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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 11, 2014 0:09:10 GMT -5
That is not even close to being true. Again, are the Red Sox trying to win games, or are they trying to develop marginal talent? They can't have it both ways. I don't think Ruby is a marginal talent. Has a high ceiling (#3 starter) and showed flashes last year that he can be a good pitcher. I think this is problem that many of the posters here have. There is a major separation between "Ceiling" and "Reasonable Projection". De la Rosa has great stuff, but in what is now a fairly large sample, he has struggled to miss bats to the level that he needs to in order to get away with his high amount of walks. Next year he is projected by Streamer to have a k% of 17% and a BB rate of 10%. That is simply put not very good. Last season in Miley's worst season he posted a k rate over 21% and BB rate of 8.7%. While that is with the benefit of facing the pitcher's spot the difference is a robust 5% and is too large to be ignored as league dependent. Everyone ought to stop dreaming, wake up and smell the coffee. Rubby will most likely not become a front end of the rotation starter. One can project fourth or fifth starter with limited durability or possible impact reliever. But to still lean on what we hoped two years ago is silly. After all there is a reason why the Dodgers included him in the deal that saw them pick up over 200 million in contract commitments.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 6, 2014 11:56:00 GMT -5
Clicked this thread thinking that maybe there were reports of Lester's agents meeting with the Sox FO in a new round of negotiations. Instead I got this.... Awesome.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 6, 2014 11:39:38 GMT -5
People like to look at all relievers who have a good season or two and lump them together to measure risk as a group. It's a mistake. They also like to look at a relievers whip and era or fip or any stat like that and draw a conclusion on how good they were. This is also a mistake. Bullpen stats do vary often times greatly from season to season because they are more volatile due to the number of innings they pitch. One or two awful innings and the stats are all skewed and won't accurately reflect the true impact on the season. There are also different talent levels. Andrew Miller was a too 5 Draft prospect in baseball. He's an elite talent. This isn't a guy with questionable ability. He's a much better bet than the majority of the other guys. There is a long track record of relievers who are great year after year, especially if you take injury years into account. I would like to preface this with the fact that I am a really big fan of Miller and in the end am not too shocked by the contract he received. I would certainly have given him a two or three year deal at this AAV so I can't criticize it too much. However, Miller is a pitcher with a lot of risk, and no it is not because he is just another reliever who stringed together a few fine season, but more because of the pitcher he is. Andrew Miller is 6'7 and has always had the potential for electric stuff. However it took him 6 years to ever get his mechanics to a place where he could tap into all of the potential. Though he has been better than the following player, I think that the following stat line is something to consider: K% - BB% - SIERRA - 29.7 10.4 2.85 25.8 10.2 3.12 25.7 8.3 2.72 13.7 15.5 5.90 That line of course is of Andrew Miller's former rotation buddy at Chapel Hill; Daniel Bard. Both had very very ugly mechanics. Both had trouble repeating their deliveries, Both had electric stuff, and both were very tall and lanky. They also both had a period where they figured things out and dominated as high leverage relievers.d Bard never suffered and debilitating injuries nor did his potential stuff disappear over night. He lost his ability to repeat his delivery. His mechanics got out whack and the velocity, break and sharpness of his amazing repertoire was gone. And he was left with nothing and has not been able to recapture it. That is a very real risk with Miller and it one that justifiably makes a 4 year deal for his services a potential landmine.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 5, 2014 11:17:20 GMT -5
Crazy to think Gregorius was the key piece going to AZ in the Trevor Bauer deal only two years ago, but that was the Kevin Towers era in AZ for you. It is even crazier to think that Robbie Ray was the headliner just last season for Doug Fister. Obviously, Fister did not enjoy his first season in DC, but you still have to wonder what in God's green earth the Tigers were thinking.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 29, 2014 11:58:31 GMT -5
I'm one that can't stand Xander's D, but will say no more. Sox have decided to go with him at ss for 2015 so I'll just root for him. Hope he rakes.
This actually raises an interesting point. How good must Xander's offensive game be in order to balance out his defensive deficiencies? Many here have rationalized the Red Sox playing Xander at shortstop to the Yankees having Derek Jeter play the position. But, I haven't seen many contend that Xander is going to be a comparable offensive player to Derek Jeter. And, if they were to, on what basis would they make such a bold comparison? To date, Xander's offensive game has compared more to that of Brandon Crawford. But, of course, Crawford is the far superior defensive player.
Wow this is getting frustrating. Xander's defense last year according to UZR/150 (though I am of the opinion that year to year UZR stats mean little - and that what is useful is to look at a three year sampling) would have ranked as one of Jeter's BEST (I can't believe you guys are making me use all caps) seasons and almost twice as good as a typical Jeter season for the 10 or so years where UZR data was available (So not including 1996-2001). Of Course Derek Jeter was not a good defensive shortstop, that was not the argument. The argument was that despite being a well below average defensive player, Jeter still was an excellent player for many seasons. If we take these UZR numbers at face value, and IF we un-bunch our panties and stop freaking out that Xander had the audacity to struggle in his age 21 (Brandon Crawford spent his age 21 season playing in rookie ball) what we are left with is a guy who is below average defensively at the most premium position on the field, whose projected peak is to hit about 20-30% better than the average hitter. Even if he settles in as a negative 5 UZR at shortstop, he would still be a 4- 5 win player.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 27, 2014 17:41:38 GMT -5
From 2002to 2010 Derek Jeter put up over 42 fwar. The -3.7 uzr/150 that Xander put up last year would have been the the fouth best defensive season of that stretch.
If Xander hits as everyone believes that he can, all of this is pointless. Being slightly below average defensively is far far from being a fatal flaw.
Edit: I left out the - because I typed my response on a phone. Though the context of my post really ought to have made it clear that we were talking about a negative UZR.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 21, 2014 1:36:11 GMT -5
I'm not a Panda fan. I think he has value in the short term, but the end of his deal could prove to be a big problem. I really love the idea of bringing back Beltre. Texas might be inclined to deal him since their top prospect is a 3rd baseman. Not sure what it'd take to get him, but he'd be a great addition to the lineup and defensively as long as he doesn't cost the farm. I know I'm probably in the minority here, but I'm not all that interested in Tulo. His away splits are pretty scary. I know he is in the NL West with some large parks, but still makes me nervous. Obviously, his defense is spectacular, and he wouldn't be awful at the plate, but probably wouldn't be worth the big time prospects it'd take to land him. . Not to pick on you specifically as I have seen this mentioned several times now, but there is no way that Texas would hand the third base job to a guy who struck out in 40% of his plate appearance in AA. Joey Gallo is likely the most over-hyped prospect in baseball. Don't get me wrong; I think he is a very good prospect, but people are getting way too entranced with power and are not honestly questioning his hit skill. Also that second part should be nominated for understatement of the year. Tulo had a 126 WRC+ away from Coors last season. And his career WRC+ differential is only -14 away from Home. His bat plays anywhere on the diamond yet alone at Short. The only question is and will always be his health.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 17, 2014 20:39:05 GMT -5
Sign: Jon Lester for 6/132 James Shields for 4/90 Yoan Moncada for 40 million pre tax.
Trade: Cespedes / Joe Kelly / Brian Johnson / Wendel Rijo for Cole Hamels & Jon Papelbon
Lineup: Betts - CF Pedroia - 2B Ortiz - DH Napoli - 1B Castillo - RF Xander - SS Nava / Craig platoon- LF Cechhini - 3b Vazquez - Catcher
Bench: Victorino Craig Butler Holt
Rotation: Jon Lester Cole Hamels James Shields Clay Bucholz - Assume no more than 120 IP Rubby De la Rosa - Assume about 150 IP Battle Royale between AA & AAA SP depth to fill the gaps
Bullpen: Closer - Koji Relief Ace - Jon Papelbon Relief Ace 2 - Tazawa Edward Mujica Allan Webster Tommy Layne Brandon Workman
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 9, 2014 12:17:50 GMT -5
I think more than anything else that this chart does highlight the fact that the skill level between "Very solid mid rotation guy" and "front end of the rotation" is not the giant gulf that some believe it to be. I have always been of the opinion that an Ace is a guy who you expect to be in the conversation for Cy Young each year, while a number 2 or even number 3 can always end up in that conversation without any huge surprise. For me Anibal Sanchez always comes to mind. Sanchez has had several years where he was a very good #2 (I define as XFIP - : 81-94) however two years ago for some unexplained reason his K rate shot up from his career norm of around 20% to 27% and he posted an XFIP- of 74. He of course is not that guy, and to point to that season and to call him an ace is silly, but it underlies that player performance can fluctuate.
With that said, the above list has guys who are not aces:
Jake Arrieta is a fine starter, but his success last season was in large part driven a huge decrease in HR/FB rate. His fly bat rate did decrease nominally and he did see a slight uptick in IFFB% but it is incredibly doubtful that he will ever minimize HRs to the degree that he did last season (4.5% HR/FB).
Harang had a long and successful career, highlighted by a four year run from 2004 - 2008 in which he posted XFIP - of 92,85,80, & 95.
Dallas Keuchel has one season of an XFIP - of 85, that is a solid number 2 but not an ace.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 2, 2014 12:31:21 GMT -5
The dude last season only struck out 5.76 batters per nine last season while almost walking 4 per nine. I don't know how one gets hosed when the player they trade is so abjectly awful.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 26, 2014 0:39:28 GMT -5
I thought Billy Beane robbed us on Lester given the historic return on ace pitchers at deadline, however the market had been deflated..I like the return on Lackey much more given his age, attitude and Kelley's stuff. You can't compare the deadline deals of one season with those from another. This season their were not many active buyers and three front end of the Rotation pitchers traded. Compounding the problem was that those teams who were buyers were not in desperate situations and viewed Lester and Price as luxuries. The Tigers already had an excellent rotation before they acquired Price, the Dodgers who were rumored to be interested seemed content with Kershaw, Grienke, Ryu, & Becket, the Cardinals wanted an upgrade but were not willing to part with Taveras, and the Orioles were steamrolling the East, while the A's who obviously acquired Lester already had a rather formidable rotation. Lester was the second best pitcher available, but he also had the least remaining time of club control. The best Pitcher who has a whole year of control remaining also failed to return any possible star level players (I like Smyly but he is at best a #3 and more likely a very solid #4). The only way we could have gotten a premium return was if we traded Lester early like the Cubs did with Shank. However, there was so much uncertainty at the time it was not really an option either. So lets take our 3 win player and draft pick and stop whining about it. Maybe we flip Cespedes in a package for Cueto or Iwakuma, maybe we resign Lester. We cant cherry pick what may have happened in 2003 and say that it applied to 2014. *Edit - I did forget to mention the Pirates. But we don't know whether or not their front office had an aversion to dealing for a player they had no chance of resigning.*
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Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 21, 2014 7:37:37 GMT -5
If the Mariners played in a neutral park Cespedes for Iwakuma would make sense. However with Safeco being the very worst park for Right Handed Power hitters, I can't see them having much interest in Yoenis. He would be terrible there.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 5, 2014 18:26:42 GMT -5
Ryan Howard has been worth negative WAR over the past three seasons and he is owed 60 million over two years (his 2017 option has a 10 million dollar buyout).
The reason why Hamels is an attractive option is that he costs only slightly more than 22 million a season for the next 5 years. Adding Howard to that negates all the appeal as his effective cost would now be over 32 million a year. We would be better of just signing Scherzer and keeping the prospects to trade for a third basemen.
Now if we could get the Phillies to add Maikel Franco to that deal, I would gladly take Howard's contract and send them something like Ranaudo, Barnes, Cechhini, Coyle. But I can't imagine Amaro doing that as it would be completely unproductive.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 5, 2014 12:49:24 GMT -5
You know that you can continue reading the thread and see that there was already a very well made argument made by jmei about the lineup protection myth as it related to 2014 David Ortiz. If you did you would see an adult conversation that ended with the poster who initially made that comment now aware of the fact that "Protection" is really a questionable and hardly provable thing and even thanking Jmei for his responses. Or you could not..... Whatever floats your boat, I guess.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Sept 27, 2014 9:53:35 GMT -5
Brock Holt is a great story. At best a legit Utility Player. 540 OPS second half of the season doesn't fair well as a starter at any position. WM is 26. The days of waiting on this player are over. Time to move on. He had several chances to put it all together. With a solid pipeline at 3B with GCech, Devers whose projected as a 3B and a steady JBetts climbing the ladder next season plus Free Agency and trade market, say good bye Will. Disagree. Middlebrooks has very little trade value, it doesn't seem logical to deal him this off season unless some team values him much higher than (I assume) most do. I see this line entire "don't trade player x while his value is down" or "hey we should trade player y while his value is up" thrown around here all of the time, and I have to say that it seems like one of the silliest misconceptions that are out there. Let's take WMB as an example, if we were to decide to keep him so that he could recoup some of his value what are the costs? First, if we decide to let him break camp with the Red Sox there is the very real likelihood that he is awful again and is black hole in our line-up for the 150 - 200 pa's that he would likely be given before his demotion. However, I know your preference is to send him to AAA. Ok that sound great and all, but first he must be kept on the 40 man (one less player gets to be protected - probably not a great prospect but someone like Sean Coyle) and he creates a positional logjam in that you now have one milb roster spot taken by a guy who you are no longer interested in developing. Additionally, if he is your starting AAA 3bman, he is most definitely the first guy to be called up in case of a emergency. However lastly and most importantly, what does WMB have to do at this point to change the perceptions that almost all MLB front offices have of him at this point? If he is in AAA and by June is sporting an OPS of .920, how many teams are going to be knocking down the door for him? I have to say that I find it doubtful that front offices make or change their impressions on players whom they have extensive knowledge on just based on a months in the minors.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Sept 21, 2014 16:18:08 GMT -5
I would like to attempt to steer this discussion into a more interesting direction. To do this lets first just ignore every post made by Bryce up to this point and additionally not even consider Jay Bruce as a possible acquisition.
Jay Bruce had been a good hitter (not nearly great) hitter for 4 consecutive seasons in which he posted WRC+’s between 117 and 124 and looked to be a solid a 3-4 win player (I am throwing out the -3.1 BSR value from 2012 because that to me does not pass the sniff test, but if someone more knowledgeable than myself could shed some light that would be welcomed).
However, this year he has been lousy. His WRC+ is a putrid 75 (so he would fit in perfectly on the 2014 Sox) and his ISO has dipped below .150 and without his power Bruce is really not a worthwhile hitter as his hit skill has always been suspect.
One concern that jumps right off the bat is that this is the third straight season in which his BB% has decreased and his k% has risen. However with that being said, his 2014 BB% of 8.4% is solid and his 27.4 k% is bad but not terrible and neither explains why his ISO has dipped so much.
Looking at the batted ball data it appears that his GB% has shoot up dramatically. Never has he had a GB/FB ratio of 1 or higher, but this season it was 1.39. (It is worth noting though that it had increased two years running prior as well but not at this level) During Bruce’s best years his FB% was between 40-45 %, this year it was just 34%. To further worsen matters is the fact that is that his HR/FB has dipped as well. The only statistical explanation I have for this change is that he has been chasing more pitches out of the zone. His Zswing % was 4% higher this year than last, and interestingly his OSwing % is actually down by 6%.
So is it this trend of swing at more balls and taking more strikes that caused this awful season? Can it be fixed? Is this caused by a departure from sound plate discipline and approach or is it the result of a degradation of skill?
I won’t pretend that I know the answer to that. But what I do know is that there is now way in hell any team would have two players like that (Craig obviously being the other) on the roster to start the season.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Sept 13, 2014 11:13:58 GMT -5
I have been beating the Heyward drum for a long time now. If we can get him for a package around Ownes, Bradley, Webster with some supplemental pieces then I am all in. However if the cost will include one of Betts, Xander, Swihart, or MArgot (yes I'm crazy) then I walk away with the already 6 outfielders that we have. At the end of the day, while he does make us better now and in the future, I believe that we only move one of those prospects for a guy who can transform our lineup.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Aug 5, 2014 15:14:34 GMT -5
Seems pretty unlikely that Turner will clear the entire national league unclaimed, and even if he did doesn't really seem to make a lot of sense for the Sox to give up a ton to acquire him given the plethora of young, unproven arms they already have. It is certainly possible that he does not get to us, but there is no way that whoever ends up grabbing him will need to give that much in ways of talent to acquire him. I'm thinking that at most, he could be had for someone like Sean Coyle.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Aug 5, 2014 13:58:36 GMT -5
Obviously we already have an impressive stockpile of arms in the high minors, but apparently the Miami Marlins just DFA'd a 23 year old former first round draft pick who in 78 MLB innings this season posted a FIP of 4 and an XFIP just under.
I think that its safe to say that the future ace Jacob Turner train has been derailed, but there is a lot of talent there that is backed up by some moderate recent success. Would it make sense to attempt to acquire him for ptbnl and add him in the mix for the rest of the season?
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Post by sdiaz1 on Aug 1, 2014 12:36:32 GMT -5
For the remainder of the season, I would like to see Rubby and Webster continue to get starts while also finding opportunities for Steven Wright and Anthony Ranaudo as well. Workman on the other hand has not done anything this year to inspire confidence in his ability to start. I would put him back in the pen, where his stuff plays up and see if he can become a late inning rhrp.
During the offseason, I would advocate Boston flexing their new financial flexibility to sign Lester to something in the ballpark of 7/155 and James Shields to somewhere around 4/80. That would leave us with the following entering 2015:
Lester Shields Odd Year Clay Bucholz Kelly Rubby De La Rosa
You would need to keep some of the depth we have accumulated (Owens, Ranaudo, Barnes, Escobar, Johnson, Diaz)but I would not hesitate to use that depth in addition to guys like Bradley, WMB, or even Swihart to either acquire a dynamic young outfielder like Jayson Heyward, Mike Stanton, or even possibly Jorge Soler.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Jul 28, 2014 1:09:31 GMT -5
When I said "prospect" I didn't mean literally. I just don't think he's one to keep tabs on daily. It's a phrase that I see Law use ("not a prospect"), but admittedly I know it sounds harsh and I'm not big on Law to begin with. I didn't think he was promising at the time he was drafted either though, so I'm not basing this off of one bad month. His approach has been worse than advertised and he's likely making hard contact but not for power. Aside from an impressive contact rate, he's been pretty unimpressive. He's a guy with college experience and a filled out frame and he's posting close to average 1B offensive numbers in A- ball. Given the fact that his bat is going to have to carry him to the big leagues, it doesn't look good for him right now. Obviously anything can happen, he could be the next great Boston 1B. I'm not saying we shouldn't have taken him either. He's just not one to get excited about at this point. Let me get this straight: So other than the fact that he has shown an ability to make frequent hard contact, he has been pretty disappointing. You do realize that A) an offense first prospect's most important tool is their hit skill, which you just rated as plus and B) that as 20 year old in short season ball both his power and plate discipline should be in need of further development and projection. Honestly, I do not know a whole lot about Sam Travis other than reports about him prior to the draft, scouting reports filed by the staff here and his stat page, all of which is limited seeing as how he has only about a month of playing time in affiliated ball. Because of this I would be foolish to label him as anything rather than an interesting guy with a solid pedigree and skills that made him a consensus top 100 draft prospect. I know we all love to have opinions and such, but unless one is major league scout assigned the NYPL, then any opinion you have is incredibly limited and imperfect. Is it cool to express concern that he is drawing so few walks? Of course. But to substantively label him as a non-prospect is cockamamie drivel.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Jul 27, 2014 22:20:57 GMT -5
Am I crazy for thinking that Joey Gallo is being insanely over rated by these publications? Yes he has 80 power, and yes he is very young for AA and is currently having success, but the guy is striking out in 42% of his plate appearances. I don't care how prodigious your power is, if you strike out at that rate there is really no way to sustain success in any level of organized ball.
This is not saying that he is not a good prospect, but to declare him elite, while he has such a glaring weakness seems absurd.
It should be noted that while 170 PA's is a rather small sample it is more than enough for k rates to normalize.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Jul 15, 2014 12:35:55 GMT -5
As someone who would be thrilled if we could turn Gomes into Selman and Adam. I am curious as to why you are down on Jason Adam? Yes he is repeating a level and yes his ERA is high, but he is still on 23 (he actually is turning 23 in about 2 weeks) his peripherals are fine ( over 8K/9 and 2.80BB/9) and his FIP is a very solid 3.51.
Honestly as someone who admittedly knows very little about the Royals farm system, it seems like Adam may be a guy that is suffering from pitching in front of bad defenses. This is his second year running with a strand rate barely over 60% (60.4% in '13 and 61.8% in '14) and a sizable difference between his ERA and FIP.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Jun 26, 2014 16:37:41 GMT -5
Seeing that he is sporting an awesome 34 WRC+. I bet that Jedd Gyorko is pretty happy that he risked leaving some money on the table when he signed his extension as a hedge against underperformance.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Jun 24, 2014 12:31:42 GMT -5
The problem with your proposal is that it could very well create an adversarial relationship between Boagaerts (and his representatives) and the Front Office. If you hope offer him a mutually beneficial extension before he becomes arb eligible, a tactic like this may make him unwilling to do so.
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