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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 18, 2023 11:33:12 GMT -5
We are about 3.4 million from 2nd tax level, we have two non guaranteed contracts worth about 4.5 million, not fully guaranteed till 1/10/2024 and that 6 plus million trade exception.
Just my two cents, yet could they likely wait to see about a trade before making anymore moves?
Guys like Bey and Cole Anthony fit in that salary range and it will be interesting if those teams want to pay those players. Hawks are up against tax line and Magic have 18 PGs.
I like some of these guys, I just feel we need a bigger splash type player. Trades get much harder next year.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 17, 2023 14:15:31 GMT -5
I'd say Scrubb absolutely has NBA high end traits, 6'6" SG with 6'10" wingspan and reported 40" vertical. His problem on a team like the Celtics is that what he does best, score isn't really needed. He needs to focus on D, team basketball, rebounding and hitting his open 3 point shots. If he does that he has a decent shot at maybe becoming a rotational player in time. Hardest thing in Basketball is star players in College learning to be role players in the NBA.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 17, 2023 10:12:03 GMT -5
I'm perfectly fine with this, I'm more worried about OT and backup RB. The OL was a mess last year, so far Brown basically waited to after mini camp to start training and Reiff was with backups. We also missed Harris when he went down. We could use a true power runner. Depending how camp starts I'm watching the Bengals LT they want to trade, I'm just not trading Dugger. More like Brown, Reiff or Bourne, yet let's see what happens in training camp first.
I wouldn't be against getting Elliott, he's a tough runner. He's also been a better receiver than Harris was.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 16, 2023 12:11:19 GMT -5
Anyone that wants to know how good Bloom is at judging minor league talent. Nevermind the people saying Blooms developmental plan is why DD guys are good. Once a guy reaches majors and preforms well his value sky rockets, why? Are you really using small sample sizes in Baseball to make your case? Benintendi put up 5.8 bwar over two years after we traded him, that's a very good player! Renfroe put up 2.7 bwar after we traded him, then was traded again, not DFA. Those were horrible moves by Bloom and really make you question how good he is at evaluating talent in minors of other teams. Which is crazy important given his model and the team he came from does this at a crazy high level. Does the fact that renfroe cant stick with any team long term tell you anything? It tells me Bloom wanted prospects and the Brewers had multiple young OF ready for the Majors, so they flipped him for 3 pitchers ready for majors.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 16, 2023 12:05:19 GMT -5
No they haven't. Yeah he has some good wins, his two biggest are players who were in the majors. Verdugo wasn't a prospect, he was already a good major league player. Look at the prospects he's traded for, if he's created some developmental monster who's responsible for all of DD guys, where is it for the like 20 plus guys he's traded for? Also Benintendi and Renfroe were both rather valuable pieces. This is Blooms greatest failure, along with last years trade deadline! Wong, Winckowski, and Valdez haven’t been standout contributors but they’ve all come through when needed, and more importantly, haven’t dragged the team down when called on. You might not think that’s a very impressive group, but the fact that they haven’t been able to rely on any cheap talent to come up and do what they’ve done for half a decade or more shows that it’s not trivial. The difference between your depth providing 0.9 WAR versus -1.3 WAR is the equivalent of a solid regular. And just curious, would John Schreiber count for you or do players only develop in the minor leagues? Depth is great and is very important, you just don't trade well above average regulars to get depth pieces. If you trade Benintendi you need much more than just Winckowski, now if you got 2-3 of those guys that might change things. I'm also seeing Valdez at -.4 bwar, he's fallen off a cliff after a hot start. Insert the other 20 plus guys he traded for. John Schreiber is your standard hope he puts it all together type guy that every team brings in a few every year. I'll give Bloom credit for getting him, yet minor league developmental changes didn't help him. It was big league coaches or just one of things where it was nothing more than everything finally coming together for him.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 16, 2023 11:51:38 GMT -5
No they haven't. Yeah he has some good wins, his two biggest are players who were in the majors. Verdugo wasn't a prospect, he was already a good major league player. Look at the prospects he's traded for, if he's created some developmental monster who's responsible for all of DD guys, where is it for the like 20 plus guys he's traded for? Also Benintendi and Renfroe were both rather valuable pieces. This is Blooms greatest failure, along with last years trade deadline! Who cares if Verdugo was a prospect? Renfroe was not particularly valuable. He put up a 2.5 WAR season after being DFA'd the prior year. If he had played like he has the past few months in 2022 he would have been non-tendered after the season. Benintendi was traded after a 42-game stretch where he went 18-142 with 5 XBH, and then got a season ending injury. He also was not very valuable. Neither of those trades is in the black, but there are still assets remaining, and his broader performance has been decent. This is clear from the spreadsheet. You have to give to get. If you do not give, you do not get. Anyone that wants to know how good Bloom is at judging minor league talent. Nevermind the people saying Blooms developmental plan is why DD guys are good. Once a guy reaches majors and preforms well his value sky rockets, why? Are you really using small sample sizes in Baseball to make your case? Benintendi put up 5.8 bwar over two years after we traded him, that's a very good player! Renfroe put up 2.7 bwar after we traded him, then was traded again, not DFA. Those were horrible moves by Bloom and really make you question how good he is at evaluating talent in minors of other teams. Which is crazy important given his model and the team he came from does this at a crazy high level.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 16, 2023 11:35:07 GMT -5
I thank Ramireja for taking the time, shows available talent. Yet we all know each team has their own board and it's much different. Fun exercise yet we need the Red Sox board of who they would pick if they employed this strategy.
2017 was horrible, 2018 was much better. Gave you a true star pitcher, along with multiple guys that went to college and became 1st round picks.
So you certainly need the right class and very good scouting. It would also help to have extra picks early.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 16, 2023 11:23:31 GMT -5
www.basketball-reference.com/gleague/players/s/scrubja01d.htmlWhat I like is the rebounds, assists, steals and blocks. It's really about his 3 point shooting. Great athlete, came from a prep school not a major college, so he needed time to adjust. Last game the finally played the SF from Hungary and he did well minus the TOs. Wish we got to see him for 5 games.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 15, 2023 11:35:11 GMT -5
I'd also ask about the crap load of players Bloom traded for, many close to majors. If he's created some developmental monster machine, why have those guys mostly been huge disappointments? The trade acquisitions mostly haven't been valuable, but the same goes for the guys he's traded away. Betts is the major exception, and it so happens that Verdugo and Wong are both valuable. julyanmorley's spreadsheet shows the trade record pretty well - there have been some wins and losses along the way, but Bloom's overall trade record has been fine. No they haven't. Yeah he has some good wins, his two biggest are players who were in the majors. Verdugo wasn't a prospect, he was already a good major league player. Look at the prospects he's traded for, if he's created some developmental monster who's responsible for all of DD guys, where is it for the like 20 plus guys he's traded for? Also Benintendi and Renfroe were both rather valuable pieces. This is Blooms greatest failure, along with last years trade deadline!
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 15, 2023 11:24:46 GMT -5
Yeah same with DD last few years because Cherington left a massive hole in the system with bad drafts and his international signing mess. DD last few years? He was fired in 2019. In 2018 he had Xander at $7M, Benintendi at $620K, Mookie at $10M, Devers at $550K, Eduardo Rodriguez at $2M. Add: Even JBJ at 6M in 2018 was a pretty great deal. He also had guys like Moncada, Kopech, Margot and Espinal, who became cost controlled talent, that he was able to trade away. I’m not at all bashing DD for trading those guys either, it worked! But the difference in the inherited situations is stratospheric. Having guys that are young and having talent rising up from the farm are two different things no? The last guy you mentioned was 2017 and there was no depth to help when injuries happend. The only guy you mentioned that rose up to become something in that time was Espinal. This isn’t about inherited talent of what people thought, it's about a horrible period of Cherington drafts and international signings that left no talent to rise up for a long period. DD system called horrible had a bunch of lower level younger guys do that. Cherington was good in beginning, helped by Theo left overs. Still a bunch of busts or dispointments, then he was crap. Bad drafts, basically two lost international classes because of his games. DD crap system has 3 top 100 guys in the majors, two killing it. Another one in AAA and his pitchers saving our season with all these injuries, plus many more in top 20. So DD did rather well rebuilding the system, especially considering low picks and international bonus amounts, nevermind crazy crap like Flores. As you can see with Blooms guys, it takes time and Bloom has had higher picks, slot money and international money. Year four still no players in big leagues and I'm not knocking him either. Just pointing out it takes time, Betts type guys who reach majors quickly are very rare. So you're 100% right Bloom had crap in the beginning, yet starting year 3 that changed, exploded in year 4 and should last into next year at minimum, maybe with some luck a little longer. I just feel that needed to be said, given have this board thoughts on DD. I'm not surprised, it's not the first time he's built up a farm system.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 14, 2023 20:53:06 GMT -5
Kinda disappointing summer league so far. Davison is a guy you'd hope takes a big leap, yet kinda of the same guy. Polish center hasn't done much, guy from Hungary who looked great on tape hasn't even played. Scrubb has been good at scoring, yet where are the rebounds, assists, etc. Former Jazz center had a good night, after a not good game. I think this is fair overall, but to me it looks like we stole a first round talent in Walsh in the 2nd round (plus extra picks trading down). Even if that's all we get, it's a win IMO Maybe, I think that will take time to figure out. For example Scrubb was our best player, they put him on the 2nd string, why? I'm guessing to see what Walsh could do offensively. Walsh nothing really changed for me, he's got good upside. Scrubb was easily the best player and started filling up the stat sheet the more he played. At the same time he doesn't really fill a need either. The rest was rather bad and I thought some of the guys deserved 2 way contracts and even a chance to earn a regular contract in training camp. Now it's go sign a veteran or wait till cut down day. That might be harsh given its only summer league, just not impressed.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 14, 2023 20:33:21 GMT -5
So basically the pick swap is bogus and won’t happen unless the wording is terrible in how they are describing it. Well unless you think in 2025 Dallas is worse than Detroit, Warriors or Washington. Anything possible, yet that just seem like a way to mess with fans.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 14, 2023 7:43:56 GMT -5
I'd also ask about the crap load of players Bloom traded for, many close to majors. If he's created some developmental monster machine, why have those guys mostly been huge disappointments?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 14, 2023 7:39:30 GMT -5
I think this illustrates the point that until this year he had no cost controlled impact talent rising from the farm. Right. This team is just emerging from a lost generation of prospect talent. Cherington's legacy was to open up that hole with some terrible drafting and failing to add prospects when he had the chance. That was compounded by their losing out on an entire IFA class for breaking the rules in 2016, which I believe was under Dombrowski's watch, though I don't know if he can really be blamed for it. Then Dombrowski compounded it further by trading away a bunch of prospects, and did nothing whatsoever to add to the farm system - a sin of omission more than commission.
But he did continue to draft and sign IFAs so, yes, through almost mathematical necessity, and because Bloom conspicuously hasn't traded away a bunch of prospects, now a number of guys added to the organization under Dombrowski are percolating up to the majors.
But does Dombrowski have a notably good record in this regard? The 2016 draft was pretty bad: basically only Dalbec has made it as a fringe major leaguer; Groome looks done for. 2017 looks so-so: Houck and Crawford are the assets there. 2018 was his best draft: Casas and Duran, plus Ward, Politi, and Ryan Fernandez. 2019 looks meh: they got Murphy and Walter... and Noah Song; I suppose Matthew Lugo still has a shot.
On the IFA front, his first class was lost due to rule-breaking. In 2017-18 Bello was the big catch (plus RIP Daniel Flores). In 2018-19: Wikelman, Bonaci, Paulino, and a few others, but it's too early to render judgment.
Is this an especially good record? I think it's... fine. Given some of the constraints he was working with (which included some that were self-imposed, like losing draft picks for signing free agents). But I wouldn't call it great.
I'd call it good overall, based on top 100 guys. I think where it looks better is he didn't have any bad years with high picks and more international money. Nevermind multiple trade deadlines where he could trade for prospects.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 14, 2023 7:30:50 GMT -5
Isn't it time to stop giving Bloom a pass on the farm system he acquired? DD guys are all over the majors roster and make up 8 out of our top 20 prospects. While Casas has been bad, Duran has be awesome. Where would you be pitching wise without Bello, Houck, Crawford, Murphy and Walter? Bloom is who he is, a decent GM that can make good moves, while also making crazy horrible moves. Only if you decide not to give Bloom any credit for the development of those players over the last 4 seasons. Bloom implemented a new development program when he got to the Red Sox and many of the players you mentioned improved under that program. What was this new developmental program? I'd point out the director of player development is the same guy DD promoted in 2018. The point is the system had talent, it just takes time. You can't develop players unless they have talent. So sure I'll give Bloom some credit, yet it's about time the narrative on DD changes, when if was Cherington that created this mess with a horrible group of drafts and the international mess.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 14, 2023 7:24:07 GMT -5
Isn't it time to stop giving Bloom a pass on the farm system he acquired? DD guys are all over the majors roster and make up 8 out of our top 20 prospects. While Casas has been bad, Duran has be awesome. Where would you be pitching wise without Bello, Houck, Crawford, Murphy and Walter? Bloom is who he is, a decent GM that can make good moves, while also making crazy horrible moves. I think this illustrates the point that until this year he had no cost controlled impact talent rising from the farm. Yeah same with DD last few years because Cherington left a massive hole in the system with bad drafts and his international signing mess.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 12, 2023 22:41:05 GMT -5
Isn't it time to stop giving Bloom a pass on the farm system he acquired? DD guys are all over the majors roster and make up 8 out of our top 20 prospects.
While Casas has been bad, Duran has be awesome. Where would you be pitching wise without Bello, Houck, Crawford, Murphy and Walter?
Bloom is who he is, a decent GM that can make good moves, while also making crazy horrible moves.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 12, 2023 19:19:45 GMT -5
Did the ISRAEL kid come over. He just signed a new two year deal overseas.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 12, 2023 19:19:09 GMT -5
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 12, 2023 9:30:56 GMT -5
My point was guys get picked by best available, if those guys don't get drafted 5 better players do. That's a bad thing for you? There guys are on full scholarships for Baseball, how are they switching sports? They can go to college and then enter draft. Well NBA has two rounds, not 20 and frankly that number seems crazy low, you sure that's right? Look at our top two picks, one over a million, another almost a million. That's a lot of money, plenty of guys are going to take that. Then other guys actually get some real money also. They are only doing this because they have power given the rules! So no major leaguers come after round 5? We know that's not true and again the top guys still get most of the money, not just almost all of it. I have been lurking on this board long enough to know better than to derail this thread arguing with you about something you have no interest in changing your mind about, so I’ll leave it at this post. But if you don’t understand a) how baseball, with the existence of the minor league system, is different from other sports in a draft and development sense and b) why elite amateur athletes with alternatives would begin to specialize in other sports, leading to a long-term talent drain, if they no longer had any leverage to negotiate a signing bonus then I can only conclude that you haven’t thought this through very thoroughly. I understand sports and their economics rather well. The problem with your argument about them picking other sports is that has already happened. Look at Murray with the A's. A slot system with locked in contracts isn't changing anything for the overwhelming majority of players. What you should be arguing is for so called small markets teams to stop being cheap and increasing the total amount spent on draft.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 11, 2023 16:45:35 GMT -5
I'd say the points you just brought up are exactly why it should happen. Why should only a few get most of the bonus pool? How about a guy getting 10k, spending years in minors then making the MLB? Nevermind the fact of the better players getting drafted higher as an accomplishment, not lower because they won't take 10k to sign. The fact a 5th round pick can get 10k, 11th round picks can get 150k. It's messed up and the top guys will still get way more, just not almost of the whole bonus pool. BTW NBA used to have high schoolers in the draft under the same system, Hockey does. So I don't get that point. You simple get paid based off of talent and best players get drafted in order. In your scenario, the guy who would sign for 10k probably doesn’t get drafted at all, and the guy who can no longer get an above-slot deal might focus on a different sport rather than committing to a very expensive one where he has next to no leverage to cash in on his ability anyway. Re: high schoolers in the NBA and NHL, there are a couple key differences between those and MLB. For one, only a handful of high schoolers actually got drafted in the NBA—41 total over a decade. So only the most NBA-ready high schoolers got taken, and there have been roughly 0 MLB-ready high schoolers over the past few decades. In hockey, every player signs the same entry-level contract, regardless of when they got taken. I don’t think I need to explain to a poster on a baseball prospects forum how that differs from the MLB draft and development process, so I won’t. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but a major change like that would almost certainly have enormous ramifications throughout the game that you’re just kind of hand-waiving away. The only big winners I see in your scenario are guys who are unlikely to be good enough to be impact major leaguers, but probably will be good enough to be organizational depth. My point was guys get picked by best available, if those guys don't get drafted 5 better players do. That's a bad thing for you? There guys are on full scholarships for Baseball, how are they switching sports? They can go to college and then enter draft. Well NBA has two rounds, not 20 and frankly that number seems crazy low, you sure that's right? Look at our top two picks, one over a million, another almost a million. That's a lot of money, plenty of guys are going to take that. Then other guys actually get some real money also. They are only doing this because they have power given the rules! So no major leaguers come after round 5? We know that's not true and again the top guys still get most of the money, not just almost all of it.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 11, 2023 13:46:12 GMT -5
That's the part that makes no sense, not saying your wrong. It's just those guys were basically rated where we took them. They did all this crap to reduce spending, yet players still act like it’s the old system. Only draft in major sports where teams aren't just going after best talent round after round. Time to change to NBA and Football versions, you declare you're in and the slot money is locked. Give period to declare, talk with teams and decide if they want to stay in. All this talk about fairness in minor league pay, this helps spread around bonus money to many and not just a few elite guys. Why should it work like the NBA or NFL when the player development path (not to mention the salary path) is completely different? In basketball, by age 24 a good player is probably negotiating a ten-figure salary. In baseball, by age 24 a good player is likely making the league minimum for the foreseeable future, if he’s been lucky enough to make the 40-man at all. Not to mention the whole “drafting high schoolers” aspect of it. There’s just no way they’d ever change the bonus rules to “set at slot” without sweeping changes to the league coming with it. I'd say the points you just brought up are exactly why it should happen. Why should only a few get most of the bonus pool? How about a guy getting 10k, spending years in minors then making the MLB? Nevermind the fact of the better players getting drafted higher as an accomplishment, not lower because they won't take 10k to sign. The fact a 5th round pick can get 10k, 11th round picks can get 150k. It's messed up and the top guys will still get way more, just not almost of the whole bonus pool. BTW NBA used to have high schoolers in the draft under the same system, Hockey does. So I don't get that point. You simple get paid based off of talent and best players get drafted in order.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 11, 2023 11:52:29 GMT -5
This is probably the best answer for the small vs big market stuff. Move teams from crappy markets. Hopefully Oakland going to Vegas will help but their owner could just be a cheapass so that could probably be a problem for many of the "small market" teams too. I agree about the move to Nashville (or Charlotte or even Montreal, though they'd need a domed stadium), but I contend the problem isn't the market, it's the ownership. Nashville is growing but it's still the #29 media market in the nation (Tampa is 13). Oakland is the #6 media market in the nation, Vegas is 43 and they will be depending on tourists with dozens of other attractions in the city to take away their money and time. That move will be a disaster without shrewd marketing and sophisticated appeal to year-round residents. The Oakland owner has shown zero of that ability in his current city. He's going there to pocket a few extra hundred million dollars for himself. The team is merely a subsidized financial instrument for him. Nothing more. One difference would be Vegas has mostly people from Vegas, then visitors. What percentage of Tampa is snow birds? Maybe I'm wrong, yet Florida feels like a place where people from many states go retire too. Some full-time, many others part time in winter. You see this because Yankee and Red Sox games are huge for them, showing you have more fans for other teams, than your own. It's not just about market size, it's about the people that make up that market no? Red Sox fans are born and raised in Massachusetts. All this winning by Tampa for almost 2 decades and they can't build up a fan base?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 11, 2023 11:43:42 GMT -5
Right? I don't understand a lot of those day two picks. Reminds me of Brad Stevens stockpiling 2nd round picks. A bunch of older guys who barely throw 90 and an ERA around 5.00 but I'm admitting I know nothing about any player taken in the entire draft and had only even heard of a handful. They take those guys so they can afford Zanetello and Anderson. Tanner Witt likely commands a significant overslot bonus, which the Sox could not have afforded (unless you're arguing that they take Witt instead of Anderson). I doubt they have much $$ to spend today beyond maybe one or two mid-six figure bonuses, if that. It's just the way the draft goes. That's the part that makes no sense, not saying your wrong. It's just those guys were basically rated where we took them. They did all this crap to reduce spending, yet players still act like it’s the old system. Only draft in major sports where teams aren't just going after best talent round after round. Time to change to NBA and Football versions, you declare you're in and the slot money is locked. Give period to declare, talk with teams and decide if they want to stay in. All this talk about fairness in minor league pay, this helps spread around bonus money to many and not just a few elite guys.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 11, 2023 1:54:32 GMT -5
Do you feel bad for Tampa? Two plus decades of making rules to help these so called small market teams, yeah I'm sick of that crap! Fact is no other division has a 4th place team even at .500, nevermind a last place team over .500. Move out Tampa lol, no reason they should be in AL East anyways. Well, if baseball thinks it can survive by putting its chips on the NY/BOS/LA markets, ok. But the idea of the WCs was to give more teams a chance. Realignment would be a step back. Put differently… what is in it for the Central and the West? So you tell those teams to pound sand because Boston can’t finish fourth? I say the last WC is such low hanging fruit that a team that can’t get it shouldn’t complain. How is this about NY/BOS/LA markets? It's about a team like Twinns at under .500 having a much better shot at playoffs because of their division. What's in it for them? A team that actually pushes them to play good Baseball? Yeah I think that's good for Baseball and say it's Tampa, you can't use money as an excuse right? Better yet keep your divisions, yet do it like NBA like another poster brought up.
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