolins IMO.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 11, 2014 13:09:23 GMT -5
Keep in mind that Bogaerts has been training with Pedroia at Athletes Performance Institute in Arizona this offseason. My guess is they have been working with his on his first step explosiveness and his flexibility. I would not be surprised to see significant improvement in his SS defense this year. Are you saying Xander is going to be in the best shape of his life? Sorry, just find it hard to buy into the 'trained really hard in the offseason and thus will be much better this year' trope. If it were that easy, why didn't Derek Jeter ever improve his quickness? I think Bogaerts is fine defensively, but it seems something worth exploring whether you are a better team with Elite Defensive SS plus whatever Xander fetches in trade or Xander at SS. Of course the two variables (who is this mysterious elite SS and what does he cost to acquire, and what can you get for Bogaerts?) are impossible to project so I'm just asking nonsense hypotheticals. So if he says Bogaerts is training with a defensive guru this off season in preparation for next year at SS and said guru has won multiple Gold Gloves as a MLB infielder would buy into that. Isn't that essentially what this is? It goes beyond just physical workouts I imagine.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 11, 2014 12:10:36 GMT -5
Here's another thought - could Miley be a chip in a deal for Hamels or another pitcher? 3 years of control 3/4 starters. He would be a piece, not the whole thing, obviously. And Arizona knows this and is holding Boston hostage for the third prospect. Love conspiracy theories!
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Post by taftreign on Dec 11, 2014 11:19:52 GMT -5
I believe I heard on WEEI that they heard Boston might have a trade in the works for a reliever just a bit ago. Maybe just speculation.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 11, 2014 11:16:52 GMT -5
So Morosi says Tigers are working on a trade for a Reds pitcher. Additionally he is reporting Marlins are closing in on Latos. Cueto to Detroit? They are probably both after Latos Jason Beck of MLB.com tweete it's not Latos in regards to Tigers.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 11, 2014 11:05:05 GMT -5
Sign Shields as your 1 and at mid season reaccess the options among soon to be FA top end starters and minor leaguers Owens, Rodriguez, Barnes if you need to add an arm for the stretch run. I can get behind that logic even if I don't love Shields.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 11, 2014 10:59:24 GMT -5
So Morosi says Tigers are working on a trade for a Reds pitcher.
Additionally he is reporting Marlins are closing in on Latos.
Cueto to Detroit?
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Post by taftreign on Dec 11, 2014 10:49:06 GMT -5
I still hope we get 2 more top rotation guys. I would love a rotation where Porcello is my #3. One year of Porcello as your 2 and then next year he becomes your 3 isn't such a bad outcome. Sorry. Thought he had another year of control after this.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 11, 2014 10:36:28 GMT -5
I still hope we get 2 more top rotation guys. I would love a rotation where Porcello is my #3. One year of Porcello as your 2 and then next year he becomes your 3 isn't such a bad outcome.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 11, 2014 10:31:17 GMT -5
Jon Morosi reporting Tigers have a second separate trade in works with Cincinnati for a starting pitcher.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 11, 2014 10:03:34 GMT -5
Porcello is projected to make 12.2 mil in arbitration per MLBTradeRumors. So they save a few mil w Cespedes and get a young cost controlled arm. Could also signal a precursor to resigning Scherzer? Perhaps the other arm is a power arm for their bullpen. I would hope not Barnes. Maybe a Noe Ramirez, Jason Garcia or Simon Mercedes type?
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Post by taftreign on Dec 11, 2014 10:00:25 GMT -5
Porcello is projected to make 12.2 mil in arbitration per MLBTradeRumors. So they save a few mil w Cespedes and get a young cost controlled arm. Could also signal a precursor to resigning Scherzer?
Perhaps the other arm is a power arm for their bullpen. I would hope not Barnes.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 11, 2014 9:55:43 GMT -5
I've learned to take these tweets/blogs with a grain of salt but I would be shocked if Ben gave up any of those three upside prospects in addition to Rubby and Webster. I comfortable giving the two pitchers but Guerra who's been getting great reviews across the scouting community, Espinoza who they just blew there next two seasons of International budgets on or Rijo (I guess the more palatable option of the three) who looks like he could develop into something close to a league average 2nd baseman crosses my "too much" line. I agree he needs to hold his ground even if it means walking away. Arizona will come to there senses. I normally wouldn't post a comment like that, but the guy who wrote it actually runs the SBN D-Backs blog. I wouldn't expect it to be 100% accurate, but wouldn't be surprised if the general idea and some of the names are the holdup. I concur a long run team focused blog deserves more credence than teenage news breakers or random tweeters. I don't disagree Arizona is pushing for these three but I think it's getting greedy. I would be willing to give one of the three alternatives listed.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 11, 2014 9:49:58 GMT -5
So adding Porcello and Miley to Buchholz and Kelly would bring some stability to a questionable rotation. Now I imagine the search (Scherzer, think this is unlikely) or trade (Hamels, Cueto, Zimmermann . . ., more likely scenario) is on full go..
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